CME KEEPS WAITING! MAJOR GEOMAGNETIC STORM LIKELY TODAY

SEVERE SOLARWX
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster

The anticipated Coronal Mass Ejection of 10th March 2012 hasn't arrived! The CME which was expected to hit the Earth's magnetic field on night hours ( GMT) of 12th March hasn't reached the earth!

The 9th March CME which had arrived on 11th March producing no effect became "Geoeffective" yesterday which caused a short time G2 Geomagnetic Storm! There was a major debate whether the storming was due to late effects of 9th March CME or early effects of 10th March CME but looking at the datas from ACE satellite and the deflection at Space Weather Prediction Center,Boulder it seems that that was a reviving effect from 9th March event

The above plot from the ACE satellite depicts the geomagnetic sudden impulse of yesterday at around 0843UT which later followed by a Southward Bz produced a G2 storm
Auroras were reported in some parts of Australia,New Zealand with some ground currents in Norway!


Scenario now-
Right now it seems that the wait for the CME will continue for some more time today. SWPC has mentioned that they are expecting a Major Storming today

Here is what they have mentioned. STAY TUNED FOR THE UPDATES AS WE DO EXPECT THE CME TO HIT TODAY

BUT WHEN????

Top News of the Day: 2012-03-12 23:25 UTC  Continued Geomagnetic Storming Possible Continued geomagnetic activity reaching the G3 (Strong) level is possible between now and the end of March 13 as the parade of recent coronal mass ejections affect Earth.  Meanwhile, the Solar Radiation Storm has decreased below the S1 (Minor) threshold and continues a slow decay toward background levels.  Region 1429 remains complex, but is showing signs of weakening.  No significant Radio Blackout events have been observed in the last 36 hours, so no further significant activity is currently expected after March 13

Geomagnetic Storming expected today,Major one expected o 12th

SEVERE SOLARWX
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster

The M 6.3 Solar Flare of 9th Mar 2012 produced a Coronal Mass Ejection which is heading towards the Earth and is expected to land today. The initial estimates suggested that the CME was moving for an indirect collision with the Earth's Magnetosphere due to which the anticipated intensity was being considered as less. However the Space Weather Prediction Center in their recent update mentioned that they are expecting a G3 level storming!

However, the updated model analysis still shows that the momentum of the impact will be less and given the expected Northward polarity of Bz vector of IMF, the Geomagnetic Storming will have a weak start that is a G1 initially.

Moreover, SSW expects the storm to be a G1 or at the most a G2 storm. 

M 8.4 Solar Flare of 10th Mar 2012


On 1715 UT,10th Mar the sunspot 1429 produced a M 8.4 Solar Flare. There was a Major Coronal Mass Ejection associated with the flare easily noted by the STEREO Spacecraft. 


SEE THE VIDEO HERE 

THE CME IS A FAST MOVING CME AND HAS HIGH MOMENTUM. 

THE CME FROM THIS EVENT IS EXPECTED TO HIT THE EARTH'S MAGNETIC FIELD ON 12TH MARCH 2012 I.E TOMORROW NIGHT GMT 

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE GEOMAGNETIC STORMING WITH LEVELS EASILY ELEVATING TO G3

MEGA-GEOMAGNETIC STORM

THE EARTH'S MAGNETIC FIELD IN RECENT HAS RECEIVED MULTIPLE SHOCKWAVES DUE TO MANY CME AND IN CONTINUATION IS EXPECTED TO GET A DOUBLE-HIT

THE FIRST CME FROM 9TH MARCH EVENT WILL ARRIVE TODAY WITH STORMING BEGINNING FROM NIGHT GMT AND WILL DECLINE OR CONTINUE TILL 12TH MARCH 2012

AFTER THE EVENT RELAXES, CME FROM 10TH MARCH EVENT WILL HIT BY EVENING OR NIGHT WHICH WILL BE STRONGER THAN THE 9TH MARCH EVENT

THUS A MEGA-GEOMAGNETIC STORMING WILL UNFURL AND AURORAS AGAIN WILL BE SEEN IN THE MID-LATITUDES AND THE POLAR REGIONS

ONGOING SOLAR RADIATION STORM- 

THE HISTORIC SOLAR RADIATION STORM IS FINALLY DECLINING AND IS AT THE S1 LEVEL!

I AM STILL VERIFYING WHETHER THE 10TH MARCH EVENT DID SEND SOME PROTONS OR NOT. IT NORMALLY DOESN'T TAKE SO MUCH TIME FOR PROTONS TO ARRIVE

HOWEVER, AS THE CME FROM M8.4 FLARE ARRIVES, THERE WILL BE AN UPSURGE IN THE PROTON FLUX AND HENCE REVIVING THE SOLAR RADIATION STORM!

STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES!!!

G3 Geomagnetic Storming in progress,another CME heads towards the Earth

SEVERE SOLARWX
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster

The anticipated G3 Geomagnetic Storming is in full swing now with the Kp index at Kp=7. As was mentioned in the last post, favored Southward Bz helped the storming.

AURORAS ARE EXPECTED IN MID LATITUDE REGIONS OF BOTH THE HEMISPHERE AS WELL AS POLAR REGIONS. 


PEOPLE CAN SEND THEIR PHOTOS AT akshaydeoras@hotmail.com WHICH WILL BE POSTED ON THE BLOG WITH DUE CREDIT .


The Bz IMF is turning Northwards again and hence the G3 level may be the zenith of the event

Coronal Mass Ejection from AR 1429 on 9th March 2012

As mentioned in the last post, a strong M 6.3 Solar Flare was released from AR 1429 which hurled a Coronal Mass Ejection as seen from the animation captured by the STEREO spacecraft

THE CME IS HEADING TOWARDS THE EARTH! THE FORECAST MODELS ARE ESTIMATING ITS INTENSITY AND TIMINGS BUT MAY REACH THE EARTH ON 10-11TH MARCH 2012


MEANWHILE,THE SOLAR RADIATION STORM HAS DECREASED FROM S3 TO S2 LEVEL


STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES

SIGNIFICANT GEOMAGNETIC STORMING POSSIBLE DUE TO X 5.4 SOLAR FLARE

SEVERE SOLARWX

AKSHAY DEORAS

SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTER

HISTORIC GEOMAGNETIC STORMING LIKELY. ALERT FOR HYPER-ACTIVE SPACE WEATHER

The Mega Flare of X 5.4 from Sunspot 1429 on 7th March 2012 early period GMT has hurled a very massive Coronal Mass Ejection. In the last post,datas were suspicious about the amount of CME released and coupled with no animation available from SOHO lead to miscalculation. 

Right now it seems that a very major CME is heading towards the Earth. The analyst at Goddard Space Flight Center which also recalculated CME intensity indicate the approaching CME

Considering the intensity of the shockwave ( estimated) the Space Weather Prediction Center estimates a G3 Geomagnetic Storming which Severe Solar WX AGREES WITH IT

If the intensity is really too high then we may even get a G4 Geomagnetic Storm!

The Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse is being expected in the afternoon hours ( GMT) of today,8th March 2012 and the storming shall begin into night hours of today ( 8th March),persisting for tomorrow ( 9th March also)

THUS THIS GEOMAGNETIC STORMING IS GOING TO PROMISE AURORAS FOR MID LATITUDE REGIONS ALSO INCLUDING HIGH LATITUDE AREAS

PEOPLE MUST WATCH OUT FOR THEM!

SOLAR RADIATION STORM UPDATE-

The S3 Solar Radiation Storm is continuing now with more than 12hrs of S3 category. The Proton flux indicates that the the overall proton number per unit area unit time and unit steradian has enhanced to over 1000 protons ( 10^3+) 

The Solar Protons are expected to continue for today ( 8th March also)

Photos of Sunspot 1429

The sunspot 1429 which has become the star of attraction was captured by me today morning from Nagpur,India using an ordinary camera of 14.1 megapixel

STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES!!!

Hyperactivity on the Sun!

SEVERE SOLARWX
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster

The Hyper-active Sunspot 1429 has hurled another Very Major Solar Flare X 5.4 shortly after 12AM GMT,7th March 2012



The X5.4 Solar Flare emission took place beginning at 0002UTC reaching peak 0024UTC and ending at 0040UTC!

NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center also mentioned a X1.3 Solar Flare shortly after the X 5.4 at 0120UTC.Thus TWO STRAIGHT HIGH END SOLAR FLARES

The X-ray flux reported a sharp peak shortly after 12AM or 0000UTC.

After the solar flare got released, a R3 Radio Blackout was experienced on the sunlit side of the earth which affected largely the High frequency communication as can be seen from the above image of D-RAP

CORONAL MASS EJECTION- 
Its generally associated with such high class Solar Flares. The datas from STEREO spacecraft are indicating that there has been a MODERATE Coronal Mass Ejection released from this region after the Solar Flare was emitted. 


Though its for the first time in so many years that on Visual observation, it does appear that not a significant CME was hurled after the flare. Even the analyst at Goddard Space Flight Center predicting not a major CME release from it which supports my visual observation through datas for STEREO. 




Here is below what the models are indicating about-

The CME hence shall give a minor blow to the Earth on late period of 9th March 2012 into morning hours of 10th March 2012 GMT.. I don't expect a significant storming from it

Meanwhile, the reports from previous activities of the Sun have appeared today in the form of a G2 Geomagnetic Storm ( MODERATE) due to March 4 2012 M class flare from the sun with the KP index reaching as 6

SOLAR RADIATION STORM 


The X 5.4 Solar Flare from today's early morning flare also gave a significant boost to the protons which got elevated in terms of their energies and hence a Solar Radiation Storm of S2 intensity has been set. The datas from the Proton Flux are depicting an increasing trend and hence a high end S2 Solar Radiation Storm which is being witnessed now shall continue for a more while!




Forecast-


More X class and M class Solar Flares are expected from the region 1429 which is over 4 times the size of the earth. 


The space weather is expected to be ACTIVE mainly Solar Radiation Storm and Geomagnetic Storm 


ALERT_ 
Sunspot 1429 is turing GEO-EFFECTIVE AND HENCE IS LIKELY TO AFFECT THE EARTH's Space Weather significantly!

Major Geomagnetic Storming expected due to CME of M9 class flare

SEVERE SOLARWX
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster

A MAJOR GEOMAGNETIC STORMING IS LIKELY FROM TONIGHT ( GMT) OVER 25TH JAN 2012


The Mega-flare of January 23rd, which released massive and very very fast moving CME towards the Earth is expected to cause a Major Geomagnetic Storming. Initial estimates from the Goddard Space Flight Center confirm that the CME speed was over 2200km/sec when released !

The arriving models are confirming that the CME is Earth-directed and likely to hit the Earth's Magnetic Field on night hours of 24th Jan 2012 today ( GMT).

As the momentum of CME is very high, it will definitely give a very strong hit to the Earth's magnetic field which definitely will trigger Major Geomagnetic Storm

The estimates are suggesting that the Geomagnetic Storming level can reach upto G3 level which the Space Weather Prediction Center of NOAA also suggests.

Attached below is the model which shows the approaching CME

Below model image shows CME just before the impact-

Highlights-


A VERY STRONG CME IS HEADING TOWARDS THE EARTH AND WILL HIT THE EARTH'S MAGNETIC FIELD ON NIGHT HOURS ( GMT) OF 24TH JAN 2012


* A MODERATE TO STRONG GEOMAGNETIC STORM UPTO G3 LEVEL IS EXPECTED DUE TO IT

* THE MEGA FLARE ALSO BOOSTED SOLAR PROTONS WHICH HAS CAUSED A S3 LEVEL SOLAR RADIATION STORM WHICH LAST HAPPENED IN 2005. 


* THE FLIGHTS TRAVELLING IN POLAR ORBIT ( POLAR ROUTE) WERE EXPECTED TO MAKE A PATH CHANGE TO AVOID EXPOSURE TO RADIATION!


* THE CME WILL SPARKLE AURORAS IN HIGH LATITUDE AND LIKELY IN LOW LATITUDE AREAS ALSO. 


STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES @ 


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