Magnitude 6.9 Earthquake strikes Sikkim,India

I am very unfortunate to announce that a Moderate Earthquake of 6.9 on richter scale ( USGC) has happened with the Epicenter at Sikkim.

*** FOR THE NEXT 24HRS, THERE IS A STRONG THREAT FOR SOME AFTERSHOCKS IN THE REGION. EACH AFTERSHOCK RESEMBLES AN EARTHQUAKE****


**** PEOPLE IN TALL BUILDINGS AND OTHER AREAS MUST WATCH OUT FOR THIS *** 


*** DOS AND DONTS DURING OR AFTER EARTHQUAKE***


  ‎03322145486

EMERGENCY HELPLINE NUMBER FOR SIKKIM EARTHQUAKE

************************************************************************

Img Courtesy- AP

As per USGC, the earthquake struck at 27.72N,88.06E which is around 68 km (42 miles) NW of Gangtok, Sikkim, India
119 km (73 miles) NNW of Shiliguri, West Bengal, India
272 km (169 miles) E of KATHMANDU, Nepal
572 km (355 miles) N of Kolkata (Calcutta), West Bengal, India

The epicenter was about 19.7km deep which definitely can be considered as fortunate because earthquakes at shallow areas are very likely to create more damage. 

The Earthquake happened at around 0610PM IST and datas from USGC confirming that  V to VI th intensity shaking was reported around the epicenter that is in the ENTIRE SIKKIM AREA,NORTH WEST BENGAL AND EASTERN NEPAL AND NORTHERN BANGLADESH

*** AS PER USGC SCALE, THESE INTENSITY EARTHQUAKES ARE PRONE TO CAUSE LIGHT DAMAGE BUT IN INDIA, SUCH A STRONG EARTHQUAKE OFTEN CAUSES LARGE DAMAGE ESPECIALLY TO LIFE AND PROPERTY

AFTER THE MAIN EARTHQUAKE, 2 AFTERSHOCKS WERE REPORTED

1ST AFTERSHOCK-

 06:41:57PM IST 

MAGNITUDE- 4.8 

** THIS AFTERSHOCK WAS JUST 25KM WNW OF GANGTOK*** 

2ND AFTERSHOCK

07:24:18PM IST

MAGNITUDE- 4.6

*** THIS EARTHQUAKE WAS 34KM W OF GANGTOK***

---------------------------- ------------------------------------ ------------------------------- ------------------------------------ -----------------------

DAMAGES- 

COURTESY- CNN IBN 

 The DGP of Sikkim said that many buildings were damaged. He also said that roads were blocked and people were stranded on roads. He said that the Sikkim Chief Minister Pawan Chamling has called for an emergency meeting.

Arvind Kumar, Principal Resident Commissioner of Sikkim said that there was excessive damage in the northern parts of Sikkim. He also said that the rescue operations had started in the area. 

There were also reports of landslides following the earthquake in areas around Sikkim and also Darjeeling.

The Prime Minister also spoke to the Sikkim Chief Minister and offered all help. The Prime Minister also directed the Cabinet Secretary to call for an emergency meeting.

There were reports of damages from Bihar. Two buildings collapsed in Katihar in Bihar. The NTPC power plant in Kahalgaon in Bihar has also been shut down because of the earthquake following which North Bihar was under power crisis. 

METD WEATHER- There has been a massive power cut right now in Sikkim due to the earthquake. 

Areas in Northern West Bengal also are in darkness right now. 

** TELEPHONE LINES HAVE BEEN DAMAGED IN SIKKIM**

Fatalities are being reported from Nepal and minor from Sikkim especially from Khatmandu. 

The tremors also were reported on light scale in Delhi,Uttar Pradesh,Bihal ( DAMAGE BEING REPORTED AROUND NALANDA),Jharkhand,North East India

SCIENTIFIC DETAILS 

THE EARTHQUAKE HAPPENED AT A VERY OLD AND LESS ACTIVE FAULT LINE. 

THE INDIAN PLATE IN THIS REGION THRUSTS BENEATH THE EURASIAN PLATE. OUT OF THE SOME THRUST FAULTS, 

COURTESY- ASC INDIA.
THE HAZARD MAP FOR SIKKIM

MBT - MAIN BOUNDARY THRUST

MCT- MAIN CENTRAL THRUST

HFF- HIMALAYAN FRONTAL THRUST

THE ABOVE IMAGE SHOWS THE MAIN EARTHQUAKE I.E GIANT SQUARE FOLLOWED BY 2 AFTERSHOCKS ALL PRODUCED NEAR THE THRUST FAULTS.

THE USGC INTENSITY MAP SHOWING YELLOW/GREEN REGION OF INT V TO IV SHOWING MODERATE SHAKING

SHAKING INTENSITY USGS. THIS MAP WILL BE UPDATED RAPIDLY AS MORE UPDATES FLY IN

DUE TO THIS NATURE OF THRUST FAULTS, GOVT OF INDIA HAD PUT SIKKIM IN THE ZONE IV SEISMIC HAZARD. 

PAST EARTHQUAKES 

COURTESY- ASC,INDIA

 18 earthquakes of magnitude 5 or greater over the past 35 years within 100 km of the epicenter of the September 18 event. The largest of these was a magnitude 6.1 earthquake in November of 1980, which occurred 75 km to the southeast. ( USGC)

Largest Instrumented Earthquake in Sikkim
19 November 1980 - Near Gangtok (Sikkim-West Bengal Border region), 6.1 Ms (PAS)
19:00:46.9 UTC, 27.39N, 88.75E, 17 kms depth
Eight people were injured in Gangtok and there was also minor damage reported from the city. the quake was felt in eastern and north-eastern India, Bangladesh, Bhutan and Nepal.

Significant Earthquakes in Sikkim
The following list briefly outlines known earthquakes in this region. General locations are provided for historical events for which "generalized" epicentral co-ordinates are available.Some events which were significant for other reasons are also included. This list will be updated whenever newer information is available. Please note that Magnitude and Intensity are NOT THE SAME. All events are within the state or union territory covered on this page unless stated otherwise.

Acronyms Used:D=Depth, OT=Origin Time, Mw=Moment Magnitude, Ms=Surface Wave magnitude, Mb=Body Wave Magnitude, ML=Local Magnitude, M?=Magnitude Type unknown

15 January 1934 - Indo-Nepal Border region, Mw 8.0
14:21:25 IST / 08:43:25 UTC, 26.50N, 86.50E
Nearly 10,500 people were killed in Bihar and Nepal. Damage was also reported from many towns in Sikkim.

12 January 1965 - West of Gangtok (Indo-Nepal Border region), 6.1 (TS)
13:32:24 UTC, 27.60N, 88.00E

19 November 1980 - Near Gangtok (Sikkim-West Bengal Border region), 6.1 Ms (PAS)
19:00:46.9 UTC, 27.39N, 88.75E, 17 kms depth
Eight people were injured in Gangtok and there was also minor damage reported from the city. The quake was felt in eastern and north-eastern India, Bangladesh, Bhutan and Nepal.

21 August 1988 -  Udaipur Gahri, Nepal (Indo-Nepal Border region), Mw 6.8 (NEIC)
23:09:09 UTC / 04:39:09 IST, 26.755N 86.616
Nearly 900 people were killed in the border districts of Nepal and Bihar, India. Damage was also reported from Kathmandu and Sikkim. Felt over much of northern and eastern India and much of Nepal. Felt as far as New Delhi.

14 February 2006 - Mana, North Sikkim, Mw 5.3 
27.377 N, 88.362 E, D=020.1 kms, OT=00:55:23 UTCA moderate earthquake struck the Sikkim Himalayas on 14 February 2006 at 06:25 AM local time resulting in two deaths and minor damage to property in the state of Sikkim, India. It had a magnitude of Mw=5.3. This is the strongest earthquake in this immediate region since a Mw=6.3 earthquake on 19 November 1980.

18 May 2007 - Nambu, North Sikkim, Mb 4.6 
27.302 N, 88.159 E, D=021.1 kms, OT=12:40:02 UTC
A light earthquake struck the Sikkim Himalayas on 18 May 2007 at 18:10 PM local time resulting in some panic in the state of Sikkim, India. It had a magnitude of Mb=4.6.

20 May 2007 - Singyang, North Sikkim, Mb 5.0 27.303 N, 88.191 E, D=021.1 kms, OT=14:18:18 UTC
A moderate earthquake struck the Sikkim Himalayas on 20 May 2007 at 19:48 PM local time resulting in some panic and minor damage in the state of Sikkim, India. It had a magnitude ofMb=5.0.
 

Magnetic Field remains unsettled due to CME impacts

Severe SolarWx
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster

Soon after the earths magnetic field was hit by CME,Kp index reached 7 and there was a G2 Geomagnetic Storming and Auroras were seen as far has Michigan,North Dakota in USA. As seen from datas from the ACE spacecraft,Earths magnetic field continues to face the CME impacts
The IMF has tripped back to North which will reduce intensity of Auroras as during the Northward Bz,solar wind is deflected by earths magnetic field.
It does appear that storming conditions shall persis till end of 11th Sept with periods of Active conditions. But a coronal hole high speed stream is enroute to earth which may cause minor storming on 12th Sept. The sunspot 1283 which is the most active sunspot of Solar Cycle 24 has now rotated away from earth facing side of sun

Stay tuned for updates

Akshay Deoras
www.akshaydeoras.blogspot.com
www.metdweather.blogspot.com
Via- Mobile Blogging

GEOMAGNETIC STORM G2 ONSETS

A GEOMAGNETIC STORM OF INTENSITY LEVEL 2 IS NOW IN PROGRESS WITH KP=6 AND IMF TRIPPED SOUTHWARDS

HIGH LATITUDE OBSERVERS SHALL WATCH FOR AURORAS TONIGHT 


DETAILS LATER

Partial CME heading towards Earth

SEVERE SOLARWX
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster

AR 1283 - THE MOST ACTIVE SUNSPOT ON THE EARTH FACING SIDE OF THE SUN


This was the second X class ( X1.8) SOLAR FLARE FROM SUNSPOT 1283 ON 2238 UT,7TH SEPT 2011. 
The event also caused a X ray Blackout of R3 intensity shortly as the X rays caused blackout on the sunlit side of the earth. 


This Solar Flare also released Coronal Mass Ejection which was recorded by STEREO A and can be seen here and also here


Magnetic Fields-
The Sunspot AR 1283 is having symmetric magnetic field lines and has produced two X class flares already
This is according to the paper published by SEVERE SOLARWX where sunspots having symmetric magnetic field lines are capable of producing high end M class to X class flares.




THUS SEVERE SOLARWX HAS 4 STRAIGHT EVIDENCES FOR THE PAPER


CME FORECAST
THE M 5.3 SOLAR FLARE OF 6TH SEPT 2011 HURLED CME TOWARDS THE EARTH WHEN WAS EXACTLY INFRONT OF THE SUNSPOT. THE X 2.1 SOLAR FLARE ALSO HURLED SOME CME BEING SQUARELY DIRECTED AND YESTERDAYS 1.8 JOINING THE GANG. 


IT DOES APPEAR THAT EARTH IS VERY 


ABOVE- 
THE THREE PEAKS ( ONE M CLASS AND TWO X CLASS FLARES) FROM AR 1283 MAKING IT THE MOST ACTIVE SUNSPOT 




LIKELY TO THE PARTIAL CME ON 10TH SEPT LATE NIGHT HOURS ( GMT) 
THE EFFECT SHALL BE MINIMAL WITH LIKELYHOOD OF G1 GEOMAGNETIC STORM AND IF THE IMF TRIPS SOUTHWARD DURING IMPACT, AURORAS SHALL DISPLAY AT HIGHER LATITUDES


STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES 


FOLLOW SEVERE SOLAR WX @ SSW FB

X 2.1 SOLAR FLARE FROM SUNSPOT 1283

SEVERE SOLARWX
AKSHAY DEORAS
SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTER

THE SUNSPOT AR 1283 HAS HURLED AN X 2.2 SOLAR FLARE AT 2220 UTC,6TH SEPT 2011 AFTER PRODUCING M CLASS FLARE YESTERDAY

THE SOLAR FLARE ALSO CARRIED CORONAL MASS EJECTION WITH IT AS BEING INDICATED BY THE DATAS FROM STEREO SPACECRAFT.

HOWEVER DETAILED ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT CME SHALL PASS AWAY FROM THE EARTH AS CME WAS DIRECTED AT AN ANGLE OF AROUND 110 DEGREE WHERE ANGLE OF EARTH WITH RESPECT TO SUN FOR STEREO A IS AROUND 180 DEGREE

THE EVENT PRODUCED A R3 BLACKOUT AND HAS SENT A STREAM OF CHARGED AND ACCELERATED PROTONS TOWARDS THE EARTH AND MIGHT  ONSET A S1 SOLAR RADIATION STORM

THE SOLAR FLARE CAN BE NOTED AS THE BRIGHT MARK NEAR THE CENTRAL SIDE OF THE SUN.

STAY TUNED FOR THE UPDATES

Sunspot 1271 has cross symmetric magnetic field!

SEVERE SOLARWX

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

Present sunspots on the Earthside of the sun- 

AR 1274,1275 ,1271,1272 

The earth side of the sun has four brief sunspots. The region of concern is the sunspot 1271. NOAA forecasters expect a 20% chance of M class flares from  AR 1271 

 

The Space Weather Lab is expecting tremendous 58% flare chance of X and M class

However as per the theory put forth by Severe SolarWX

Sunspot 1271 is having cross symmetric magnetic field and hence it doesn't seen to be capable of producing a high end M class or X class flares. Initial C class followed by isolated M low class flare shall be there but after a brief period of time ( 2 days later or so)

STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES!

Akshay Deoras
Severe Earth & Space Weather Forecaster,Astrophysics article writer.

Web-
www.akshaydeoras.blogspot.com
www.metdweather.blogspot.com

        www.scribd.com/akshaydeoras

Sick Test Problem: Math

Posted by Alutsyah Luthfian

Sorry I'm trashing here with math. Actually, it was a problem given during a university admission test. A Math problem, actually university semester II Calculus. Why I should say sick? It wasn't attested in Big-Three Indonesian university; Bandung Tech Institute, dubbed to be the best technological university in Indonesia didn't give the problem at its admission test (Bandung Tech always give some mind tricking problems, in which an excelled student can do it fast by finding the patterns), neither did my Gadjah Mada nor University of Indonesia.

This problem came from a university in Semarang: Diponegoro University.

The problem is like this:





Seems easy at a glance. But it is actually harder. We should integrate it from the inner part dx then we do the outer part dy.

1.The first thing we do is integrate the inner part,

which is equal to:

After that, we integrate the outer part,

becoming

This second part is the hardest part

2. Integrating the e^y2 is not as easy as I thought. After dealing with u=y² form, the equation goes ill by the form 2×√u which is adding up to infinity if we try to integrate it by multiple integral method (and I will talk about this later). It is known that the function f(y)= e^y2 is an even function, a function in which f(-y)=f(y). But the problem is, the function's value goes ∞ when x approaches ∞; so the simplest thing we can do when integrating e^y2 is integrate it by mean of series. A function f(x) could be approached approximately with an infinite series:

Nah, you can replace a with any real number. Usually, scholars use the number 0 for simplicity, and putting 0 as a will make the series called MacLaurin Series.
Now we replace the y in f(y)= e^y2 into x and the function becomes f(x)=e^x2. The infinite series for f(x) when a =0 becomes:

If you prefer to put another real number as a, then this equation could be used.

Getting that kind of equation, we could easily integrate the f(x)=e^x2 by integrating its series expansion.

But in this article i prefer not to do the exponential integration that way.

Why not? Because the xⁿ in the series expansion grows significantly smaller than the exponential function. I'm intending to give a more precise result using error function. I will do the error function with the touch of series expansion also; but if i do with the error function, the result will precise up to 10^-5 order.

ERROR FUNCTION

So what another silly thing you would suck on my head?
OK readers, take a break please. Yeah now I want to give you an important function, it is error function. Built on the basis of Gaussian integral, the error function was firstly used only at statistical data processing. Now this function is used also in advanced physics, thus this function is given as early as one or two year after Indonesians entering science faculties in university. I will only give you some basics of error function relating to the sick math problem above.

Go back to the exponent integral, we could further analyze the integral like below. Note that the e^y2 is replaced by e^x2.

Then,

This is it. The erfi(z) function is defined by:

And so, its MacLaurin series is

Erfi(z) or erfi(x) series when x=∞ is calculated by integrating the e^x2 dx endlessly.

The picture below give an image on how to do it.

so, the erfi(x) becomes:

That are two kinds of series expansion for erfi function. We should use the erfi MacLaurin series when calculating figures less than 1 or more than -1. The erfi series expansion at x=∞ is used when calculating figures more than 1 or less than -1. If the figure is 1, you can use either the infinite or MacLaurin series.

Then, we do the erfi(ln 2) - erfi(1) by means of series expansion. We do them by mean of erfi MacLaurin series, this yields -0.72270466, just differ 2 x 10^-8 with the result yielded by a math software.

Next, the final result is:

The term 0.02677468 can be rounded to be 0.0267747 which differs 8 x 10^-9 with computer's computation result.

X 6.9 Solar flare from AR 1263.. The biggest of So 24

SEVERE SOLARWX
AKSHAY DEORAS
SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTER

SEVERE SOLARWX CONDEMNS THE LATE POST ON SUCH A HISTORICAL EVENT.

THE SUNSPOT AR 1263 HAS HURLED THE BIGGEST SOLAR FLARE OF SOLAR CYCLE 24 - X 6.9 SOLAR FLARE AT 0805Z,AUGUST 9 2011.

SUNSPOT 1263 AS WAS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS FEW POSTS HAD SYMMETRICAL MAGNETIC FIELD AS AGAINST THAT OF AR 1261 WHICH DIDNT PRODUCE ANY X CLASS FLARE.
SEVRE SOLARWX HAS GATHERED SUFFICIENT PROOF NOW TO PRESENT A CONFIRMED REPORT ON THE SUNSPOTS WHICH PRODUCE MAXIMUM SOLAR FLARES

THE FLARE ALSO SENT TREMENDOUS X RAYS TOWARDS EARTH CAUSING AN R3 RADIO BLACKOUT THAT DISRUPTED SIGNALS IN HF AND VLF ZONES!

Level Consequences X Ray-Flux Frequency

R3

Strong

HF Radio: Wide area blackout of HF radio communication, loss of radio contact for about an hour on sunlit side of Earth. Navigation: Low-frequency navigation signals degraded for about an hour.

X1 (10-4)

175 per cycle (140 days per cycle)

Courtesy- NOAA/SWPC

THE FLARE HAS ALSO PRODUCED STRONG CORONAL MASS EJECTION BUT AS THE SUNSPOT WAS AWAY FROM GEO-EFFECTIVE SIDE OF THE EARTH, THE CME IS NOT EARTH DIRECTED.

DATAS FROM THE SPACE WEATHER LAB ALSO CONFIRM THIS FACT.

HOWEVER THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SOME SQUARED CME SHALL BE HEADING TOWARDS THE EARTH BUT SEVERE SOLARWX DOESN'T ENCOURAGE THIS NEWS NOW

.IF SUCH CME HAD BEEN EARTH DIRECTED THEN THERE WOULD HAVE BEEN ATLEAST A G4 GEOMAGENTIC STORM.. THE SUNSPOT MISSED IT BY JUST FEW DAYS!!!!

ALL THE THREE X CLASS FLARES IN THE SOLAR CYCLE - 24 HAS PROVED THAT THE THEORY PUT FORTH BY SEVERE SOLARWX IN CLASSIFYING THOSE SUNSPOTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG FLARES ( HIGH END M TO X CLASS) IS CORRECT

SO, SEVERE SOLARWX SHALL PUT FORTH A MODIFIED PAPER IN CONTINUATION TO THIS PAPER

Editors Note-

It has become necessary to inform the people about The Sun and its effects after CME,Flares.

In association to this, The Hitavada - Leading Newspaper of Central India offered an opportunity to me for publishing an article on the basics about the Sun.

The article as published in The Hitavada is posted above in the image form

- Akshay Deoras

Akshay Deoras
www.akshaydeoras.blogspot.com
www.metdweather.blogspot.com

Geomagnetic Storm decreasing but might increase again due to one shockwave of CME

The Massive G3 Geomagnetic Storm which had set in during late night hours of GMT of 5th August 2011 is still active but intensity has lowered down to G2. The Kp index which peaked at Kp=8 has now gone down to Kp=6 which is a Moderate Storm level.

As posted below image is prepared by the Space Weather Lab. The yellow circle is earth and you can see the massive zone ( Red,Pink White plume) was that CME which caused a G3 Geomagnetic Storm

As can be seen further, a second shockwave is trailing behind ( its a part of the first CME). As of 0600hrs GMT on 6th Aug 2011 the second shockwave shall hit the IMF again and likely increase in the intensity of storming

that is Kp can jump again to 7 and level 3 G3 Geomagnetic Storm can develop as the effects of first CME hit aren't subsidizing that quickly. IF so happens, then the earth again shall get Glancing glow from the Solar Wind and more auroras can be seen

At the same time, GPS users,Power Grid Operators shall remain cautious as there is likely malfunctioning during the Storming.

GPS users *** particularly must remain alert during local evening hours ( Dusk period)

STAY TUNED FOR MORE UPDATE

Akshay Deoras
Severe Earth & Space Weather Forecaster,Astrophysics article writer.

Web-
www.akshaydeoras.blogspot.com
www.metdweather.blogspot.com

www.scribd.com/akshaydeoras

MAJOR GEOMAGNETIC STORMING IN PROGRESS!

SEVERE SOLARWX
AKSHAY DEORAS
SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTER

AS WAS BEING EXPECTED

A MAJOR G3 GEOMAGNETIC STORM IS IN PROGRESS! THE SHOCKWAVE FROM CME HIT THE EARTH AT AROUND 1800HRS GMT ON 5TH AUG 2011

THE Bt index WAS AS HIGH AS 40nT AND THE KP SURGED TO 8 ( K=8) ON GOES SATELLITE AND AT BOULDER,CO KP=7 AND SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTRE CATEGORIZED AS G3 GEOMAGNETIC STORM

THE STORMING IS STILL IN PROGRESS AND S1 SOLAR RADIATION STORM

**** PEOPLE LIVING AROUND AND ABOVE 50 DEG LATITUDE SHALL GET TO SEE AURORAS***

PEOPLE LIVING IN NORTHERN NETHERLANDS,GERMANY,NEW HAMPSHIRE ( USA) ARE SEEING AURORAS!

AS PER SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION ( NOAA), THE POSSIBLE HAZARDS FROM G3 GEOMAGNETIC STORM

EFFECTS KP FREQUENCY

G3

Strong

Power systems: voltage corrections may be required, false alarms triggered on some protection devices. Spacecraft operations: surface charging may occur on satellite components, drag may increase on low-Earth-orbit satellites, and corrections may be needed for orientation problems. Other systems: intermittent satellite navigation and low-frequency radio navigation problems may occur, HF radio may be intermittent, and aurora has been seen as low as Illinois and Oregon (typically 50° geomagnetic lat.)**.

Kp = 7

200 per cycle (130 days per cycle)

GEOMAGNETIC SUDDEN IMPULSE-ARRIVAL OF CME ON THE EARTH

SEVERE SOLARWX
AKSHAY DEORAS
SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTER
NAGPUR,0045HRS 6TH AUG 11 IST

FLASH SNIPPET-
THE ACE DATA HAS CONFIRMED THAT A SHOCKWAVE OF CORONAL MASS EJECTION FROM THE SUN HAS HIT THE EARTHS MAGNETIC FIELD EXACTLY AT THE TIME PREDICTED BY SEVERE SOLAR WX USING THE SPACE WEATHER LAB PRODUCTS. AS SEEN FROM THE ATTACHED IMAGE,THE IMF (INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD RECEIVED A SHOCKWAVE MEASURING AROUND 40 Bt. ALSO THE IMF HAS TRIPPED SOUTH (SOUTHWARD Bz) WHICH SHALL ALLOW THE SOLAR WIND TO POUR IN EARTHS MAGNETOSPHERE AS THE SUN AND EARTHS MAGNETIC FIELDS ARE CANCELLED AT A POINT DURING SOUTHWARD Bz...

THE SOLAR WIND ALSO PICKED UP TO AROUND 565 KM/SEC AND AROUND 15 PROTONS/CM square.

THUS THE POSSIBILITY OF INCREASED SOLAR PROTON FLUX HAS ARISEN ( S1RADIATION STORM ALREADY IN PROGRESS SINCE EARLY MORNING OF 4TH AUG)
*** S2 LEVEL RADIATION POSSIBLE**

HIGH LATITUDE OBSERVERS SHALL WATCHOUT FOR AURORAS AND OVERALL PEOPLE DEALING WITH COMMUNICATION,POWER GRIDS,PIPELINES SHALL WATCH OUT!

www.akshaydeoras.blogspot.com
www.metdweather.blogspot.com

DAY OF GEOMAGNETIC STORM

SEVERE SOLARWX

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

The 2 CME which are enroute to Earth have merged into a single and powerful wave of disturbance that is likely to hit the Earth's Magnetic Field around 1800hrs GMT today i.e 5th Aug 2011. The CME shall be travelling at around 750km/sec during the impact.

NOAA forecasters expect this CME to cause a G2-G3 Geomagnetic Storming and S2 Radiation storm. THE SOLAR RADIATION STORM IS STILL IN PROGRESS SINCE 04TH AUGUST MORNING GMT WITH S1 INTENSITY AND SHALL BE ENHANCED WHEN ABUNDANT CHARGED PARTICLES REACH.

ACTIVE GEOMAGNETIC STORM,RADIATION STORM SHALL PERSISTS PERIODICALLY TILL 7TH AUG 2011

FRESH! SUNSPOT AR 1261 RELEASE M 9.3 SOLAR FLARE.THIRD MAJOR CORONAL MASS EJECTION RELEASED

SEVERE SOLARWX

AKSHAY DEORAS

SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTER

MARKING ITS RECORD,SUNSPOT 1261 HAS RELEASED ANOTHER HIGH END M CLASS FLARE MEASURED M 9.3 AT ABOUT 0357 UT

THIS ALSO PRODUCED A R2 LEVEL RADIO BLACKOUT!

JUST IN-

DATAS FROM STEREO A INDICATE A STRONG CORONAL MASS EJECTION DUE TO THIS FLARE WHICH HAS ALREADY STARTED ITS JOURNEY TOWARDS THE EARTH

THIS IS HISTORIC,

THREE DAYS,

FOUR CME

3 MAJOR EN-ROUTE THE EARTH!

**** SOLAR RADIATION STORM LIKELY*****

THE POWERFUL CME ALSO EMITED TONS OF CHARGED PROTONS TOWARDS THE EARTH WHICH ARE NOW LANDING ON THE EARTH AND LIKELY CAUSE A S1 RADIATION STORM!

***

STAY TUNED FOR ALERTS

MULTIPLE CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS HEADING TOWARDS EARTH

ABOVE- CME # 4 DUE TO 9.3M SOLAR FLARE ON 0357 UT,4TH AUG 2011

ABOVE- 3RD AUGUST 2011 CME DUE TO M6 FLARE

ABOVE- PARTIAL CME DUE TO M1 FLARE ON 3RD AUG

2ND AUGUST CME

SEVERE SOLARWX

AKSHAY DEORAS

SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTER

The Solar Activity has BOOSTED suddenly due to Sunspot 1261 which has hurled 4 Bright Coronal Mass Ejection all of which are heading towards the Earth.

Schedule of CME-

The first CME ( Ejected on 2nd August 2011) shall land on 5th Aug Early morning

The Second partial CME coupled with todays strong one ( M6 flare) shall arrive by 6th August noon period as per today's calculation

The third Major CME shall arrive during 7th August 2011

A prolonged period of ACTIVE Geomagnetic Storming is likely!

M 6 Solar Flare from Sunspot 1261 ! Caused a R2 Blackout

SEVERE SOLARWX

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

At 1348UT, Sunspot AR1261 has hurled another M class Flare ( M6) with tremendous Coronal Mass Ejection coupled by a wave of ionization shortly after the flare which caused a R2 Radio Blackout.

The datas from STEREO are arriving and indicating CME release associated with the M6 flare.

Above image- The X ray image showing the explosion... AND THE CORONAL MASS EJECTION

STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES!

NEXT POST- HOW MANY CME ARE ON TRACK?

Another M1 class flare from Sunspot AR 1261

SEVERE SOLARWX

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

Sunspot AR 1261 has gone for another M1 class flare today at around 0340 UT on 3rd August. The GOES X ray flux measured this flare as M1 and the datas from STEREO are indicating that this Flare has also released a partial Coronal Mass Ejection see here

Meanwhile the CME released yesterday is possibly travelling at around 900km/sec and shall land down during early morning hours ( GMT) on 5th August 2011 ( Which is the 1st Aniversary of SEVERE SOLARWX which was set up on 5th Aug 2010

This CME of 2nd Aug coupled by todays partial CME shall likely cause ACTIVE Geomagnetic storming on 5th August 2011 and likely trigger Auroras if IMF supports!

Coronal Mass Ejection confirmed from Sunspot 1261. Heading towards earth

SEVERE SOLARWX

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

In continuation to the earlier post of M class Flare from AR 1261......

The Sunspot AR1261 produced a M1 class flare at 0619UT,2nd Aug 2011

The datas from STEREO A and B confirmed that the flare also released a strong Coronal Mass Ejection

See Stereo A view here

Stereo B view here

The CME consists of charged particles ( especially charged ions,electrons,protons - part of the strongly heated plasma) that mostly takes 2-3 days to reach the earth.

Based on this,

THE CME CAN BE EXPECTED TO HIT EARTH'S MAGNETIC FIELD ON 4TH AUGUST LATE PERIOD TO 5TH AUGUST AND IF IT RETAINS ITS INTENSITY THEN ACTIVE GEOMAGNETIC STORMING SHALL TAKE PLACE.

POLAR AURORAS ALSO SHALL HAPPEN IF EARTH'S MAGNETIC FIELD TRIPS SOUTH DURING THE CONTACT OF INTENSIFIED SOLAR WIND ( CME ) AND MAGNETIC FIELD.

Sunspot 1263 update-

The Sunspot 1263 now posses symmetrical magnetic field which shall now provide threat for strong flares. This sunspot shall start producing big flares very soon.

Sunspot 1261 has now slightly less threat for Strong Flares.

Forecast-

An Isolated M class flare likely from AR 1261. Less chance for X class flare

Chance of initial C class flares then for some M class flares

Another M class Solar Flare is in progress from Sunspot 1261

SEVERE SOLARWX

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

As predicted looking at the Magnetic Field lines of Sunspot AR 1261, The sunspot is now undergoing a 2nd M class flare ( The Flare intensity not known as it is in progress)

The Solar Flare also has sent wave of ionization causing a Radio Blackout R1 now on the Earth

Discussion-

AS PER THE PAPER of SEVERE SOLARWX see here,

Sunspot AR 1261 has simple symmetrical magnetic field ( AS indicated by the MDI Magnetogram and magnetic fields- picture above). As was discussed in the paper sunspots having symmetrical magnetic fields produce stronger flares ( M class + ) as the arrangement of magnetic fields ( symmetrical) enables the maximum intensity explosion ( flare) as against the complex magnetic fields ( Where possibly the net effect of magnetic field is reduced due to cancellation by the other unsymmetrical magnetic field lines in the same sunspot region.

The neighboring sunspot AR 1260 ( Upper Right of 1261 on sun's NW limb) has more magnetic flux but has complex fields)

Another sunspot AR 1263 is maturing and might be the next one to release a strong flare after few days ( Its located Upper Left of AR 1261 or in the NE limb of Sun)

Forecast-

AS PER PAPER OF SEVERE SOLARWX

Sunspot 1261 IS THE MAIN CONCERN for the next few days for producing Isolated M mid to high class flares and a possible X class flare during its presence. Any such flare shall be earth directed as the Sun's region having AR 1261 is on the Geo-effective ( Earth Facing side)

Sunspot AR 1260 has less threat for strong flares

Sunspot AR 1263 shall join the race for strong flares after some days

MONTHLY SUNSPOT NUMBER AS OF JULY 2011

The monthly sunspot avg no of July 2011 as JUMPED up to 43.9 ( 52.1 was the expected value as per IPS Solar Data) from 37.0 of June 2011….

This was predicted by SEVERE SOLARWX for a monthly sunspot no. July 2011 to be between 40-45

The Sunspot no on 31st July is 130.

STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES!

M 9.3 Solar Flare from the Sun with onset of R2 Radiation storm

SEVERE SOLARWX

A.Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

The Sunspot AR 1261 has released a M9.3 Solar Flare during 0209UT,30th July 2011 with a begin period at 0204UTC and ending at 0212UTC....

In a surprising attack the Sunspot 1261 didn't look that strong for releasing such a big flare but it has happened!

The Solar Flare with its X ray release causes a temporary and sometimes long lasting blackouts ( Disturbances in Earth's Ionosphere) which onsets a Radio Blackout

This M 9.3 flare also had set a R2 level blackout which mostly causes loss of communication with satellites at High Frequency on the Sunlit side of the earth for around 10s minutes.

We are monitoring the datas from STEREO spacecraft to see whether there is any CME in track towards the Earth as solar flares of such higher intensity mostly causes Coronal Mass Ejections!

STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES!