SEVERE SOLARWXAkshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster
In continuation to the earlier post of M class Flare from AR 1261......
The Sunspot AR1261 produced a M1 class flare at 0619UT,2nd Aug 2011
The datas from STEREO A and B confirmed that the flare also released a strong Coronal Mass Ejection
See Stereo A view here
Stereo B view here
The CME consists of charged particles ( especially charged ions,electrons,protons - part of the strongly heated plasma) that mostly takes 2-3 days to reach the earth.
Based on this,
THE CME CAN BE EXPECTED TO HIT EARTH'S MAGNETIC FIELD ON 4TH AUGUST LATE PERIOD TO 5TH AUGUST AND IF IT RETAINS ITS INTENSITY THEN ACTIVE GEOMAGNETIC STORMING SHALL TAKE PLACE.
POLAR AURORAS ALSO SHALL HAPPEN IF EARTH'S MAGNETIC FIELD TRIPS SOUTH DURING THE CONTACT OF INTENSIFIED SOLAR WIND ( CME ) AND MAGNETIC FIELD.
Sunspot 1263 update-
The Sunspot 1263 now posses symmetrical magnetic field which shall now provide threat for strong flares. This sunspot shall start producing big flares very soon.
Sunspot 1261 has now slightly less threat for Strong Flares.
Forecast-
An Isolated M class flare likely from AR 1261. Less chance for X class flare
Chance of initial C class flares then for some M class flares
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