Analogy between Sunspots 1158,1164,1166 on the Sun

Analogy between Sunspots 1158,1164,1166 on the Sun

- A.Deoras

I- Introduction

This article describes the phases of sunspots 1158,1164,1166 on the sun during a period of Feb-Mar 2011. This article tries to establish a relation between the mentioned sunspots ( Magnetic Field Relation) which powered X class flares from region 1158,1166 during the Solar Cycle 24

II- What are Sunspots?

Sunspots are the temporary features on the photosphere of the sun which are formed due to inhibits convection making them to appear dark due to reduced temperature as compared to other regions of sun

III- Magnetic Classification of Sunspots i.e Classification of Sunspots on the nature of magnetic fields around them

Sunspots are classified on the basis of Magnetic field around them i.e on the basis of magnetic poles,their complexity(intensity).

Mount Wilson Sunspot Magnetic Classification

Classification of the magnetic character of sunspots according to rules set forth by the Mount Wilson Observatory in California.

alpha: A unipolar sunspot group.

beta: A sunspot group having both positive and negative magnetic polarities (bipolar), with a simple and distinct division between the polarities.

gamma: A complex active region in which the positive and negative polarities are so irregularly distributed as to prevent classification as a bipolar group.

beta-gamma: A sunspot group that is bipolar but which is sufficiently complex that no single, continuous line can be drawn between spots of opposite polarities.

delta: A qualifier to magnetic classes(see below) indicating that umbrae separated by less than 2 degrees within one penumbra have opposite polarity.

beta-delta: A sunspot group of general beta magnetic classification but containing one (or more) delta spot(s).

beta-gamma-delta: A sunspot group of beta-gamma magnetic classification but containing one (or more) delta spot(s).

gamma-delta: A sunspot group of gamma magnetic classification but containing one (or more) delta spot(s).

II. SUNSPOT 1158-

First appeared - 7th Feb 2011 as an area ( AR 1158)

Disappeared/Rotated Away - Rotated away on 21st Feb 2011

First Significant Flare produced- M6.6 on 13th Feb 2011

Max Flare produced- X2.2 ( First X class flare of Solar Cycle 24)

Date- 15th Feb 2011 at 0156UT

AR 1158 Magnetic Field starts becoming more complex after the formation.

As a result, a marked sunspot 1158 appears on the sun on 11th Feb 2011.

Status as of 11-12th Feb 2011

Sunspot 1158's Magnetograms clearly indicate strengthening of polarity i.e the black and white patches ( South and North pole) respectively becomes wide and complex

The Magnetic classification now reaches a Gamma Magnetic Field which produces C class flares to low M class flares.

13th Feb 2011-

An M6.6 Solar Flare was produced from this sunspot.

Magnetic Classification on 13th Feb- Beta-Gamma magnetic field.

Earth Directed flare caused a R2 Radio Blackout.

Sunspot Widened more than 100,000 kms as seen here

Below are the Magnetogram Images of 12th Feb and 13th Feb of nearly the same time i.e 1753UT.

First Image is of 12th Feb showing Gamma Magnetic field

Second Image is of 13th Feb showing Beta-Gamma Magnetic field.

Note- The polarity of Sunspot 1158 strengthened as seen from widening of black and white patches ( South and North Pole respectively) in a period of 24hrs.

14TH Feb 2011-

Sunspot continued to become more complex due to differential rotation speeds at different latitudes on the sun.

Magnetic field- Beta Gamma Delta.

Above- The 14th Feb Magnetogram of the region encircled in green showing more complex polarity and classification into Beta-Gamma-Delta spot.

15th Feb 2011-

On early morning hours (0156UT), An X2.2 solar flare was released from the sunspot.

The sunspot continued to have a Beta-Gamma-Delta field. But the question arises what made this Sunspot to hurl an X2.2 Solar Flare.

Explanation using a new product view which show something very common with sunspots.

THE MAGNETIC FIELD LINES

AS SEEN FROM THE ABOVE 2048PFSS PLOT, THE SUNSPOT 1158 AS SEEN IN THE LOWER RIGHT OF THE IMAGE HAS SOME SYMMETRICAL MAGNETIC FIELD LINES. MAGNETIC LINES ( ASSUMED ) TO START FROM NORTH POLE( WHITE) REACHING TO BLACK(SOUTH POLE) CONSTITUTING A MAGNETIC DIPOLE.

DESPITE OF THE COMPLEXITY IN POLARITY AS SHOWN BY THE MAGNETOGRAM, THIS IMAGE SHOWS THAT THE MAGNETIC LINES AROUND THE SUNSPOT ARE SYMMETRICAL AND HAVE AN OPEN FIELD STRUCTURE.

III. Sunspot 1166

First Appeared- ( On the earth side of Sun ) on 3rd March 2011

Sunspot had formed on the side of the sun away from the earth.

Disappeared/Rotated away - Presently on the Earth side of Sun

First noted Solar flare- M2 class flare at 1400UT at 7th March 2011.

Max Solar Flare- X1.5 flare

AT- 2323UT on 9th March 2011.

Magnetogram of region 1166 showing a complex bipolar sunspot or Gamma Magnetic field.

6TH MARCH AND 7TH MARCH 2011

Sunspot 1166 continued to evolve and having beta-gamma classification.

Size of Sunspot highly increases.

BELOW-

MAGNETOGRAM IMAGES OF SUNSPOT 1166.

TOP IMAGE IS OF 6TH MARCH SHOWING THE REGION AS SEEN IN THE TOP LEFT OF THE SUN.

SECOND IMAGE IS OF THE MAGNETIC FIELD LINES ON 7TH MARCH 2011.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE, SUNSPOT 1166 PRODUCED AN M CLASS FLARE ON 7TH MARCH.

IT CAN BE NOTICED THAT THE POLARITY IS COMPLEX WITH SYMMETRIC ARRANGEMENT OF MAGNETIC FIELD LINES

*** SAME AS SEEN IN THE CASE OF SUNSPOT 1158 WHICH ALSO HAS OPEN MAGNETIC STRUCTURE

X 1.5 Class flare-

Sunspot 1166 produced an X 1.5 class flare as described here

IV. Sunspot 1164-

First appeared ( On the Earth side of the sun) - 25th Feb 2011

Sunspot had formed on the side of sun away from earth

Disappeared/Rotated away - Rotated away on 10th Mar 2011

First noted Solar flare- 24th Feb 2011 ..M3 Class flare

Max Solar Flare- M1 solar flare at 1431UT on 7th March 2011.

SUNSPOT REGION 1163-1164 FIRST APPEARED ON 25TH FEB 2011.

SUNSPOT DEVELOPED ON THE SIDE OF SUN AWAY FROM THE EARTH.

ON 25TH FEB 2011 THE SUNSPOT HAD "BETA-GAMMA MAGNETIC FIELD"

It was noted that despite having Beta-Gamma magnetic field in the initial period and then a Delta Magnetic classification, sunspot 1164 didn't produce any strong flare other than M1 flare.

Low C class flares were produced by the sunspot during the period of appearance.

MAGNETIC FIELD LINES OF 1164

AS SEEN FROM THE PICTURE ABOVE OF THE MAGNETOGRAM OF 7TH MARCH 2011, THE DELTA SUNSPOT HAS TREMENDOUS COMPLEX POLARITY AND EVEN TWISTED MAGNETIC FIELD LINES.

MAGNETIC FIELD LINES WERE TWISTED IN THE REGION 1164.

*** ALSO SEEN IN THE IMAGE, SUNSPOT 1166 AT THE UPPER LEFT OF THE SUN.

COMPARE THE MAGNETIC FIELD LINES OF THE SUNSPOT 1164 AND 1166!

IV - GENERAL OBSERVATIONS OF THE ACTIVITIES OF SUNSPOTS 1158,1164,1166

1] Sunspot 1158 and 1166 produced an X class flare along with multiple M and C class flares

2] Sunspot 1164 produced NO big flare other than a M1 class flare

3] The overall structure of Magnetic Field lines of Sunspot 1158 and 1166 were identical to each other while the structure of magnetic field lines of sunspot 1164 differed.

4] Sunspot 1158 and 1166 had open magnetic field structure while there was complex magnetic field lines in the region 1164.

V- GRAPHICAL DISPLAY OF MAGNETIC FIELD LINES OF SUNSPOT 1158,1164

- DISPLAY OF SYMMETRIC MAGNETIC FIELD LINES.

THE COMPARISON OF IMAGES OF SUNSPOT 1166,1158 AND 1169 SHOW SYMMETRICAL CORONAL LOOPS.

EXAMPLES BELOW

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

VI. EFFECT OF SYMMETRIC CORONAL LOOPS ON VARIOUS REGIONS OF THE SUN ( Open Flux Tube modification proposal)

As seen from the above few images of the magnetic field around sunspot 1158,1166 we can clearly see that magnetic field lines are symmetrical from one pole to another pole i.e there is no complexity in field line symmetry. Due to such orderly arrangement, there is an area having Coronal loop directly reaching to the transition region of the sun. These coronal loops also have symmetrical arrangement.

From the Photosphere of the sun the coronal loops originate having an extent till the Sun's corona. It can also be said that there is some passage which connects the Sun's interior to the Corona which acts as a gateway to Coronal Mass Ejections.

Due to Symmetry of Coronal loops outside the photosphere, it can be inferred that the symmetry is maintained in the interior part of the sun.

Thus due to supposed orderly arrangement of these coronal loops, there is symmetric magnetic field line arrangement from one polarity to another polarity which enhances energy transfer through transition region and corona.

*** Open Flux tube

Open Flux tube is that passage passing from Sun's interior to Sun's Corona. They are surrounded by the coronal loops.

VII- ELASTIC BAND EXAMPLE AND CONCLUSION

The symmetry of the magnetic field lines can be compared to an elastic band.

Consider an elastic band of any mass,volume.

The elastic band is at rest position with no potential energy stored in it as seen from the below figure top portion ( Untwisted Elastic Band).

On Winding the Elastic band,potential energy of user is stored in it and band takes the form of a twisted band as seen in the lower picture.

After the user removes the hand, Potential Energy gets converted into unwinding energy which again brings back the elastic band in original form as of the top image.

During Winding,after a certain limit ( number of Rotations of the elastic band about the thumb axis of user were the band is held), user can't wind the elastic band. On releasing, band starts unwinding rapidly ( Energy conversion and release)

Thus that becomes the maximum energy limit that can be stored. If user doesn't wind till that Max limit, then on unwinding, weak energy release is obtained.

* Similarly, magnetic field of a sunspot starts winding up due to differential rotation speed at different latitude of the sun. The required energy is stored in the coronal loops.

Some sunspot region reach the maximum limit where they become more symmetrical or maximum wound ( Sunspot 1169,1158,1166) while some don't reach till that max limit ( Sunspot 1164) which restricts Intensity of Solar Flare

BASIC CONCLUSIONS-

1] MAGNETIC FIELD OF EVERY SUNSPOT BECOMES COMPLEX BUT WINDING ABOUT A PERPENDICULAR AXIS PASSING THROUGH THE GEOMETRICAL CENTER OF PERPENDICULAR DISTANCE BETWEEN REGIONS OF OPPOSITE POLARITY

2] SOME SUNSPOTS WHICH ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING X CLASS FLARES HAVE GONE THROUGH MAXIMUM WINDING.

3] SOME SUNSPOTS DON'T REACH TO THE MAXIMA AND SO PRODUCE ONLY LOW CLASS FLARES

4] THE MORE SYMMETRICAL MAGNETIC FIELD( DEGREE OF CLOSENESS OF FIELD LINES) THE MORE HIGH CLASS FLARES AND CORONAL MASS EJECTION THE SUNSPOT CAN TRIGGER.

VIII- References

1] NOAA/NWS Space Weather Prediction Center

2] NASA Solar Dynamic Observatory Magnetograms and close range images

3] Spaceweather.com for providing database on sunspots,solar flare activities and simplified magnetic classification rules

4] Mount Wilson Observatory for providing the rules of Magnetic Classification of Sunspots.

X1.5 class Solar FLARE from Sunspot 1166

Second Image from Top shows the peak time when flare was released.

The bright vertical line at North Central part of Sun is the bright UV radiation released during the flare

Top most image is when the activity started.

SEVERE SOALRWX

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

As mentioned in the previous post about Space Weather, Sunspot 1166 has emitted an X1.5 class flare. The flare emission began at around 2313 UTC ( 9th March 2011) reached a peak at 2323 UTC and ended at 2329UTC.

It was so powerful that it sent an ionization wave towards the earth which caused a Radio Blackout reaching a maximum level of R3 !

Sunspot 1166 continues to have a Beta Gamma Delta magnetic field and open magnetic field which might trigger some more X ray flares

On Feb 15 2011, Sunspot 1158 has released an X2.2 Solar Flare

http://akshaydeoras.blogspot.com/2011/02/x22-solar-flare-from-1158-sunspot.html

NEXT POST-

In my next post, I shall compare the structures of Sunspot 1158 and 1166 which produced X class flares on 15th Feb and 9th March respectively.

Space Shuttle Discovery lands at KSC

Space Shuttle Discovery lands at Kennedy Space Center,FL

STS 133 and Work of Space Shuttle Discovery now over

Discovery Heading back home!

The Weather is permissible at Kennedy Space Center,FL with winds within the limit

Space Shuttle Discovery shall land at Kennedy Space Center,FL at 1157am EST

2227hrs IST. 

De-orbit burn is targeted for 1052am EST

--
Akshay Deoras

Severe Earth & Space Weather Forecaster,Astrophysics article writer.

Web-

www.akshaydeoras.blogspot.com

www.metdweather.blogspot.com

Classic Coronal Mass Ejection from 1165 sunspot

SEVERE SOLARWX

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

The sunspot region 1165 which is at the far limb of the sun produced a M4 Class flare at around 1828UT. The explosion was so powerful that it hurled massive coronal mass ejection into the space

The attached image is the image of sun as seen from the earth. A time lapse of CME can be found here.

The CME is not heading towards the earth rather is directed along a path between Venus and Earth

Approaching CORONAL MASS EJECTION FROM MARCH 7 EVENT

During late night hours on 7th March, there was M2 class flare which hurled a tremendous high velocity coronal mass ejection. Max velocity was around 2200Km/sec

It can be seen here .

The CME as seen from the STEREO BEHIND PLOT is partly directed towards the earth and is expected to cause unsettle magnetosphere ( Minor Storming).

The CME shall arrive tomorrow morning and is expected to cause KP= 5,4

WEATHER FORECAST

* M class flares likely to continue from sunspot 1165 and new M class flares are expected from sunspot 1166 which also posses a Delta Magnetic classification.

Sunspot 1166 is expected to become more complex and capable for producing X c

lass flares.

As the proton flux is above normal level,

Solar Proton storming shall persists till next 24hrs

* With the arrival of CME tomorrow(10th March)

Minor storming is possible with Auroras for high latitude observers.

STS 133 LANDING- KSC WEATHER REPORT BY METD WEATHER

FOR LATEST UPDATE VISIT

metdweather.blogspot.com

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

STS 133 Ground Weather Forecast-

Forecast for Wednesday,9th March 2011- TARGETED LANDING DAY FOR SPACE SHUTTLE DISCOVERY

Space Shuttle Discovery is expected to land at the Kennedy Space Center's Shuttle Landing Facility on 9th March, Wed at 1158EST (16:58 UTC) 2228hrs IST on the orbit 202.

Below are the conditions acceptable for landing of a shuttle as prescribed by the Space Flight Meteorology group

Space Shuttle Landing Weather Criteria
Simplified Daylight End-of-Mission (EOM) Landing at the Kennedy Space Center

---

Weather Parameter and Their Limits

Cloud ceiling height	>= 8,000 ft
Visibility	>= 5 statute miles
Crosswind	<= 15 knots
Headwind	<= 25 knots
Tailwind	<= 15 knots (peak) <= 10 knots (2 minute average)
Precipitation and thunderstorms	Not allowed within 30 nautical miles of the landing runway.
Turbulence	<= Moderate

Additional Requirements

1.  No detached non-transparent thunderstorm anvil clouds (less than 3 hours old) 

within 20 nautical miles of the       landing runway.  2.  Peak winds may not exceed the

 average wind speed by more than 10 knots.  

Forecast by METD WEATHER of 9th Mar 2011 for Kennedy Space Center,FL

On Wednesday, 9th March 2011 weather is expected to be CALM around the Kennedy Space Center,FL with a high pressure area in SW of Florida

Technical aspects-

Cloud Ceiling Height-

Cloud Ceiling height has been a primary concern for the landing day Wednesday.

The previous few model RUNS of GFS and NAM were showing low height of Lifted Condensation Level ( LCL) indicating that cloud bases ( ceiling) to be less than 8,000ft which is the prescribed limit by Space Flight Meteorology Group

However, recent model analysis have shown that cloud ceiling shall be unlimited to high level with 30% cloud cover on Wednesday. Cloud Cover of 50% is not permissible with nature of clouds to be Convective.

Thus cloud cover on Wednesday shall be less with very high cloud ceiling

This parameter is "ON HOLD" AS PER METD WEATHER SINCE MORE CONVINCING PRODUCTS ARE REQUIRED TO ACCEPT THE FACT.

2] Winds-

Permissible tail wind has to be less than 15kt.

Tail wind during landing time is expected to be around 7kt

This parameter is "GO" as the cross wind is also light with head wind.

3] Precipitation and Thunderstorms not allowed within 30nm of runway

No Thunderstorm/Precipitation is expected on 9th March morning period around KSC so this parameter is "GO"

4] Weak turbulence.Parameter is "GO"

Thus the weather forecast stands for "GO" with primary concern of Cloud Ceiling thus making 80% Acceptable conditions.

Weather forecast is GO for Edward AFB and White sands for Wed

Weather Forecast is NO GO for KSC on Thu ( 10th March 2011) due to possible thunderstorms and lightning.

Next report-

0500hrs GMT,8th March 2011

Sunspot 1164 emits M class flare

SEVERE SOLARWX

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

Sunspot 1164 which was silent since last few days has now produced Solar Flare of M1 class.

At around 1431hrs UTC, Sunspot 1164 produced M1 class flare.

A wave of ionization was emitted due to the solar flare which has caused a Radio Blackout- The second for the day.

Whether there has been a Coronal Mass ejection, it shall be confirmed with the arriving datas

Coronal Mass ejection heading towards earth

SEVERE SOLARWX
AKSHAY DEORAS
SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTER

AN expected band of coronal mass ejection from march 3 event is speedily heading towards the earth as seen from STEREO images.
The CME was observed in the images today morning with light disturbance patch but is now a strong band quickly progressing!

CME is expected to hit the earth late hours ( 6th March) to early morning hours (7th March)

If the magnetic field of sun trips south or southward Bz, then solar wind shall pour in as at the point of contact of sun and earth magnetic field during southward Bz, solar winds enter. If the magnetic field of sun trips to north, then less auroras are expected with weak geomagnetic storm
I expect unsettled conditions from tomorrow noon to evening period with active conditions (storm) by evening hours and some time on 8th March
Attached image shows approaching cme from sun side.

Sunspot 1164
Today, sunspot 1164 which is capable of producing X class flare has emitted top C class flares.
Despite delta magnetic field, sunspot has been calm with no major flare till yet. It might be due to less active coronal loops visible leading to shortness of open
tube which is the gateway for a flare and cme

HIGH LATITUDE OBSERVERS SHALL REMAIN ALERT FOR AURORAS

Via - MOBILE BLOG
FOR NOKIA E63

Akshay Deoras
www.akshaydeoras.blogspot.com
www.metdweather.blogspot.com

Sunspot 1164 has DELTA magnetic classification

The Growing sunspot 1164 has a Delta Magnetic classification. It means that the magnetic fields are so twisted that umbra ( Darker region of one pole) is separated by a distance less than 2 degree by penumbra of opposite polarity. 

Such sunspots are capable of producing X class Flares! 

But the spot has not produced any GIANT flare yet! This is the puzzling thing as when do sunspots hurl Solar Flares and CME is still being studied!

Sunspot 1166 is growing in size and is already a marked feature on sun. It has a Gamma Magnetic classification meaning that polarity is very complex which prevents classifying that region into a simple bipolar sunspot. 

These sunspots are capable of producing C class flares. 

However,the sunspot shall develop soon. 

CORONAL MASS EJECTION HEADING TOWARDS THE EARTH

Report from Space Weather Prediction Center

March 4, 2011: Two Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) from the east limb earlier today signal the imminent arrival of two active regions to the disk. Though neither of these CMEs is expected to cause any elevated Geomagnetic Storm activity, they may presage additional activity that could be geo-effective over the next two weeks. SWPC Forecasters will be watching for more.

CME is expected to arrive on 6th March

--
Akshay Deoras

Severe Earth & Space Weather Forecaster,Astrophysics article writer.

Web-

www.akshaydeoras.blogspot.com

www.metdweather.blogspot.com

Via- Email Blog

G1 Geomagnetic Storm due to Coronal High speed stream. Sunspot 1164 capable of producing M class Flare

SEVERE SOLARWX

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

A high speed stream from giant Coronal hole in the Northern Hemisphere of the Sun has just striked the earth causing Unsettled Kp value of 4. 

Space Weather Prediction team is expecting KP 5 meaning Isolate Active storming in next few hours. 

HIGH LATITUDE OBSERVERS SHALL WATCH FOR AURORA. 

The area of attraction right now on the sun is the sunspot 1164. 

Sunspot 1164 is having a complex beta-gamma magnetic field. The area is a bipolar region but so complex that one can't draw a single continuous line joining the opposite poles. 

such Beta Gamma Magnetic fields are capable of producing M class flares and if this sunspot grows more it can produce a low X class flare. 

As the sunspot is rotating towards the earth, it shortly shall reach in the geo-effective position and produce SEVERE SOLARWX.

Stay Tune for UPDATES!

--
Akshay Deoras

Severe Earth & Space Weather Forecaster,Astrophysics article writer.

Web-

www.akshaydeoras.blogspot.com

www.metdweather.blogspot.com

Via- Email Blog

Space Shuttle Discovery all set for FINAL Launch

A COUNTDOWN TIMER IS AVAILABLE ON THE BLOG REGARDING THE LAUNCH OF STS 133

LIVE STREAM FROM KENNEDY SPACE CENTER,FL VIA NASA TV SHALL BE SET UP ON THE FRONT PAGE OF BLOG AT THE TOP ON 0530HRS GMT,24TH FEB 2011

On the 6th attempt of launch! Space Shuttle Discovery is all set for a launch on its final mission from Kennedy Space Center,FL on mission STS 133

Launch is targeted on 24th Feb 2011 at 0450PM EST (21:50:13) UTC ( 24th Feb) , 03:20:13 hrs IST ( 25th Feb)

As mentioned earlier, the launch has been scrubbed away 5 times due to technical faults due to OMS pod leak and bad weather, Hydrogen leak at the ground umbilical carrier plate as the last reason for the delay.

Below is a tabular display of scrubbed dates of launches and the associated reason

Launch attempts

All times Eastern Time, first 5 are while daylight saving time was in effect (EDT), attempt 6 is during outside of daylight saving (EST)

Attempt	Planned	Result	Turnaround	Reason	Decision point	Weather go %	Notes
1	1 Nov 2010, 4:40:00 pm	scrubbed[46]	---	technical[47]	29 Oct 2010, 10:00 am(T-11 hour hold)	80%	OMS Pod leak[47]
2	2 Nov 2010, 4:18:00 pm	scrubbed[48]	0 days, 23 hours, 38 minutes	technical[48]	(T-11 hour hold)	70%	OMS Pod leak[48]
3	3 Nov 2010, 3:52:00 pm	scrubbed[49]	0 days, 23 hours, 34 minutes	technical[49]	2 Nov 2010, 5:40 pm(T-11 built-in hold)	70%	Electrical fault in backup SSME controller.
4	4 Nov 2010, 3:29:54 pm	scrubbed[50]	0 days, 23 hours, 38 minutes	weather[51][52]	4 Nov 2010, 6:25 am	20%	Decision made at pre-tanking weather briefing to reset clock to T-11 hold and delay ~24 hours due to rainy conditions.[51][53]
5	5 Nov 2010, 3:04:01 pm	scrubbed	0 days, 23 hours, 34 minutes	technical	5 Nov 2010, 12:00 pm(T-6 hold)	60%	Hydrogen leak detected at ground umbilical carrier plate (GUCP)[54]
6	24 Feb 2011, 4:50:24 pm		111 days, 1 hours, 46 minutes			80%

METD WEATHER-

The weather stands excellent for launch with light winds temp in upper 25C and lower 17C and good visibility with partly cloudy conditions

"GO" FOR LAUNCH FROM METD WEATHER

80% ACCEPTABLE CONDITIONS FROM NASA

Lets hope that no technical fault snags the launch this time

Geomagnetic Storm G1 onsets. M6.6 Solar Flare causes Radio Blackout

HYPERACTIVE DAY!

SEVERE SOLARWX

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

THE KP INDEX HAS REACHED 5 and indicates ONSET of Geomagnetic Storm G1

Kp reached 5 at around 0900UTC.Further Storming is expected and G3 Geomagnetic storm probability can't be ruled out.

M6.6 Solar Flare-

At around 1011UTC, Sunspot 1158 released another Solar Flare of X ray flux M6.6 category. Shortly after this release, Moderate Level RADIO BLACKOUT i.e R2 was noticed on the sunlit side of the earth.

The arriving datas from STEREO shall indicate whether Coronal Mass Ejection has been hurled out or now. Being it very strong, I expect a CME and might be directed towards the earth

CME hits the earth !

SEVERE SOLARWX

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

The Anticipated Coronal Mass ejections from 15th Feb and 13th Feb events have arrived which was detected by series of shocks recorded by the ACE spacecraft

The earth is having a magnetic field. Sun's magnetic field known as Interplanetary magnetic field(IMF). These two fields are in contact at Magnetopause. Earth's magnetic field is directed towards North and if the IMF points South then due to opposite in nature, IMF partly cancels earth's magnetic field at the point of contact. This phenomena is known as "southward B_z"

This results in pouring in of Solar Wind which triggers Auroras.

The Bz index has reached to 30nT meaning passing of shockwave ( 5-6UTC)

Kp index is now unsettled with level 4 and its expected to reach to 5 indicating G1 storm

High latitude observers must remain alert for Auroras.

GEOMAGNETIC STORM APPROACHING EARTH as Coronal Mass ejection nears!

1st image ( from top) is of 0347UTC,16th Feb. At left most side you can see the expanding CME.

2nd Image is of 15:47UTC showing tremendous progress of CME in 12hrs time lapse.

3rd image shows respective positions of Saturn,Earth,CME

Last image( 4th from top) shows ahead view showing CME approaching towards Venus and earth

SEVERE SOALRWX

Akshay Deoras

SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTER

The Coronal Mass ejection from sunspot 1158 which happened with the X2.2 solar flare on 15th Feb is finally heading towards the earth as seen from STEREO BEHIND HI2 and Ahead spacecraft.

Within the period of 12hrs from today early to noon ( GMT), the expanding cloud forward layers have covered around 40-45% distance between Earth and the left most side of window of Stereo image (as of 1547hrs UTC)

The cloud is also heading towards Saturn,Venus

CME shall hit Earth's magnetic field on 17th Feb by afternoon hours ( GMT) resulting into minor storming in late period as magnetic field of earth destabilizes and pouring down some solar wind creating Auroras in High latitude regions

As mentioned earlier, its a series of CME so more action is likely to be reserved on 18th Feb as minor storming is expected.

Thus high latitude observers shall remain alert for Auroras on 17th and 18th Feb

Sunspot 1158-

The Spot is not gone yet!

Sunspot 1158 which shall be remembered for years for producing an X2.2 Flare is slowly rotating away from the earth facing side of the sun. According to my experience, this sunspot is a Delta sunspot with entangled magnetic fields and closeness of Umbra of one pole and penumbra of opposite polarity making appearance of Delta cat due to less than 2 degree separation.

The sunspot has produced around 9 C class flares from X2.2 event and is still looking good for Minor M class flare till 18th Feb 2011