SCIENCE OF ECLIPSE ( LUNAR) AND THE JUNE 15 2011 TOTAL LUNAR ECLIPSE

ABOVE-

THE SIMULATION SHOWING HOW THE TOTAL LUNAR ECLIPSE WILL APPEAR OVER NAGPUR,INDIA

TIMES DISPLAYED ARE LOCAL = GMT + 5.30HRS

ABOVE- PHASES OF MOON

ONLINE LIVE ECLIPSE ( DURING THE EVENT)

The Central Lunar Eclipse will be shown live through WEBCAST -
By Sky Watchers Association of North Bengal(SWAN) Siliguri, West Bengal
http://www.skywatchersindia.com/
or
http://www.livestream.com/swansiliguri
By Eclipse Chaser Athaenium New Delhi
http://www.ustream.tv/user/eclipsechasers
By Astronation.net at http://www.astronation.net/webcam/10022/342/mondfinsternis-juni-2011.html

The decade's first lunar eclipse as well as the first total lunar eclipse of this year & decade shall take place on Wed 15th June 2011

The Moon shall turn Coppery Red as the scattered light due to Rayleigh's effect strikes the moon and gives the glow!

Science of Eclipse-

Like known by all an Eclipse is an obscuring of light from any celestial object as another cellestial object passes in between the source and observer or the light from the source is blocked by an object leading to visible shadow of that object on another.

Lunar Eclipse is annually occurring phenomena.

Orbital Configuration of the Moon

Since Earth-Moon form a Planet-Moon system, both of them rotate about their centre of mass referred as Barycenter. This barycentre is about 4700km from Earth's centre which

is about 3/4th of Earth's Orbit ( Apx 6400km)

( Right- The Earth as centre and the moon revolving about centre of mass shown as PLUS sign)

The orbit of the moon around the Earth is elliptic. Moon's orbit around the earth makes an angle of 5 Degree 14 mins with earth's celestial equator as well as the ecliptic ( App

arent path of Sun in Earth's sky as viewed from earth or the path traced by earth as seen from the sun)

Its like when you consider a clock let the minute hand pointing from 9 to 3 be the so another minute hand pointing from 2-7 is the moon's orbit around the earth but in the real three dimension of space

Thus moon's orbit crosses the ecliptic two times during one orbit referred as nodes( Explained below)

Moon completes a revolution around the Earth in 27.231 days

( IMG COURTESY- ARVIND PARANJPYE)

Nodes of moon's orbit around the Earth-

Nodes are the two positions in the orbit of moon around the earth where the moon's

orbit intersects the ecliptic. Thus for earth's shadow to be casted on moon or moon blocking the solar disc, the moon must be at a common plane or have co-planar orbits.

But it is not necessary that every approximate 15 days when the moon reaches the node ( Descending Node- When the moon is declining from the ecliptic axis MOVING NORTH TO

SOUTH and

Ascending node- When the moon is inclining the ecliptic axis MOVING SOUTH TO NORTH) eclipse will take place as its not necessary that the relative angular separation of sun and moon is 180 Deg ( Case of Lunar Eclipse) when the moon passes from non sun facing side of the earth or 0 Degree ( Case of Solar Eclipse) when moon is in between earth and sun

For any eclipse, Solar or Lunar- New Moon or Full Moon is required respectively. ( Node and Ecliptic)

Why is this??

When there is New Moon, the moon is in between earth and sun ( Not necessary that its always in a liner path) but remains in inclined or declined position depending on its motion.

During full moon, the moon is in opposite direction that is at the non sun facing side of the earth.

Thus as per definitions of solar and lunar eclipse relating to position of Moon with respect to earth the above condition is satisfied.

During every orbit, moon has the same cellestial longitude required for eclipse ( In 29.53 days) but the celestial latitude is not proper and the concept of Ecliptic limit is introduced

Ecliptic Limit-

It is that minimum angle between the position of moon and the node of the moon's orbit required for an eclipse to occur

Its of two type-

Major Ecliptic Limit

A Lunar Eclipse MAY occur when the moon is at

11° 38' ( Celestial Latitude) of a Node, and a Solar Eclipse MAY occur if there is a New Moon within 17° 25' of a Node.

For a Solar Eclipse to occur, the Moon's Celestial Latitude cannot exceed 1° 27', and must be less than 58' for the Solar Eclipse to be Total or Annular.

• Major Ecliptic Orbit A Lunar Eclipse MUST occur if there is a Full Moon within 9° 39' (Celestial Longitude), of a Node, and a Solar Eclipse MUST occur if there is a New Moon within 15° 23' of a Node.

• If a New or Full Moon occurs within 5° of a Node, the Eclipse will be Total or Annular.

Additionally:

• For a Lunar Eclipse to occur, the Moon's Celestial Latitude at Full Moon cannot exceed about 55', and for that Lunar Eclipse to be Total, Celestial Latitude cannot exceed 26'

*** Also

THE MOST IMPORTANT OF ALL - FOR ECLIPSE A PERFECT LINEAR ALIGNMENT,THE SUN-MOON-EARTH NEEDS TO BE PERFECTLY ALIGNED AND THIS CAN HAPPEN ONLY WHEN THE MOON IS AT ONE OF THE NODES AND THE SUN ALSO AT ONE OF THE NODES OR WITHIN THE ECLIPTIC LIMIT

***

An Interesting animation here

Thus for any eclipse to happen,above condition mentioned be satisfied.

June 15 2011 Total Lunar Eclipse-

The June 15 2011 Lunar Eclipse shall be the first lunar eclipse of the year and THE FIRST ECLIPSE SINCE 2000 WHERE THE MOON WILL PASS THROUGH THE CENTRAL PORTION OF EARTH'S SHADOW ( UMBRA)

THE PREVIOUS LUNAR ECLIPSES ( NOT OF THE 2000 LUNAR ECLIPSE),MOON PASSED NOT THROUGH EXACT CENTRAL UMBRA BUT SLIGHTLY ABOVE CENTRAL UMBRAL REGION.

THE ECLIPSE BEGINS WITH THE FIRST CONTACT ( P1)

AT 17:23:05 UT ON WED,15TH JUNE 2011

Visibility-

Europe, Africa, Asia, Australia, New Zealand, southern South America and eastern South America. Places that won’t see the eclipse at all include Hawaii, North America, northwestern South America, Greenland, Iceland and the Arctic.

WITH THE SUN SETTING OVER EUROPE, THE CONTINENT SHALL WITNESS THE ECLIPSE AFTER SUN SETS TILL AROUND MID NIGHT.

EUROPE SHALL SEE A UMBRAL ECLIPSE MISSING THE INITIAL STAGES OF ECLIPSE AS THE MOON WILL BE BELOW THE HORIZON. THUS THE MOON WILL RISE IN ECLIPSE ONLY IN EUROPE

*** TOTALITY SHALL NOT BE SEEN BY NORTHERN SCOTLAND,SCANDINAVIA***

EAST ASIA,EAST AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND WILL MISS LAST PHASES OF ECLIPSE AS THE MOON SETS IN ECLIPSE ONLY

TIMINGS- ( UTC)

P1 - 17:23:05

U1- 18:22:37

U2- 19:22:11

GREATEST- 20:12:37

U3 - 21:03:22

U4 - 22:02:35

P4 - 23:02:15

TIMING IN INDIAN STANDARD TIME ( IST= GMT+5.30HRS)

2011	stage	Phase	time (IST)
Jun 15	1	Moon enters penumbra	22:52:52
Jun 15	2	Moon enters umbra	23:52:24
Jun 16	3	Start of totality	00:51:57
Jun 16	4	Maximum eclipse	01:42:24
Jun 16	5	End of totality	02:32:50
Jun 16	6	Moon leaves umbra	03:32:22
Jun 16	7	Moon leaves penumbra	04:32:02

CHARACTERISTICS-

*** DARKEST ECLIPSE SINCE JULY 16 2000 LUNAR ECLIPSE AS THIS TIME MOON'S CENTRE PASSES THROUGH 5.3 ARCMINUTES OF SHADOW AXIS***

*** NEXT DARKER ECLIPSE ON JULY 27 2018***

*** EARTH'S SHADOW FALLS IN CONSTELLATION OPHIUCHUS NORTH OF SCORPIUS***

B9.5Ve spectral class star BSC 51 OPH TO LIE IN THE UMBRA OF THE EARTH'S SHADOW

RIGHT-

THE MOON AS THE CENTRAL COPPERY RED OBJECT SURROUNDED BY EARTH'S SHADOW AND BSC 51 OPH TO ITS LOWER RIGHT AS TO BE SEEN FROM NAGPUR,INDIA DURING PEAK ECLIPSE

SAROS- 130

GAMMA- 0.090

PENUMBRA ( MAGNITUDE) - 2.712

UMBRA ( MAGNITUDE) 1.705

TOTALITY- 100 MINS AND 52 SECONDS

FOR INDIA-

ECLIPSE DURATION - 22:52 ( 15TH JUNE) TO 0432 ( 16TH JUNE) IST

MAXIMUM ECLIPSE AT 0142( 16TH JUNE) IST

REFERENCES AND COURTESY-

1] ARVIND PARANJPYE FOR TABULAR FORM AND IMAGE

http://www.iucaa.ernet.in/~scipop/Eclipses/Luna15jun11/lunar_eclipse_1106.htm

2] WIKIPEDIA

3] ECLIPSE @ NASA

4] CARTES DU CIEL SOFTWARE

Sunspot region 1126-1127 produces a M2 class Solar Flare

SEVERE SOLARWX

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

The anticipated sunspot region 1126-1127 which had produced a borderline M class Solar Flare few days ago has now produced a M2 class flare. On June 7th at 0641UT this solar flare was released with lots of Coronal Mass Ejection happened at the time of erruption,most of the CME fell back on the Surface of the Sun due to Sun's gravity where the Escape Velocity 617.5km/sec is there.

The Coronal Mass Ejection cloud has velocity of more than 1100km/sec but some cloud had velocity less than Sun's Escape Velocity so it was attracted back!

This eruption also sent a stream of charged particles ( Protons mostly) towards the Earth which led to a S1 Solar Radiation Storm.

Forecast-

The Coronal Mass Ejection is heading towards the Earth as depicted by the STEREO BEACON DATA. The CME shall give a Glancing Blow and expected to reach by tomorrow ( June 9)

High Latitude observers are going to get an opportunity to witness Active Geomagnetic Storming conditions with Auroras likely during the period

Check the video here

Space Shuttle Endeavour returns back home!

STS 134 MISSION HAS BEEN COMPLETED WITH THE SPACE SHUTTLE ENDEAVOUR LANDING BACK HOME AT 0235AM EDT
SPACE SHUTTLE ENDEAVOUR HAS COMPLETED 25 MISSIONS,299 DAYS IN SPACE AND OVER 122 MILLION MILES COVERED

ABOVE IMAGES-
COURTESY NASA TV HD

Partial Solar Eclipse on June 1-2 2011 in Higher Northern Latitudes

The Annually occurring phenomena of the Eclipses shall happen in the month of June 2011 when a Partial Solar Eclipse and a Total Lunar Eclipse shall be taking place.

The Second Solar Eclipse of the four eclipses for the year shall be taking place on 1-2nd June 2011 when the Moon shall pass infront of Sun and Earth linear path with the Higher Northern Latitudes.

The Eclipse will begin from Asia as the sunrises in Siberia,Northern China by 19:25:18UT.

Northern China when the Penumbral-1 stage sets in

Areas in North Eastern China shall see the Eclipse during the Sunrise of 2nd June 2011 as the Sun rises in Eclipse phase only. The approximate sunrise for the location ChangChun is around 0400hrs Local Time,Harbin (0327am) LT ON 2ND JUNE 2011

Areas in North Korea- Around 0430AM LT on

2nd June 2011

THE MAXIMUM ECLIPSE SHALL BE DURING 21:17:18 UT,1ST JUNE 2011 OF MAGNITUDE 0.6 AND SHALL BE APPEARING MAXIMUM CLOSE TO THE NORTH POLE

THAT IS THE ARCTIC COAST AROUND 64.7N, 46.8E SAROS 118,GAMMA- 1.213.

Thus the Shadow will be crossing the International Date Line and so regions in North America will witness the eclipse on previous day i.e 1st June 2011

The Eclipse shall end in New Foundland

region by 23:06 UT ( 1st June 2011)

LOCAL TIMINGS CAN BE FOUND

HERE

Its a Midnight Solar Eclipse. During Spring, due to the apparent migration of Sun in Northern Hemisphere, areas in the Arctic Circle has 24hrs of Sunshine i.e Sun doesn't set for apx 6 months in the region.

** CHECK Local Weather in advance to plan Eclipse Viewing Prog***

7.1 Magnitude earthquake offcoast of Honshu,Japan. TSUNAMI WARNING LIFTED

TSUNAMI WARNING FOR NE COAST OF JAPAN HAS BEEN LIFTED!

Tsunami Warning lifted off for Miyagi Pref and for
IWATE PREF.
FUKUSHIMA PREF. PACIFIC COAST OF AOMORI PREF.
IBARAKI PREF.
The above-mentioned Tsunami Warnings/Advisories have been cancelled.

- 0058 JST,8TH APRIL 2011

No one has forgotten the 11th March 2011 - 8.9M earthquake off coast of Honshu,Japan which triggered a massive Tsunami

No more comments on that event.

An earthquake 7.1M as per USGC has struck Japan again at 14:32:41UTC,7th April 2011 with the epicenter at 38.253°N, 141.640°E

The epicenter was located 49 km below the surface

It was 66km East of Sendai

330km NNE of Tokyo

In Tokyo, tremor were experienced for 1minute with shaking of buildings.

However in Ichinoseki, tremendous movements were felt which is at East coast of Japan

TSUNAMI WARNING FOR NE COAST OF JAPAN HAS BEEN LIFTED!

Tsunami Warning lifted off for Miyagi Pref and for
IWATE PREF.
FUKUSHIMA PREF. PACIFIC COAST OF AOMORI PREF.
IBARAKI PREF.
The above-mentioned Tsunami Warnings/Advisories have been cancelled.

- 0058 JST,8TH APRIL 2011

http://www.jma.go.jp/en/tsunami/floodtide_2.html FOR TSUNAMI TIMINGS

**

FUKUSHIMA DA-ICHI PLANT IS FUNCTIONING NORMALLY RIGHT NOW. NO NUCLEAR THREAT

PACIFIC TSUNAMI CENTER HAS NOT ISSUED ANY TSUNAMI WARNING AS THE DEPTH OF EARTHQUAKE IS LARGE.

** HOWEVER COASTAL TSUNAMI WAVES ARE LIKELY TO AFFECT EASTERN COAST OF JAPAN

** JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY HAS ISSUED A LOCAL TSUNAMI WARNING

Statement by Japan Meteorological Agency-

sunami Warning/Advisory Issued at 23:34 JST 07 Apr 2011 ******************Headline****************** Tsunami Warnings (Tsunami) have been issued for the following coastal regions of Japan: MIYAGI PREF. Evacuate immediately to safe place away from the shore in the above coastal regions. Tsunami advisories are currently in effect in other coastal regions of Japan. *******************Text******************** Tsunami Warnings have been issued for the following coastal regions of Japan: *MIYAGI PREF. Evacuate immediately to safe place away from the shore in the above coastal regions. Tsunami Advisories have been issued for the following coastal regions of Japan: PACIFIC COAST OF AOMORI PREF. *IWATE PREF. FUKUSHIMA PREF. IBARAKI PREF. Tsunamis are expected to arrive imminently in the following coastal regions of Japan (coastal regions shown above with * marks): MIYAGI PREF. IWATE PREF. ***********About Tsunami Forecast************ Tsunami height is expected to be up to 2 meters. Caution advised. Tsunami height is expected to be about 0.5 meters. Attention advised. ******* Earthquake Information ******** Occurred at 23:32 JST 07 Apr 2011 Region name MIYAGI-KEN OKI Latitude 38.2N Longitude 142.0E Depth about 40 km Magnitude 7.4 RELATED USEFUL LINKS http://www.jma.go.jp/en/tsunami/

Massive Solar Filament at Sun's South Eastern Limb!

SEVERE SOLARWX

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

A Massive Solar Prominence at the South Eastern limb of the sun measuring OVER 200,000KM!

The sun has no active sunspots right now on the earth side however a coronal hole has appeared at the SE limb of the sun.

Since the filament is not directed towards the earth ( Squarely directed) and ejection from it shall not reach so quickly on the earth,

THE ACE SPACECRAFT DATA SHOWS SOME SUDDEN GEOMAGNETIC IMPULSE LATE NIGHT HOURS ON 5TH APR 2011 AND ANOTHER SUDDEN IMPULSE TODAY 9-12UTC.

GEOMAGNETIC IMPULSE HAPPENS WHEN A SHOCK WAVE OFTEN GENERATED BY ARRIVING CHARGED PARTICLES,SOLAR WINDS FROM GEOMAGNETIC IMPULSE OR FROM THE CORONAL HOLES PASS THROUGH THE ACE SPACECRAFT.

AS A RESULT, A GEOMAGNETIC STORM G1 HAS ONSET WITH KP=6 ( STORM)

It seems that the G1 storm is caused by the Coronal Hole High speed stream and not the filament. Its a matter of debate right now!

WITH A SOUTHWARD

BZ ( INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD TRIPPED SOUTH RIGHT NOW, ) THIS GIVES A POSITION FOR THE SOLAR WIND TO POUR IN AS THE EARTH AND SUN'S MAGNETIC FIELDS CANCEL EACH OTHER AT A POINT WHERE THE WIND BUFFERS IN

HIGH LATITUDE OBSERVERS MUST REMAIN ALERT FOR AURORAS IN THE

COMING PERIOD.

About Solar Filaments-

Solar Filament also known as Solar Prominence or Giant Coronal loops are some brilliant features where a magnetic flux loop is anchored from the Photosphere of the Sun and extending it till the corona which is the sun's atmosphere.

As seen by the Solar Dynamic Observatory, the solar prominence is a flux tube ( loop) in which cool plasma is flowing from and to the Solar Photosphere to the photosphere.

A coronal loop is much smaller feature than the Solar prominence.

The corona is a region where much of the Coronal mass ejections and solar flare erruptions take place. The coronal mass ejections like we always have forecasted happen when the cold plasma flowing through this flux tube is released. The reasons are still unknown but has to be related with the Twisting and Untwisting of Magnetic flux tube as we mentioned in our paper.

Right-

The relative comparison of 2010 Solar Filament with Jupiter and Earth. Earth is a tiny dot south of Jupiter in this image

Space Weather Forecast-

Special attention shall now be given to this filament. This is rotating towards the geo-effective side of the sun. If the filament untwists during that period, it shall send tons of charged particles towards the earth and likely cause Geomagnetic Storming

STAY TUNED FOR ACTION

Sunspot 1176 is a dud! Focus now shifts to sunspot 1183

SEVERE SOLARWX

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

The Anticipated Sunspot 1176 which made a dashing entry on the earth side of the sun with a symmetric magnetic field has now turned off!

The magnetic field lines are no longer symmetrical as what we proposed in our paper of Analogy of Sunspots.

The sunspot 1176 didn't modify into a more magnetic complex region and continues to have a little complex bipolar classification

Its a Beta Gamma sunspot but I DON'T EXPECT IT TO PRODUCE ANY BIG FLARE

Sunspot 1183

Appearing on the NE limb of the sun,

Sunspot 1183 has a beta-gamma magnetic field but is quite magnetic simplicity.

It has some symmetric magnetic fields but they don't appear to be that strong what is required for high class flares

SEVERE SOLARWX Forecast

* C class flares,B class flares to continue from sunspot 1176.

* C class flare to continue from 1183

* Slight Chance of M class flare in the upcoming period

Overall, quiet spaceweather expected

Time for X ray flares from 1176 sunspot

SEVERE SOLARWX

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

The growing Sunspot 1176 is a wide region on the sun having a Beta Gamma Magnetic Classification.

As seen from the datas from Solar Dynamic Observatory, AR 1176 is a Bipolar region but is complex disabling the simple division of their magnetic poles.

The Magnetic Field lines around the sunspot region are already symmetrical as per what was proposed in the paper "Analogy of Sunspot 1158,1164,1166" which can be seen here

However, we can't expect High end flares right now as the sunspot is not that complex when magnetic polarity is considered.

The Region shall gain some complexity and be favorable for High end M class flares to X class flares around 1st April or so.

C class flares to low M class flares shall be coming out from region 1176 by the time.

Space Weather Forecast as per NOAA

NOAA is forecasting a 50% and above chance of M class flares in next 48hr period and 10% for an X class flare

SEVERE SOLARWX Forecast-

There is a chance of M class flare ( Low class upto M5) from sunspot region 1176

(28th Mar-1st April 2011)

As Sunspot becomes Magnetic Complex,

High end M class to X class flares from 1176.

(1st April ONWARDS)

Sunspot 1176 Arrives!

SEVERE SOLARWX

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

After a week of nearly calm space weather,

Big sunspot 1176 is rotating towards the earth side of the sun from the South-Eastern limb of the sun. The sunspot 1176 already has open magnetic fields and harbors energy for producing M class flares RIGHT NOW and possible X class flares in the upcoming period.

This sunspot is the formed sunspot 1165 which was there during Feb end and didn't produce a big flare.

With no data from Solar Dynamic Observatory especially of magnetic field arrangements and proposed symmetrical magnetic fields as per our paper see here ,it shall be little difficult to tell about the magnetic field.

Sunspot 1176 produced an M1 class flare during the early morning hours and sent a wave of ionization causing a R1 Radio Blackout.

Earth is also entering a High speed stream from a coronal hole so HIGH LATITUDE OBSERVERS MUST WATCHOUT FOR AURORAS

SUNSPOT 1176 IS GOING TO BE A HIT~

EARTHQUAKE IN JAPAN

By Alutsyah Luthfian, senior high school student of Indonesia

To the point: Earthquake has occurred in Japan at Magnitude 8.9.

This earthquake is sourced from collision of Pacific plate with Eurasian plate (colliding region is shown by a tetragon). The shallow depth of this earthquake trigger tsunami across Japan and Pacific Ocean including Hawaii, Guam, and Eastern Indonesia. With absolute magnitude of 9.0, This earthquake has emitted 3,9 x 10E22 J of energy which equivalent to 2 x 10E9 Mt of TNT (30 million times of the Tsar Bomba fusion-fission nuclear explosion at Russia in the year of 1961-it was the most devastating nuclear device ever made by human). I have corrected the calculation, that's final result. By using the energy reservation principle, we can also perceive how big the tsunami is in the beaches near the epicentrum of earthquake: 10 meters. from the map, beaches experienced more acceleration than the mountainous region of central Japan. Not only caused by distance, this deceleration caused by loose sandy beach of Japan. Also, mountainous region tends to have greater gravitation caused by mass bulging, so it decelerates seismic wave.

The seismograph note of the earthquake shows P-wave take longer time to felt by the tool along with its distance from epicentrum, because of deceleration caused by the inner filling of earth. Please note the far left seismograph; That's note made by seismograph in Asahi, just 623 km to the center of earthquake.

Based on wave formula, it is broadly obtained that the energy of 2011 Japan Tsunami is 6.125 x 10E4 Joule per meter squared. The other part of earthquake energy is used to move the plates, to generate heat etc. To gain perception of Japan tsunami Energy, I use this equation:

assume that the specific mass of water is 1000 kg per cubic meter, gravitation acceleration is 9,8 m per second squared, and H, the height of tsunami near the beach is 10 meters. If we want to know how is the power of the tsunami, by assumption that the speed of tsunami near the shore is 80 km/hour or 22 m/s is 1.348 Megawatt per meter. This 2011 Japan tsunami is able to enter the land as far as 24 km as the geographic condition of eastern Japan is mostly lowland; mountains are available north of Sendai as there were many active volcano. This is different when tsunami struck Aceh in 2004. Despite of its earthquake Mw magnitude of 9.1, tsunami just enter the land as far as 9 km because Banda Aceh is akin of small lowland that encircled by fault-made mountains and Seulawah volcano.

PRELIMINARY EARTHQUAKES THAT CREATED AN ILLUSION

Before the main 8.9 earthquake hit, there were also a quite big earthquake with magnitude of 7.2 hit the same region on March 9, 2011 at 11.45 Japan Standard Time. This earthquake triggered another earthquake with smaller magnitude on March 10. This phenomenon could draw an illusion on our mind: earthquakes on that time is just following the main M7.2 shock.

Actually, it is not.

On the early day of March 11, 2011, no earthquakes above M4.5 is perceived in Honshu surroundings. One should think that the aftershock is ceased, and the plates boundary should has moved to a new equilibrium. But at 02.46 PM JST, the real shocking begin--until the time this article written, aftershocks still perceived. It was M8.9, the biggest earthquake known for Japan. Tsunami runs and swept Pacific beaches: North Papua, Chile, Hawaii, Guam, and the entire Eastern Japanese beaches.

This earthquake gets the power from swift moving South Pacific Ridge. With the speed of +/- 6 cm a year, the Pacific Plate pushed the Eurasian Plate while he is storing the energy in the fault. The residual energy of this pushing lifted the Eurasian plate. In the D-day, this residual energy is no more bearable by the plate, thus it wil restore to a new stationary state and tara!! an earthquake is happen (with tsunami if it strong enough to trigger it).

HOW EARTHQUAKE SPEEDS UP OUR DAYS

Earthquake, just like other form of energy, is akin an effort to reach what we call higher entropy state. When earthquake happen, some mass of earth is converted into energy. Note that MASS is another form of ENERGY. Like those atomic bombs, earthquake also converts some of earth's mass into energy. The diminishing mass caused by mass to energy conversion can accelerate the rotational speed of earth. Let the initial angular momentum of earth is L1 = mrv. L2 should be the same amount (momentum reservation law) but the v is higher since some m has been lost into energy and assume that the deduction of r is negligible.

The earth axis, is related to the theorem of mass center. Since there is some deduction in mass, the earth will find a new equilibrium, thus it shifted the earth axis relative to the former axis by some millimeter or even centimeter.

EARTHQUAKE AND ENTROPY

Let we see that earth is a closed system having some amount of available energy (symbolized as B), when this energy released in the form of earthquake, this will increase the entropy (S) of earth. This is evidently shows up how second law of thermodynamics works. Thus, every earthquake happening in this world--will bring this world to a more-messy state. :-)

Analogy between Sunspots 1158,1164,1166 on the Sun

Analogy between Sunspots 1158,1164,1166 on the Sun

- A.Deoras

I- Introduction

This article describes the phases of sunspots 1158,1164,1166 on the sun during a period of Feb-Mar 2011. This article tries to establish a relation between the mentioned sunspots ( Magnetic Field Relation) which powered X class flares from region 1158,1166 during the Solar Cycle 24

II- What are Sunspots?

Sunspots are the temporary features on the photosphere of the sun which are formed due to inhibits convection making them to appear dark due to reduced temperature as compared to other regions of sun

III- Magnetic Classification of Sunspots i.e Classification of Sunspots on the nature of magnetic fields around them

Sunspots are classified on the basis of Magnetic field around them i.e on the basis of magnetic poles,their complexity(intensity).

Mount Wilson Sunspot Magnetic Classification

Classification of the magnetic character of sunspots according to rules set forth by the Mount Wilson Observatory in California.

alpha: A unipolar sunspot group.

beta: A sunspot group having both positive and negative magnetic polarities (bipolar), with a simple and distinct division between the polarities.

gamma: A complex active region in which the positive and negative polarities are so irregularly distributed as to prevent classification as a bipolar group.

beta-gamma: A sunspot group that is bipolar but which is sufficiently complex that no single, continuous line can be drawn between spots of opposite polarities.

delta: A qualifier to magnetic classes(see below) indicating that umbrae separated by less than 2 degrees within one penumbra have opposite polarity.

beta-delta: A sunspot group of general beta magnetic classification but containing one (or more) delta spot(s).

beta-gamma-delta: A sunspot group of beta-gamma magnetic classification but containing one (or more) delta spot(s).

gamma-delta: A sunspot group of gamma magnetic classification but containing one (or more) delta spot(s).

II. SUNSPOT 1158-

First appeared - 7th Feb 2011 as an area ( AR 1158)

Disappeared/Rotated Away - Rotated away on 21st Feb 2011

First Significant Flare produced- M6.6 on 13th Feb 2011

Max Flare produced- X2.2 ( First X class flare of Solar Cycle 24)

Date- 15th Feb 2011 at 0156UT

AR 1158 Magnetic Field starts becoming more complex after the formation.

As a result, a marked sunspot 1158 appears on the sun on 11th Feb 2011.

Status as of 11-12th Feb 2011

Sunspot 1158's Magnetograms clearly indicate strengthening of polarity i.e the black and white patches ( South and North pole) respectively becomes wide and complex

The Magnetic classification now reaches a Gamma Magnetic Field which produces C class flares to low M class flares.

13th Feb 2011-

An M6.6 Solar Flare was produced from this sunspot.

Magnetic Classification on 13th Feb- Beta-Gamma magnetic field.

Earth Directed flare caused a R2 Radio Blackout.

Sunspot Widened more than 100,000 kms as seen here

Below are the Magnetogram Images of 12th Feb and 13th Feb of nearly the same time i.e 1753UT.

First Image is of 12th Feb showing Gamma Magnetic field

Second Image is of 13th Feb showing Beta-Gamma Magnetic field.

Note- The polarity of Sunspot 1158 strengthened as seen from widening of black and white patches ( South and North Pole respectively) in a period of 24hrs.

14TH Feb 2011-

Sunspot continued to become more complex due to differential rotation speeds at different latitudes on the sun.

Magnetic field- Beta Gamma Delta.

Above- The 14th Feb Magnetogram of the region encircled in green showing more complex polarity and classification into Beta-Gamma-Delta spot.

15th Feb 2011-

On early morning hours (0156UT), An X2.2 solar flare was released from the sunspot.

The sunspot continued to have a Beta-Gamma-Delta field. But the question arises what made this Sunspot to hurl an X2.2 Solar Flare.

Explanation using a new product view which show something very common with sunspots.

THE MAGNETIC FIELD LINES

AS SEEN FROM THE ABOVE 2048PFSS PLOT, THE SUNSPOT 1158 AS SEEN IN THE LOWER RIGHT OF THE IMAGE HAS SOME SYMMETRICAL MAGNETIC FIELD LINES. MAGNETIC LINES ( ASSUMED ) TO START FROM NORTH POLE( WHITE) REACHING TO BLACK(SOUTH POLE) CONSTITUTING A MAGNETIC DIPOLE.

DESPITE OF THE COMPLEXITY IN POLARITY AS SHOWN BY THE MAGNETOGRAM, THIS IMAGE SHOWS THAT THE MAGNETIC LINES AROUND THE SUNSPOT ARE SYMMETRICAL AND HAVE AN OPEN FIELD STRUCTURE.

III. Sunspot 1166

First Appeared- ( On the earth side of Sun ) on 3rd March 2011

Sunspot had formed on the side of the sun away from the earth.

Disappeared/Rotated away - Presently on the Earth side of Sun

First noted Solar flare- M2 class flare at 1400UT at 7th March 2011.

Max Solar Flare- X1.5 flare

AT- 2323UT on 9th March 2011.

Magnetogram of region 1166 showing a complex bipolar sunspot or Gamma Magnetic field.

6TH MARCH AND 7TH MARCH 2011

Sunspot 1166 continued to evolve and having beta-gamma classification.

Size of Sunspot highly increases.

BELOW-

MAGNETOGRAM IMAGES OF SUNSPOT 1166.

TOP IMAGE IS OF 6TH MARCH SHOWING THE REGION AS SEEN IN THE TOP LEFT OF THE SUN.

SECOND IMAGE IS OF THE MAGNETIC FIELD LINES ON 7TH MARCH 2011.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE, SUNSPOT 1166 PRODUCED AN M CLASS FLARE ON 7TH MARCH.

IT CAN BE NOTICED THAT THE POLARITY IS COMPLEX WITH SYMMETRIC ARRANGEMENT OF MAGNETIC FIELD LINES

*** SAME AS SEEN IN THE CASE OF SUNSPOT 1158 WHICH ALSO HAS OPEN MAGNETIC STRUCTURE

X 1.5 Class flare-

Sunspot 1166 produced an X 1.5 class flare as described here

IV. Sunspot 1164-

First appeared ( On the Earth side of the sun) - 25th Feb 2011

Sunspot had formed on the side of sun away from earth

Disappeared/Rotated away - Rotated away on 10th Mar 2011

First noted Solar flare- 24th Feb 2011 ..M3 Class flare

Max Solar Flare- M1 solar flare at 1431UT on 7th March 2011.

SUNSPOT REGION 1163-1164 FIRST APPEARED ON 25TH FEB 2011.

SUNSPOT DEVELOPED ON THE SIDE OF SUN AWAY FROM THE EARTH.

ON 25TH FEB 2011 THE SUNSPOT HAD "BETA-GAMMA MAGNETIC FIELD"

It was noted that despite having Beta-Gamma magnetic field in the initial period and then a Delta Magnetic classification, sunspot 1164 didn't produce any strong flare other than M1 flare.

Low C class flares were produced by the sunspot during the period of appearance.

MAGNETIC FIELD LINES OF 1164

AS SEEN FROM THE PICTURE ABOVE OF THE MAGNETOGRAM OF 7TH MARCH 2011, THE DELTA SUNSPOT HAS TREMENDOUS COMPLEX POLARITY AND EVEN TWISTED MAGNETIC FIELD LINES.

MAGNETIC FIELD LINES WERE TWISTED IN THE REGION 1164.

*** ALSO SEEN IN THE IMAGE, SUNSPOT 1166 AT THE UPPER LEFT OF THE SUN.

COMPARE THE MAGNETIC FIELD LINES OF THE SUNSPOT 1164 AND 1166!

IV - GENERAL OBSERVATIONS OF THE ACTIVITIES OF SUNSPOTS 1158,1164,1166

1] Sunspot 1158 and 1166 produced an X class flare along with multiple M and C class flares

2] Sunspot 1164 produced NO big flare other than a M1 class flare

3] The overall structure of Magnetic Field lines of Sunspot 1158 and 1166 were identical to each other while the structure of magnetic field lines of sunspot 1164 differed.

4] Sunspot 1158 and 1166 had open magnetic field structure while there was complex magnetic field lines in the region 1164.

V- GRAPHICAL DISPLAY OF MAGNETIC FIELD LINES OF SUNSPOT 1158,1164

- DISPLAY OF SYMMETRIC MAGNETIC FIELD LINES.

THE COMPARISON OF IMAGES OF SUNSPOT 1166,1158 AND 1169 SHOW SYMMETRICAL CORONAL LOOPS.

EXAMPLES BELOW

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

VI. EFFECT OF SYMMETRIC CORONAL LOOPS ON VARIOUS REGIONS OF THE SUN ( Open Flux Tube modification proposal)

As seen from the above few images of the magnetic field around sunspot 1158,1166 we can clearly see that magnetic field lines are symmetrical from one pole to another pole i.e there is no complexity in field line symmetry. Due to such orderly arrangement, there is an area having Coronal loop directly reaching to the transition region of the sun. These coronal loops also have symmetrical arrangement.

From the Photosphere of the sun the coronal loops originate having an extent till the Sun's corona. It can also be said that there is some passage which connects the Sun's interior to the Corona which acts as a gateway to Coronal Mass Ejections.

Due to Symmetry of Coronal loops outside the photosphere, it can be inferred that the symmetry is maintained in the interior part of the sun.

Thus due to supposed orderly arrangement of these coronal loops, there is symmetric magnetic field line arrangement from one polarity to another polarity which enhances energy transfer through transition region and corona.

*** Open Flux tube

Open Flux tube is that passage passing from Sun's interior to Sun's Corona. They are surrounded by the coronal loops.

VII- ELASTIC BAND EXAMPLE AND CONCLUSION

The symmetry of the magnetic field lines can be compared to an elastic band.

Consider an elastic band of any mass,volume.

The elastic band is at rest position with no potential energy stored in it as seen from the below figure top portion ( Untwisted Elastic Band).

On Winding the Elastic band,potential energy of user is stored in it and band takes the form of a twisted band as seen in the lower picture.

After the user removes the hand, Potential Energy gets converted into unwinding energy which again brings back the elastic band in original form as of the top image.

During Winding,after a certain limit ( number of Rotations of the elastic band about the thumb axis of user were the band is held), user can't wind the elastic band. On releasing, band starts unwinding rapidly ( Energy conversion and release)

Thus that becomes the maximum energy limit that can be stored. If user doesn't wind till that Max limit, then on unwinding, weak energy release is obtained.

* Similarly, magnetic field of a sunspot starts winding up due to differential rotation speed at different latitude of the sun. The required energy is stored in the coronal loops.

Some sunspot region reach the maximum limit where they become more symmetrical or maximum wound ( Sunspot 1169,1158,1166) while some don't reach till that max limit ( Sunspot 1164) which restricts Intensity of Solar Flare

BASIC CONCLUSIONS-

1] MAGNETIC FIELD OF EVERY SUNSPOT BECOMES COMPLEX BUT WINDING ABOUT A PERPENDICULAR AXIS PASSING THROUGH THE GEOMETRICAL CENTER OF PERPENDICULAR DISTANCE BETWEEN REGIONS OF OPPOSITE POLARITY

2] SOME SUNSPOTS WHICH ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING X CLASS FLARES HAVE GONE THROUGH MAXIMUM WINDING.

3] SOME SUNSPOTS DON'T REACH TO THE MAXIMA AND SO PRODUCE ONLY LOW CLASS FLARES

4] THE MORE SYMMETRICAL MAGNETIC FIELD( DEGREE OF CLOSENESS OF FIELD LINES) THE MORE HIGH CLASS FLARES AND CORONAL MASS EJECTION THE SUNSPOT CAN TRIGGER.

VIII- References

1] NOAA/NWS Space Weather Prediction Center

2] NASA Solar Dynamic Observatory Magnetograms and close range images

3] Spaceweather.com for providing database on sunspots,solar flare activities and simplified magnetic classification rules

4] Mount Wilson Observatory for providing the rules of Magnetic Classification of Sunspots.

X1.5 class Solar FLARE from Sunspot 1166

Second Image from Top shows the peak time when flare was released.

The bright vertical line at North Central part of Sun is the bright UV radiation released during the flare

Top most image is when the activity started.

SEVERE SOALRWX

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

As mentioned in the previous post about Space Weather, Sunspot 1166 has emitted an X1.5 class flare. The flare emission began at around 2313 UTC ( 9th March 2011) reached a peak at 2323 UTC and ended at 2329UTC.

It was so powerful that it sent an ionization wave towards the earth which caused a Radio Blackout reaching a maximum level of R3 !

Sunspot 1166 continues to have a Beta Gamma Delta magnetic field and open magnetic field which might trigger some more X ray flares

On Feb 15 2011, Sunspot 1158 has released an X2.2 Solar Flare

http://akshaydeoras.blogspot.com/2011/02/x22-solar-flare-from-1158-sunspot.html

NEXT POST-

In my next post, I shall compare the structures of Sunspot 1158 and 1166 which produced X class flares on 15th Feb and 9th March respectively.

Space Shuttle Discovery lands at KSC

Space Shuttle Discovery lands at Kennedy Space Center,FL

STS 133 and Work of Space Shuttle Discovery now over

Discovery Heading back home!

The Weather is permissible at Kennedy Space Center,FL with winds within the limit

Space Shuttle Discovery shall land at Kennedy Space Center,FL at 1157am EST

2227hrs IST. 

De-orbit burn is targeted for 1052am EST

--
Akshay Deoras

Severe Earth & Space Weather Forecaster,Astrophysics article writer.

Web-

www.akshaydeoras.blogspot.com

www.metdweather.blogspot.com

Classic Coronal Mass Ejection from 1165 sunspot

SEVERE SOLARWX

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

The sunspot region 1165 which is at the far limb of the sun produced a M4 Class flare at around 1828UT. The explosion was so powerful that it hurled massive coronal mass ejection into the space

The attached image is the image of sun as seen from the earth. A time lapse of CME can be found here.

The CME is not heading towards the earth rather is directed along a path between Venus and Earth

Approaching CORONAL MASS EJECTION FROM MARCH 7 EVENT

During late night hours on 7th March, there was M2 class flare which hurled a tremendous high velocity coronal mass ejection. Max velocity was around 2200Km/sec

It can be seen here .

The CME as seen from the STEREO BEHIND PLOT is partly directed towards the earth and is expected to cause unsettle magnetosphere ( Minor Storming).

The CME shall arrive tomorrow morning and is expected to cause KP= 5,4

WEATHER FORECAST

* M class flares likely to continue from sunspot 1165 and new M class flares are expected from sunspot 1166 which also posses a Delta Magnetic classification.

Sunspot 1166 is expected to become more complex and capable for producing X c

lass flares.

As the proton flux is above normal level,

Solar Proton storming shall persists till next 24hrs

* With the arrival of CME tomorrow(10th March)

Minor storming is possible with Auroras for high latitude observers.