"Science of Lunar Eclipse through FAQ & Celestial Beauty of Saturday"

A Week prior to the 10th Dec 2011 Total Lunar Eclipse, AKG is beginning the Lunar Week from Sat ( 03rd Dec) to 10th Dec 2011. 

The Lunar Week's inaugural article is here.I am proud to present this article titled as "Science of Lunar Eclipse through FAQ & Celestial Beauty of Saturday" 

The article focuses on explaining the science of Lunar Eclipse through Frequently Asked Questions I have encountered with written in a simple language to enable the readers to understand it. Also given below are the datas from Eclipse NASA giving insight about the event on 10th Dec 2011 when a Total Lunar Eclipse will be visible. 

The Eclipse is important for me and my hometown as the next eclipse ( Total Lunar) will be visible nearly after 6 years !!! 

So sit back and enjoy and wish you a Happy Lunar Week.

AND!!

FOR THOSE WHO WILL BE ABLE TO SEE THE ECLIPSE: MARK THE DATE --- Sat,10th Dec 2011

Akshay Deoras

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

"Science of Lunar Eclipse through FAQ & Celestial Beauty of Saturday"

By Akshay Deoras

The coming Saturday,10th Dec  is going to be a wonderful evening for all the astro lovers! There will be a Total Lunar Eclipse on the evening of Saturday which will be the second one of the year ( After 15th June 2011) when the first total lunar eclipse was seen. 

However, the weather didn't allow any view of the eclipse from Nagpur. 

The Eclipse is going to be visible completely  in East Asia,Australia,New Zealand.In India the moon will rise before the beginning of penumbral eclipse in North East states,East central region,Eastern Jammu and Kashmir. For central India including Nagpur,and the remaining regions the moon will rise in the penumbral eclipse. Penumbral Eclipse happens when the moon enters the penumbra or outer faint shadow of the Earth. As a result the TOTALITY PHASE will be seen by these areas. 

However for much of Africa,Europe the eclipse last stages will be seen and so it will just be restricted to Partial Lunar Eclipse for them. The Eclipse will not be visible in extreme west africa,South America and Antarctica prominently. 

The Details for India

I must say that cities in the entire Seven sister states,West Bengal,Sikkim,Bihar,Jharkhand and some parts of Chattisgarh,Extreme eastern J&K  will have the moon rise before the P1 stage. So they can experience the entire phenomena. 

For Kolkata moon will rise on 10th Dec around 1637hrs (1107UT).

The general timings are - 

P1 = 11:33:32 UT ….. (0503PM IST)…..  Moon enters the penumbra 

U1 = 12:45:42 UT …. (0615PM IST)…..  Moon enters the umbra 

U2 = 14:06:16 UT ….. (0736PM IST) …  TOTAL ECLIPSE BEGINS

GREATEST ECLIPSE - 1432UT ( 0802PM IST)

U3 = 14:57:24 UT …. (0827PM IST) 

U4 = 16:17:58 UT….. (0948PM IST) … MOON LEAVES UMBRA

P4 = 17:30:00 UT …. (11PM IST) …     ECLIPSE ENDS 

WHAT WILL THE PEOPLE SEE (INCLUDING NAGPUR) ?

Nagpur Special*

For Nagpur, the moon rise on 10th is at 1723hrs IST (1153hrs UT)

Moon enters the Umbra - 0615PM IST 

Total Eclipse Begins - 0736PM IST

MAXIMUM - 0802PM IST

Total Eclipse Ends- 0827PM IST

Partial Eclipse ends - 0948PM IST

Penumbral Eclipse ends- 11PM IST

THE NEXT TOTAL LUNAR ECLIPSE TO BE VISIBLE FROM NAGPUR WILL BE ON 31ST JAN 2018

Apparent View of the Moon and Earth's shadow in Real time at 0802PM IST

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MOON'S APPEARANCE WILL BE SIMILAR AS SHOWN IN THE ABOVE FIGURE

At 1133UT, the moon's appearance will start fading slightly which is often not noticed by naked eyes. This happens as less dark shadow of Earth falls on the Moon. As the Moon starts progressing towards the Umbra Region, from 1406UT, the Totality will start and the Moon's surface will begin to cut off due to the earth and moon will start getting darker but there will be appearance of Red shades will increase and at 1432UT the moon will be BRICK RED. The reverse process will again follow as the moon leaves umbra completely at 1618UT. 

The Eclipse will be over at 1730UT! 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The Myth of Eclipses

The phenomena of eclipse wasn't as enjoyable thousands of years ago as it is today especially to see the copper red moon of totality.

Chinese people had mentioned first about Solar Eclipse long way back around 2134BC. People of the ancient times used to fear from the eclipse as they thought it was a curse. Even the famous war between Lydians and Medes ended after 5 years at once as the day turned dark due to Solar Eclipse- A phenomena which they didn't understand. 

  For those who don't know the science of the eclipse, lets learn it through Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Q.Ingredients for the recipe of Total Lunar Eclipse?

 A. Sun,Earth,Moon

 Lunar Eclipse occurs when the Earth's shadow falls on the moon.When I am standing in front of a tube light my shadow falls behind ( Say there is a screen). This screen is the moon and I am the earth for consideration

Q.How is the moon's orbit around the Earth?

A.The orbit of the moon around the Earth is an ellipse ( curve obtained when you join letter "u" from top with inverted "u"). Moon's orbit around the earth makes an angle of 5 Degree 14 mins with the ecliptic ( Ecliptic plane is the plane in which Earth orbit's the Sun)

Its like when you consider a clock let the minute hand pointing from 9 to 3 be ecliptic. So the second's hand pointing from 10-4 and 8-2 is the moon's orbit around the earth but in the real three dimension of space.

Thus the second's hand crosses the plane two times.At 9'o clock and 3'o clock.The same is the concept of Moon.

Moon's orbit crosses the ecliptic two times during one orbit referred as nodes( Explained below)

Thus for earth's shadow to be casted on moon or moon blocking the solar disc, the moon must be in a common plane with earth and sun i.e have co-planar orbits.

 Q. When Moon crosses the ecliptic twice a month, then why there isn't eclipse twice a month?

      A. Consider the below figure

COURTESY- DWIGHT ENNIS

The Nodal axis is a line joining the two nodes. That is for eclipse moon must be at one node which it does twice in its orbit BUT the sun ALSO must be at the  other far end of the stick ( Nodal axis). It is supposed to happen every 6 months. 

Q. Why doesn't the Eclipse re-occur at the same date after 6 months?

A.The combined gravitational pull between Earth-Moon-Sun creates a wobble in that nodal axis and so it oscillates. Due to this the dates of eclipses aren't repeated at the same dates.

Q. WHY MOON APPEARS RED SHADE DURING TOTALITY?

A. When the Totality stage arrives, the moon enters much of the Darker portion ( UMBRA) of earth's shadow. Logically one says that during maximum eclipse, the moon's view must be blocked totally making it dark and invisible for sometime but it doesn't happen. 

It appears Brick or Copper Red ! 

The reason is at this  stage, the sun's light is still traveling in the earth's atmosphere. We know that the WHITE light is composed of seven colors but as per Rayleigh's Scattering, the color having less wavelength will scatter more i.e prominently Violet,Blue and others. Since the Red color has higher wavelength than other colors, its less scattered and so when the sun's light exits the earth's atmosphere the red color spectrum is dominant. This light falls on the moon and we see its reflection. If there is more dust,volcanic ash etc in atmosphere then Moon's color will appear different !  There is a scale known as Danjon Scale which determines the color of moon which will be seen during total lunar eclipse 

The French astronomer Andre-Louis Danjon proposed a useful five point scale for evaluating the visual appearance and brightness of the Moon during total lunar eclipses. 'L' values for various luminosities are defined as follows:

     L = 0     Very dark eclipse.Moon almost invisible, especially at mid-totality.    

     L = 1     Dark Eclipse, gray or brownish in coloration.                Details distinguishable only with difficulty. 

      L = 2     Deep red or rust-colored eclipse.  Very dark central shadow, while outer edge of umbra is relatively bright.  

     L = 3     Brick-red eclipse.Umbral shadow usually has a bright or yellow rim.   

     L = 4     Very bright copper-red or orange eclipse.Umbral shadow has a bluish, very bright rim.

Courtesy- Arvind Paranjpye

Q.Is Lunar Eclipse SAFE to Watch?

A. Absolutely YES!

Infact I will encourage the readers to hunt with their telescopes or binoculars or simple naked eyes to watch this celestial beauty..

Q.Is Lunar Eclipse connected to any Natural Calamity,disasters etc. 

A. Absolutely not. 

Q.What is the speed of the moon during this projection through Earth's shadow?

A. Around 1.6km/sec 

More questions are welcomed at- 

akshaydeoras@hotmail.com

My Ordinary Opinion about Multiverse

Alutsyah Luthfian | Create Your Badge


When the electricity went down in my area, i think of this: In the darkness, I feel that every movement I made is always in positive magnitude, since i don't know to where i go (if i ignore my own sense of "going back", "going front", and "going upward" and also "going downward"). This could be applied to time: we are all plunged in the darkness of time.
After that, I thought that this universe has maximum 7 dimension, with the first 3 dimensions are related to the properties of physical things, and the next 3 dimensions are related to time, in which we can't feel its presence.
The uppermost 1 dimension is related to the position of the Supreme Being whose control the all 6 dimensions below Him.
That's it, this is only my opinion.

Earthquake in Turkey

Recently, Turkey is shocked with a 7.2 Magnitude Earthquake. Based on fault plane solution below, grabbed from USGS, the earthquake has coming from a thrust fault. This fault is resulted from the meeting of Arabian and Eurasian plate. The earthquake was occur in a fault probably dipping at 50 degrees, Slipping at 73 degrees, and Striking 101 degrees relative to the north.

Based on Intensity map, released by USGS, the 2011 Turkey earthquake has a peak ground acceleration of >30 percent of gravitational acceleration. This still permit people to walk in earth during earthquake, but this doesn't allow some building to endure.

Below is a seismograph record of Turkey earthquake from Kislovodsk station in Russia.

If God and time permit, I will write more in this article.

Strong Earthquake hits Turkey.. The intensity map shows intensity 9 damage near Van,Turkey

Strong Earthquake hits Turkey.. The intensity map shows intensity 9 damage near Van,Turkey

Akshay Deoras
www.akshaydeoras.blogspot.com
www.metdweather.blogspot.com

Earthquake of Magnitude 5.0 jolts Southern Gujarat

* By Akshay Deoras

A Light Moderate Earthquake measuring 5.0 On Richter Scale by USGC occured at 2248 IST 20km SE of Sasangir near Vansthil town in Junagadh Dist ( Epicenter)
The tremors were felt across a wide region as it was a comparitively shallow earthquake at a depth of around 15.5km at a distance of 38km Southward from Junagadh annd 126km SSW of Rajkot.
The maximum shaking happened in Junagadh dist, Amreli,Visavadar where very light damage is expected. In Ahmadabad, very light shaking happened as the p wave travelled and caused the shaking for around 25 seconds forcing people to come out of their homes. The epicenter cordinates are
21.18N,70.540 E

Akshay Deoras
www.akshaydeoras.blogspot.com
www.metdweather.blogspot.com

Another strong M class flare in progress

NOAA HAS UPGRADED THE RADIO BLACKOUT TO R2 LEVEL
A STRONG M CLASS FLARE IS IN PROGRESS AND MAY REACH TO X CLASS

Akshay Deoras
www.akshaydeoras.blogspot.com
www.metdweather.blogspot.com

Hyperactive Sunspot 1302!

Severe SolarWX
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster

The hyperactive sunspot 1302 which is near the North East limb of the sun has produced 2 X ray flares now and 3-4 M class flare..
The sunspot produced an X 1.4 flare on 22nd and then some M class flares...
However today at around 0940 UTC the sunspot produced X 1.9 Solar Flare.. Associated with it another M class flare was produced and has onset a R2 Blackout...
Also the proton event from 22nd sept has led to S1 Solar Radiation Storm...
Sunspot 1302 HAS TREMENDOUS POTENTIAL FOR RELEASING EARTH DIRECTED X FLARES...

STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES!!

Akshay Deoras
www.akshaydeoras.blogspot.com
www.metdweather.blogspot.com

Magnitude 6.9 Earthquake strikes Sikkim,India

I am very unfortunate to announce that a Moderate Earthquake of 6.9 on richter scale ( USGC) has happened with the Epicenter at Sikkim.

*** FOR THE NEXT 24HRS, THERE IS A STRONG THREAT FOR SOME AFTERSHOCKS IN THE REGION. EACH AFTERSHOCK RESEMBLES AN EARTHQUAKE****


**** PEOPLE IN TALL BUILDINGS AND OTHER AREAS MUST WATCH OUT FOR THIS *** 


*** DOS AND DONTS DURING OR AFTER EARTHQUAKE***


  ‎03322145486

EMERGENCY HELPLINE NUMBER FOR SIKKIM EARTHQUAKE

************************************************************************

Img Courtesy- AP

As per USGC, the earthquake struck at 27.72N,88.06E which is around 68 km (42 miles) NW of Gangtok, Sikkim, India
119 km (73 miles) NNW of Shiliguri, West Bengal, India
272 km (169 miles) E of KATHMANDU, Nepal
572 km (355 miles) N of Kolkata (Calcutta), West Bengal, India

The epicenter was about 19.7km deep which definitely can be considered as fortunate because earthquakes at shallow areas are very likely to create more damage. 

The Earthquake happened at around 0610PM IST and datas from USGC confirming that  V to VI th intensity shaking was reported around the epicenter that is in the ENTIRE SIKKIM AREA,NORTH WEST BENGAL AND EASTERN NEPAL AND NORTHERN BANGLADESH

*** AS PER USGC SCALE, THESE INTENSITY EARTHQUAKES ARE PRONE TO CAUSE LIGHT DAMAGE BUT IN INDIA, SUCH A STRONG EARTHQUAKE OFTEN CAUSES LARGE DAMAGE ESPECIALLY TO LIFE AND PROPERTY

AFTER THE MAIN EARTHQUAKE, 2 AFTERSHOCKS WERE REPORTED

1ST AFTERSHOCK-

 06:41:57PM IST 

MAGNITUDE- 4.8 

** THIS AFTERSHOCK WAS JUST 25KM WNW OF GANGTOK*** 

2ND AFTERSHOCK

07:24:18PM IST

MAGNITUDE- 4.6

*** THIS EARTHQUAKE WAS 34KM W OF GANGTOK***

---------------------------- ------------------------------------ ------------------------------- ------------------------------------ -----------------------

DAMAGES- 

COURTESY- CNN IBN 

 The DGP of Sikkim said that many buildings were damaged. He also said that roads were blocked and people were stranded on roads. He said that the Sikkim Chief Minister Pawan Chamling has called for an emergency meeting.

Arvind Kumar, Principal Resident Commissioner of Sikkim said that there was excessive damage in the northern parts of Sikkim. He also said that the rescue operations had started in the area. 

There were also reports of landslides following the earthquake in areas around Sikkim and also Darjeeling.

The Prime Minister also spoke to the Sikkim Chief Minister and offered all help. The Prime Minister also directed the Cabinet Secretary to call for an emergency meeting.

There were reports of damages from Bihar. Two buildings collapsed in Katihar in Bihar. The NTPC power plant in Kahalgaon in Bihar has also been shut down because of the earthquake following which North Bihar was under power crisis. 

METD WEATHER- There has been a massive power cut right now in Sikkim due to the earthquake. 

Areas in Northern West Bengal also are in darkness right now. 

** TELEPHONE LINES HAVE BEEN DAMAGED IN SIKKIM**

Fatalities are being reported from Nepal and minor from Sikkim especially from Khatmandu. 

The tremors also were reported on light scale in Delhi,Uttar Pradesh,Bihal ( DAMAGE BEING REPORTED AROUND NALANDA),Jharkhand,North East India

SCIENTIFIC DETAILS 

THE EARTHQUAKE HAPPENED AT A VERY OLD AND LESS ACTIVE FAULT LINE. 

THE INDIAN PLATE IN THIS REGION THRUSTS BENEATH THE EURASIAN PLATE. OUT OF THE SOME THRUST FAULTS, 

COURTESY- ASC INDIA.
THE HAZARD MAP FOR SIKKIM

MBT - MAIN BOUNDARY THRUST

MCT- MAIN CENTRAL THRUST

HFF- HIMALAYAN FRONTAL THRUST

THE ABOVE IMAGE SHOWS THE MAIN EARTHQUAKE I.E GIANT SQUARE FOLLOWED BY 2 AFTERSHOCKS ALL PRODUCED NEAR THE THRUST FAULTS.

THE USGC INTENSITY MAP SHOWING YELLOW/GREEN REGION OF INT V TO IV SHOWING MODERATE SHAKING

SHAKING INTENSITY USGS. THIS MAP WILL BE UPDATED RAPIDLY AS MORE UPDATES FLY IN

DUE TO THIS NATURE OF THRUST FAULTS, GOVT OF INDIA HAD PUT SIKKIM IN THE ZONE IV SEISMIC HAZARD. 

PAST EARTHQUAKES 

COURTESY- ASC,INDIA

 18 earthquakes of magnitude 5 or greater over the past 35 years within 100 km of the epicenter of the September 18 event. The largest of these was a magnitude 6.1 earthquake in November of 1980, which occurred 75 km to the southeast. ( USGC)

Largest Instrumented Earthquake in Sikkim
19 November 1980 - Near Gangtok (Sikkim-West Bengal Border region), 6.1 Ms (PAS)
19:00:46.9 UTC, 27.39N, 88.75E, 17 kms depth
Eight people were injured in Gangtok and there was also minor damage reported from the city. the quake was felt in eastern and north-eastern India, Bangladesh, Bhutan and Nepal.

Significant Earthquakes in Sikkim
The following list briefly outlines known earthquakes in this region. General locations are provided for historical events for which "generalized" epicentral co-ordinates are available.Some events which were significant for other reasons are also included. This list will be updated whenever newer information is available. Please note that Magnitude and Intensity are NOT THE SAME. All events are within the state or union territory covered on this page unless stated otherwise.

Acronyms Used:D=Depth, OT=Origin Time, Mw=Moment Magnitude, Ms=Surface Wave magnitude, Mb=Body Wave Magnitude, ML=Local Magnitude, M?=Magnitude Type unknown

15 January 1934 - Indo-Nepal Border region, Mw 8.0
14:21:25 IST / 08:43:25 UTC, 26.50N, 86.50E
Nearly 10,500 people were killed in Bihar and Nepal. Damage was also reported from many towns in Sikkim.

12 January 1965 - West of Gangtok (Indo-Nepal Border region), 6.1 (TS)
13:32:24 UTC, 27.60N, 88.00E

19 November 1980 - Near Gangtok (Sikkim-West Bengal Border region), 6.1 Ms (PAS)
19:00:46.9 UTC, 27.39N, 88.75E, 17 kms depth
Eight people were injured in Gangtok and there was also minor damage reported from the city. The quake was felt in eastern and north-eastern India, Bangladesh, Bhutan and Nepal.

21 August 1988 -  Udaipur Gahri, Nepal (Indo-Nepal Border region), Mw 6.8 (NEIC)
23:09:09 UTC / 04:39:09 IST, 26.755N 86.616
Nearly 900 people were killed in the border districts of Nepal and Bihar, India. Damage was also reported from Kathmandu and Sikkim. Felt over much of northern and eastern India and much of Nepal. Felt as far as New Delhi.

14 February 2006 - Mana, North Sikkim, Mw 5.3 
27.377 N, 88.362 E, D=020.1 kms, OT=00:55:23 UTCA moderate earthquake struck the Sikkim Himalayas on 14 February 2006 at 06:25 AM local time resulting in two deaths and minor damage to property in the state of Sikkim, India. It had a magnitude of Mw=5.3. This is the strongest earthquake in this immediate region since a Mw=6.3 earthquake on 19 November 1980.

18 May 2007 - Nambu, North Sikkim, Mb 4.6 
27.302 N, 88.159 E, D=021.1 kms, OT=12:40:02 UTC
A light earthquake struck the Sikkim Himalayas on 18 May 2007 at 18:10 PM local time resulting in some panic in the state of Sikkim, India. It had a magnitude of Mb=4.6.

20 May 2007 - Singyang, North Sikkim, Mb 5.0 27.303 N, 88.191 E, D=021.1 kms, OT=14:18:18 UTC
A moderate earthquake struck the Sikkim Himalayas on 20 May 2007 at 19:48 PM local time resulting in some panic and minor damage in the state of Sikkim, India. It had a magnitude ofMb=5.0.
 

Magnetic Field remains unsettled due to CME impacts

Severe SolarWx
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster

Soon after the earths magnetic field was hit by CME,Kp index reached 7 and there was a G2 Geomagnetic Storming and Auroras were seen as far has Michigan,North Dakota in USA. As seen from datas from the ACE spacecraft,Earths magnetic field continues to face the CME impacts
The IMF has tripped back to North which will reduce intensity of Auroras as during the Northward Bz,solar wind is deflected by earths magnetic field.
It does appear that storming conditions shall persis till end of 11th Sept with periods of Active conditions. But a coronal hole high speed stream is enroute to earth which may cause minor storming on 12th Sept. The sunspot 1283 which is the most active sunspot of Solar Cycle 24 has now rotated away from earth facing side of sun

Stay tuned for updates

Akshay Deoras
www.akshaydeoras.blogspot.com
www.metdweather.blogspot.com
Via- Mobile Blogging

GEOMAGNETIC STORM G2 ONSETS

A GEOMAGNETIC STORM OF INTENSITY LEVEL 2 IS NOW IN PROGRESS WITH KP=6 AND IMF TRIPPED SOUTHWARDS

HIGH LATITUDE OBSERVERS SHALL WATCH FOR AURORAS TONIGHT 


DETAILS LATER

Partial CME heading towards Earth

SEVERE SOLARWX
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster

AR 1283 - THE MOST ACTIVE SUNSPOT ON THE EARTH FACING SIDE OF THE SUN


This was the second X class ( X1.8) SOLAR FLARE FROM SUNSPOT 1283 ON 2238 UT,7TH SEPT 2011. 
The event also caused a X ray Blackout of R3 intensity shortly as the X rays caused blackout on the sunlit side of the earth. 


This Solar Flare also released Coronal Mass Ejection which was recorded by STEREO A and can be seen here and also here


Magnetic Fields-
The Sunspot AR 1283 is having symmetric magnetic field lines and has produced two X class flares already
This is according to the paper published by SEVERE SOLARWX where sunspots having symmetric magnetic field lines are capable of producing high end M class to X class flares.




THUS SEVERE SOLARWX HAS 4 STRAIGHT EVIDENCES FOR THE PAPER


CME FORECAST
THE M 5.3 SOLAR FLARE OF 6TH SEPT 2011 HURLED CME TOWARDS THE EARTH WHEN WAS EXACTLY INFRONT OF THE SUNSPOT. THE X 2.1 SOLAR FLARE ALSO HURLED SOME CME BEING SQUARELY DIRECTED AND YESTERDAYS 1.8 JOINING THE GANG. 


IT DOES APPEAR THAT EARTH IS VERY 


ABOVE- 
THE THREE PEAKS ( ONE M CLASS AND TWO X CLASS FLARES) FROM AR 1283 MAKING IT THE MOST ACTIVE SUNSPOT 




LIKELY TO THE PARTIAL CME ON 10TH SEPT LATE NIGHT HOURS ( GMT) 
THE EFFECT SHALL BE MINIMAL WITH LIKELYHOOD OF G1 GEOMAGNETIC STORM AND IF THE IMF TRIPS SOUTHWARD DURING IMPACT, AURORAS SHALL DISPLAY AT HIGHER LATITUDES


STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES 


FOLLOW SEVERE SOLAR WX @ SSW FB

X 2.1 SOLAR FLARE FROM SUNSPOT 1283

SEVERE SOLARWX
AKSHAY DEORAS
SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTER

THE SUNSPOT AR 1283 HAS HURLED AN X 2.2 SOLAR FLARE AT 2220 UTC,6TH SEPT 2011 AFTER PRODUCING M CLASS FLARE YESTERDAY

THE SOLAR FLARE ALSO CARRIED CORONAL MASS EJECTION WITH IT AS BEING INDICATED BY THE DATAS FROM STEREO SPACECRAFT.

HOWEVER DETAILED ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT CME SHALL PASS AWAY FROM THE EARTH AS CME WAS DIRECTED AT AN ANGLE OF AROUND 110 DEGREE WHERE ANGLE OF EARTH WITH RESPECT TO SUN FOR STEREO A IS AROUND 180 DEGREE

THE EVENT PRODUCED A R3 BLACKOUT AND HAS SENT A STREAM OF CHARGED AND ACCELERATED PROTONS TOWARDS THE EARTH AND MIGHT  ONSET A S1 SOLAR RADIATION STORM

THE SOLAR FLARE CAN BE NOTED AS THE BRIGHT MARK NEAR THE CENTRAL SIDE OF THE SUN.

STAY TUNED FOR THE UPDATES

Sunspot 1271 has cross symmetric magnetic field!

SEVERE SOLARWX

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

Present sunspots on the Earthside of the sun- 

AR 1274,1275 ,1271,1272 

The earth side of the sun has four brief sunspots. The region of concern is the sunspot 1271. NOAA forecasters expect a 20% chance of M class flares from  AR 1271 

 

The Space Weather Lab is expecting tremendous 58% flare chance of X and M class

However as per the theory put forth by Severe SolarWX

Sunspot 1271 is having cross symmetric magnetic field and hence it doesn't seen to be capable of producing a high end M class or X class flares. Initial C class followed by isolated M low class flare shall be there but after a brief period of time ( 2 days later or so)

STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES!

Akshay Deoras
Severe Earth & Space Weather Forecaster,Astrophysics article writer.

Web-
www.akshaydeoras.blogspot.com
www.metdweather.blogspot.com

        www.scribd.com/akshaydeoras

Sick Test Problem: Math

Posted by Alutsyah Luthfian

Sorry I'm trashing here with math. Actually, it was a problem given during a university admission test. A Math problem, actually university semester II Calculus. Why I should say sick? It wasn't attested in Big-Three Indonesian university; Bandung Tech Institute, dubbed to be the best technological university in Indonesia didn't give the problem at its admission test (Bandung Tech always give some mind tricking problems, in which an excelled student can do it fast by finding the patterns), neither did my Gadjah Mada nor University of Indonesia.

This problem came from a university in Semarang: Diponegoro University.

The problem is like this:





Seems easy at a glance. But it is actually harder. We should integrate it from the inner part dx then we do the outer part dy.

1.The first thing we do is integrate the inner part,

which is equal to:

After that, we integrate the outer part,

becoming

This second part is the hardest part

2. Integrating the e^y2 is not as easy as I thought. After dealing with u=y² form, the equation goes ill by the form 2×√u which is adding up to infinity if we try to integrate it by multiple integral method (and I will talk about this later). It is known that the function f(y)= e^y2 is an even function, a function in which f(-y)=f(y). But the problem is, the function's value goes ∞ when x approaches ∞; so the simplest thing we can do when integrating e^y2 is integrate it by mean of series. A function f(x) could be approached approximately with an infinite series:

Nah, you can replace a with any real number. Usually, scholars use the number 0 for simplicity, and putting 0 as a will make the series called MacLaurin Series.
Now we replace the y in f(y)= e^y2 into x and the function becomes f(x)=e^x2. The infinite series for f(x) when a =0 becomes:

If you prefer to put another real number as a, then this equation could be used.

Getting that kind of equation, we could easily integrate the f(x)=e^x2 by integrating its series expansion.

But in this article i prefer not to do the exponential integration that way.

Why not? Because the xⁿ in the series expansion grows significantly smaller than the exponential function. I'm intending to give a more precise result using error function. I will do the error function with the touch of series expansion also; but if i do with the error function, the result will precise up to 10^-5 order.

ERROR FUNCTION

So what another silly thing you would suck on my head?
OK readers, take a break please. Yeah now I want to give you an important function, it is error function. Built on the basis of Gaussian integral, the error function was firstly used only at statistical data processing. Now this function is used also in advanced physics, thus this function is given as early as one or two year after Indonesians entering science faculties in university. I will only give you some basics of error function relating to the sick math problem above.

Go back to the exponent integral, we could further analyze the integral like below. Note that the e^y2 is replaced by e^x2.

Then,

This is it. The erfi(z) function is defined by:

And so, its MacLaurin series is

Erfi(z) or erfi(x) series when x=∞ is calculated by integrating the e^x2 dx endlessly.

The picture below give an image on how to do it.

so, the erfi(x) becomes:

That are two kinds of series expansion for erfi function. We should use the erfi MacLaurin series when calculating figures less than 1 or more than -1. The erfi series expansion at x=∞ is used when calculating figures more than 1 or less than -1. If the figure is 1, you can use either the infinite or MacLaurin series.

Then, we do the erfi(ln 2) - erfi(1) by means of series expansion. We do them by mean of erfi MacLaurin series, this yields -0.72270466, just differ 2 x 10^-8 with the result yielded by a math software.

Next, the final result is:

The term 0.02677468 can be rounded to be 0.0267747 which differs 8 x 10^-9 with computer's computation result.

X 6.9 Solar flare from AR 1263.. The biggest of So 24

SEVERE SOLARWX
AKSHAY DEORAS
SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTER

SEVERE SOLARWX CONDEMNS THE LATE POST ON SUCH A HISTORICAL EVENT.

THE SUNSPOT AR 1263 HAS HURLED THE BIGGEST SOLAR FLARE OF SOLAR CYCLE 24 - X 6.9 SOLAR FLARE AT 0805Z,AUGUST 9 2011.

SUNSPOT 1263 AS WAS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS FEW POSTS HAD SYMMETRICAL MAGNETIC FIELD AS AGAINST THAT OF AR 1261 WHICH DIDNT PRODUCE ANY X CLASS FLARE.
SEVRE SOLARWX HAS GATHERED SUFFICIENT PROOF NOW TO PRESENT A CONFIRMED REPORT ON THE SUNSPOTS WHICH PRODUCE MAXIMUM SOLAR FLARES

THE FLARE ALSO SENT TREMENDOUS X RAYS TOWARDS EARTH CAUSING AN R3 RADIO BLACKOUT THAT DISRUPTED SIGNALS IN HF AND VLF ZONES!

Level Consequences X Ray-Flux Frequency

R3

Strong

HF Radio: Wide area blackout of HF radio communication, loss of radio contact for about an hour on sunlit side of Earth. Navigation: Low-frequency navigation signals degraded for about an hour.

X1 (10-4)

175 per cycle (140 days per cycle)

Courtesy- NOAA/SWPC

THE FLARE HAS ALSO PRODUCED STRONG CORONAL MASS EJECTION BUT AS THE SUNSPOT WAS AWAY FROM GEO-EFFECTIVE SIDE OF THE EARTH, THE CME IS NOT EARTH DIRECTED.

DATAS FROM THE SPACE WEATHER LAB ALSO CONFIRM THIS FACT.

HOWEVER THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SOME SQUARED CME SHALL BE HEADING TOWARDS THE EARTH BUT SEVERE SOLARWX DOESN'T ENCOURAGE THIS NEWS NOW

.IF SUCH CME HAD BEEN EARTH DIRECTED THEN THERE WOULD HAVE BEEN ATLEAST A G4 GEOMAGENTIC STORM.. THE SUNSPOT MISSED IT BY JUST FEW DAYS!!!!

ALL THE THREE X CLASS FLARES IN THE SOLAR CYCLE - 24 HAS PROVED THAT THE THEORY PUT FORTH BY SEVERE SOLARWX IN CLASSIFYING THOSE SUNSPOTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG FLARES ( HIGH END M TO X CLASS) IS CORRECT

SO, SEVERE SOLARWX SHALL PUT FORTH A MODIFIED PAPER IN CONTINUATION TO THIS PAPER

Editors Note-

It has become necessary to inform the people about The Sun and its effects after CME,Flares.

In association to this, The Hitavada - Leading Newspaper of Central India offered an opportunity to me for publishing an article on the basics about the Sun.

The article as published in The Hitavada is posted above in the image form

- Akshay Deoras

Akshay Deoras
www.akshaydeoras.blogspot.com
www.metdweather.blogspot.com

Geomagnetic Storm decreasing but might increase again due to one shockwave of CME

The Massive G3 Geomagnetic Storm which had set in during late night hours of GMT of 5th August 2011 is still active but intensity has lowered down to G2. The Kp index which peaked at Kp=8 has now gone down to Kp=6 which is a Moderate Storm level.

As posted below image is prepared by the Space Weather Lab. The yellow circle is earth and you can see the massive zone ( Red,Pink White plume) was that CME which caused a G3 Geomagnetic Storm

As can be seen further, a second shockwave is trailing behind ( its a part of the first CME). As of 0600hrs GMT on 6th Aug 2011 the second shockwave shall hit the IMF again and likely increase in the intensity of storming

that is Kp can jump again to 7 and level 3 G3 Geomagnetic Storm can develop as the effects of first CME hit aren't subsidizing that quickly. IF so happens, then the earth again shall get Glancing glow from the Solar Wind and more auroras can be seen

At the same time, GPS users,Power Grid Operators shall remain cautious as there is likely malfunctioning during the Storming.

GPS users *** particularly must remain alert during local evening hours ( Dusk period)

STAY TUNED FOR MORE UPDATE

Akshay Deoras
Severe Earth & Space Weather Forecaster,Astrophysics article writer.

Web-
www.akshaydeoras.blogspot.com
www.metdweather.blogspot.com

www.scribd.com/akshaydeoras

MAJOR GEOMAGNETIC STORMING IN PROGRESS!

SEVERE SOLARWX
AKSHAY DEORAS
SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTER

AS WAS BEING EXPECTED

A MAJOR G3 GEOMAGNETIC STORM IS IN PROGRESS! THE SHOCKWAVE FROM CME HIT THE EARTH AT AROUND 1800HRS GMT ON 5TH AUG 2011

THE Bt index WAS AS HIGH AS 40nT AND THE KP SURGED TO 8 ( K=8) ON GOES SATELLITE AND AT BOULDER,CO KP=7 AND SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTRE CATEGORIZED AS G3 GEOMAGNETIC STORM

THE STORMING IS STILL IN PROGRESS AND S1 SOLAR RADIATION STORM

**** PEOPLE LIVING AROUND AND ABOVE 50 DEG LATITUDE SHALL GET TO SEE AURORAS***

PEOPLE LIVING IN NORTHERN NETHERLANDS,GERMANY,NEW HAMPSHIRE ( USA) ARE SEEING AURORAS!

AS PER SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION ( NOAA), THE POSSIBLE HAZARDS FROM G3 GEOMAGNETIC STORM

EFFECTS KP FREQUENCY

G3

Strong

Power systems: voltage corrections may be required, false alarms triggered on some protection devices. Spacecraft operations: surface charging may occur on satellite components, drag may increase on low-Earth-orbit satellites, and corrections may be needed for orientation problems. Other systems: intermittent satellite navigation and low-frequency radio navigation problems may occur, HF radio may be intermittent, and aurora has been seen as low as Illinois and Oregon (typically 50° geomagnetic lat.)**.

Kp = 7

200 per cycle (130 days per cycle)

GEOMAGNETIC SUDDEN IMPULSE-ARRIVAL OF CME ON THE EARTH

SEVERE SOLARWX
AKSHAY DEORAS
SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTER
NAGPUR,0045HRS 6TH AUG 11 IST

FLASH SNIPPET-
THE ACE DATA HAS CONFIRMED THAT A SHOCKWAVE OF CORONAL MASS EJECTION FROM THE SUN HAS HIT THE EARTHS MAGNETIC FIELD EXACTLY AT THE TIME PREDICTED BY SEVERE SOLAR WX USING THE SPACE WEATHER LAB PRODUCTS. AS SEEN FROM THE ATTACHED IMAGE,THE IMF (INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD RECEIVED A SHOCKWAVE MEASURING AROUND 40 Bt. ALSO THE IMF HAS TRIPPED SOUTH (SOUTHWARD Bz) WHICH SHALL ALLOW THE SOLAR WIND TO POUR IN EARTHS MAGNETOSPHERE AS THE SUN AND EARTHS MAGNETIC FIELDS ARE CANCELLED AT A POINT DURING SOUTHWARD Bz...

THE SOLAR WIND ALSO PICKED UP TO AROUND 565 KM/SEC AND AROUND 15 PROTONS/CM square.

THUS THE POSSIBILITY OF INCREASED SOLAR PROTON FLUX HAS ARISEN ( S1RADIATION STORM ALREADY IN PROGRESS SINCE EARLY MORNING OF 4TH AUG)
*** S2 LEVEL RADIATION POSSIBLE**

HIGH LATITUDE OBSERVERS SHALL WATCHOUT FOR AURORAS AND OVERALL PEOPLE DEALING WITH COMMUNICATION,POWER GRIDS,PIPELINES SHALL WATCH OUT!

www.akshaydeoras.blogspot.com
www.metdweather.blogspot.com

DAY OF GEOMAGNETIC STORM

SEVERE SOLARWX

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

The 2 CME which are enroute to Earth have merged into a single and powerful wave of disturbance that is likely to hit the Earth's Magnetic Field around 1800hrs GMT today i.e 5th Aug 2011. The CME shall be travelling at around 750km/sec during the impact.

NOAA forecasters expect this CME to cause a G2-G3 Geomagnetic Storming and S2 Radiation storm. THE SOLAR RADIATION STORM IS STILL IN PROGRESS SINCE 04TH AUGUST MORNING GMT WITH S1 INTENSITY AND SHALL BE ENHANCED WHEN ABUNDANT CHARGED PARTICLES REACH.

ACTIVE GEOMAGNETIC STORM,RADIATION STORM SHALL PERSISTS PERIODICALLY TILL 7TH AUG 2011

FRESH! SUNSPOT AR 1261 RELEASE M 9.3 SOLAR FLARE.THIRD MAJOR CORONAL MASS EJECTION RELEASED

SEVERE SOLARWX

AKSHAY DEORAS

SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTER

MARKING ITS RECORD,SUNSPOT 1261 HAS RELEASED ANOTHER HIGH END M CLASS FLARE MEASURED M 9.3 AT ABOUT 0357 UT

THIS ALSO PRODUCED A R2 LEVEL RADIO BLACKOUT!

JUST IN-

DATAS FROM STEREO A INDICATE A STRONG CORONAL MASS EJECTION DUE TO THIS FLARE WHICH HAS ALREADY STARTED ITS JOURNEY TOWARDS THE EARTH

THIS IS HISTORIC,

THREE DAYS,

FOUR CME

3 MAJOR EN-ROUTE THE EARTH!

**** SOLAR RADIATION STORM LIKELY*****

THE POWERFUL CME ALSO EMITED TONS OF CHARGED PROTONS TOWARDS THE EARTH WHICH ARE NOW LANDING ON THE EARTH AND LIKELY CAUSE A S1 RADIATION STORM!

***

STAY TUNED FOR ALERTS