Still no signs of CME arrival

1ST IMAGE-

THE 3 DAY KP PLOT

2ND IMAGE-

THE AURORAL ORBIT OF 0653 UT ON AUG 11 2010

Nearly 24hrs have passed away from the predicted day of the arrival of the ejected Coronal Mass Ejection from the Sun which happened on 7th August evening.

The Planetary K index of Kp index remained very quiet on Tuesday thus concluding that there were no disturbances in the magnetic field of the earth

The reasons for this probably are the slow movement than expected of the Coronal Mass Ejection and also questions on its intensity

Data from SHO had shown that considerably good CME was ejected from sun and heading in the direction of the earth. If the CME is fast then it makes a very good impact on earth's magnetic field.

If it is slow then it doesn't make any notable effect on the earth's magnetic field.

However solar wind is blowing at 481 Km/sec but the density of proton has decreased

The maximum 24hr Kp was 3. Kp was 2 in the morning,dropped down to 1 and rose to 3 by night

THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT it has maintained the intensity for 6hrs on Wednesday and probably maintains in the arriving datas

My forecast says that Wednesday has the last chance of this storm impact

The intensity has to be less and possibly near a Kp 4-5.Chance of Kp 4 on wednesday- 40%

Kp 5- 10%

Still Auroras orbit shows good auroras in the Higher 60's and I will expect Auroras too in higher latitude also on WEDNESDAY