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Sunday, October 24, 2010

Active Geomagnetic Storm expected

SEVERE SOLARWX
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster

Due to a recurrent geomagnetic hole high speed stream, Kp index had reached 5 on Saturday,23rd Oct 2010 and continued to be unsettled for most of the time. Situated now in a more geo-effective position, and the recent Coronal Mass ejection
Minor conditions of " Geomagnetic storm" possible around the polar regions with nice Auroras!

Stay tuned for alert

Monday, October 18, 2010

Classic M3 class flare from sunspot 1112 on 16th Oct 2010

Look at the giant filament
Courtesy- AstroEduca.com

SEVERE SOLARWX
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster

(Post has been delayed since I had no time for writing this post on 17th Oct 2010)

Late night hours on 16th Oct 2010,sunspot 1112 hurled many solar flares including a Class M3 flare which was 400,000km long! which happened for the first time since SEVERE SOLARWX started forecastings in Aug 2010

The GOES X-ray flux indicated massive flare at about 1800hrs,GMT on 16th Oct which followed the C class flare emissions.Satellite environment plot started fluctuations after this the Kp index reached 4.

Space Weather Forecast-
The Geomagnetic activity is likely to start again as a Coronal Hole is rotating towards the earth and will become Geo-effective on 18th Oct 2010 late period
Low class flares possible from sunspot 1113,1115 as MDI magnetogram showing opposite charge fields (polarity) around the sunspot
A high speed stream flowing from this coronal hole and another which is near might reach the earth on Oct 19-20 and also some effects from past CME ejection on 14th Oct 2010

Saturday, October 16, 2010

Varying Electric field intensity and electric field shape

THIS ARTICLE WILL BE MODIFIED ACCORDINGLY

AT PRESENT ITS INCORRECT

AKSHAY DEORAS

Glossary-

*1] Electric charged particle- A particle having an electric charge ( Can be Negative charge or a positive charge)
*2] Acceleration- Rate of change of velocity over a period of time. In one dimension it is rate of changes in speed of a body.
*3] Accelerating electric charged particle- A particle having an electric charge (greater than 0C) which is in acceleration due to action of a certain force
*4] Point charge- A point having a charge. For consideration, the point is taken as a sphere having a well defined diameter
* Point otherwise its a dimension less quantity
*5] Test charge- A ideal charge having magnitude,m (m~ 0)
*6] Electric field- A well defined area around a charge where there is influence of charge
or area around a point charge where force from point charge are active
In this case, area around an electric charge is called electric field
*7] Electric field shape- Shape of the electric field
(FOR THIS ARTICLE, THE SHAPE IS CONSIDERED ON A 2-DIMENSION)
*8] Electric Field Intensity (Electric intensity)-
Is the force experienced by a test charge having certain magnitude ( greater than 0) which is kept in electric field of a point charge
α- direct proportionality symbol

1] VARYING ELECTRIC FIELD INTENSITY FOR A POINT AND TEST CHARGE AT DIFFERENT STATES
Basic-
We consider a point charge P kept in vacuum at rest with a test charge Q at rest
Point charge having magnitude equal to 20C.(Coulomb). Electric field intensity = F/q
i.e
Vector E= Vector F/q
where E and F vector and vectors of electric field and force respectively and q is the charge of P
considering magnitudes-
E=F/q ....................... (1)

F= Ma .........................(2)
where M is mass and a is acceleration of point charge whose force will be experienced by test charge kept in electric field

Putting value of eq.(2) in (1)

E= Ma/q ......................(3)

So Electric field intensity of a test charge at rest in vacuum is given by eq.(3) where
E α Ma
Eα 1/q

Condition-
Now we accelerate the point charge P by providing a Force()
having magnitude equal to 10N and direction along unit vector
()
Let the mass of point charge be 1g and determined acceleration be 10m/s^

Putting values in .. eq(3) and considering vector
= 1*10/20 ()

= 1/2 N/C ()
= 0.5N/C ()..............(4)

IN FIRST CASE WHERE THE POINT CHARGE WAS IN REST we get following result from .... eq(3)

E= Ma/q ......................(3)
Where M=1g
a= 0m/s^
q=20C

= 1*0/20 ()
where () is unit vector along Force vector and accordingly for
=0 () ...................(5)
=0

On comparison of eq (4) and (5) we determine that there is a varying electric field intensity for a stationary point charge and test charge and a accelerating point charge and stationary test charge.
*When the point charge is in a state of motion(increasing magnitude) then electric field intensity on stationary test charge increases in other words as distance between them decreases.
* When point charge is stationary and test charge also then there is no net electric field intensity on a test charge

(II} VARYING ELECTRIC FIELD SHAPE.
TO BE COMPLETED!





Monday, October 11, 2010

Geomagnetic Storm G1 onset on earth!



IMAGE-
FIRST ONE IS THE SATELLITE ENVIRONMENT PLOT FROM NOAA . SEE THE KP OF 5!
SECOND IMAGE IS THE ARCHIVE 9TH OCT 2010 IMAGE FROM SUN. NOTICE THE TINY BLACK SPOTS OR CORONAL HOLES IN SUN'S NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. A HIGH SPEED STREAM FROM THERE HAS HIT THE EARTH TODAY

SEVERE SOLARWX
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster

A coupled effect from a small coronal high speed stream and recent Interplanetary magnetic field trip on Oct 5 2010 has set a G1 Geomagnetic storm on the earth as per NOAA
NOAA forecasters were pretty confident since last few days regarding the Isolated active period on 11th Oct and some time on 12th Oct 2010

At present,
The Kp index is 5 at present with solar wind nearing to 370km/sec
There is a massive fluctuation in electron flux

HIGH LATITUDE OBSERVERS EVEN TO SOME MID LATITUDE OBSERVERS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR AURORAS ON 11TH AND 12TH OCT AT NIGHT PERIOD

THINGS ARE NOW CALMING DOWN WITH NOAA FORECAST SHOWING NO STORM ONSET IN RECENT.

Wednesday, September 29, 2010

The programming of the universe

Certain ideas require no explanation !

A computer works fully as per the programming done. Right from the basic calculations of additions and other algebraic calculations to the computer games. Algebraic additions,subtractions and multiplication with division is all done by using the Binary number system of (0,1) and the Boolean Algebra. The programming is done in such a way that its simple to the users and to the processing units. Thats more a Computer language

The theory of very small tells us that at every second or micro micro,nano seconds there is some activity going on in the dark regions of the universe. A pair of Particle-Antiparticle creates and destroys each other after an interval. We don't see it by our eyes or by means of Observational astronomy.
The formation,evolution,death of Universe and multiple cycles of formation-destruction are very mysterious things.

Has there been "Programming of The Universe"
The answer possibly is - Yes

We all have a defined Genetic code which we get from our parents. This Genetic code is transferred to us during our (Birth in the womb,evolution in the womb). For all our lives we carry the same Genetic code which also describes many properties that can be identical to either or both of our parents.

Considering the Big Bang theory which is considered to be the very correct theory,
The universe started in a tiny point where there was no light,energy at the earlier stage
At the later stage as this tiny point expanded the explosion happened and Time was created matter was released. Over the time as the matter cooled down, force of Gravity became dominant and began the process of compression of a matter and over the period this created the stars.
The basic concept right from the Singularity to Big Bang lies similar to a evolution of a baby in the womb. During both this events, certain developments happen which initiate due to the programming
If Universe began from a Big Bang, then we must admit that there has been certain programming during the Singularity-Inflation stage

What type of Programming-
From Singularity where everything was concentrated in zero volumed region to the inflation stage of newly born universe there exist few common features.
The prominent among it is the creation-
My argument is that Why the Big bang happened?
If Singularity was the initial stage of the universe then why did an explosion(cosmic inflation) happened which released all the matter. Why Singularity was not the permanent stage.?
If Singularity would have been the permanent stage of the Universe then there would not had been any evolutions or series of evolutions which led to the formation of everything
This means the nature of the matter in the singularity and expansion stage was well defined and can be called as Programming.
On Earth, similar chronology is observed... Anything emerges out from a point, grows and then becomes vast. Nothing starts from vast or continue to remain a point.

2] The separation of four fundamental forces.
At the early stage all these fundamental forces were united by they got separated all of sudden.

Similar to this, there are many other events which can be put in terms of a chronology and all the events have a well defined inreversible order

This is the programming of universe which created everything.

Wednesday, September 22, 2010

Possible Kp of 4 expected!

Sunspot 1109 at left,1108 at center and 1106 at right


SEVERE SOLARWX
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster-

A gigantic coronal hole at the northern hemisphere of the earth facing side of the sun is very likely sending High speed Coronal stream towards the earth. The coronal hole high speed stream emitted towards the earth causes disturbances in the magnetic field of the earth and onsetting a Geomagnetic storm

This time, chances are good for a Kp index of 4 which will trigger beautiful auroras in the high latitude regions. People must keep checking NOAA forecasts which are in a favor of 35% ACTIVE conditions in both high and mid latitude regions till next 48hrs. Associated with this is the fluctuating Electron flux

Sunspots-
Currently three sunspots are nearly active!
The giant sunspot 1108 is at the southern side of the Sun and quite away from earth direction
1108 also has been emitting many solar flares with some CME recently

The big show can be of the rotating sunspot 1109 which already triggered some CME on 22nd Sept 2010 as seen from Coronagraphs. 1109 can trigger some more C class flares in coming 24hrs . NOAA forecasters call for 10% chance of M class flares


Sunday, September 19, 2010

Jupiter to appear Bright as earth passes between sun and Jupiter

(Jupiter as on 20th Sept 2010 midnight)

All sky gazers and amateur astronomers must turn their attention towards Jupiter on 20th Sept 2010 as Jupiter will be 591 495 532 kilometers or 368 million miles from the earth after 1963!
Astronomical phenomena known as opposition when any planet passe
s in between the observer and the sun will take place on 21st Sept 2010 when earth will pass between Jupiter and the sun
Since Jupiter's orbit is not as perfectly symmetrical than earth, during opposition it will near towards the earth due to its orbit

Jupiter is currently rising just few minutes after the sunset since we are approaching the Opposition phase.
So Jupiter is easily spotted as an object having magnitude of -2.9 in Eastern Sky
On 20th Sept 2010 i.e Sunday, Jupiter will rise just near South Easter
n side of East side in the sky after sunset
towards late night it will be towards SE and near to the moon so it will
be easy to spot

Earth passes in between Jupiter and sun every 13 months as Earth completes a rotation in 12 months and Jupiter in 12 years

Jupiter will be seen good by Telescope and ordinary binoculars
Opposition will be on 21st,tuesday so Jupiter will be very bright and clear these days

Right- (Jupiter and moon on 20th Sept 2010 midnight)

DONT MISS IT

Wednesday, September 15, 2010

Geomagnetic index of 4 reached


SEVERE SOLARWX
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster

Geomagnetic index of 4 has been reached late night Wednesday.
Some Auroras were triggered in high latitude areas.

NOAA forecasters are expecting Isolated active period (geomagnetic disturbance) tomorrow i.e 16th Sept 2010... I definitely don't understand the reason they are giving i.e CME of 11th Sept 2010..
According to me, the CME already impacted earth with Kp of 4.. However some late coming CME on the same day can influence the earth's magnetic field tomorrow.
I am not in a favour of Active period on 16th Sept 2010

A Big Coronal Hole is rotating towards the earth. A recent coronal high speed might reach earth in next 3-4 days. So that time I can expect a proton flux happening
Sunspot 1106 hurls another solar flare and some CME



RIGHT-
THE DARK BLACK PATCH ON THE SUN WILL BE ROTATING TOWARDS EARTH IN COMING TIME. A CORONAL HIGH SPEED STREAM MIGHT BE HITING THE EARTH FROM IT
BELOW IT I.E FILAMENTS AROUND SUNSPOT 1106

Tuesday, September 14, 2010

Akshay's Gyaan sets up "SEVERE SOLARWX" section on the blog


Finally, an official confirmation of establishing a well defined Space Weather Forecasting agency.
I already had made more than a dozen of Space Weather Forecasts since August 2010.
But there was no specific name given to the organization as we have the Global Earth Weather forecasting agency-METD WEATHER.

METD WEATHER was established on June 1,2009. Its parent blog is Akshay's Gyaan

On the same basis, we have setup a section on blog (though not a different blog as managing 3 blogs will become difficult). The name of the Akshay's Gyaan Space Weather Forecasting agency is -
"SEVERE SOLARWX" WX means weather in meteorological aspects. Severe Solar WX means Severe Solar Weather.

All the posts relating to space weather will be done on Akshay's Gyaan blog
The Severe Solar forecaster will be Akshay Deoras

Electron Flux from GOES show upcoming CME!


The 5 min data from GOES Electron flux unit is indicating a fluctuation in the graph and it means that the geomagnetic field of the earth is slowly becoming unstable. The Kp index from GOES also has surged to 3 from 1 mark on 14th Sept 2010 early hours (GMT).
A Coronal Mass Ejection had happened on Sun on Sept 10 2010 which was not directly aimed towards the earth but the outer expanding clouds had a possibility of generating a Kp index of 4 .

The datas from STEREO spacecraft aren't showing any approaching CME in significant level towards earth and no cloud expanding on Stereo Ahead HI 2 plot

It looks like some charged particles associated with that CME are now striking the earth. I don't expect a Geomagnetic storm generation. But High altitude observers much watch for Auroras during late night hours of 14th and 15th Sept 2010

Active 1106!
The sunspot 1106 which previously was named as 1100 which is now rotating towards the earth is already active and
again has erupted a Class B1 flare and seen from Coronagraphs, CME.
Since the sunspot is away from the ea
rth, that Coronal Mass ejection is not expected to hit the earth but if another eruptions happen when 1106 faces the earth, then it can trigger a direct hit of CME towards the earth and causing a geomagnetic storm in coming days

RIGHT- GIANT CME ON THE LOWER LEFT SIDE OF THE SUN FROM SUNSPOT 1106

Thursday, September 9, 2010

Sunspot 1105 emits a C3 class flare and CME!

Magnetic reconnection happened again at sunspot no. 1105 as a result of which that sunspot hurled a Massive C3 class solar flare on 2330UT,Sept.8. Captured images from SDO and SOHO clearly show Coronal Mass Ejection had happened on the sun but the CME currently is heading towards a direction where no planets are situated currently so It w'd miss everything.

Currently the solar activity will go down since no new sunspot has developed on the SDO facing side of the sun. 
Also the geomagnetic activity is expected to remain down after early unsettled levels of Electron Flux

Attachments-
1] Solar Flare strip as captured by Solar Dynamics Observatory aka SDO
2] Latest Coronagraph from the sun showing massive CME on the upper right part of the image
3] X ray flux showing a C3 flare emission

Saturday, September 4, 2010

Magnitude 7.0 Earthquake of Christchurch, New Zealand


Location43.530°S, 172.120°E
Depth5 km (3.1 miles) set by location program
RegionSOUTH ISLAND OF NEW ZEALAND
Distances45 km (30 miles) W of Christchurch, New Zealand
200 km (125 miles) SSE of Westport, New Zealand
290 km (180 miles) NNE of Dunedin, New Zealand
330 km (205 miles) SW of WELLINGTON, New Zealand
TimeSaturday, Sep 04, 2010, 04.36.46 AM Local time (UTC+12)
ParametersNST (Number of station reporting Primary and Secondary wave for this earthquake)


374
Nph (Number of Primary and Secondary wave observation used to compute hypocenter location)


374
Dmin (Horizontal distance from from the epicenter to the nearest station)


88.7 km
Rmss (the difference between predicted arrival time and observed arrival time of the earthquake)


0 sec
Gp (The largest azimuthal gap between azimuthally adjacent stations)


18°
M-type=centroid moment magnitude (Mw), Version=9

Source



  • Institute of Geological and Nuclear Sciences, Lower Hutt, New Zealand


Christchurch lies on the layer of Quarternary age fan of gravel deposit. This layer is created when ice age glaciers carving their path along South Island folded mountain and laid their stone loadings onshore. Gravel is considered loose enough so it is not decelerate the seismic wave much. According to USGS' shakeMap, acceleration of seismic wave in Christchurch is 40 % of gravitational acceleration in 0.3 s period wave map. If the acceleration of seismic wave is juxtaposed with Mercalli Modified Intensity scale, the city of Christchurch would have experiencing a horrifying VIII MMI doomsday shake.

SEISMOGRAM DISPLAY OF MC QUEEN VALLEY STATION
note a streak near 12.00 point





Nah, 16 minutes after the primary earthquake, a weaker 5.1 M quake shook Christchurch. Another weaker earthquakes could be seen on seismogram notes before.

Magnitude 7.0 Earthquake strikes South Island of New Zealand !


ABOVE- AN EXTENSIVE DAMAGE REPORTED IN CHRISTCHURCH DUE TO THAT EARTHQUAKE MEASURED 7.0 BY USGC

TOP IMAGE- THE USGC SHAKEMAP FOR CHRISTCHURCH AREA,NEW ZEALAND


Its almost a fresh update and a breaking news that I am bringing in less than 1.30hrs from the actual happening
A strong Earthquake measuring 7.0 and at a depth of 12km struck 55Km WNW of Christchurch city in New Zealand! This happened at 16:35:46UT(3rd Sept 2010) or 04:35:46LT(4th Sept 2010) in New Zealand . Aftershocks followed this earthquake. No local Tsunami has been generated since the depth of earthquake is not strong and is more towards the upper part.

Its feared that a lot of damage has been caused in Christchurch area and we hope that no lives are lost in this incident!

Since I am not very versed in seismology, my colleague Aluth Fian who is better known for his volcano writeups will make an update on technical aspects of this earthquake on Saturday with the related photos and details

Saturday, August 28, 2010

Sinabung Volcano First Historical Eruption

Alutsyah Luthfian Create your badge


Mount Sinabung is a 2 460 meters high Pleistocene-to-Holocene stratovolcano located in Tanah Karo Regency, North Sumatra Province of Indonesia. The migration of summit vents along N-S trending line has given an elongated form of its summit. The youngest crater of this conical andecitic to dacitic stratovolcano is at southern end of four overlapping craters. Solfataric activity WAS seen on its summit and upper flanks of Sinabung in 1912. there is no historical record of Sinabung eruption before today, as volcanological data from Indonesian Volcanism Bureau had been classified this volcano in Type B volcano, meaning that this volcano is never erupted before 1600 AD and features volcanic activity. Because it was included as a Type B volcano, (until today) there is no volcanism observatory at this mountain. All volcanic activity is observed from Medan. Now this volcano is classified into Type A, meaning that there is a known historical eruption of the volcano after 1600 AD.
Surono, the chairman of Geologic Hazard Mitigation and Volcanism Center was swear, "if Sinabung Volcano is gonna erupt, i have to put my position as a chairman". Now, the Sinabung volcano is erupt and i beg your swear! :-)

Aids has came to the disaster-affected region. The aids are mostly came in form of maskings, 75 government officers, foods, and other kind of logistics. I predicted that the ash from Sinabung will interfere some flight schedules from International Airport of Polonia 3 days from now, the cause is the ash will be directed North East. (based on GFS model).

SATURDAY, AUGUST 28, 2010
05.04 AM GMT (12.04 PM local time)
Sinabung volcano's activity is increasing, signed by the release of hot gases and water vapor. Lahars and ash rain is also reported by people living on Sinabung's flank. Villagers also heared thundering sound from the volcano. Some 26 000 villagers has fled to nearby city centers: Kabanjahe and Brastagi, also Medan and Pematang Siantar. They are evacuated to church and mosques and other social facilities. They don't want to go home before the official stated that the condition is secure.

5 years ago the Sinabung volcano was rumbling and roaring then followed with avalanche. However, it was not categorized as volcanic eruption.

05.15 PM GMT (Sunday, August 29, 2010--00.15 AM local time)
2 460 m Sinabung volcano started releasing molten lava. the lava fountain is visible from afar, spewing lava into the night sky and flow some into the flank. Hot ash with white to yellow color is spread into areas located tens kilometers. But in the morning, the lava fountain is not visible due to foggy weather.

03.00 AM GMT, Sunday, August 29, 2010
Refugees do riot at Regent's house asking for foods. They had been waiting for 8 hours in refuge camp. After the riot finished, the foods then came.

07.36 AM GMT, Sunday, August 29, 2010
One dies due to respiratory problem caused by Sinabung's ash.

10.37 AM GMT, Sunday, August 29, 2010
Geologists has sent to eruption site for determining whether the erupted material is containing Silicon. if the erupted material is containing silicon then the eruption is explosive and will last for months. That kind of long eruption was happened to Galungggung Volcano in West Java Province of Indonesia. The Galunggung volcano was slept since before 1600, then it awakes at 1983, caused 10 moths long explosive eruption.

10.00 PM GMT, Sunday, August 29, 2010
A 5-minute quake rattled villages near Mount Sinabung.

Early Morning of Friday, Sep 3, 2010 Local Time: Sinabung erupted for the second time.


COMPILED VIDEO OF SINABUNG ERUPTION
From August 29 - 30, 2010



I take attention of this volcano due to its reactivation after a very long quiescense

Sources:
thejakartapost.com (English)
ANTARA (English)
metrotvnews.com (Indonesian Language)
kompas.com (Indonesian Language)
volcano.si.edu (Smithsonian Volcanism Site)

Tuesday, August 24, 2010

The High speed Solar Wind stream from the coronal hole now striking the earth


I had almost forgotten the date- 24th August 2010 as I am currently engrossed in preparing a synopsis relating to a product innovated by me and titled briefly as "BEST FROM WASTE SOUND"

As was mentioned in the earlier post, A large or I w'd call wedge Coronal hole which was rotating towards the earth was expected to face the earth side of the sun by 24th August 2010
A coronal hole has an area of open magnetic fields which actually help in the intensification of the solar winds. The planetary k index or kp plot showed unsettled levels during the late night of August 23! The KP was 2 just before the midnight when it plunged to 4 and indicating unsettled level

There was a massive fluctuation in the Electron flux just after a massive stream of Solar wind hit the earth causing disturbances in the geomagnetic field of the earth!
Since this coronal hole is now facing the earth, I w'd expect more disturbances in the next 48hrs

This one is triggering Auroras in high latitude regions! People should remain alert for auroras in the high latitude areas on the next 2 days.

Friday, August 20, 2010

A coronal hole on sun will now face the earth

With no active sunspots currently facing the earth on sun, the coronal mass ejections and solar flares will remain quiet resulting in mostly stable earths magnetic field. a large coronal hole as shown in this x ray image of the sun will now be facing the earth resulting in release of tremendous solar wind which contains charged particles and plasma from the sun,s atmosphere. Since this will be facing the earth, there will be increase in the solar wind and can cause a glancing blow to earth magnetic field and people living in high latitude region will get to see active auroras in the sky due to this phenomena. The coronal holes contain open magnetic field which enables to intensify the present solar wind. I estimate it to reach before 24th aug. So auroras from 22nd only
Akshay Deoras
www.akshaydeoras.blogspot.com
www.metdweather.blogspot.com

Wednesday, August 18, 2010

S1 SOLAR RADIATION STORM EXPECTED ON THE EARTH

IN THE ABOVE PLOT OF THE PROTON FLUX THE 10MeV FLUX OR RED LINE HAS CROSSED THE 10pfu line. IT MEANS THE ONSET OF A SOLAR RADIATION STORM

NOAA HAS CONFIRMED A TYPE TWO RADIO EMISSION FROM THE SUN AT 0551UT AND ESTIMATED VELOCITY OF 545KM/SEC
THEN AT 0900UT, THE SDO PLOT HAS INDICATED THAT THE 10MeV PROTON FLUX will likely rise about 10 pfu

NOAA has issued an alert where it has mentioned a ONSET CONDITION for the S1 PREDICTED
SOLAR RADIATION STORM

Massive Cloud of Coronal Mass Ejection ejected from Sun on Wednesday. Might be heading towards the earth





IMAGES-
THE FIRST IMAGE IS OF THE LASCO C2. IT IS A CORONAGRAPH OF THE SUN TAKEN AT 0636. THE BRIGHT CORONAL MASS EJECTION CAN BE EASILY SEEN ON THE RIGHT PART OF THE SUN

2ND IMAGE IS A 6MIN EARLY IMAGE THAN THE FIRST ONE AND A LONG RANGE CORONAGRAPH
THE BRIGHT EXPLOSION IS THE CME!!

THIRD IMAGE -
THE 0658UT IMAGE OF SUN IN THE FE XVIII 94 ANGSTROM REGION OF SUN
YOU CAN SEE THE EXPLOSION ON THE UPPER RIGHT PART OF THE SUN

FOURTH IMAGE IS OF THE MAGNETOGRAM FROM SOHO
IT SHOWS OPP. POLES IN THE SUNSPOT 1098


Massive Cornonal Mass Ejection also designated as CME is now exploding from the sun associated with a CLass C4 flare!

At about 0600UT, The SDO X ray flux recorded a Class C4 solar flare ejected from the sun and then immediately datas from the coronagraph of SOHO confirmed that Sun is hurling MASSIVE CME which triggered after the solar flare! The SOHO MDI Magnetogram has been indicating that the opposite poles are present in the Sunspot 1098. So the magnetic fields around 1098 became repulsive(weak) and ejected a solar flare.
Soon after the flare, Coronal Mass Ejection was ejected.
I don't find any coming Solar Radiation storm as after the ejection at this time, the proton flux plot remained quiet unlike the previous time when a C4 caused a solar radiation storm on 14th August 2010. But some later plots can possibly indicate a minor storm
I have less information on the present side of earth as viewed from the sun but strongly believe that this CME is ejected towards the earth and mostly some part of it can likely give a glancing blew to earth's magnetic field by 21st August 2010

meanwhile, the previous estimates didn't materialize and the disturbance in the geomagnetic field of the earth remained less.

Monday, August 16, 2010

Sun emits many CME and Solar flares



I wanted to write this text yesterday only but was unable to do as I was partially ill

On Sunday, August 15, the sun emitted many solar flares along with notable Coronal mass ejection. AS being seen from the X ray flux, two B5 class solar flares were erupted near 0600UT,12UT then a B4 flare was emitted near 1500UT and the bigger!! a class C4 near 1800UT...

Many Coronal Mass ejections hurled from the sun during the entire day as a result of very weak magnetic fields around the sun and repulsive tendency. Three significant Coronal Mass Ejections were seen by the Solar Dynamic Observatory's coronagraphs.
None of this clouds are actually heading towards the earth but the CME from sunspot 1093 and 1099 could give a glancing blow to the earth as some plasma is heading towards the earth
It was the result of the end of complex eruptions which had taken place on 1093 and 1099. The CLass C4 flare is associated with it.

The geomagnetic field will have unsettled levels in the coming days due to many events.
The current increase in the activity is due a coronalhole high speed stream. Then the expected events on 17th and 18th (Unsettled KP levels and Auroras in high latitude areas) will be due to the Class C4 flare which had happened on August 14. Similarly some addition to this unsettled levels will be due to a part of the Coronal Mass Ejection associated with the Class C4 flare from 1093 and 1099 on August 15

So in all,
It will be bountiful week for high latitude areas as they will likely see good auroras everyday till August 19 (If no new CME takes place)

Solar Forecast
As I was thinking earlier regarding the formation of some new sunspots on the Solar Dynamic Observatory facing side of the sun, some new sunspots are mostly generating.
Two new sunspots are expected to form!
The Magnetogram of SOHO is showing some weak(repulsive natured) aka opposite polarity fields magnetic fields around 1093 and 1099 and also around the newly developing sunspots..
But the sunspot 1093 and 1099 will now be facing away from the the SDO side. Also the emerging sunspots have some opp polarity fields around them so some low class flares like B class is possible and less chance of C flare as its widespread unsettlement of fields and not around sunspots

NOAA forecasters are giving a 35% chance of ACTIVE GEOMAGNETIC STORM in next 24-48hrs in high latitude. So lets wait and see how the situation unfurls!

IMAGES-
THE X RAY FLUX PLOT FROM NOAA
AND SINCE I WAS UNABLE TO SEE THIS SITUATION YESTERDAY I HAVE USED SOME IMAGES OF THE CORONAGRAPH FROM SPACEWEATHER.COM

Sunday, August 15, 2010

Sun is emitting solar flares and coronal mass ejection

The magnetic field of sun has become very unstable at some areas as being depicted by the magnetogram from solar dynamic observatory. The sun emitted a class C4 flare and on august 15 emitting many class B Flares. meanwhile from the C4 flare, the first solar radiation storm hit the earth. This was a minor one and hardly did anything other than affecting the magnetic field of the earth.
This was the first solar radiation storm in this solar cycle. Meanwhile, data from graphs of sdo indicate approaching coronal mass ejection will likely influence the earth on aug 17. Also, many coronal mass ejection has been happening on sunday


STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES AT

http://www.facebook.com/pages/Severe-Solar-Weather-forecast/112556765473804