Space Shuttle Discovery all set for FINAL Launch

A COUNTDOWN TIMER IS AVAILABLE ON THE BLOG REGARDING THE LAUNCH OF STS 133

LIVE STREAM FROM KENNEDY SPACE CENTER,FL VIA NASA TV SHALL BE SET UP ON THE FRONT PAGE OF BLOG AT THE TOP ON 0530HRS GMT,24TH FEB 2011

On the 6th attempt of launch! Space Shuttle Discovery is all set for a launch on its final mission from Kennedy Space Center,FL on mission STS 133

Launch is targeted on 24th Feb 2011 at 0450PM EST (21:50:13) UTC ( 24th Feb) , 03:20:13 hrs IST ( 25th Feb)

As mentioned earlier, the launch has been scrubbed away 5 times due to technical faults due to OMS pod leak and bad weather, Hydrogen leak at the ground umbilical carrier plate as the last reason for the delay.

Below is a tabular display of scrubbed dates of launches and the associated reason

Launch attempts

All times Eastern Time, first 5 are while daylight saving time was in effect (EDT), attempt 6 is during outside of daylight saving (EST)

Attempt	Planned	Result	Turnaround	Reason	Decision point	Weather go %	Notes
1	1 Nov 2010, 4:40:00 pm	scrubbed[46]	---	technical[47]	29 Oct 2010, 10:00 am(T-11 hour hold)	80%	OMS Pod leak[47]
2	2 Nov 2010, 4:18:00 pm	scrubbed[48]	0 days, 23 hours, 38 minutes	technical[48]	(T-11 hour hold)	70%	OMS Pod leak[48]
3	3 Nov 2010, 3:52:00 pm	scrubbed[49]	0 days, 23 hours, 34 minutes	technical[49]	2 Nov 2010, 5:40 pm(T-11 built-in hold)	70%	Electrical fault in backup SSME controller.
4	4 Nov 2010, 3:29:54 pm	scrubbed[50]	0 days, 23 hours, 38 minutes	weather[51][52]	4 Nov 2010, 6:25 am	20%	Decision made at pre-tanking weather briefing to reset clock to T-11 hold and delay ~24 hours due to rainy conditions.[51][53]
5	5 Nov 2010, 3:04:01 pm	scrubbed	0 days, 23 hours, 34 minutes	technical	5 Nov 2010, 12:00 pm(T-6 hold)	60%	Hydrogen leak detected at ground umbilical carrier plate (GUCP)[54]
6	24 Feb 2011, 4:50:24 pm		111 days, 1 hours, 46 minutes			80%

METD WEATHER-

The weather stands excellent for launch with light winds temp in upper 25C and lower 17C and good visibility with partly cloudy conditions

"GO" FOR LAUNCH FROM METD WEATHER

80% ACCEPTABLE CONDITIONS FROM NASA

Lets hope that no technical fault snags the launch this time

Geomagnetic Storm G1 onsets. M6.6 Solar Flare causes Radio Blackout

HYPERACTIVE DAY!

SEVERE SOLARWX

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

THE KP INDEX HAS REACHED 5 and indicates ONSET of Geomagnetic Storm G1

Kp reached 5 at around 0900UTC.Further Storming is expected and G3 Geomagnetic storm probability can't be ruled out.

M6.6 Solar Flare-

At around 1011UTC, Sunspot 1158 released another Solar Flare of X ray flux M6.6 category. Shortly after this release, Moderate Level RADIO BLACKOUT i.e R2 was noticed on the sunlit side of the earth.

The arriving datas from STEREO shall indicate whether Coronal Mass Ejection has been hurled out or now. Being it very strong, I expect a CME and might be directed towards the earth

CME hits the earth !

SEVERE SOLARWX

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

The Anticipated Coronal Mass ejections from 15th Feb and 13th Feb events have arrived which was detected by series of shocks recorded by the ACE spacecraft

The earth is having a magnetic field. Sun's magnetic field known as Interplanetary magnetic field(IMF). These two fields are in contact at Magnetopause. Earth's magnetic field is directed towards North and if the IMF points South then due to opposite in nature, IMF partly cancels earth's magnetic field at the point of contact. This phenomena is known as "southward B_z"

This results in pouring in of Solar Wind which triggers Auroras.

The Bz index has reached to 30nT meaning passing of shockwave ( 5-6UTC)

Kp index is now unsettled with level 4 and its expected to reach to 5 indicating G1 storm

High latitude observers must remain alert for Auroras.

GEOMAGNETIC STORM APPROACHING EARTH as Coronal Mass ejection nears!

1st image ( from top) is of 0347UTC,16th Feb. At left most side you can see the expanding CME.

2nd Image is of 15:47UTC showing tremendous progress of CME in 12hrs time lapse.

3rd image shows respective positions of Saturn,Earth,CME

Last image( 4th from top) shows ahead view showing CME approaching towards Venus and earth

SEVERE SOALRWX

Akshay Deoras

SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTER

The Coronal Mass ejection from sunspot 1158 which happened with the X2.2 solar flare on 15th Feb is finally heading towards the earth as seen from STEREO BEHIND HI2 and Ahead spacecraft.

Within the period of 12hrs from today early to noon ( GMT), the expanding cloud forward layers have covered around 40-45% distance between Earth and the left most side of window of Stereo image (as of 1547hrs UTC)

The cloud is also heading towards Saturn,Venus

CME shall hit Earth's magnetic field on 17th Feb by afternoon hours ( GMT) resulting into minor storming in late period as magnetic field of earth destabilizes and pouring down some solar wind creating Auroras in High latitude regions

As mentioned earlier, its a series of CME so more action is likely to be reserved on 18th Feb as minor storming is expected.

Thus high latitude observers shall remain alert for Auroras on 17th and 18th Feb

Sunspot 1158-

The Spot is not gone yet!

Sunspot 1158 which shall be remembered for years for producing an X2.2 Flare is slowly rotating away from the earth facing side of the sun. According to my experience, this sunspot is a Delta sunspot with entangled magnetic fields and closeness of Umbra of one pole and penumbra of opposite polarity making appearance of Delta cat due to less than 2 degree separation.

The sunspot has produced around 9 C class flares from X2.2 event and is still looking good for Minor M class flare till 18th Feb 2011

X2.2 SOLAR FLARE FROM 1158 SUNSPOT... SERIES OF GEOMAGNETIC STORM LIKELY TO HIT EARTH

FROM TOP-
FIRST IMAGE- THE NOAA X RAY FLUX SHOWING CLASSIC X CLASS FLARE

SECOND IMAGE IS THE MDI MAGNETOGRAM SHOWING COMPLEX POLARITY AROUND 1158.

THE 14MIN TIME LAPSE IMAGES FROM STEREO BEHIND SHOWING CME ON RIGHT SIDE. CHECK THE POSITION OF STEREO B SPACECRAFT WITH RESPECT TO EARTH-SUN FROM IMAGE BELOW

LAST IMAGE- THE SUNSPOT 1158 WHICH IS MORE THAN 100,000 KM WIDE!

Space Weather Message Code: SUMX01
Serial Number: 68
Issue Time: 2011 Feb 15 0246 UTC

SUMMARY: X-ray Event exceeded X1
Begin Time: 2011 Feb 15 0144 UTC
Maximum Time: 2011 Feb 15 0156 UTC
End Time: 2011 Feb 15 0206 UTC
X-ray Class: X2.2
Location: S20W15
NOAA Scale: R3 - Strong

SEVERE SOLARWX

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

BIGGEST SOLAR FLARE OF THE CYCLE OUT FROM THE SUN

The sunspot 1158 has increasingly grown and released X2.2 FLARE-

The strongest of this cycle EVEN OVERTAKING M6.6 FLARE OF 13TH FEB !!!

**At around 0156UTC, The sunspot 1158 released an X2.2 FLARE with Type II radio emission. This Giant solar flare has been captured on images of Solar Dynamic Observatory....

A giant Radio blackout ( expected to BE R3) is also expected from this X2.2 Flare which shall be effective shortly

Thus solar flare erruption also was connected with Coronal Mass Ejection(CME) as seen from the datas of STEREO spacecraft AND IS DIRECTED TOWARDS EARTH

THE CORONAL MASS EJECTION FROM THIS X2.2 FLARE IS DIRECTED ON A LARGE PATH INCLUDING VENUS AND EARTH.

THE CORONAL MASS EJECTION FROM 13TH FEB EVENT COUPLED WITH CORONAL HOLE STREAM SHALL BE REACHING THE EARTH TODAY OR BY 16TH CAUSING AURORAS AND POSSIBLY A MINOR GEOMAGNETIC STORM.

HOWEVER THE CME FROM 15TH FEB EVENT SHALL REACH EARTH AND CAUSE GEOMAGNETIC STORM ON 17TH FEB-18TH FEB OR SO..

STAY TUNED FOR ALERT AND AURORAS AT HIGHER LATITUDE REGION

. On 13th Feb, a M6 Solar Flare was produced from the same sunspot which hurled tremendous Radio waves which caused a R3 Radio blackout which was experienced by many people on different frequencies..

SPACE WEATHER FORECAST-

15TH FEB- ISOLATED ACTIVE PERIOD

LIKELY AURORAS AT HIGH LATITUDE REGIONS

16TH FEB- ISOLATED MINOR STORM PERIOD AS CME OF 13TH FEB ARRIVES COUPLED WITH CORONAL HOLE STREAM

17TH FEB- SAME EFFECT WITH AURORAS FOR SURE.

LATE PERIODS OF 17-18TH FEB,CME EJECTED DURING X2.2 FLARE SHALL HIT THE EARTH AND CAUSING ANOTHER PERIOD OF ACTIVE GEOMAGNETIC STORM ON EARTH

KP 6!!! GEOMAGNETIC STORM ONSETS

SEVERE SOLARWX

AKSHAY DEORAS

Severe Weather Forecaster

Kp indicators showed a classic value of 6 ( G2 Geomagnetic storm) on late night period of 4th Feb 2011.

From a settled value of 2, graph jumped to 6 when the solar wind stream hit the earth at around 2100hrs UTC. Value of 5 ( G1) was recorded at around 11:59PM and then at 4 at around 3AM (UTC) this morning.

KP values greater than 4 indicate Geomagnetic storm.

HIGH LATITUDE OBSERVERS MUST REMAIN ALERT FOR SPARKLING AURORAS AT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

Solar Wind arrived late than expected between 1-4th Feb.

Space Weather Predictions need more accuracy for sure!

Very large Coronal Hole on the Sun! Likely for a Geomagnetic storm

FIRST IMAGE OF LATE NIGHT PERIOD ON 29TH JAN 2011 SHOWING THE FIRST APPEARANCE OF CORONAL HOLE.

THE SECOND IMAGE IS OF 30TH JAN 2011 SHOWING CORONAL HOLE HAS STARTED ROTATING TOWARDS GEOEFFECTIVE POSITION

SEVERE SOLARWX

Akshay Deoras

Severe Space Weather Forecaster

A very large coronal hole has appeared on the surface of the sun and is rotating towards the Geoeffective position. Coronal Hole are the dark cooler areas on the corona of the sun where there are open magnetic fields ( Unipolar magnetic field) which permit the outflow of solar wind or the high speed coronal hole stream which brings a geomagnetic storm on the earth as the magnetic field of the earth becomes unsettled when the charged particles from the coronal stream strike it.

The coronal hole in in the Northern Hemisphere of the sun and is expected to become Geoeffective

( position from where earth is affected ) very soon as a result of which a geomagnetic storm is likely with Auroras at high latitude regions on the earth.

Unsettled levels in the Kp index ( Indicator of storming conditions) shall remain unsettled on 1st Feb 2011 and Auroras shall be visible in high latitude regions between 1st Feb to 4th Feb or so

A M1 class Solar Flare was erupted from the sun on Jan 28 2011 with giant Coronal Mass Ejection

but the will not affect the earth

Massive Earthquake strikes South Western Pakistan. Tremors felt in India

THE INTENSITY REPORTS FROM DIFFERENT AREAS IN ASIA

THE GRAPH SHOWING DECREASE IN INTENSITY WITH RESPECT TO DISTANCE

THE USGC SHAKE MAP SHOWING MAX.EFFECT NEAR THE EPICENTER

A 7.2 magnitude earthquake on richter scale was recorded in the South Western Periphery of Pakistan close to Afghanisthan border area with the epicenter at isolated region at 28.8382N,63.9473E ( of the order of following distances below)

DISTANCE FROM EPICENTER-

45 km (30 miles) W of Dalbandin, Pakistan

260 km (160 miles) W of Kalat, Pakistan
310 km (190 miles) ESE of Zahedan, Iran
1035 km (640 miles) WSW of ISLAMABAD, Pakistan

1290km from New Delhi

1077km from Ahmedabad

1242km from Dharamshala,Himachal Pradesh

TIMINGS OF EARTHQUAKE

Earthquake was reported at 20:23:26UTC ( 18th Jan 2011) i.e 01:23:26AM LT(19th Jan 2011) at epicenter

THE DEPTH OF THE EARTHQUAKE WAS AROUND 84KM.

( DEPTH OF EARTHQUAKE IS THE AREA WHERE EARTHQUAKE BEGINS TO RUPTURE.

THIS HEIGHT IS RECORDED BELOW SEA LEVEL OR BELOW THE SEISMOLOGY OBSERVATORY)

Tremors of the earthquake were felt at multiple places stretching from Riyadh city,Dubai city,Tehran,Samarkand( Uzbekistan),Kabul,Gwalior( India) and as south as Bangalore( India).

The USGC received responses from -

Dharmashala - Where the Intensity was reported V ( FIVE) ( Moderate Shaking and Light damage expected)

In Pilani, INTENSITY V ( 5) was reported which means Moderate Shaking and minor damage.

Delhi, Gwalior,Noida - Intensity IV( 4) where minor shaking with no damage was recorded

Chandigarh,Jaipur,Jodhpur,Jaisalmer,Mumbai and Bangalore- Intensity- III ( Weak Shaking of the ground and no damage)

The Earthquake's maximum effect ( Intensity ) was reported at

Naushahro Firoz ( In Sindh region),Pakistan and Rudbar in Afghanisthan ( Where INTENSITY WAS VI,6)

In rest areas of the list, Intensty of III,II and I was reported

DAMAGE REPORTS

1} Several Houses were collapsed and damaged in Quetta

** No death reports till yet

2] One person has died due to wall collapse in Pakistan

More damage reports shall be coming as Earthquake must have created extensive damage in Pakistan.In quetta, A woman died of Heart Attack after the earthquake

3] No casualties reported in India

MERCALLI INTENSITY SCALE ( GIVEN BELOW)

COMPARE THE VALUES REPORTED AT PLACES WITH THE DEFINED DAMAGE GIVEN BELOW

I. Instrumental	Not felt by many people unless in favourable conditions.
II. Weak	Felt only by a few people at best, especially on the upper floors of buildings. Delicately suspended objects may swing.
III. Slight	Felt quite noticeably by people indoors, especially on the upper floors of buildings. Many do not recognize it as an earthquake. Standing motor cars may rock slightly. Vibration similar to the passing of a truck. Duration estimated.
IV. Moderate	Felt indoors by many people, outdoors by few people during the day. At night, some awakened. Dishes, windows, doors disturbed; walls make cracking sound. Sensation like heavy truck striking building. Standing motor cars rock noticeably. Dishes and windows rattle alarmingly.
V. Rather Strong	Felt outside by most, may not be felt by some outside in non-favourable conditions. Dishes and windows may break and large bells will ring. Vibrations like large train passing close to house.
VI. Strong	Felt by all; many frightened and run outdoors, walk unsteadily. Windows, dishes, glassware broken; books fall off shelves; some heavy furniture moved or overturned; a few instances of fallen plaster. Damage slight.
VII. Very Strong	Difficult to stand; furniture broken; damage negligible in building of good design and construction; slight to moderate in well-built ordinary structures; considerable damage in poorly built or badly designed structures; some chimneys broken. Noticed by people driving motor cars.
VIII. Destructive	Damage slight in specially designed structures; considerable in ordinary substantial buildings with partial collapse. Damage great in poorly built structures. Fall of chimneys, factory stacks, columns, monuments, walls Heavy furniture moved.
IX. Violent	General panic; damage considerable in specially designed structures, well designed frame structures thrown out of plumb. Damage great in substantial buildings, with partial collapse. Buildings shifted off foundations.
X. Intense	Some well built wooden structures destroyed; most masonry and frame structures destroyed with foundation. Rails bent.
XI. Extreme	Few, if any masonry structures remain standing. Bridges destroyed. Rails bent greatly.
XII. Cataclysmic	Total destruction - Everything is destroyed. Lines of sight and level distorted. Objects thrown into the air. The ground moves in waves or ripples. Large amounts of rock move position. Landscape altered, or leveled by several meters. In some cases, even the routes of rivers are changed.

UPPER ATMOSPHERIC LIGHTNING FROM THUNDERSTORMS AND ANTIMATTER FORMATION

ABOVE IMAGE SHOWING THE LOCATIONS OF SPRITES,BLUE JETS,GAMMA RAY FLASH( TGF),RUNWAY ELECTRONS.

Antimatter formation from Thunderstorms

In a recent discovery announced on 11th Jan 2011, Scientists have detected beams of antimatter produced above a Thunderstorm.

I being a Severe Weather Forecaster with an experience of near 2 years will like to explain the entire scenario as follows

1] Thunderstorm -

Thunderstorm in layman language is a storm that specially can produce lightning,thunder,hails and high velocity winds,rains and in some cases Thundersnow.Scientifically, Thunderstorm is called as an Electrical Storm.

Formation-

Some basic ingredients are required for the formation of a thunderstorm which are moisture,lifting force,Instability.

When there is a blend of moisture in lower level of atmosphere when the dew point temp is over 12C. Thunderstorm formation process also referred as Convection begins.

Convection begins when there is plenty of Instability ( Measured as Convective Available Potential Energy_ CAPE) which happens when the rising parcel of air is warmer than the surrounding environmental air resulting in a positive buoyancy. A lifting force is required for the air to rise. This lifting force is nothing but the rising of less density warmer air.

When all ingredients meet i.e warm air is rising in a moist environment in a unstable atmosphere, warm air stars colliding with cool air in saturated environment leading to condensation where water vapors cool down to form liquid droplets which further cool down to ice crystals called as Clouds WHEN THE WARM AIR EXITS THE SYSTEM AT THE TOP OF THUNDERSTORM CLOUD KNOWN AS ANVILS.

When this rising process continues for a prolonged period, a cloud type known as Cumulonimbus cloud forms which expands vertically instead of expanding horizontally.

Thus a thunderstorm is formed. Due to the difference in mass of ice and water at various positions in thunderstorm, electrical charges and electric potential difference builds up!

When this Electric Potential Difference becomes very large, there is a flash of lightning

Upper Atmospheric Lightning

- Sprites,Blue Jets,Blue Starters,Gigantic Jets,Elves,Terrestrial Gamma Ray flash(TGF)

Many readers may be reading this section for the first time.

As a bolt of lightning strikes down the earth due to large electric potential difference, at the same time there are multiple electric discharges ABOVE A THUNDERSTORM.

These electric discharges above a thunderstorm are known as Upper Atmospheric Lightning.

I have explained SPRITES and TGF below

- SPRITES

Sprites are the massive electric discharges happening above atmosphere starting from an altitude of around 35-40 km till altitude of 90km above sea level.( faint in 35-40 km range and then very bright)

(RIGHT- THE FIRST ACTUAL IMAGE OF SPRITE TAKEN ON 4TH JULY 1994. )

These sprites appear Reddish-Orange color. When there is a positive lightning ( Anvil

to ground lightning) there is an electrical discharge vertically above anvil of thunderstorm which is Sprite.

Terrestrial Gamma-Ray Flash( TGF)

Another product of thunderstorm is TGF. TGF is a burst of gamma rays which happens due to the following process

ANTIMATTER FORMATION

The cosmic rays actually provides electrons which strikes the air inside a thunderstorm. Due to the electric field of thunderstorm, these electrons ionize and some of them are further accelerated in vertical direction. During this process ,these electrons collide with atoms of air and this leads to emission of Gamma Rays and the process is TGF

Now as these Gamma Rays are produces, some electrons using this gamma ray energy become Relativistic electrons( Electrons Travelling at the speed of light) .

When such high velocity gamma rays pass through nucleus, electrons and its anti-

positron is produced. The positron is a particle having negligible mass but charge equal to +1 unit which is an ANTI Electron.

But the Gamma ray blasts off electron and so its remaining component( Positron) is released in Space.

Thus antiparticle of electron is released during thunderstorms.