METD WEATHER CALLS FOR A 66-70% ACCEPTABLE CONDITIONS FOR LAUNCH OF SPACE SHUTTLE DISCOVERY

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Space Shuttle Discovery is all set for its Final Launch on Nov 03 2010 at 0352PM EDT(19:52PM GMT)

Discovery on its mission STS 133 will carry Permanent Multipurpose module Leonardo and thrid of fourth ExPRESS Logistics carrier to ISS,Robonaut 2,Space X Dragon eye sensor,

This is Space Shuttle Discovery's 39th space flight and 35th flight to ISS. Discovery will land back on 14th Nov 2010

Below is the weather forecast for NOV 3 2010

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

CONCERNING - WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR LAUNCH OF SPACE SHUTTLE DISCOVERY ON STS 133 MISSION FROM KENNEDY SPACE CENTER,FL LAUNCH PAD 39A

LAUNCH COMMIT CRITERIA FOR SPACE SHUTTLE AS PREPARED BY NASA

1] TEMPERATURE

1] TANKING WILL NOT BEGIN IF 24HR TEMPERATURE has been BELOW 41F (5C) AT MINIMUM OR ABOVE 99F

THE 24HR MIN TEMP ON 2-3NOV WILL BE AROUND 18-19C WHICH MEANS TANKING WILL BE PERMITTED AND MAX WILL BE AROUND 26C. (84F)

SO FROM WEATHER POINT OF VIEW, TANKING IS "GO"

2] the temperature is lower than the prescribed minimum value for longer than 30 minutes unless sun angle, wind, temperature and relative humidity conditions permit recovery. The minimum temperature limit in degrees F. is specified by the table below and is a function of the five minute average of temperature, wind and humidity. The table becomes applicable when the observed temperature reaches 48 degrees. In no case may the Space Shuttle be launched if the temperature is 35 degrees or colder.

Wind Speed	Relative Humidity
(kts)	0-64%	65-74%	75-79%	80-89%	90-100%
0 - 1	48	47	46	45	44
2	47	46	45	44	43
3	41	41	41	40	39
4	39	39	39	39	38
5 - 7	38	38	38	38	38
8 - 14	37	37	37	37	37
>14	36	36	36	36	36

The above table can be used to determine when conditions are again acceptable for launch if parameters have been out of limits for thirty minutes or less. If longer than thirty minutes, a mathematical recovery formula of the environmental conditions is used to determine if a return to acceptable parameters has been achieved. Launch conditions have been reached if the formula reaches a positive value.

THE ABOVE RULE [2] DOESN'T APPLY AS MIN AND MAX TEMP AT LAUNCH TIME ARE WITHIN THE ACCEPTABLE WINDOW

3] WINDS

RULE- TANKING WILL NOT BEGIN IF THE WIND FORECAST OR ACTUAL IS OVER 42KT FOR NEXT 3HRS

FORECAST- WIND SPEED IS GOING TO REMAIN NEAR 7-9KT DURING THE LAUNCH WINDOW.

FORECAST SAYS "GO" FOR TANKING

RULE- WIND AT LAUNCH VARIES FROM MISSION TO MISSION

4] LIGHTNING

RULE- LIGHTNING AND ELECTRIC FIELD WITH TRIGGERING POTENTIALS ARE NOT ALLOWED

IF FORECAST IS FOR 20% CHANCE OF LIGHTNING THEN TANKING WILL NOT BEGIN

WITHIN 5NM OF LAUNCH PAD, THE ONE MINUTE AVERAGE OF ELECTRIC INTENSITY MUST REMAIN BETWEEN +1KV/M TO -1KV/M

VALUES EXCEEDING THIS LIMIT ARE NOT ALLOWED

FORECAST

The forecast doesn't call for a thunderstorm with lightning potentials and strong electric intensity

So tanking is go from this point of view

5] PRECIPITATION

NOT ALLOWED AT LAUNCH PAD OR AROUND THE LAUNCH PAD

FORECAST- FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30% CHANCE OF RAINS AT LAUNCH WINDOW PERIOD AT KENNEDY SPACE CENTER,FL AND ACCUMULATION AROUND 1"

FORECAST WILL VERY ON THE LAUNCH DAY .

METD WEATHER FORECASTS- ITS A "GO OR NO GO" DECISION AND WILL BE BEST DECIDED ON THE LAUNCH DAY SEEING THE RADAR

6] CLOUD CEILING

RULE- DIRECT OBSERVATION OF SPACE SHUTTLE IS REQUIRED FOR FIRST 8000FT

SO CLOUD CEILING SHOULD BE ABOVE 8000FT

Forecast- Forecast calls for some low clouds of ceiling around 3000ft

The thickness of the clouds is expected to be low and might favor for a launch as in this case, clouds must be light

IN ALL,

METD WEATHER FORECASTS CALLS FOR A 66-70% ACCEPTABLE CONDITIONS AT THE LAUNCH TIME AS AROUND 4 RULES OUT OF 6 PROMINENTLY ARE ACCEPTABLE. NASA CALLS FOR A 70% FAVORABLE CHANCE WHICH IS NEAR TO METD WEATHER'S VALUE

** 30% UNACCEPTABLE CONDITIONS DUE TO LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD CEILING PROBLEM.

** GO OR NO GO FOR LAUNCH WILL BE BETTER DECIDED FEW HOURS TO THE LAUNCH SEEING THE RADAR

Solving the Grandfather paradox

Time travel has always fascinated me and has led me to think like anything since last year.

Concept of time travel is opposed by many paradox and prominently is Grandfather paradox.

Grandfather paradox first introduced by Rene Barjavel in the year 1943 in his book "The Imprudent Traveller"

The paradox says that if someone builds a time machine and goes in past and kills his own biological grandfather who is young and doesn't have children then in future, how are you born ???

This is a paradox and it explains two events connected with each other like killing grandfather and that person not taking birth

It is indeed complicated to solve this problem but the more appropriate solution seems to be different in my opinion

Since the first article I wrote on this blog on Nov 2008, I have been a firm believer that if a person happens to travel back in time and see his grandfather, he will not be able to kill him even if he fires the bullet.

Explanation,( in my views)

A person belonging to 21st century, travels back to 20th century i.e from 2010 to 1934 when his grandfather was very small and didn't have any children. He visits his grandpa's house and sees him of young age, perhaps younger than him. If the grandson decides to kill his grandfather and lifts up a pistol and fires then the bullet will not kill grandpa. Even the bullet will not come outside the pistol in that world. Reason is the bullet,grandson and all belong (born in late period i.e 21st century ). The grandson will just see his grandpa but he will not be able to talk with him,touch him and do any interaction with him. Its similar to a person peeping through a window of a house without the notice of the hose owner.

If time machine is created then people will be able to travel back in time and space but their time travel and presence will not affect daily life of people living in past.

So if a girl is working in kitchen and her grandsons make a time travel from future into the past, girl will not be able to see the grandsons and everything would be normal. Grandsons will see their grandma working in the kitchen but would not talk

In my opinion, another paradox arises

If the girl doesn't marry and doesn't have children then who will travel in time to see her claiming as grandson. So if I decide to travel in future and see my son's daughter then I might not do so since I don't have any child yet and if have don't know whether my son will have a daughter. HE MIGHT HAVE A SON

So is there any restriction in time travel?

Yes, if time travel becomes possible, then their will be restriction. You can't go anywhere in space and time as you wish. You can travel in past because you have some idea who your grandfather was but have no idea who your grandson will be

Possible M class flare from Sunspot 1117,Likely Small Geomagnetic storm on earth on 29-30 OCT

SEVERE SOLARWX

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

As seen in the SOHO coronagraph,

A bright object is passing infront of the earth facing side of the Sun. That bright object is Planet Venus!. Venus is making a pass between Earth and Sun and will continue to appear on the Coronagraph for the next few days. Also seen in the above image is Planet Mercury and Spica

2] GIGANTIC SUNSPOT 1117

In the last few days, Sunspot 1117, has grown very bigger and has transformed from a alpha sunspot to Beta Gamma sunspot.

Alpha sunspot is a sunspot which has only one pole and Beta-Gamma is a sunspot having both the opposite poles situated in a very complex manner such that we can't draw a single continuous line between the opposite poles. i.e Magnetic field line!

When such arrangement takes place, M class

Solar Flare along with CME erruptions become possible due to the differential magnetic reconnection happening in this case.

IF THERE IS A M CLASS ERUPTION FROM 1117 IN THESE 2-3 DAYS THEN THAT WILL BECOME GEOEFFECTIVE FOR EARTH AND MIGHT CAUSE SOME DISTURBANCE IN EARTH'S GEOMAGNETIC FIELD

3] ISOLATED "ACTIVE GEOMAGNETIC STORM " CONDITIONS POSSIBLE

As mentioned in the previous text,

Coronal Mass Ejection hurled from Sun on 26th Oct 2010 is on its way towards the earth as seen from Beacon data. The STEREO AHEAD HI2 image is showing CME is heading towards the earth and is likely to give a glancing blow on late period of Oct 29 2010 to 30th Oct 2010

I expect beautiful auroras also with some minor Geomagnetic storm in upcoming time.

Disturbance in Space weather possible on 29th Oct 2010 due to a CME

SEVERE SOLARWX

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

As seen from the Beacon data, a coronal mass ejection which had happened on Oct 26 2010 with a C class flare is heading towards the earth.

The Stereo behind HI 1 is indicating the CME heading towards the earth. Also indicated by the HI 2 image!.

As per NOAA, This CME will give a glancing blow to the earth on Oct 29 2010 i.e on Friday.

As per SEVERE SOLARWX, this CME will reach earth on Late period of Oct 29 2010 and will trigger Auroras

Active Geomagnetic Storm expected

SEVERE SOLARWX

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

Due to a recurrent geomagnetic hole high speed stream, Kp index had reached 5 on Saturday,23rd Oct 2010 and continued to be unsettled for most of the time. Situated now in a more geo-effective position, and the recent Coronal Mass ejection

Minor conditions of " Geomagnetic storm" possible around the polar regions with nice Auroras!

Stay tuned for alert

Classic M3 class flare from sunspot 1112 on 16th Oct 2010

Look at the giant filament

Courtesy- AstroEduca.com

SEVERE SOLARWX

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

(Post has been delayed since I had no time for writing this post on 17th Oct 2010)

Late night hours on 16th Oct 2010,sunspot 1112 hurled many solar flares including a Class M3 flare which was 400,000km long! which happened for the first time since SEVERE SOLARWX started forecastings in Aug 2010

The GOES X-ray flux indicated massive flare at about 1800hrs,GMT on 16th Oct which followed the C class flare emissions.Satellite environment plot started fluctuations after this the Kp index reached 4.

Space Weather Forecast-

The Geomagnetic activity is likely to start again as a Coronal Hole is rotating towards the earth and will become Geo-effective on 18th Oct 2010 late period

Low class flares possible from sunspot 1113,1115 as MDI magnetogram showing opposite charge fields (polarity) around the sunspot

A high speed stream flowing from this coronal hole and another which is near might reach the earth on Oct 19-20 and also some effects from past CME ejection on 14th Oct 2010

Varying Electric field intensity and electric field shape

THIS ARTICLE WILL BE MODIFIED ACCORDINGLY

AT PRESENT ITS INCORRECT

AKSHAY DEORAS

Glossary-

*1] Electric charged particle- A particle having an electric charge ( Can be Negative charge or a positive charge)

*2] Acceleration- Rate of change of velocity over a period of time. In one dimension it is rate of changes in speed of a body.

*3] Accelerating electric charged particle- A particle having an electric charge (greater than 0C) which is in acceleration due to action of a certain force

*4] Point charge- A point having a charge. For consideration, the point is taken as a sphere having a well defined diameter

* Point otherwise its a dimension less quantity

*5] Test charge- A ideal charge having magnitude,m (m~ 0)

*6] Electric field- A well defined area around a charge where there is influence of charge

or area around a point charge where force from point charge are active

In this case, area around an electric charge is called electric field

*7] Electric field shape- Shape of the electric field

(FOR THIS ARTICLE, THE SHAPE IS CONSIDERED ON A 2-DIMENSION)

*8] Electric Field Intensity (Electric intensity)-

Is the force experienced by a test charge having certain magnitude ( greater than 0) which is kept in electric field of a point charge

α- direct proportionality symbol

1] VARYING ELECTRIC FIELD INTENSITY FOR A POINT AND TEST CHARGE AT DIFFERENT STATES

Basic-

We consider a point charge P kept in vacuum at rest with a test charge Q at rest

Point charge having magnitude equal to 20C.(Coulomb). Electric field intensity = F/q

i.e

Vector E= Vector F/q

where E and F vector and vectors of electric field and force respectively and q is the charge of P

considering magnitudes-

E=F/q ....................... (1)

F= Ma .........................(2)

where M is mass and a is acceleration of point charge whose force will be experienced by test charge kept in electric field

Putting value of eq.(2) in (1)

E= Ma/q ......................(3)

So Electric field intensity of a test charge at rest in vacuum is given by eq.(3) where

E α Ma

Eα 1/q

Condition-

Now we accelerate the point charge P by providing a Force()

having magnitude equal to 10N and direction along unit vector

()

Let the mass of point charge be 1g and determined acceleration be 10m/s^

Putting values in .. eq(3) and considering vector

= 1*10/20 ()

= 1/2 N/C ()

= 0.5N/C ()..............(4)

IN FIRST CASE WHERE THE POINT CHARGE WAS IN REST we get following result from .... eq(3)

E= Ma/q ......................(3)

Where M=1g

a= 0m/s^

q=20C

= 1*0/20 ()

where () is unit vector along Force vector and accordingly for

=0 () ...................(5)

=0

On comparison of eq (4) and (5) we determine that there is a varying electric field intensity for a stationary point charge and test charge and a accelerating point charge and stationary test charge.

*When the point charge is in a state of motion(increasing magnitude) then electric field intensity on stationary test charge increases in other words as distance between them decreases.

* When point charge is stationary and test charge also then there is no net electric field intensity on a test charge

(II} VARYING ELECTRIC FIELD SHAPE.

TO BE COMPLETED!

Geomagnetic Storm G1 onset on earth!

IMAGE-

FIRST ONE IS THE SATELLITE ENVIRONMENT PLOT FROM NOAA . SEE THE KP OF 5!

SECOND IMAGE IS THE ARCHIVE 9TH OCT 2010 IMAGE FROM SUN. NOTICE THE TINY BLACK SPOTS OR CORONAL HOLES IN SUN'S NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. A HIGH SPEED STREAM FROM THERE HAS HIT THE EARTH TODAY

SEVERE SOLARWX

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

A coupled effect from a small coronal high speed stream and recent Interplanetary magnetic field trip on Oct 5 2010 has set a G1 Geomagnetic storm on the earth as per NOAA

NOAA forecasters were pretty confident since last few days regarding the Isolated active period on 11th Oct and some time on 12th Oct 2010

At present,

The Kp index is 5 at present with solar wind nearing to 370km/sec

There is a massive fluctuation in electron flux

HIGH LATITUDE OBSERVERS EVEN TO SOME MID LATITUDE OBSERVERS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR AURORAS ON 11TH AND 12TH OCT AT NIGHT PERIOD

THINGS ARE NOW CALMING DOWN WITH NOAA FORECAST SHOWING NO STORM ONSET IN RECENT.

The programming of the universe

Certain ideas require no explanation !

A computer works fully as per the programming done. Right from the basic calculations of additions and other algebraic calculations to the computer games. Algebraic additions,subtractions and multiplication with division is all done by using the Binary number system of (0,1) and the Boolean Algebra. The programming is done in such a way that its simple to the users and to the processing units. Thats more a Computer language

The theory of very small tells us that at every second or micro micro,nano seconds there is some activity going on in the dark regions of the universe. A pair of Particle-Antiparticle creates and destroys each other after an interval. We don't see it by our eyes or by means of Observational astronomy.

The formation,evolution,death of Universe and multiple cycles of formation-destruction are very mysterious things.

Has there been "Programming of The Universe"

The answer possibly is - Yes

We all have a defined Genetic code which we get from our parents. This Genetic code is transferred to us during our (Birth in the womb,evolution in the womb). For all our lives we carry the same Genetic code which also describes many properties that can be identical to either or both of our parents.

Considering the Big Bang theory which is considered to be the very correct theory,

The universe started in a tiny point where there was no light,energy at the earlier stage

At the later stage as this tiny point expanded the explosion happened and Time was created matter was released. Over the time as the matter cooled down, force of Gravity became dominant and began the process of compression of a matter and over the period this created the stars.

The basic concept right from the Singularity to Big Bang lies similar to a evolution of a baby in the womb. During both this events, certain developments happen which initiate due to the programming

If Universe began from a Big Bang, then we must admit that there has been certain programming during the Singularity-Inflation stage

What type of Programming-

From Singularity where everything was concentrated in zero volumed region to the inflation stage of newly born universe there exist few common features.

The prominent among it is the creation-

My argument is that Why the Big bang happened?

If Singularity was the initial stage of the universe then why did an explosion(cosmic inflation) happened which released all the matter. Why Singularity was not the permanent stage.?

If Singularity would have been the permanent stage of the Universe then there would not had been any evolutions or series of evolutions which led to the formation of everything

This means the nature of the matter in the singularity and expansion stage was well defined and can be called as Programming.

On Earth, similar chronology is observed... Anything emerges out from a point, grows and then becomes vast. Nothing starts from vast or continue to remain a point.

2] The separation of four fundamental forces.

At the early stage all these fundamental forces were united by they got separated all of sudden.

Similar to this, there are many other events which can be put in terms of a chronology and all the events have a well defined inreversible order

This is the programming of universe which created everything.

Possible Kp of 4 expected!

Sunspot 1109 at left,1108 at center and 1106 at right

SEVERE SOLARWX

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster-

A gigantic coronal hole at the northern hemisphere of the earth facing side of the sun is very likely sending High speed Coronal stream towards the earth. The coronal hole high speed stream emitted towards the earth causes disturbances in the magnetic field of the earth and onsetting a Geomagnetic storm

This time, chances are good for a Kp index of 4 which will trigger beautiful auroras in the high latitude regions. People must keep checking NOAA forecasts which are in a favor of 35% ACTIVE conditions in both high and mid latitude regions till next 48hrs. Associated with this is the fluctuating Electron flux

Sunspots-

Currently three sunspots are nearly active!

The giant sunspot 1108 is at the southern side of the Sun and quite away from earth direction

1108 also has been emitting many solar flares with some CME recently

The big show can be of the rotating sunspot 1109 which already triggered some CME on 22nd Sept 2010 as seen from Coronagraphs. 1109 can trigger some more C class flares in coming 24hrs . NOAA forecasters call for 10% chance of M class flares

Jupiter to appear Bright as earth passes between sun and Jupiter

(Jupiter as on 20th Sept 2010 midnight)

All sky gazers and amateur astronomers must turn their attention towards Jupiter on 20th Sept 2010 as Jupiter will be 591 495 532 kilometers or 368 million miles from the earth after 1963!

Astronomical phenomena known as opposition when any planet passe

s in between the observer and the sun will take place on 21st Sept 2010 when earth will pass between Jupiter and the sun

Since Jupiter's orbit is not as perfectly symmetrical than earth, during opposition it will near towards the earth due to its orbit

Jupiter is currently rising just few minutes after the sunset since we are approaching the Opposition phase.

So Jupiter is easily spotted as an object having magnitude of -2.9 in Eastern Sky

On 20th Sept 2010 i.e Sunday, Jupiter will rise just near South Easter

n side of East side in the sky after sunset

towards late night it will be towards SE and near to the moon so it will

be easy to spot

Earth passes in between Jupiter and sun every 13 months as Earth completes a rotation in 12 months and Jupiter in 12 years

Jupiter will be seen good by Telescope and ordinary binoculars

Opposition will be on 21st,tuesday so Jupiter will be very bright and clear these days

Right- (Jupiter and moon on 20th Sept 2010 midnight)

DONT MISS IT

Geomagnetic index of 4 reached

SEVERE SOLARWX

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

Geomagnetic index of 4 has been reached late night Wednesday.

Some Auroras were triggered in high latitude areas.

NOAA forecasters are expecting Isolated active period (geomagnetic disturbance) tomorrow i.e 16th Sept 2010... I definitely don't understand the reason they are giving i.e CME of 11th Sept 2010..

According to me, the CME already impacted earth with Kp of 4.. However some late coming CME on the same day can influence the earth's magnetic field tomorrow.

I am not in a favour of Active period on 16th Sept 2010

A Big Coronal Hole is rotating towards the earth. A recent coronal high speed might reach earth in next 3-4 days. So that time I can expect a proton flux happening

Sunspot 1106 hurls another solar flare and some CME

RIGHT-

THE DARK BLACK PATCH ON THE SUN WILL BE ROTATING TOWARDS EARTH IN COMING TIME. A CORONAL HIGH SPEED STREAM MIGHT BE HITING THE EARTH FROM IT

BELOW IT I.E FILAMENTS AROUND SUNSPOT 1106

Akshay's Gyaan sets up "SEVERE SOLARWX" section on the blog

Finally, an official confirmation of establishing a well defined Space Weather Forecasting agency.

I already had made more than a dozen of Space Weather Forecasts since August 2010.

But there was no specific name given to the organization as we have the Global Earth Weather forecasting agency-METD WEATHER.

METD WEATHER was established on June 1,2009. Its parent blog is Akshay's Gyaan

On the same basis, we have setup a section on blog (though not a different blog as managing 3 blogs will become difficult). The name of the Akshay's Gyaan Space Weather Forecasting agency is -

"SEVERE SOLARWX" WX means weather in meteorological aspects. Severe Solar WX means Severe Solar Weather.

All the posts relating to space weather will be done on Akshay's Gyaan blog

The Severe Solar forecaster will be Akshay Deoras

Electron Flux from GOES show upcoming CME!

The 5 min data from GOES Electron flux unit is indicating a fluctuation in the graph and it means that the geomagnetic field of the earth is slowly becoming unstable. The Kp index from GOES also has surged to 3 from 1 mark on 14th Sept 2010 early hours (GMT).

A Coronal Mass Ejection had happened on Sun on Sept 10 2010 which was not directly aimed towards the earth but the outer expanding clouds had a possibility of generating a Kp index of 4 .

The datas from STEREO spacecraft aren't showing any approaching CME in significant level towards earth and no cloud expanding on Stereo Ahead HI 2 plot

It looks like some charged particles associated with that CME are now striking the earth. I don't expect a Geomagnetic storm generation. But High altitude observers much watch for Auroras during late night hours of 14th and 15th Sept 2010

Active 1106!

The sunspot 1106 which previously was named as 1100 which is now rotating towards the earth is already active and

again has erupted a Class B1 flare and seen from Coronagraphs, CME.

Since the sunspot is away from the ea

rth, that Coronal Mass ejection is not expected to hit the earth but if another eruptions happen when 1106 faces the earth, then it can trigger a direct hit of CME towards the earth and causing a geomagnetic storm in coming days

RIGHT- GIANT CME ON THE LOWER LEFT SIDE OF THE SUN FROM SUNSPOT 1106

Sunspot 1105 emits a C3 class flare and CME!

Magnetic reconnection happened again at sunspot no. 1105 as a result of which that sunspot hurled a Massive C3 class solar flare on 2330UT,Sept.8. Captured images from SDO and SOHO clearly show Coronal Mass Ejection had happened on the sun but the CME currently is heading towards a direction where no planets are situated currently so It w'd miss everything.

Currently the solar activity will go down since no new sunspot has developed on the SDO facing side of the sun. 

Also the geomagnetic activity is expected to remain down after early unsettled levels of Electron Flux

Attachments-

1] Solar Flare strip as captured by Solar Dynamics Observatory aka SDO

2] Latest Coronagraph from the sun showing massive CME on the upper right part of the image

3] X ray flux showing a C3 flare emission

Magnitude 7.0 Earthquake of Christchurch, New Zealand

Location	43.530°S, 172.120°E
Depth	5 km (3.1 miles) set by location program
Region	SOUTH ISLAND OF NEW ZEALAND
Distances	45 km (30 miles) W of Christchurch, New Zealand 200 km (125 miles) SSE of Westport, New Zealand 290 km (180 miles) NNE of Dunedin, New Zealand 330 km (205 miles) SW of WELLINGTON, New Zealand
Time	Saturday, Sep 04, 2010, 04.36.46 AM Local time (UTC+12)
Parameters	NST (Number of station reporting Primary and Secondary wave for this earthquake) 374 Nph (Number of Primary and Secondary wave observation used to compute hypocenter location) 374 Dmin (Horizontal distance from from the epicenter to the nearest station) 88.7 km Rmss (the difference between predicted arrival time and observed arrival time of the earthquake) 0 sec Gp (The largest azimuthal gap between azimuthally adjacent stations) 18° M-type=centroid moment magnitude (Mw), Version=9
Source	Institute of Geological and Nuclear Sciences, Lower Hutt, New Zealand

Christchurch lies on the layer of Quarternary age fan of gravel deposit. This layer is created when ice age glaciers carving their path along South Island folded mountain and laid their stone loadings onshore. Gravel is considered loose enough so it is not decelerate the seismic wave much. According to USGS' shakeMap, acceleration of seismic wave in Christchurch is 40 % of gravitational acceleration in 0.3 s period wave map. If the acceleration of seismic wave is juxtaposed with Mercalli Modified Intensity scale, the city of Christchurch would have experiencing a horrifying VIII MMI doomsday shake.

SEISMOGRAM DISPLAY OF MC QUEEN VALLEY STATION
note a streak near 12.00 point





Nah, 16 minutes after the primary earthquake, a weaker 5.1 M quake shook Christchurch. Another weaker earthquakes could be seen on seismogram notes before.

Magnitude 7.0 Earthquake strikes South Island of New Zealand !

ABOVE- AN EXTENSIVE DAMAGE REPORTED IN CHRISTCHURCH DUE TO THAT EARTHQUAKE MEASURED 7.0 BY USGC

TOP IMAGE- THE USGC SHAKEMAP FOR CHRISTCHURCH AREA,NEW ZEALAND

Its almost a fresh update and a breaking news that I am bringing in less than 1.30hrs from the actual happening

A strong Earthquake measuring 7.0 and at a depth of 12km struck 55Km WNW of Christchurch city in New Zealand! This happened at 16:35:46UT(3rd Sept 2010) or 04:35:46LT(4th Sept 2010) in New Zealand . Aftershocks followed this earthquake. No local Tsunami has been generated since the depth of earthquake is not strong and is more towards the upper part.

Its feared that a lot of damage has been caused in Christchurch area and we hope that no lives are lost in this incident!

Since I am not very versed in seismology, my colleague Aluth Fian who is better known for his volcano writeups will make an update on technical aspects of this earthquake on Saturday with the related photos and details

Sinabung Volcano First Historical Eruption

Alutsyah Luthfian Create your badge


Mount Sinabung is a 2 460 meters high Pleistocene-to-Holocene stratovolcano located in Tanah Karo Regency, North Sumatra Province of Indonesia. The migration of summit vents along N-S trending line has given an elongated form of its summit. The youngest crater of this conical andecitic to dacitic stratovolcano is at southern end of four overlapping craters. Solfataric activity WAS seen on its summit and upper flanks of Sinabung in 1912. there is no historical record of Sinabung eruption before today, as volcanological data from Indonesian Volcanism Bureau had been classified this volcano in Type B volcano, meaning that this volcano is never erupted before 1600 AD and features volcanic activity. Because it was included as a Type B volcano, (until today) there is no volcanism observatory at this mountain. All volcanic activity is observed from Medan. Now this volcano is classified into Type A, meaning that there is a known historical eruption of the volcano after 1600 AD.

Surono, the chairman of Geologic Hazard Mitigation and Volcanism Center was swear, "if Sinabung Volcano is gonna erupt, i have to put my position as a chairman". Now, the Sinabung volcano is erupt and i beg your swear! :-)

Aids has came to the disaster-affected region. The aids are mostly came in form of maskings, 75 government officers, foods, and other kind of logistics. I predicted that the ash from Sinabung will interfere some flight schedules from International Airport of Polonia 3 days from now, the cause is the ash will be directed North East. (based on GFS model).

SATURDAY, AUGUST 28, 2010
05.04 AM GMT (12.04 PM local time)
Sinabung volcano's activity is increasing, signed by the release of hot gases and water vapor. Lahars and ash rain is also reported by people living on Sinabung's flank. Villagers also heared thundering sound from the volcano. Some 26 000 villagers has fled to nearby city centers: Kabanjahe and Brastagi, also Medan and Pematang Siantar. They are evacuated to church and mosques and other social facilities. They don't want to go home before the official stated that the condition is secure.

5 years ago the Sinabung volcano was rumbling and roaring then followed with avalanche. However, it was not categorized as volcanic eruption.

05.15 PM GMT (Sunday, August 29, 2010--00.15 AM local time)

2 460 m Sinabung volcano started releasing molten lava. the lava fountain is visible from afar, spewing lava into the night sky and flow some into the flank. Hot ash with white to yellow color is spread into areas located tens kilometers. But in the morning, the lava fountain is not visible due to foggy weather.

03.00 AM GMT, Sunday, August 29, 2010

Refugees do riot at Regent's house asking for foods. They had been waiting for 8 hours in refuge camp. After the riot finished, the foods then came.

07.36 AM GMT, Sunday, August 29, 2010

One dies due to respiratory problem caused by Sinabung's ash.

10.37 AM GMT, Sunday, August 29, 2010

Geologists has sent to eruption site for determining whether the erupted material is containing Silicon. if the erupted material is containing silicon then the eruption is explosive and will last for months. That kind of long eruption was happened to Galungggung Volcano in West Java Province of Indonesia. The Galunggung volcano was slept since before 1600, then it awakes at 1983, caused 10 moths long explosive eruption.

10.00 PM GMT, Sunday, August 29, 2010

A 5-minute quake rattled villages near Mount Sinabung.

Early Morning of Friday, Sep 3, 2010 Local Time: Sinabung erupted for the second time.

COMPILED VIDEO OF SINABUNG ERUPTION

From August 29 - 30, 2010

I take attention of this volcano due to its reactivation after a very long quiescense

Sources:

thejakartapost.com (English)

ANTARA (English)

metrotvnews.com (Indonesian Language)

kompas.com (Indonesian Language)

volcano.si.edu (Smithsonian Volcanism Site)