CME KEEPS WAITING! MAJOR GEOMAGNETIC STORM LIKELY TODAY

SEVERE SOLARWX
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster

The anticipated Coronal Mass Ejection of 10th March 2012 hasn't arrived! The CME which was expected to hit the Earth's magnetic field on night hours ( GMT) of 12th March hasn't reached the earth!

The 9th March CME which had arrived on 11th March producing no effect became "Geoeffective" yesterday which caused a short time G2 Geomagnetic Storm! There was a major debate whether the storming was due to late effects of 9th March CME or early effects of 10th March CME but looking at the datas from ACE satellite and the deflection at Space Weather Prediction Center,Boulder it seems that that was a reviving effect from 9th March event

The above plot from the ACE satellite depicts the geomagnetic sudden impulse of yesterday at around 0843UT which later followed by a Southward Bz produced a G2 storm
Auroras were reported in some parts of Australia,New Zealand with some ground currents in Norway!


Scenario now-
Right now it seems that the wait for the CME will continue for some more time today. SWPC has mentioned that they are expecting a Major Storming today

Here is what they have mentioned. STAY TUNED FOR THE UPDATES AS WE DO EXPECT THE CME TO HIT TODAY

BUT WHEN????

Top News of the Day: 2012-03-12 23:25 UTC  Continued Geomagnetic Storming Possible Continued geomagnetic activity reaching the G3 (Strong) level is possible between now and the end of March 13 as the parade of recent coronal mass ejections affect Earth.  Meanwhile, the Solar Radiation Storm has decreased below the S1 (Minor) threshold and continues a slow decay toward background levels.  Region 1429 remains complex, but is showing signs of weakening.  No significant Radio Blackout events have been observed in the last 36 hours, so no further significant activity is currently expected after March 13

Major Geomagnetic Storming expected due to CME of M9 class flare

SEVERE SOLARWX
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster

A MAJOR GEOMAGNETIC STORMING IS LIKELY FROM TONIGHT ( GMT) OVER 25TH JAN 2012


The Mega-flare of January 23rd, which released massive and very very fast moving CME towards the Earth is expected to cause a Major Geomagnetic Storming. Initial estimates from the Goddard Space Flight Center confirm that the CME speed was over 2200km/sec when released !

The arriving models are confirming that the CME is Earth-directed and likely to hit the Earth's Magnetic Field on night hours of 24th Jan 2012 today ( GMT).

As the momentum of CME is very high, it will definitely give a very strong hit to the Earth's magnetic field which definitely will trigger Major Geomagnetic Storm

The estimates are suggesting that the Geomagnetic Storming level can reach upto G3 level which the Space Weather Prediction Center of NOAA also suggests.

Attached below is the model which shows the approaching CME

Below model image shows CME just before the impact-

Highlights-


A VERY STRONG CME IS HEADING TOWARDS THE EARTH AND WILL HIT THE EARTH'S MAGNETIC FIELD ON NIGHT HOURS ( GMT) OF 24TH JAN 2012


* A MODERATE TO STRONG GEOMAGNETIC STORM UPTO G3 LEVEL IS EXPECTED DUE TO IT

* THE MEGA FLARE ALSO BOOSTED SOLAR PROTONS WHICH HAS CAUSED A S3 LEVEL SOLAR RADIATION STORM WHICH LAST HAPPENED IN 2005. 


* THE FLIGHTS TRAVELLING IN POLAR ORBIT ( POLAR ROUTE) WERE EXPECTED TO MAKE A PATH CHANGE TO AVOID EXPOSURE TO RADIATION!


* THE CME WILL SPARKLE AURORAS IN HIGH LATITUDE AND LIKELY IN LOW LATITUDE AREAS ALSO. 


STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES @ 


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