Jupiter to appear Bright as earth passes between sun and Jupiter

(Jupiter as on 20th Sept 2010 midnight)

All sky gazers and amateur astronomers must turn their attention towards Jupiter on 20th Sept 2010 as Jupiter will be 591 495 532 kilometers or 368 million miles from the earth after 1963!

Astronomical phenomena known as opposition when any planet passe

s in between the observer and the sun will take place on 21st Sept 2010 when earth will pass between Jupiter and the sun

Since Jupiter's orbit is not as perfectly symmetrical than earth, during opposition it will near towards the earth due to its orbit

Jupiter is currently rising just few minutes after the sunset since we are approaching the Opposition phase.

So Jupiter is easily spotted as an object having magnitude of -2.9 in Eastern Sky

On 20th Sept 2010 i.e Sunday, Jupiter will rise just near South Easter

n side of East side in the sky after sunset

towards late night it will be towards SE and near to the moon so it will

be easy to spot

Earth passes in between Jupiter and sun every 13 months as Earth completes a rotation in 12 months and Jupiter in 12 years

Jupiter will be seen good by Telescope and ordinary binoculars

Opposition will be on 21st,tuesday so Jupiter will be very bright and clear these days

Right- (Jupiter and moon on 20th Sept 2010 midnight)

DONT MISS IT

Geomagnetic index of 4 reached

SEVERE SOLARWX

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

Geomagnetic index of 4 has been reached late night Wednesday.

Some Auroras were triggered in high latitude areas.

NOAA forecasters are expecting Isolated active period (geomagnetic disturbance) tomorrow i.e 16th Sept 2010... I definitely don't understand the reason they are giving i.e CME of 11th Sept 2010..

According to me, the CME already impacted earth with Kp of 4.. However some late coming CME on the same day can influence the earth's magnetic field tomorrow.

I am not in a favour of Active period on 16th Sept 2010

A Big Coronal Hole is rotating towards the earth. A recent coronal high speed might reach earth in next 3-4 days. So that time I can expect a proton flux happening

Sunspot 1106 hurls another solar flare and some CME

RIGHT-

THE DARK BLACK PATCH ON THE SUN WILL BE ROTATING TOWARDS EARTH IN COMING TIME. A CORONAL HIGH SPEED STREAM MIGHT BE HITING THE EARTH FROM IT

BELOW IT I.E FILAMENTS AROUND SUNSPOT 1106

Akshay's Gyaan sets up "SEVERE SOLARWX" section on the blog

Finally, an official confirmation of establishing a well defined Space Weather Forecasting agency.

I already had made more than a dozen of Space Weather Forecasts since August 2010.

But there was no specific name given to the organization as we have the Global Earth Weather forecasting agency-METD WEATHER.

METD WEATHER was established on June 1,2009. Its parent blog is Akshay's Gyaan

On the same basis, we have setup a section on blog (though not a different blog as managing 3 blogs will become difficult). The name of the Akshay's Gyaan Space Weather Forecasting agency is -

"SEVERE SOLARWX" WX means weather in meteorological aspects. Severe Solar WX means Severe Solar Weather.

All the posts relating to space weather will be done on Akshay's Gyaan blog

The Severe Solar forecaster will be Akshay Deoras

Electron Flux from GOES show upcoming CME!

The 5 min data from GOES Electron flux unit is indicating a fluctuation in the graph and it means that the geomagnetic field of the earth is slowly becoming unstable. The Kp index from GOES also has surged to 3 from 1 mark on 14th Sept 2010 early hours (GMT).

A Coronal Mass Ejection had happened on Sun on Sept 10 2010 which was not directly aimed towards the earth but the outer expanding clouds had a possibility of generating a Kp index of 4 .

The datas from STEREO spacecraft aren't showing any approaching CME in significant level towards earth and no cloud expanding on Stereo Ahead HI 2 plot

It looks like some charged particles associated with that CME are now striking the earth. I don't expect a Geomagnetic storm generation. But High altitude observers much watch for Auroras during late night hours of 14th and 15th Sept 2010

Active 1106!

The sunspot 1106 which previously was named as 1100 which is now rotating towards the earth is already active and

again has erupted a Class B1 flare and seen from Coronagraphs, CME.

Since the sunspot is away from the ea

rth, that Coronal Mass ejection is not expected to hit the earth but if another eruptions happen when 1106 faces the earth, then it can trigger a direct hit of CME towards the earth and causing a geomagnetic storm in coming days

RIGHT- GIANT CME ON THE LOWER LEFT SIDE OF THE SUN FROM SUNSPOT 1106

Sunspot 1105 emits a C3 class flare and CME!

Magnetic reconnection happened again at sunspot no. 1105 as a result of which that sunspot hurled a Massive C3 class solar flare on 2330UT,Sept.8. Captured images from SDO and SOHO clearly show Coronal Mass Ejection had happened on the sun but the CME currently is heading towards a direction where no planets are situated currently so It w'd miss everything.

Currently the solar activity will go down since no new sunspot has developed on the SDO facing side of the sun. 

Also the geomagnetic activity is expected to remain down after early unsettled levels of Electron Flux

Attachments-

1] Solar Flare strip as captured by Solar Dynamics Observatory aka SDO

2] Latest Coronagraph from the sun showing massive CME on the upper right part of the image

3] X ray flux showing a C3 flare emission

Magnitude 7.0 Earthquake of Christchurch, New Zealand

Location	43.530°S, 172.120°E
Depth	5 km (3.1 miles) set by location program
Region	SOUTH ISLAND OF NEW ZEALAND
Distances	45 km (30 miles) W of Christchurch, New Zealand 200 km (125 miles) SSE of Westport, New Zealand 290 km (180 miles) NNE of Dunedin, New Zealand 330 km (205 miles) SW of WELLINGTON, New Zealand
Time	Saturday, Sep 04, 2010, 04.36.46 AM Local time (UTC+12)
Parameters	NST (Number of station reporting Primary and Secondary wave for this earthquake) 374 Nph (Number of Primary and Secondary wave observation used to compute hypocenter location) 374 Dmin (Horizontal distance from from the epicenter to the nearest station) 88.7 km Rmss (the difference between predicted arrival time and observed arrival time of the earthquake) 0 sec Gp (The largest azimuthal gap between azimuthally adjacent stations) 18° M-type=centroid moment magnitude (Mw), Version=9
Source	Institute of Geological and Nuclear Sciences, Lower Hutt, New Zealand

Christchurch lies on the layer of Quarternary age fan of gravel deposit. This layer is created when ice age glaciers carving their path along South Island folded mountain and laid their stone loadings onshore. Gravel is considered loose enough so it is not decelerate the seismic wave much. According to USGS' shakeMap, acceleration of seismic wave in Christchurch is 40 % of gravitational acceleration in 0.3 s period wave map. If the acceleration of seismic wave is juxtaposed with Mercalli Modified Intensity scale, the city of Christchurch would have experiencing a horrifying VIII MMI doomsday shake.

SEISMOGRAM DISPLAY OF MC QUEEN VALLEY STATION
note a streak near 12.00 point





Nah, 16 minutes after the primary earthquake, a weaker 5.1 M quake shook Christchurch. Another weaker earthquakes could be seen on seismogram notes before.

Magnitude 7.0 Earthquake strikes South Island of New Zealand !

ABOVE- AN EXTENSIVE DAMAGE REPORTED IN CHRISTCHURCH DUE TO THAT EARTHQUAKE MEASURED 7.0 BY USGC

TOP IMAGE- THE USGC SHAKEMAP FOR CHRISTCHURCH AREA,NEW ZEALAND

Its almost a fresh update and a breaking news that I am bringing in less than 1.30hrs from the actual happening

A strong Earthquake measuring 7.0 and at a depth of 12km struck 55Km WNW of Christchurch city in New Zealand! This happened at 16:35:46UT(3rd Sept 2010) or 04:35:46LT(4th Sept 2010) in New Zealand . Aftershocks followed this earthquake. No local Tsunami has been generated since the depth of earthquake is not strong and is more towards the upper part.

Its feared that a lot of damage has been caused in Christchurch area and we hope that no lives are lost in this incident!

Since I am not very versed in seismology, my colleague Aluth Fian who is better known for his volcano writeups will make an update on technical aspects of this earthquake on Saturday with the related photos and details

Sinabung Volcano First Historical Eruption

Alutsyah Luthfian Create your badge


Mount Sinabung is a 2 460 meters high Pleistocene-to-Holocene stratovolcano located in Tanah Karo Regency, North Sumatra Province of Indonesia. The migration of summit vents along N-S trending line has given an elongated form of its summit. The youngest crater of this conical andecitic to dacitic stratovolcano is at southern end of four overlapping craters. Solfataric activity WAS seen on its summit and upper flanks of Sinabung in 1912. there is no historical record of Sinabung eruption before today, as volcanological data from Indonesian Volcanism Bureau had been classified this volcano in Type B volcano, meaning that this volcano is never erupted before 1600 AD and features volcanic activity. Because it was included as a Type B volcano, (until today) there is no volcanism observatory at this mountain. All volcanic activity is observed from Medan. Now this volcano is classified into Type A, meaning that there is a known historical eruption of the volcano after 1600 AD.

Surono, the chairman of Geologic Hazard Mitigation and Volcanism Center was swear, "if Sinabung Volcano is gonna erupt, i have to put my position as a chairman". Now, the Sinabung volcano is erupt and i beg your swear! :-)

Aids has came to the disaster-affected region. The aids are mostly came in form of maskings, 75 government officers, foods, and other kind of logistics. I predicted that the ash from Sinabung will interfere some flight schedules from International Airport of Polonia 3 days from now, the cause is the ash will be directed North East. (based on GFS model).

SATURDAY, AUGUST 28, 2010
05.04 AM GMT (12.04 PM local time)
Sinabung volcano's activity is increasing, signed by the release of hot gases and water vapor. Lahars and ash rain is also reported by people living on Sinabung's flank. Villagers also heared thundering sound from the volcano. Some 26 000 villagers has fled to nearby city centers: Kabanjahe and Brastagi, also Medan and Pematang Siantar. They are evacuated to church and mosques and other social facilities. They don't want to go home before the official stated that the condition is secure.

5 years ago the Sinabung volcano was rumbling and roaring then followed with avalanche. However, it was not categorized as volcanic eruption.

05.15 PM GMT (Sunday, August 29, 2010--00.15 AM local time)

2 460 m Sinabung volcano started releasing molten lava. the lava fountain is visible from afar, spewing lava into the night sky and flow some into the flank. Hot ash with white to yellow color is spread into areas located tens kilometers. But in the morning, the lava fountain is not visible due to foggy weather.

03.00 AM GMT, Sunday, August 29, 2010

Refugees do riot at Regent's house asking for foods. They had been waiting for 8 hours in refuge camp. After the riot finished, the foods then came.

07.36 AM GMT, Sunday, August 29, 2010

One dies due to respiratory problem caused by Sinabung's ash.

10.37 AM GMT, Sunday, August 29, 2010

Geologists has sent to eruption site for determining whether the erupted material is containing Silicon. if the erupted material is containing silicon then the eruption is explosive and will last for months. That kind of long eruption was happened to Galungggung Volcano in West Java Province of Indonesia. The Galunggung volcano was slept since before 1600, then it awakes at 1983, caused 10 moths long explosive eruption.

10.00 PM GMT, Sunday, August 29, 2010

A 5-minute quake rattled villages near Mount Sinabung.

Early Morning of Friday, Sep 3, 2010 Local Time: Sinabung erupted for the second time.

COMPILED VIDEO OF SINABUNG ERUPTION

From August 29 - 30, 2010

I take attention of this volcano due to its reactivation after a very long quiescense

Sources:

thejakartapost.com (English)

ANTARA (English)

metrotvnews.com (Indonesian Language)

kompas.com (Indonesian Language)

volcano.si.edu (Smithsonian Volcanism Site)

The High speed Solar Wind stream from the coronal hole now striking the earth

I had almost forgotten the date- 24th August 2010 as I am currently engrossed in preparing a synopsis relating to a product innovated by me and titled briefly as "BEST FROM WASTE SOUND"

As was mentioned in the earlier post, A large or I w'd call wedge Coronal hole which was rotating towards the earth was expected to face the earth side of the sun by 24th August 2010

A coronal hole has an area of open magnetic fields which actually help in the intensification of the solar winds. The planetary k index or kp plot showed unsettled levels during the late night of August 23! The KP was 2 just before the midnight when it plunged to 4 and indicating unsettled level

There was a massive fluctuation in the Electron flux just after a massive stream of Solar wind hit the earth causing disturbances in the geomagnetic field of the earth!
Since this coronal hole is now facing the earth, I w'd expect more disturbances in the next 48hrs

This one is triggering Auroras in high latitude regions! People should remain alert for auroras in the high latitude areas on the next 2 days.

A coronal hole on sun will now face the earth

With no active sunspots currently facing the earth on sun, the coronal mass ejections and solar flares will remain quiet resulting in mostly stable earths magnetic field. a large coronal hole as shown in this x ray image of the sun will now be facing the earth resulting in release of tremendous solar wind which contains charged particles and plasma from the sun,s atmosphere. Since this will be facing the earth, there will be increase in the solar wind and can cause a glancing blow to earth magnetic field and people living in high latitude region will get to see active auroras in the sky due to this phenomena. The coronal holes contain open magnetic field which enables to intensify the present solar wind. I estimate it to reach before 24th aug. So auroras from 22nd only
Akshay Deoras
www.akshaydeoras.blogspot.com
www.metdweather.blogspot.com

S1 SOLAR RADIATION STORM EXPECTED ON THE EARTH

IN THE ABOVE PLOT OF THE PROTON FLUX THE 10MeV FLUX OR RED LINE HAS CROSSED THE 10pfu line. IT MEANS THE ONSET OF A SOLAR RADIATION STORM

NOAA HAS CONFIRMED A TYPE TWO RADIO EMISSION FROM THE SUN AT 0551UT AND ESTIMATED VELOCITY OF 545KM/SEC

THEN AT 0900UT, THE SDO PLOT HAS INDICATED THAT THE 10MeV PROTON FLUX will likely rise about 10 pfu

NOAA has issued an alert where it has mentioned a ONSET CONDITION for the S1 PREDICTED

SOLAR RADIATION STORM

Massive Cloud of Coronal Mass Ejection ejected from Sun on Wednesday. Might be heading towards the earth

IMAGES-

THE FIRST IMAGE IS OF THE LASCO C2. IT IS A CORONAGRAPH OF THE SUN TAKEN AT 0636. THE BRIGHT CORONAL MASS EJECTION CAN BE EASILY SEEN ON THE RIGHT PART OF THE SUN

2ND IMAGE IS A 6MIN EARLY IMAGE THAN THE FIRST ONE AND A LONG RANGE CORONAGRAPH

THE BRIGHT EXPLOSION IS THE CME!!

THIRD IMAGE -

THE 0658UT IMAGE OF SUN IN THE FE XVIII 94 ANGSTROM REGION OF SUN

YOU CAN SEE THE EXPLOSION ON THE UPPER RIGHT PART OF THE SUN

FOURTH IMAGE IS OF THE MAGNETOGRAM FROM SOHO

IT SHOWS OPP. POLES IN THE SUNSPOT 1098

Massive Cornonal Mass Ejection also designated as CME is now exploding from the sun associated with a CLass C4 flare!

At about 0600UT, The SDO X ray flux recorded a Class C4 solar flare ejected from the sun and then immediately datas from the coronagraph of SOHO confirmed that Sun is hurling MASSIVE CME which triggered after the solar flare! The SOHO MDI Magnetogram has been indicating that the opposite poles are present in the Sunspot 1098. So the magnetic fields around 1098 became repulsive(weak) and ejected a solar flare.
Soon after the flare, Coronal Mass Ejection was ejected.
I don't find any coming Solar Radiation storm as after the ejection at this time, the proton flux plot remained quiet unlike the previous time when a C4 caused a solar radiation storm on 14th August 2010. But some later plots can possibly indicate a minor storm
I have less information on the present side of earth as viewed from the sun but strongly believe that this CME is ejected towards the earth and mostly some part of it can likely give a glancing blew to earth's magnetic field by 21st August 2010

meanwhile, the previous estimates didn't materialize and the disturbance in the geomagnetic field of the earth remained less.

Sun emits many CME and Solar flares

I wanted to write this text yesterday only but was unable to do as I was partially ill

On Sunday, August 15, the sun emitted many solar flares along with notable Coronal mass ejection. AS being seen from the X ray flux, two B5 class solar flares were erupted near 0600UT,12UT then a B4 flare was emitted near 1500UT and the bigger!! a class C4 near 1800UT...

Many Coronal Mass ejections hurled from the sun during the entire day as a result of very weak magnetic fields around the sun and repulsive tendency. Three significant Coronal Mass Ejections were seen by the Solar Dynamic Observatory's coronagraphs.
None of this clouds are actually heading towards the earth but the CME from sunspot 1093 and 1099 could give a glancing blow to the earth as some plasma is heading towards the earth
It was the result of the end of complex eruptions which had taken place on 1093 and 1099. The CLass C4 flare is associated with it.

The geomagnetic field will have unsettled levels in the coming days due to many events.
The current increase in the activity is due a coronalhole high speed stream. Then the expected events on 17th and 18th (Unsettled KP levels and Auroras in high latitude areas) will be due to the Class C4 flare which had happened on August 14. Similarly some addition to this unsettled levels will be due to a part of the Coronal Mass Ejection associated with the Class C4 flare from 1093 and 1099 on August 15

So in all,
It will be bountiful week for high latitude areas as they will likely see good auroras everyday till August 19 (If no new CME takes place)

Solar Forecast
As I was thinking earlier regarding the formation of some new sunspots on the Solar Dynamic Observatory facing side of the sun, some new sunspots are mostly generating.
Two new sunspots are expected to form!
The Magnetogram of SOHO is showing some weak(repulsive natured) aka opposite polarity fields magnetic fields around 1093 and 1099 and also around the newly developing sunspots..
But the sunspot 1093 and 1099 will now be facing away from the the SDO side. Also the emerging sunspots have some opp polarity fields around them so some low class flares like B class is possible and less chance of C flare as its widespread unsettlement of fields and not around sunspots

NOAA forecasters are giving a 35% chance of ACTIVE GEOMAGNETIC STORM in next 24-48hrs in high latitude. So lets wait and see how the situation unfurls!

IMAGES-
THE X RAY FLUX PLOT FROM NOAA
AND SINCE I WAS UNABLE TO SEE THIS SITUATION YESTERDAY I HAVE USED SOME IMAGES OF THE CORONAGRAPH FROM SPACEWEATHER.COM

Sun is emitting solar flares and coronal mass ejection

The magnetic field of sun has become very unstable at some areas as being depicted by the magnetogram from solar dynamic observatory. The sun emitted a class C4 flare and on august 15 emitting many class B Flares. meanwhile from the C4 flare, the first solar radiation storm hit the earth. This was a minor one and hardly did anything other than affecting the magnetic field of the earth.
This was the first solar radiation storm in this solar cycle. Meanwhile, data from graphs of sdo indicate approaching coronal mass ejection will likely influence the earth on aug 17. Also, many coronal mass ejection has been happening on sunday

Sunspot 1093 and 1099 together emits a class C4 solar flare

UP

IN THE IMAGE YOU CAN SEE THE X RAY FLUX HITING C4 RANGE
The magnetic fields again got unstable on 14th August near to 10UT around the two near sunspots 1093 and 1099. The result was that a combined flare of magnitude Class 4 or C4 solar flare was emitted.

The entire activity lasted near to 2hrs. Also from the datas from SDO, a giant plasma was emitted in space so it possibly c'd have led to a minor Coronal Mass Ejection!

AS those two sunspots are facing away from earth, the emitted cloud of plasma will not reach the earth..

At the same time, as I was expecting on 14th August the solar wind which got emitted in space from the coronal hole which extended a large distance on sun FINALLY ARRIVED and now influencing the earth's magnetic field causing a Solar Radiation storm

A solar radiation storm happens when solar protons emitted from sun hit the earth. They are mostly deflected due to the magnetic field but cause a solar radiation storm!

NOAA has classified it as S1 which is a minor! as I had estimated

The onset was near 1022UT,14th August 2010.... Current speed of Solar wind is 419.7Km/sec and density of 1.8 protons/cm3 as of 1735UT

This minor storm will not cause any notable effects!

Solar activity is expected to remain quiet after 16th august as the two days, the high speed coronal stream will affect the earth

I think, some new sunspots will be developing on the SDO side of the sun in the coming days

Quiet Space Weather expected in the coming few days

ABOVE- THE SUNSPOT 1093 NOW HAS TWO DARK HOLES INSTEAD OF ONE DARK HOLE. THIS MEANS REDUCTION IN INTENSITY

The active sunspots are already facing away from sun. The CME which was emitted on 7th August reached earth on 10-11August and made a peak 3 Kp. It did make a good aurora show in high latitudes. No geomagnetic storm was triggered by it

Sunspot 1098 and 1097 are now moving on the earth-sun line side. As I expect no significant solar flares and especially coronal mass ejections from the spots 1097 and 1098, space weather will remain quiet BUT a gigantic coronal hole has been created.This hole starts from sunspot 1093 which has not split into two parts extending to the southern side of the earth. A strong solar wind will be eminent on the earth as the coronal hole is at the Sun-earth line. This solar wind will cause some very weak geomagnetic effect on the earth. I think the solar wind will peak by 14th august night and more on 15th august mid period. NO SUCH NOTABLE effects possible and some slight increase in auroras possible but it will not be EARTH SHATTERING.

The PERSID Meteor showers too are going in a good way with 35 perseids and hour and some fireballs also!

Still no signs of CME arrival

1ST IMAGE-

THE 3 DAY KP PLOT

2ND IMAGE-

THE AURORAL ORBIT OF 0653 UT ON AUG 11 2010

Nearly 24hrs have passed away from the predicted day of the arrival of the ejected Coronal Mass Ejection from the Sun which happened on 7th August evening.

The Planetary K index of Kp index remained very quiet on Tuesday thus concluding that there were no disturbances in the magnetic field of the earth

The reasons for this probably are the slow movement than expected of the Coronal Mass Ejection and also questions on its intensity

Data from SHO had shown that considerably good CME was ejected from sun and heading in the direction of the earth. If the CME is fast then it makes a very good impact on earth's magnetic field.

If it is slow then it doesn't make any notable effect on the earth's magnetic field.

However solar wind is blowing at 481 Km/sec but the density of proton has decreased

The maximum 24hr Kp was 3. Kp was 2 in the morning,dropped down to 1 and rose to 3 by night

THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT it has maintained the intensity for 6hrs on Wednesday and probably maintains in the arriving datas

My forecast says that Wednesday has the last chance of this storm impact

The intensity has to be less and possibly near a Kp 4-5.Chance of Kp 4 on wednesday- 40%

Kp 5- 10%

Still Auroras orbit shows good auroras in the Higher 60's and I will expect Auroras too in higher latitude also on WEDNESDAY

166 NOW KILLED AT LEH.TOLL INCREASING

The toll of the dead at leh has now risen to 166 with 400 missing

23 foreigners lost their lives in the flash flood

Three french,one Italian and person from Spandrid were killed

Three French citizens — Augavelis Henri, Hellot Jacques and Daniel Hauri, an Italian identified as Riccardo Titton and Maromas Maria Lousdes from Spain have been declared dead, they said.

Sixteen of those killed are from Nepal, namely Nema Zangmo, Tsering Neklal, Bakta Bahadur, Kama Lama, Ajay Raina, Khunchok Gelak, Lakpa Gyalmo, Shekhar, Mahurdin Ansari, Manee Patel, Ramesh Patel, Narai Badur Sume, Santosh Kumar, Nel Badur, Saryanareyan Chaudhary and Anil Chaudhary, they said.

Two other victims were Tibetans. They were identified as Pasang Tsering and Tsering Yangkyid, the sources said.

LEH-SRINAGAR ROAD-- CLOSED

LEH-MANALI ROAD -- CLOSED

The flight operations are on a full swing

The list of those who have died is put on-

leh.nic.in

Coronal Mass Ejection from 1093 sunspot now heading towards the earth

I have started receiving confirmations from the datas of Solar and Heliospheric observatory(SOHO) that a Coronal Mass ejection or CME which was ejected from Sun on August 7 2010 evening is heading towards the earth and will strike the earth on 10th August 2010

There was a slight disturbance in the planetary index on early August 9 which proved to be arrival of some early part of it after unsettled 2MeV electron flux exceeding 1000pfu

On August 10, the pfu also exceeded the 1000 pfu value and as a result of the images of CME heading towards earth and those datas, a Geomagnetic K index of 4 is being expected

This geomagnetic storm is not expected to be a big one but I am amazed to see that it can be bigger than expected.This one is likely going to affect the magnetic field of the earth on 10th August and will cause Brilliant auroras in the high latitude areas.

The NOAA scale is 30% chance of active geomagnetic storm in high latituded and a 25% in mid latitudes.So I think Auroras can be seen in polar regions, and in the 55 degree zones also!

The Sunspot 1093 is right now facing the earth, but I don't find another chance of eruption from it

However the sunspot 1096 is becoming active a low class flare will be possible as magnetic fields are unsettled there.

MY FORECAST-(ON EXPERIMENTAL BASIS SINCE I HAVE JUST STARTED FORECASTING)

A PARTIAL GEOMAGNETIC STORM WILL HIT THE EARTH ON AUGUST 10.

A NEAR G1 GEOMAGNETIC STORM WILL HIT. BUT KP SEEMS TO BE SETTING AT 4-5

AURORAL DISPLAY IS LIKELY IN HIGH LATITUDES

Some CME will now strike the earth

The Sunspot 1093 had emitted a Class M1 flare on August 7 at 1825UT. Nearly 48hrs have passed and some coronal mass ejection is likely to hit the earth causing a spectacular Auroral display in the polar regions.Though I don't expect a Solar Storm or NOAA ACTIVE storm as the ejection was away from the sun-earth line. As per the datas from NOAA Space Weather Prediction center,the electron 2MeV integral flux exceeded 1000 pfu. NOAA has issued a continued alert for it!

The Kp index is 4 which means it is unsettled. This also indicates the likely hood of approaching Solar storm which is likely going to affect the magnetic field and cause Auroras in polar regions.

Yesterday's maximum was 3562pfu.

There is a chance of a M class flare eruption in next 2-3 days from 1093 and a isolated chance of Geophysical activity in next 48hrs about 10%

MY PROBABILITY-

M FLARE- 10%

X FLARE- 1%

THE SUNSPOT 1093 WILL ROTATE TOWARDS EARTH IN NEXT 24-48HRS

IF ANYTHING MAKES THE MAGNETIC FIELD UNSTABLE THEN EARTH WILL DIRECTLY RECEIVE A SOLAR STORM.

AURORAS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGH LATITUDES AS THE KP INDEX IS 4 AND IS UNSETTLED.