Mount Merapi volcanic eruption and Mentawai earthquake

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Merapi

Merapi, a volatile volcano located at the northernmost border between Yogyakarta and Central Java. The name Merapi cames from Old Javanese term "Meru" which mean mountain and "Api" which mean fire. So the term Merapi itself means Mountain of Fire. Its legend of eruption starts from 1006 AD (120 AD?) when the collapse of Old Merapi volcano killed as much as 3000 lives. The New Merapi then growing and erupting with short pause. Merapi is an basic-intermediate volcano which height is 2968 m. It started to grow from the floor of ocean circa 700,000 years ago. At that time, just like another oceanic volcanoes its lava is basaltic. This basic basaltic lava created a broad base of Old Merapi volcano which is now visible as hilly terrain of Western Boyolali regency. After the collapse of Old Merapi, its characteristics change. Its lava then "more acidic" and has higher viscosity. This filled the big caldera left by the Old Merapi rapidly.

Merapi's eruption has its own characteristic. It grows a lava dome before an eruption. The lava dome's growth fasten rapidly when the lava is near the earth surface, thus it indicates the the D day of eruption will not wait any longer and villagers living 5 km from Merapi's summit must be evacuated, especially those who live in southern flank. On the eruption day, the lava dome collapses and pyroclastic flow roll down its flank (mostly southern flank). After the lava dome collapsed, then glimmers of lava emanate from its summit. If rain with amount more than 50 mm occurs when Merapi erupt, then lahar will flood many creeks up to 10 kilometers away from its source and threaten many sand-miners of Sleman Regency.

Also, some people living in the flank of Merapi could hear a "harmonic noise" created by magma finding its path to the earth surface a couple weeks before its eruption day. They called this sound as "Jathilan Song" and they have to run down from Merapi flank rapidly after hearing the noise.

This 2010 eruption have predicted by me one month before (September). It was a morning when i went to Jakarta from Klaten, my ancestors' town. I see that Merapi looked unusual: it spewed more smoke than it does on ordinary days.

"Hi dad.."

"What's wrong?", said my dad.

"I'm sure that Merapi will erupt this year"

"How can you said that?", my father replied me with confusion.

"See its smoke. That's all."

Entire people inside my car keep silent.

Then I posted my prediction on Merapi at the end of September and the early October. Everyone commented on my post with confusion. To reduce wrong interpretation of my post and gossips, i delete that post hastily.

OCTOBER 26, 2010, 17.02 GMT+7

Blarr! The sound of swiftly-rolling (200 km/h) hot (800 K) pyroclastic cloud of Mount Merapi signed the start of its eruption. After bulging 42 cm a day before, its summit lava dome finally collapse and spewed hot cloud to the South flank. It killed 31 lives in Kinahrejo and Umbulharjo community.

OCTOBER 27, 2010

Merapi's ash cloud is blown to West (because of Westerly Wind above the PBL which is common in tropical area), disrupting train in Purworejo, Central Java province by putting ash on railway switcher, causing it to fail. Ash is also reported to fall in Ciamis, West Java, some 250 km away from Merapi.

OCTOBER 30, 2010

For the second time, Merapi started its new episode of explosive eruption on October 30, 2010 at 12.16 - 12.34 AM GMT+7. In this second explosive eruption, the ash plume reached the height of 3,5 KM and rain of sand fell in Sleman Regency of Yogyakarta. Ash from second eruption disrupted aircraft transportation in Adisucipto Airport of Yogyakarta, causing it to be closed from 12 PM up to 02 PM GMT+7. Also, a plane departing from Adisumarmo airport of Surakarta was serviced in Hang Nadim airport of Batam because of ash from Merapi filthed its machines and body. Until the time this article written, there are 78 times of material collapse, 27 times of multiphase earthquake, once shallow volcanic earthquake and 3 times of deep volcanic earthquake.

OCTOBER 31, 2010

Pyroclastic cloud happened twice, the first is at 02.45 p.m. and the second 03.15 p.m (GMT+7). Each of them happened as long as 10 minutes. Those times' pyroclastic flows is directed to east and south east.

Until November 4, 2010, Merapi still emit pyroclastic clouds and rain of sand still happened in Magelang (since upper level wind is directed to West). Cold lahar has arrived at the city of Yogyakarta at November 3, 2010.

on November 5, 2010, Dangerous Zone of Merapi was broaden up to 20 km from its crater. At 12.45 AM, a bang was heard 30 km away followed by huge fireball emanating from Merapi's summit and after that, rain of stones fell in Merapi's flank. Ash plume's height was 9 km, thus 41 flights from Adisucipto Airport of Yogyakarta is cancelled. Also, lightning flashes lit the city of Muntilan on the northwestern Merapi flank. At 03.00 AM, the village of Argomulyo (17 km from crater) was swept by pyroclastic cloud. At noon, Ash and dust fell as far as Bandung (320 km from Merapi). Inhabitants of Yogyakarta is prohibited to approach the area 300 meters surrounding the River Code because of cold lahar. Refugees in Yogyakarta has been moved to the provincial capital and its surroundings.

By November 5, 2010 afternoon, the ash from Merapi has reached Puncak, Bogor (400 km from Merapi).

2010 eruption of Merapi Data

VEI : 4 (the worst eruption since 1872)

Volume of Ejecta: 100 million cubic meters

Type of eruption : Explosive

Lava type : Andesitic (intermediate)

Evacuated: 100,000+ inhabitants

Victims: 109 inhabitants.

Characteristic of ash: slippery because of high content of Silica and fractions of Obsidian stones.

MASTER MARIJAN

Javanese culture is full of supernatural things, including there in geophysics circumstances. In Javanese culture, upcoming geophysics phenomena could be mitigated by the coming of a "holy dream" to the "holy man", in which the dream tells him about how affecting is the phenomenon to the people. The "holy man" then tells the people to be ready for the phenomenon. One of this "holy man" is Master Marijan or Master Penewu Suraksohargo (Old Javanese noble man title meaning "A master which lead some communities that can retain his nobelity"). He is the caretaker of Merapi volcano from 1983 up to his death (aged 83) in his prayer when pyroclastic cloud swept his house on October 26, 2010. He is well known by the Indonesians because of his debut in 2006 Eruption of Merapi volcano. He was refused to be evacuated and said that 2006 eruption is not harmful and prove it by climb the mountain and went back with no injury. Starting from that time, he signed some contracts with TV programs and advertisements.

Master Marijan died in his charge "keeping the Merapi" and his loyality to his holiness KingHamengku Buwono X (Old Javanese term meaning "the Manajer of the World") of Yogyakarta. He has knew that Merapi will erupt this 2010 a couple of weeks before October 26, and also knew that this 2010 eruption will swept away his house because a triangular stone capping a lava dome is lost. He has asked many people to run down from Merapi flank. Some people died at the eruption are the ones who was refused to run down because they want to accompany the Master. When the condition of Merapi goes eerie, evacuators ask Master Marijan to run down quickly, but he said that he will run down if the king asked him to do so because of his loyality to the king.

At the time of sunset on October 26, the king asked Master to run down because the condition of Merapi is very eerie. But the Master said, "I want to do the 5th prayer first. Please wait." The pyroclastic flow swept his house when he was praying. His corpse is found in the kitchen at the position of prostrating.

As a caretaker of Merapi Volcano and a noble man in Yogyakarta Kingdom, Master Marijan has some restrictions. The restrictions are: He should not has luxurious living, Do some meditations, Loyal to the king, and Do strict fastings. This restrictions are intended for him to get closer to the nature of Merapi Volcano.

PREDICTION

I hope that Merapi eruption lasts no longer than 2 - 3 weeks (around November 10- 20, 2010). Though the pressure of Merapi still stored in magma chamber, but it has an outlet today, so the pressure of eruption could be reduced and flow constantly outside until the volcano reach stability.

VIDEO OF MERAPI ERUPTION SEEN FROM BOYOLALI

(narration in Indonesian)

Mentawai Earthquake and Tsunami

Seismogram display on Mentawai Earthquake at Bukit Timah Seismogram, Singapore

Tsunami Wave simulation video

Latest Info:

427 Victims

Magnitude of Earthquake is 7.7 M

Tsunami Height is 10 metres

Modified Mercalli Intensity perceived: VII

STS 133 LAUNCH DELAYED as hydrogen leak problem pops up.NEXT LAUNCH OPPORTUNITY ON NOV 30 2010

ABOVE-

THE GROUND UMBILICAL CARRIER PLATE WHERE HYDROGEN LEAK PROBLEM HAS BEEN DISCOVERED DURING TANKING

SPACE SHUTTLE DISCOVERY'S LAUNCH HAS BEEN DELAYED(SCRUBBED ) AS MISSION MANAGERS DISCOVERED A HYDROGEN LEAK PROBLEM at the a the Ground Umbilical Carrier Plate, or GUCP (pronounced GUP).

SIMILAR PROBLEM HAD SCRUBBED LAUNCH OF STS 119 AND 127

During the process of filling the external tank, the hydrogen leak was detected at the GUCP, an attachment point between the external tank and a 17-inch pipe that carries gaseous hydrogen safely away from Discovery to the flare stack, where it is burned off.

NEXT LAUNCH OPPORTUNITY IS ON 30TH NOV 2010

DISCOVERY IS "GO" FOR LAUNCH TODAY

METD WEATHER has issued a Weather Forecast of Kennedy Space Center,FL for Friday,Nov 5 2010

Launch is targeted for 0304PM EDT (1904PM GMT)

As per the forecast, 70% ACCEPTABLE WEATHER is there with primary concern of some winds and very very less chance of rains during the launch window...

To see the forecast click here

NASA has given "GO" for tanking.

Close range images from Comet Hartley-2

Nasa's EPOXI spacecraft has made a successful encounter with Comet Hartley 2 completing 425 mile fly to the comet's nucleus. RAW images of low resolution have just been downlinked by the spacecraft and here is the image of Comet Hartley's nucleus and jets.

High resolution images are now available above

2] space shuttle discovery launch delayed

As expected, Launch of discovery was waved off on Thursday due to bad weather at KSC. Next launch opportunity which looks in good shape is on 0304PM EDT on 5th Nov 2010!

Be sure to check Weather update @ METD WEATHER in few hours!

Technical flaws delays Discovery launch. Launch not possible on 4th Nov due to bad weather

A problem relating to circuit breaker in Space Shuttle discovery's cockpit has delayed Space shuttle discovery launch by 24hrs on official count

Earlier targeted to launch at 0352PM EDT on Nov 3, the launch now targeted for Nov 4 at 0329PM EDT

BUT BUT BUT

As mentioned in the previous weather relating post,

Weather at Kennedy Space center on Thursday,4th Nov is going to be really bad with Chance of thunderstorms,lightning and 90% above chance of rains. So I bet NASA will have to look for Nov 5,Friday for a launch when weather is expected to remain excellent with some cloud cover.

METD makes a 70% NO GO for launch on 4th

so its a 48hr LAUNCH DELAY due to bad weather

METD WEATHER CALLS FOR A 66-70% ACCEPTABLE CONDITIONS FOR LAUNCH OF SPACE SHUTTLE DISCOVERY

VIA-

METD WEATHER BLOG

www.metdweather.blogspot.com

FOR MORE DETAILS ON WEATHER AT KENNEDY SPACE CENTER DURING LAUNCH AND LANDING PERIOD

VISIT METD WEATHER BLOG

Space Shuttle Discovery is all set for its Final Launch on Nov 03 2010 at 0352PM EDT(19:52PM GMT)

Discovery on its mission STS 133 will carry Permanent Multipurpose module Leonardo and thrid of fourth ExPRESS Logistics carrier to ISS,Robonaut 2,Space X Dragon eye sensor,

This is Space Shuttle Discovery's 39th space flight and 35th flight to ISS. Discovery will land back on 14th Nov 2010

Below is the weather forecast for NOV 3 2010

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

CONCERNING - WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR LAUNCH OF SPACE SHUTTLE DISCOVERY ON STS 133 MISSION FROM KENNEDY SPACE CENTER,FL LAUNCH PAD 39A

LAUNCH COMMIT CRITERIA FOR SPACE SHUTTLE AS PREPARED BY NASA

1] TEMPERATURE

1] TANKING WILL NOT BEGIN IF 24HR TEMPERATURE has been BELOW 41F (5C) AT MINIMUM OR ABOVE 99F

THE 24HR MIN TEMP ON 2-3NOV WILL BE AROUND 18-19C WHICH MEANS TANKING WILL BE PERMITTED AND MAX WILL BE AROUND 26C. (84F)

SO FROM WEATHER POINT OF VIEW, TANKING IS "GO"

2] the temperature is lower than the prescribed minimum value for longer than 30 minutes unless sun angle, wind, temperature and relative humidity conditions permit recovery. The minimum temperature limit in degrees F. is specified by the table below and is a function of the five minute average of temperature, wind and humidity. The table becomes applicable when the observed temperature reaches 48 degrees. In no case may the Space Shuttle be launched if the temperature is 35 degrees or colder.

Wind Speed	Relative Humidity
(kts)	0-64%	65-74%	75-79%	80-89%	90-100%
0 - 1	48	47	46	45	44
2	47	46	45	44	43
3	41	41	41	40	39
4	39	39	39	39	38
5 - 7	38	38	38	38	38
8 - 14	37	37	37	37	37
>14	36	36	36	36	36

The above table can be used to determine when conditions are again acceptable for launch if parameters have been out of limits for thirty minutes or less. If longer than thirty minutes, a mathematical recovery formula of the environmental conditions is used to determine if a return to acceptable parameters has been achieved. Launch conditions have been reached if the formula reaches a positive value.

THE ABOVE RULE [2] DOESN'T APPLY AS MIN AND MAX TEMP AT LAUNCH TIME ARE WITHIN THE ACCEPTABLE WINDOW

3] WINDS

RULE- TANKING WILL NOT BEGIN IF THE WIND FORECAST OR ACTUAL IS OVER 42KT FOR NEXT 3HRS

FORECAST- WIND SPEED IS GOING TO REMAIN NEAR 7-9KT DURING THE LAUNCH WINDOW.

FORECAST SAYS "GO" FOR TANKING

RULE- WIND AT LAUNCH VARIES FROM MISSION TO MISSION

4] LIGHTNING

RULE- LIGHTNING AND ELECTRIC FIELD WITH TRIGGERING POTENTIALS ARE NOT ALLOWED

IF FORECAST IS FOR 20% CHANCE OF LIGHTNING THEN TANKING WILL NOT BEGIN

WITHIN 5NM OF LAUNCH PAD, THE ONE MINUTE AVERAGE OF ELECTRIC INTENSITY MUST REMAIN BETWEEN +1KV/M TO -1KV/M

VALUES EXCEEDING THIS LIMIT ARE NOT ALLOWED

FORECAST

The forecast doesn't call for a thunderstorm with lightning potentials and strong electric intensity

So tanking is go from this point of view

5] PRECIPITATION

NOT ALLOWED AT LAUNCH PAD OR AROUND THE LAUNCH PAD

FORECAST- FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30% CHANCE OF RAINS AT LAUNCH WINDOW PERIOD AT KENNEDY SPACE CENTER,FL AND ACCUMULATION AROUND 1"

FORECAST WILL VERY ON THE LAUNCH DAY .

METD WEATHER FORECASTS- ITS A "GO OR NO GO" DECISION AND WILL BE BEST DECIDED ON THE LAUNCH DAY SEEING THE RADAR

6] CLOUD CEILING

RULE- DIRECT OBSERVATION OF SPACE SHUTTLE IS REQUIRED FOR FIRST 8000FT

SO CLOUD CEILING SHOULD BE ABOVE 8000FT

Forecast- Forecast calls for some low clouds of ceiling around 3000ft

The thickness of the clouds is expected to be low and might favor for a launch as in this case, clouds must be light

IN ALL,

METD WEATHER FORECASTS CALLS FOR A 66-70% ACCEPTABLE CONDITIONS AT THE LAUNCH TIME AS AROUND 4 RULES OUT OF 6 PROMINENTLY ARE ACCEPTABLE. NASA CALLS FOR A 70% FAVORABLE CHANCE WHICH IS NEAR TO METD WEATHER'S VALUE

** 30% UNACCEPTABLE CONDITIONS DUE TO LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD CEILING PROBLEM.

** GO OR NO GO FOR LAUNCH WILL BE BETTER DECIDED FEW HOURS TO THE LAUNCH SEEING THE RADAR

Solving the Grandfather paradox

Time travel has always fascinated me and has led me to think like anything since last year.

Concept of time travel is opposed by many paradox and prominently is Grandfather paradox.

Grandfather paradox first introduced by Rene Barjavel in the year 1943 in his book "The Imprudent Traveller"

The paradox says that if someone builds a time machine and goes in past and kills his own biological grandfather who is young and doesn't have children then in future, how are you born ???

This is a paradox and it explains two events connected with each other like killing grandfather and that person not taking birth

It is indeed complicated to solve this problem but the more appropriate solution seems to be different in my opinion

Since the first article I wrote on this blog on Nov 2008, I have been a firm believer that if a person happens to travel back in time and see his grandfather, he will not be able to kill him even if he fires the bullet.

Explanation,( in my views)

A person belonging to 21st century, travels back to 20th century i.e from 2010 to 1934 when his grandfather was very small and didn't have any children. He visits his grandpa's house and sees him of young age, perhaps younger than him. If the grandson decides to kill his grandfather and lifts up a pistol and fires then the bullet will not kill grandpa. Even the bullet will not come outside the pistol in that world. Reason is the bullet,grandson and all belong (born in late period i.e 21st century ). The grandson will just see his grandpa but he will not be able to talk with him,touch him and do any interaction with him. Its similar to a person peeping through a window of a house without the notice of the hose owner.

If time machine is created then people will be able to travel back in time and space but their time travel and presence will not affect daily life of people living in past.

So if a girl is working in kitchen and her grandsons make a time travel from future into the past, girl will not be able to see the grandsons and everything would be normal. Grandsons will see their grandma working in the kitchen but would not talk

In my opinion, another paradox arises

If the girl doesn't marry and doesn't have children then who will travel in time to see her claiming as grandson. So if I decide to travel in future and see my son's daughter then I might not do so since I don't have any child yet and if have don't know whether my son will have a daughter. HE MIGHT HAVE A SON

So is there any restriction in time travel?

Yes, if time travel becomes possible, then their will be restriction. You can't go anywhere in space and time as you wish. You can travel in past because you have some idea who your grandfather was but have no idea who your grandson will be

Possible M class flare from Sunspot 1117,Likely Small Geomagnetic storm on earth on 29-30 OCT

SEVERE SOLARWX

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

As seen in the SOHO coronagraph,

A bright object is passing infront of the earth facing side of the Sun. That bright object is Planet Venus!. Venus is making a pass between Earth and Sun and will continue to appear on the Coronagraph for the next few days. Also seen in the above image is Planet Mercury and Spica

2] GIGANTIC SUNSPOT 1117

In the last few days, Sunspot 1117, has grown very bigger and has transformed from a alpha sunspot to Beta Gamma sunspot.

Alpha sunspot is a sunspot which has only one pole and Beta-Gamma is a sunspot having both the opposite poles situated in a very complex manner such that we can't draw a single continuous line between the opposite poles. i.e Magnetic field line!

When such arrangement takes place, M class

Solar Flare along with CME erruptions become possible due to the differential magnetic reconnection happening in this case.

IF THERE IS A M CLASS ERUPTION FROM 1117 IN THESE 2-3 DAYS THEN THAT WILL BECOME GEOEFFECTIVE FOR EARTH AND MIGHT CAUSE SOME DISTURBANCE IN EARTH'S GEOMAGNETIC FIELD

3] ISOLATED "ACTIVE GEOMAGNETIC STORM " CONDITIONS POSSIBLE

As mentioned in the previous text,

Coronal Mass Ejection hurled from Sun on 26th Oct 2010 is on its way towards the earth as seen from Beacon data. The STEREO AHEAD HI2 image is showing CME is heading towards the earth and is likely to give a glancing blow on late period of Oct 29 2010 to 30th Oct 2010

I expect beautiful auroras also with some minor Geomagnetic storm in upcoming time.

Disturbance in Space weather possible on 29th Oct 2010 due to a CME

SEVERE SOLARWX

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

As seen from the Beacon data, a coronal mass ejection which had happened on Oct 26 2010 with a C class flare is heading towards the earth.

The Stereo behind HI 1 is indicating the CME heading towards the earth. Also indicated by the HI 2 image!.

As per NOAA, This CME will give a glancing blow to the earth on Oct 29 2010 i.e on Friday.

As per SEVERE SOLARWX, this CME will reach earth on Late period of Oct 29 2010 and will trigger Auroras

Active Geomagnetic Storm expected

SEVERE SOLARWX

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

Due to a recurrent geomagnetic hole high speed stream, Kp index had reached 5 on Saturday,23rd Oct 2010 and continued to be unsettled for most of the time. Situated now in a more geo-effective position, and the recent Coronal Mass ejection

Minor conditions of " Geomagnetic storm" possible around the polar regions with nice Auroras!

Stay tuned for alert

Classic M3 class flare from sunspot 1112 on 16th Oct 2010

Look at the giant filament

Courtesy- AstroEduca.com

SEVERE SOLARWX

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

(Post has been delayed since I had no time for writing this post on 17th Oct 2010)

Late night hours on 16th Oct 2010,sunspot 1112 hurled many solar flares including a Class M3 flare which was 400,000km long! which happened for the first time since SEVERE SOLARWX started forecastings in Aug 2010

The GOES X-ray flux indicated massive flare at about 1800hrs,GMT on 16th Oct which followed the C class flare emissions.Satellite environment plot started fluctuations after this the Kp index reached 4.

Space Weather Forecast-

The Geomagnetic activity is likely to start again as a Coronal Hole is rotating towards the earth and will become Geo-effective on 18th Oct 2010 late period

Low class flares possible from sunspot 1113,1115 as MDI magnetogram showing opposite charge fields (polarity) around the sunspot

A high speed stream flowing from this coronal hole and another which is near might reach the earth on Oct 19-20 and also some effects from past CME ejection on 14th Oct 2010

Varying Electric field intensity and electric field shape

THIS ARTICLE WILL BE MODIFIED ACCORDINGLY

AT PRESENT ITS INCORRECT

AKSHAY DEORAS

Glossary-

*1] Electric charged particle- A particle having an electric charge ( Can be Negative charge or a positive charge)

*2] Acceleration- Rate of change of velocity over a period of time. In one dimension it is rate of changes in speed of a body.

*3] Accelerating electric charged particle- A particle having an electric charge (greater than 0C) which is in acceleration due to action of a certain force

*4] Point charge- A point having a charge. For consideration, the point is taken as a sphere having a well defined diameter

* Point otherwise its a dimension less quantity

*5] Test charge- A ideal charge having magnitude,m (m~ 0)

*6] Electric field- A well defined area around a charge where there is influence of charge

or area around a point charge where force from point charge are active

In this case, area around an electric charge is called electric field

*7] Electric field shape- Shape of the electric field

(FOR THIS ARTICLE, THE SHAPE IS CONSIDERED ON A 2-DIMENSION)

*8] Electric Field Intensity (Electric intensity)-

Is the force experienced by a test charge having certain magnitude ( greater than 0) which is kept in electric field of a point charge

α- direct proportionality symbol

1] VARYING ELECTRIC FIELD INTENSITY FOR A POINT AND TEST CHARGE AT DIFFERENT STATES

Basic-

We consider a point charge P kept in vacuum at rest with a test charge Q at rest

Point charge having magnitude equal to 20C.(Coulomb). Electric field intensity = F/q

i.e

Vector E= Vector F/q

where E and F vector and vectors of electric field and force respectively and q is the charge of P

considering magnitudes-

E=F/q ....................... (1)

F= Ma .........................(2)

where M is mass and a is acceleration of point charge whose force will be experienced by test charge kept in electric field

Putting value of eq.(2) in (1)

E= Ma/q ......................(3)

So Electric field intensity of a test charge at rest in vacuum is given by eq.(3) where

E α Ma

Eα 1/q

Condition-

Now we accelerate the point charge P by providing a Force()

having magnitude equal to 10N and direction along unit vector

()

Let the mass of point charge be 1g and determined acceleration be 10m/s^

Putting values in .. eq(3) and considering vector

= 1*10/20 ()

= 1/2 N/C ()

= 0.5N/C ()..............(4)

IN FIRST CASE WHERE THE POINT CHARGE WAS IN REST we get following result from .... eq(3)

E= Ma/q ......................(3)

Where M=1g

a= 0m/s^

q=20C

= 1*0/20 ()

where () is unit vector along Force vector and accordingly for

=0 () ...................(5)

=0

On comparison of eq (4) and (5) we determine that there is a varying electric field intensity for a stationary point charge and test charge and a accelerating point charge and stationary test charge.

*When the point charge is in a state of motion(increasing magnitude) then electric field intensity on stationary test charge increases in other words as distance between them decreases.

* When point charge is stationary and test charge also then there is no net electric field intensity on a test charge

(II} VARYING ELECTRIC FIELD SHAPE.

TO BE COMPLETED!

Geomagnetic Storm G1 onset on earth!

IMAGE-

FIRST ONE IS THE SATELLITE ENVIRONMENT PLOT FROM NOAA . SEE THE KP OF 5!

SECOND IMAGE IS THE ARCHIVE 9TH OCT 2010 IMAGE FROM SUN. NOTICE THE TINY BLACK SPOTS OR CORONAL HOLES IN SUN'S NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. A HIGH SPEED STREAM FROM THERE HAS HIT THE EARTH TODAY

SEVERE SOLARWX

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

A coupled effect from a small coronal high speed stream and recent Interplanetary magnetic field trip on Oct 5 2010 has set a G1 Geomagnetic storm on the earth as per NOAA

NOAA forecasters were pretty confident since last few days regarding the Isolated active period on 11th Oct and some time on 12th Oct 2010

At present,

The Kp index is 5 at present with solar wind nearing to 370km/sec

There is a massive fluctuation in electron flux

HIGH LATITUDE OBSERVERS EVEN TO SOME MID LATITUDE OBSERVERS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR AURORAS ON 11TH AND 12TH OCT AT NIGHT PERIOD

THINGS ARE NOW CALMING DOWN WITH NOAA FORECAST SHOWING NO STORM ONSET IN RECENT.

The programming of the universe

Certain ideas require no explanation !

A computer works fully as per the programming done. Right from the basic calculations of additions and other algebraic calculations to the computer games. Algebraic additions,subtractions and multiplication with division is all done by using the Binary number system of (0,1) and the Boolean Algebra. The programming is done in such a way that its simple to the users and to the processing units. Thats more a Computer language

The theory of very small tells us that at every second or micro micro,nano seconds there is some activity going on in the dark regions of the universe. A pair of Particle-Antiparticle creates and destroys each other after an interval. We don't see it by our eyes or by means of Observational astronomy.

The formation,evolution,death of Universe and multiple cycles of formation-destruction are very mysterious things.

Has there been "Programming of The Universe"

The answer possibly is - Yes

We all have a defined Genetic code which we get from our parents. This Genetic code is transferred to us during our (Birth in the womb,evolution in the womb). For all our lives we carry the same Genetic code which also describes many properties that can be identical to either or both of our parents.

Considering the Big Bang theory which is considered to be the very correct theory,

The universe started in a tiny point where there was no light,energy at the earlier stage

At the later stage as this tiny point expanded the explosion happened and Time was created matter was released. Over the time as the matter cooled down, force of Gravity became dominant and began the process of compression of a matter and over the period this created the stars.

The basic concept right from the Singularity to Big Bang lies similar to a evolution of a baby in the womb. During both this events, certain developments happen which initiate due to the programming

If Universe began from a Big Bang, then we must admit that there has been certain programming during the Singularity-Inflation stage

What type of Programming-

From Singularity where everything was concentrated in zero volumed region to the inflation stage of newly born universe there exist few common features.

The prominent among it is the creation-

My argument is that Why the Big bang happened?

If Singularity was the initial stage of the universe then why did an explosion(cosmic inflation) happened which released all the matter. Why Singularity was not the permanent stage.?

If Singularity would have been the permanent stage of the Universe then there would not had been any evolutions or series of evolutions which led to the formation of everything

This means the nature of the matter in the singularity and expansion stage was well defined and can be called as Programming.

On Earth, similar chronology is observed... Anything emerges out from a point, grows and then becomes vast. Nothing starts from vast or continue to remain a point.

2] The separation of four fundamental forces.

At the early stage all these fundamental forces were united by they got separated all of sudden.

Similar to this, there are many other events which can be put in terms of a chronology and all the events have a well defined inreversible order

This is the programming of universe which created everything.

Possible Kp of 4 expected!

Sunspot 1109 at left,1108 at center and 1106 at right

SEVERE SOLARWX

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster-

A gigantic coronal hole at the northern hemisphere of the earth facing side of the sun is very likely sending High speed Coronal stream towards the earth. The coronal hole high speed stream emitted towards the earth causes disturbances in the magnetic field of the earth and onsetting a Geomagnetic storm

This time, chances are good for a Kp index of 4 which will trigger beautiful auroras in the high latitude regions. People must keep checking NOAA forecasts which are in a favor of 35% ACTIVE conditions in both high and mid latitude regions till next 48hrs. Associated with this is the fluctuating Electron flux

Sunspots-

Currently three sunspots are nearly active!

The giant sunspot 1108 is at the southern side of the Sun and quite away from earth direction

1108 also has been emitting many solar flares with some CME recently

The big show can be of the rotating sunspot 1109 which already triggered some CME on 22nd Sept 2010 as seen from Coronagraphs. 1109 can trigger some more C class flares in coming 24hrs . NOAA forecasters call for 10% chance of M class flares

Jupiter to appear Bright as earth passes between sun and Jupiter

(Jupiter as on 20th Sept 2010 midnight)

All sky gazers and amateur astronomers must turn their attention towards Jupiter on 20th Sept 2010 as Jupiter will be 591 495 532 kilometers or 368 million miles from the earth after 1963!

Astronomical phenomena known as opposition when any planet passe

s in between the observer and the sun will take place on 21st Sept 2010 when earth will pass between Jupiter and the sun

Since Jupiter's orbit is not as perfectly symmetrical than earth, during opposition it will near towards the earth due to its orbit

Jupiter is currently rising just few minutes after the sunset since we are approaching the Opposition phase.

So Jupiter is easily spotted as an object having magnitude of -2.9 in Eastern Sky

On 20th Sept 2010 i.e Sunday, Jupiter will rise just near South Easter

n side of East side in the sky after sunset

towards late night it will be towards SE and near to the moon so it will

be easy to spot

Earth passes in between Jupiter and sun every 13 months as Earth completes a rotation in 12 months and Jupiter in 12 years

Jupiter will be seen good by Telescope and ordinary binoculars

Opposition will be on 21st,tuesday so Jupiter will be very bright and clear these days

Right- (Jupiter and moon on 20th Sept 2010 midnight)

DONT MISS IT

Geomagnetic index of 4 reached

SEVERE SOLARWX

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

Geomagnetic index of 4 has been reached late night Wednesday.

Some Auroras were triggered in high latitude areas.

NOAA forecasters are expecting Isolated active period (geomagnetic disturbance) tomorrow i.e 16th Sept 2010... I definitely don't understand the reason they are giving i.e CME of 11th Sept 2010..

According to me, the CME already impacted earth with Kp of 4.. However some late coming CME on the same day can influence the earth's magnetic field tomorrow.

I am not in a favour of Active period on 16th Sept 2010

A Big Coronal Hole is rotating towards the earth. A recent coronal high speed might reach earth in next 3-4 days. So that time I can expect a proton flux happening

Sunspot 1106 hurls another solar flare and some CME

RIGHT-

THE DARK BLACK PATCH ON THE SUN WILL BE ROTATING TOWARDS EARTH IN COMING TIME. A CORONAL HIGH SPEED STREAM MIGHT BE HITING THE EARTH FROM IT

BELOW IT I.E FILAMENTS AROUND SUNSPOT 1106

Akshay's Gyaan sets up "SEVERE SOLARWX" section on the blog

Finally, an official confirmation of establishing a well defined Space Weather Forecasting agency.

I already had made more than a dozen of Space Weather Forecasts since August 2010.

But there was no specific name given to the organization as we have the Global Earth Weather forecasting agency-METD WEATHER.

METD WEATHER was established on June 1,2009. Its parent blog is Akshay's Gyaan

On the same basis, we have setup a section on blog (though not a different blog as managing 3 blogs will become difficult). The name of the Akshay's Gyaan Space Weather Forecasting agency is -

"SEVERE SOLARWX" WX means weather in meteorological aspects. Severe Solar WX means Severe Solar Weather.

All the posts relating to space weather will be done on Akshay's Gyaan blog

The Severe Solar forecaster will be Akshay Deoras

Electron Flux from GOES show upcoming CME!

The 5 min data from GOES Electron flux unit is indicating a fluctuation in the graph and it means that the geomagnetic field of the earth is slowly becoming unstable. The Kp index from GOES also has surged to 3 from 1 mark on 14th Sept 2010 early hours (GMT).

A Coronal Mass Ejection had happened on Sun on Sept 10 2010 which was not directly aimed towards the earth but the outer expanding clouds had a possibility of generating a Kp index of 4 .

The datas from STEREO spacecraft aren't showing any approaching CME in significant level towards earth and no cloud expanding on Stereo Ahead HI 2 plot

It looks like some charged particles associated with that CME are now striking the earth. I don't expect a Geomagnetic storm generation. But High altitude observers much watch for Auroras during late night hours of 14th and 15th Sept 2010

Active 1106!

The sunspot 1106 which previously was named as 1100 which is now rotating towards the earth is already active and

again has erupted a Class B1 flare and seen from Coronagraphs, CME.

Since the sunspot is away from the ea

rth, that Coronal Mass ejection is not expected to hit the earth but if another eruptions happen when 1106 faces the earth, then it can trigger a direct hit of CME towards the earth and causing a geomagnetic storm in coming days

RIGHT- GIANT CME ON THE LOWER LEFT SIDE OF THE SUN FROM SUNSPOT 1106

Sunspot 1105 emits a C3 class flare and CME!

Magnetic reconnection happened again at sunspot no. 1105 as a result of which that sunspot hurled a Massive C3 class solar flare on 2330UT,Sept.8. Captured images from SDO and SOHO clearly show Coronal Mass Ejection had happened on the sun but the CME currently is heading towards a direction where no planets are situated currently so It w'd miss everything.

Currently the solar activity will go down since no new sunspot has developed on the SDO facing side of the sun. 

Also the geomagnetic activity is expected to remain down after early unsettled levels of Electron Flux

Attachments-

1] Solar Flare strip as captured by Solar Dynamics Observatory aka SDO

2] Latest Coronagraph from the sun showing massive CME on the upper right part of the image

3] X ray flux showing a C3 flare emission