CME KEEPS WAITING! MAJOR GEOMAGNETIC STORM LIKELY TODAY

SEVERE SOLARWX
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster

The anticipated Coronal Mass Ejection of 10th March 2012 hasn't arrived! The CME which was expected to hit the Earth's magnetic field on night hours ( GMT) of 12th March hasn't reached the earth!

The 9th March CME which had arrived on 11th March producing no effect became "Geoeffective" yesterday which caused a short time G2 Geomagnetic Storm! There was a major debate whether the storming was due to late effects of 9th March CME or early effects of 10th March CME but looking at the datas from ACE satellite and the deflection at Space Weather Prediction Center,Boulder it seems that that was a reviving effect from 9th March event

The above plot from the ACE satellite depicts the geomagnetic sudden impulse of yesterday at around 0843UT which later followed by a Southward Bz produced a G2 storm
Auroras were reported in some parts of Australia,New Zealand with some ground currents in Norway!


Scenario now-
Right now it seems that the wait for the CME will continue for some more time today. SWPC has mentioned that they are expecting a Major Storming today

Here is what they have mentioned. STAY TUNED FOR THE UPDATES AS WE DO EXPECT THE CME TO HIT TODAY

BUT WHEN????

Top News of the Day: 2012-03-12 23:25 UTC  Continued Geomagnetic Storming Possible Continued geomagnetic activity reaching the G3 (Strong) level is possible between now and the end of March 13 as the parade of recent coronal mass ejections affect Earth.  Meanwhile, the Solar Radiation Storm has decreased below the S1 (Minor) threshold and continues a slow decay toward background levels.  Region 1429 remains complex, but is showing signs of weakening.  No significant Radio Blackout events have been observed in the last 36 hours, so no further significant activity is currently expected after March 13

Space Weather Prediction Center finally agrees with Severe SolarWX forecast,Major Geomagnetic Storming likely on 13th March

SEVERE SOLARWX
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster

In a high level drama, the Space Weather Prediction Center called off the Geomagnetic Storming probability of 11th March today morning saying that geomagnetic storming conditions don't exist now!

The SPWC had initially expected the 9th March event generated CME to be a significant one causing a G3 level storm. However SSW, mentioned that at the most a G1 level storm will trigger;

However the momentum of CME was so low that it didn't produce any geomagnetic storming!

The Space Weather Prediction Center now has upgraded the chance of SEVERE GEOMAGNETIC STORMING on 13th March to as high as 60%

They are now expecting a G3 level storm! To err is human in nature so doesn't matter SPWC if the forecast went wrong!

The Forecast models continue to indicate a MAJOR CME heading towards collision! The CME is expected to arrive tonight ( GMT) and causing much of the action on 13th that is tomorrow!

Based on the estimates, Severe SOLARWX expects a MAJOR GEOMAGNETIC STORMING

The Geomagnetic Storm will be reaching a G3 level for sure on 13th March. Also the present S1 solar radiation storm is likely to be boosted as the bunch of elevated energy levels of protons hit the earth's magnetic field.

The IMF Bz polarity seems to be Northward at the geomagnetic sudden impulse and a slow start can be expected to the storming. The polarity will swing once the impulse takes place

The Bz polarity is always a deciding factor which has a very less scale of correct forecast

SEVERE SOLARWX enters print media


Today, Severe SolarWX forecast appeared in a leading Marathi newspaper of Central India i.e Tarun Bharat. The forecast has been for 13th march event. This has been a maiden space weather forecast published in any newspaper here as others are primarily reports. The forecast has been published in Marathi language. 


It can be seen at the top ! 


STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES

Geomagnetic Storming expected today,Major one expected o 12th

SEVERE SOLARWX
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster

The M 6.3 Solar Flare of 9th Mar 2012 produced a Coronal Mass Ejection which is heading towards the Earth and is expected to land today. The initial estimates suggested that the CME was moving for an indirect collision with the Earth's Magnetosphere due to which the anticipated intensity was being considered as less. However the Space Weather Prediction Center in their recent update mentioned that they are expecting a G3 level storming!

However, the updated model analysis still shows that the momentum of the impact will be less and given the expected Northward polarity of Bz vector of IMF, the Geomagnetic Storming will have a weak start that is a G1 initially.

Moreover, SSW expects the storm to be a G1 or at the most a G2 storm. 

M 8.4 Solar Flare of 10th Mar 2012


On 1715 UT,10th Mar the sunspot 1429 produced a M 8.4 Solar Flare. There was a Major Coronal Mass Ejection associated with the flare easily noted by the STEREO Spacecraft. 


SEE THE VIDEO HERE 

THE CME IS A FAST MOVING CME AND HAS HIGH MOMENTUM. 

THE CME FROM THIS EVENT IS EXPECTED TO HIT THE EARTH'S MAGNETIC FIELD ON 12TH MARCH 2012 I.E TOMORROW NIGHT GMT 

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE GEOMAGNETIC STORMING WITH LEVELS EASILY ELEVATING TO G3

MEGA-GEOMAGNETIC STORM

THE EARTH'S MAGNETIC FIELD IN RECENT HAS RECEIVED MULTIPLE SHOCKWAVES DUE TO MANY CME AND IN CONTINUATION IS EXPECTED TO GET A DOUBLE-HIT

THE FIRST CME FROM 9TH MARCH EVENT WILL ARRIVE TODAY WITH STORMING BEGINNING FROM NIGHT GMT AND WILL DECLINE OR CONTINUE TILL 12TH MARCH 2012

AFTER THE EVENT RELAXES, CME FROM 10TH MARCH EVENT WILL HIT BY EVENING OR NIGHT WHICH WILL BE STRONGER THAN THE 9TH MARCH EVENT

THUS A MEGA-GEOMAGNETIC STORMING WILL UNFURL AND AURORAS AGAIN WILL BE SEEN IN THE MID-LATITUDES AND THE POLAR REGIONS

ONGOING SOLAR RADIATION STORM- 

THE HISTORIC SOLAR RADIATION STORM IS FINALLY DECLINING AND IS AT THE S1 LEVEL!

I AM STILL VERIFYING WHETHER THE 10TH MARCH EVENT DID SEND SOME PROTONS OR NOT. IT NORMALLY DOESN'T TAKE SO MUCH TIME FOR PROTONS TO ARRIVE

HOWEVER, AS THE CME FROM M8.4 FLARE ARRIVES, THERE WILL BE AN UPSURGE IN THE PROTON FLUX AND HENCE REVIVING THE SOLAR RADIATION STORM!

STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES!!!

SIGNIFICANT GEOMAGNETIC STORMING POSSIBLE DUE TO X 5.4 SOLAR FLARE

SEVERE SOLARWX

AKSHAY DEORAS

SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTER

HISTORIC GEOMAGNETIC STORMING LIKELY. ALERT FOR HYPER-ACTIVE SPACE WEATHER

The Mega Flare of X 5.4 from Sunspot 1429 on 7th March 2012 early period GMT has hurled a very massive Coronal Mass Ejection. In the last post,datas were suspicious about the amount of CME released and coupled with no animation available from SOHO lead to miscalculation. 

Right now it seems that a very major CME is heading towards the Earth. The analyst at Goddard Space Flight Center which also recalculated CME intensity indicate the approaching CME

Considering the intensity of the shockwave ( estimated) the Space Weather Prediction Center estimates a G3 Geomagnetic Storming which Severe Solar WX AGREES WITH IT

If the intensity is really too high then we may even get a G4 Geomagnetic Storm!

The Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse is being expected in the afternoon hours ( GMT) of today,8th March 2012 and the storming shall begin into night hours of today ( 8th March),persisting for tomorrow ( 9th March also)

THUS THIS GEOMAGNETIC STORMING IS GOING TO PROMISE AURORAS FOR MID LATITUDE REGIONS ALSO INCLUDING HIGH LATITUDE AREAS

PEOPLE MUST WATCH OUT FOR THEM!

SOLAR RADIATION STORM UPDATE-

The S3 Solar Radiation Storm is continuing now with more than 12hrs of S3 category. The Proton flux indicates that the the overall proton number per unit area unit time and unit steradian has enhanced to over 1000 protons ( 10^3+) 

The Solar Protons are expected to continue for today ( 8th March also)

Photos of Sunspot 1429

The sunspot 1429 which has become the star of attraction was captured by me today morning from Nagpur,India using an ordinary camera of 14.1 megapixel

STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES!!!

Hyperactivity on the Sun!

SEVERE SOLARWX
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster

The Hyper-active Sunspot 1429 has hurled another Very Major Solar Flare X 5.4 shortly after 12AM GMT,7th March 2012



The X5.4 Solar Flare emission took place beginning at 0002UTC reaching peak 0024UTC and ending at 0040UTC!

NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center also mentioned a X1.3 Solar Flare shortly after the X 5.4 at 0120UTC.Thus TWO STRAIGHT HIGH END SOLAR FLARES

The X-ray flux reported a sharp peak shortly after 12AM or 0000UTC.

After the solar flare got released, a R3 Radio Blackout was experienced on the sunlit side of the earth which affected largely the High frequency communication as can be seen from the above image of D-RAP

CORONAL MASS EJECTION- 
Its generally associated with such high class Solar Flares. The datas from STEREO spacecraft are indicating that there has been a MODERATE Coronal Mass Ejection released from this region after the Solar Flare was emitted. 


Though its for the first time in so many years that on Visual observation, it does appear that not a significant CME was hurled after the flare. Even the analyst at Goddard Space Flight Center predicting not a major CME release from it which supports my visual observation through datas for STEREO. 




Here is below what the models are indicating about-

The CME hence shall give a minor blow to the Earth on late period of 9th March 2012 into morning hours of 10th March 2012 GMT.. I don't expect a significant storming from it

Meanwhile, the reports from previous activities of the Sun have appeared today in the form of a G2 Geomagnetic Storm ( MODERATE) due to March 4 2012 M class flare from the sun with the KP index reaching as 6

SOLAR RADIATION STORM 


The X 5.4 Solar Flare from today's early morning flare also gave a significant boost to the protons which got elevated in terms of their energies and hence a Solar Radiation Storm of S2 intensity has been set. The datas from the Proton Flux are depicting an increasing trend and hence a high end S2 Solar Radiation Storm which is being witnessed now shall continue for a more while!




Forecast-


More X class and M class Solar Flares are expected from the region 1429 which is over 4 times the size of the earth. 


The space weather is expected to be ACTIVE mainly Solar Radiation Storm and Geomagnetic Storm 


ALERT_ 
Sunspot 1429 is turing GEO-EFFECTIVE AND HENCE IS LIKELY TO AFFECT THE EARTH's Space Weather significantly!

M9 Class Solar Flare with CME released towards the Earth

A Major Solar Flare ( M9+) is in progress and has caused a Radio Blackout R2

monitor the situation LIVE

HERE

Update- 
0520hrs UTC,23rd Jan 2012


The Solar Flare has been recorded as an M9 or the last level of the M class flare! Coronal Mass Ejection has taken place which is heading towards the earth due to the geo-effective position. The source of this Solar flare seems to be the region AR 1402 and not the AR 1401

STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES

Moderate Geomagnetic Storming possible ahead of CME release from M3 Solar Flare

SEVERE SOLARWX
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster

The nearly quiet space weather has activated after a brief gap considering the 1-Month ( Dec 2011) avg sunspot number to be less ( decreased value) after Nov 2011 as per Solar IPS.The observed no is 73.0 as against the predicted of ~ 72 for Dec 2011

More over, the Sunspot no of Nov 2011 was as high as 96.7 as against the predicted ~ 69 

With this, the sunspot no. has decreased from its previous month after June 2011. 

However the Sunspot region 1401 produced a Strong M3 class Solar Flare yesterday,19th Jan 2012 at around 1515-1630hrs UT

The Solar Flare caused R1 Radio Blackout  ( associated with X ray emission of the Solar Flare) reached the earth and impacted the Ionosphere

Have a look at the STEREO image of the CME release here

The CME is an Earth-directed one which has been confirmed through the model guidance. It does appear that the CME will hit the Earth's magnetic field sometime around early morning hours of Jan 22nd 2012 ( UTC ). The intensity is being monitored closely and I shall update later on it due to shortage of time now. 

However I do expect a Moderate Geomagnetic Storming ( G=2) around with plenty of Auroras reserved for the high latitude areas. 

Solar Weather Forecast-

I w'd like to discuss two aspects I am observing now from the Solar Dynamic Observatory images of Sun. 

1] As seen from the above imagery of magnetic lines, it does appear that Sunspot 1401 ( Visible as lower part of the two giant whitish region in North-Central part of sun) has symmetric magnetic field. 

As per the paper of SSW, sunspots having symmetric magnetic field posses energy for high end solar flares. 

I expect this sunspot to hurl some more high end M class flares to minor X ray flares in the coming days which are likely going to be earth-directed! 

Secondly, 

There appears a very large and marked Coronal Loop of the Sunspot 1402 just above the sunspot 1401. The coronal loops are those structures which extend in the  Solar Corona and anchored below the chromosphere in Solar Transition Region. Its a belief that in these coronal loops, there are ongoing heat transfer in them with the associated magnetic field. 

Some reports claim that when such coronal loops break, CME happen releasing tons of solar wind in the space. It will be an opportunity to study how there coronal loops behave at this time. 

Stay tuned for the updates!

Sunspot region 1126-1127 produces a M2 class Solar Flare

SEVERE SOLARWX

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

The anticipated sunspot region 1126-1127 which had produced a borderline M class Solar Flare few days ago has now produced a M2 class flare. On June 7th at 0641UT this solar flare was released with lots of Coronal Mass Ejection happened at the time of erruption,most of the CME fell back on the Surface of the Sun due to Sun's gravity where the Escape Velocity 617.5km/sec is there.

The Coronal Mass Ejection cloud has velocity of more than 1100km/sec but some cloud had velocity less than Sun's Escape Velocity so it was attracted back!

This eruption also sent a stream of charged particles ( Protons mostly) towards the Earth which led to a S1 Solar Radiation Storm.

Forecast-

The Coronal Mass Ejection is heading towards the Earth as depicted by the STEREO BEACON DATA. The CME shall give a Glancing Blow and expected to reach by tomorrow ( June 9)

High Latitude observers are going to get an opportunity to witness Active Geomagnetic Storming conditions with Auroras likely during the period

Check the video here