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Wednesday, April 11, 2012

POWERFUL AFTERSHOCK HITS WEST COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA

AKG SEISMOLOGY-

*** POWERFUL AFTERSHOCK HITS WEST COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA***
*** USGC REPORTS 8.2M***




A STRONG AFTERSHOCK HAS BEEN REPORTED AT 0.773°N, 92.452°E 


AT 10:43:09 UTC


AS OF NOW, TSUNAMI IS HEADING TOWARDS THE THAILAND COAST


*************************************************************************************************************************************

UPDATED INFORMATION FROM PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER IS INDICATING A STRONGER TSUNAMI WAVE THAN THE PREVIOUS HITING INDONESIA COAST

TSUNAMI BULLETIN NUMBER 004
PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER/NOAA/NWS
ISSUED AT 1054Z 11 APR 2012

THIS BULLETIN IS FOR ALL AREAS OF THE INDIAN OCEAN.

... AN INDIAN-OCEAN-WIDE TSUNAMI WATCH IS IN EFFECT ...

... A MAJOR AFTERSHOCK OCCURRED AT 11:43Z WITH MAGNITUDE 8.3 ...

A TSUNAMI WATCH IS STILL IN EFFECT FOR

 INDONESIA / INDIA / AUSTRALIA / SRI LANKA / MYANMAR / THAILAND /
 MALDIVES / UNITED KINGDOM / MALAYSIA / MAURITIUS / REUNION /
 SEYCHELLES / OMAN / PAKISTAN / SOMALIA / MADAGASCAR / IRAN /
 UAE / YEMEN / COMORES / MOZAMBIQUE / KENYA / TANZANIA /
 CROZET ISLANDS / BANGLADESH / KERGUELEN ISLANDS / SOUTH AFRICA /
 SINGAPORE

THIS BULLETIN IS ISSUED AS ADVICE TO GOVERNMENT AGENCIES.  ONLY
NATIONAL AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT AGENCIES HAVE THE AUTHORITY TO MAKE
DECISIONS REGARDING THE OFFICIAL STATE OF ALERT IN THEIR AREA AND
ANY ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN IN RESPONSE.

AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS

 ORIGIN TIME -  0839Z 11 APR 2012
 COORDINATES -   2.3 NORTH   93.1 EAST
 LOCATION    -  OFF W COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA
 MAGNITUDE   -  8.7

MEASUREMENTS OR REPORTS OF TSUNAMI WAVE ACTIVITY

 GAUGE LOCATION        LAT   LON    TIME        AMPL         PER
 -------------------  ----- ------  -----  ---------------  -----
 TELUKDALAM ID         0.6N  97.8E  0952Z   0.15M /  0.5FT  08MIN
 SABANG ID             5.8N  95.3E  1010Z   0.36M /  1.2FT  06MIN
 MEULABOH ID           4.1N  96.1E  1007Z   1.06M /  3.5FT  12MIN
 DART 23401            8.9N  88.5E  0956Z   0.03M /  0.1FT  06MIN
 SABANG ID             5.8N  95.3E  0956Z   0.31M /  1.0FT  08MIN

 LAT  - LATITUDE (N-NORTH, S-SOUTH)
 LON  - LONGITUDE (E-EAST, W-WEST)
 TIME - TIME OF THE MEASUREMENT (Z IS UTC IS GREENWICH TIME)
 AMPL - TSUNAMI AMPLITUDE MEASURED RELATIVE TO NORMAL SEA LEVEL.
        IT IS ...NOT... CREST-TO-TROUGH WAVE HEIGHT.
        VALUES ARE GIVEN IN BOTH METERS(M) AND FEET(FT).
 PER  - PERIOD OF TIME IN MINUTES(MIN) FROM ONE WAVE TO THE NEXT.

 NOTE - DART MEASUREMENTS ARE FROM THE DEEP OCEAN AND THEY
        ARE GENERALLY MUCH SMALLER THAN WOULD BE COASTAL
         MEASUREMENTS AT SIMILAR LOCATIONS.

EVALUATION

 SEA LEVEL READINGS INDICATE A TSUNAMI WAS GENERATED. IT MAY
 ALREADY HAVE BEEN DESTRUCTIVE ALONG SOME COASTS.

 BASED ON THESE DATA THE THREAT CONTINUES FOR ALL COASTAL AREAS OF
 THE INDIAN OCEAN. FOR THOSE AREAS - WHEN NO MAJOR WAVES HAVE
 OCCURRED FOR AT LEAST TWO HOURS AFTER THE ESTIMATED ARRIVAL TIME
 OR DAMAGING WAVES HAVE NOT OCCURRED FOR AT LEAST TWO HOURS THEN
 LOCAL AUTHORITIES CAN ASSUME THE THREAT IS PASSED. DANGER TO
 BOATS AND COASTAL STRUCTURES CAN CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL HOURS DUE
 TO RAPID CURRENTS.  AS LOCAL CONDITIONS CAN CAUSE A WIDE
 VARIATION IN TSUNAMI WAVE ACTION THE ALL CLEAR DETERMINATION MUST
 BE MADE BY LOCAL AUTHORITIES.

TSUNAMI GENERATES IN THE INDIAN OCEAN!

AKG SEISMOLOGY-

*** WATER RECEDS IN THAILAND***



ABOVE- ORAWAN SANGCHAN REPORTS FROM CLOSE TO BANGKOK,THAILAND


PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER HAS CONFIRMED TSUNAMI WAVE GENERATION*****************

Over 1ft Tsunami Wave reported from Sabang,Indonesia


TSUNAMI LIKELY HEADING TOWARDS THAILAND



The Tsunami Wave as was anticipated has been generated! The recent update from the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center indicates the elevated Sea heights at the Northern Sumatra and vicinity




TSUNAMI BULLETIN NUMBER 003
PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER/NOAA/NWS
ISSUED AT 1014Z 11 APR 2012

THIS BULLETIN IS FOR ALL AREAS OF THE INDIAN OCEAN.

... AN INDIAN-OCEAN-WIDE TSUNAMI WATCH IS IN EFFECT ...

A TSUNAMI WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR

 INDONESIA / INDIA / AUSTRALIA / SRI LANKA / MYANMAR / THAILAND /
 MALDIVES / UNITED KINGDOM / MALAYSIA / MAURITIUS / REUNION /
 SEYCHELLES / OMAN / PAKISTAN / SOMALIA / MADAGASCAR / IRAN /
 UAE / YEMEN / COMORES / MOZAMBIQUE / KENYA / TANZANIA /
 CROZET ISLANDS / BANGLADESH / KERGUELEN ISLANDS / SOUTH AFRICA /
 SINGAPORE

THIS BULLETIN IS ISSUED AS ADVICE TO GOVERNMENT AGENCIES.  ONLY
NATIONAL AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT AGENCIES HAVE THE AUTHORITY TO MAKE
DECISIONS REGARDING THE OFFICIAL STATE OF ALERT IN THEIR AREA AND
ANY ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN IN RESPONSE.

AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS

 ORIGIN TIME -  0839Z 11 APR 2012
 COORDINATES -   2.3 NORTH   93.1 EAST
 LOCATION    -  OFF W COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA
 MAGNITUDE   -  8.7

MEASUREMENTS OR REPORTS OF TSUNAMI WAVE ACTIVITY

 GAUGE LOCATION        LAT   LON    TIME        AMPL         PER
 -------------------  ----- ------  -----  ---------------  -----
 DART 23401            8.9N  88.5E  0956Z   0.03M /  0.1FT  06MIN
 MEULABOH ID           4.1N  96.1E  0950Z   0.27M /  0.9FT  14MIN
 SABANG ID             5.8N  95.3E  0956Z   0.31M /  1.0FT  08MIN

 LAT  - LATITUDE (N-NORTH, S-SOUTH)
 LON  - LONGITUDE (E-EAST, W-WEST)
 TIME - TIME OF THE MEASUREMENT (Z IS UTC IS GREENWICH TIME)
 AMPL - TSUNAMI AMPLITUDE MEASURED RELATIVE TO NORMAL SEA LEVEL.
        IT IS ...NOT... CREST-TO-TROUGH WAVE HEIGHT.
        VALUES ARE GIVEN IN BOTH METERS(M) AND FEET(FT).
 PER  - PERIOD OF TIME IN MINUTES(MIN) FROM ONE WAVE TO THE NEXT.

 NOTE - DART MEASUREMENTS ARE FROM THE DEEP OCEAN AND THEY
        ARE GENERALLY MUCH SMALLER THAN WOULD BE COASTAL
         MEASUREMENTS AT SIMILAR LOCATIONS.

EVALUATION

 SEA LEVEL READINGS INDICATE A TSUNAMI WAS GENERATED. IT MAY
 ALREADY HAVE BEEN DESTRUCTIVE ALONG SOME COASTS.

 BASED ON THESE DATA THE THREAT CONTINUES FOR ALL COASTAL AREAS OF
 THE INDIAN OCEAN. FOR THOSE AREAS - WHEN NO MAJOR WAVES HAVE
 OCCURRED FOR AT LEAST TWO HOURS AFTER THE ESTIMATED ARRIVAL TIME
 OR DAMAGING WAVES HAVE NOT OCCURRED FOR AT LEAST TWO HOURS THEN
 LOCAL AUTHORITIES CAN ASSUME THE THREAT IS PASSED. DANGER TO
 BOATS AND COASTAL STRUCTURES CAN CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL HOURS DUE
 TO RAPID CURRENTS.  AS LOCAL CONDITIONS CAN CAUSE A WIDE
 VARIATION IN TSUNAMI WAVE ACTION THE ALL CLEAR DETERMINATION MUST
 BE MADE BY LOCAL AUTHORITIES.

ESTIMATED INITIAL TSUNAMI WAVE ARRIVAL TIMES AT FORECAST POINTS
WITHIN THE WARNING AND WATCH AREAS ARE GIVEN BELOW. ACTUAL
ARRIVAL TIMES MAY DIFFER AND THE INITIAL WAVE MAY NOT BE THE
LARGEST. A TSUNAMI IS A SERIES OF WAVES AND THE TIME BETWEEN
SUCCESSIVE WAVES CAN BE FIVE MINUTES TO ONE HOUR.







 LOCATION         FORECAST POINT     COORDINATES     ARRIVAL TIME
 --------------------------------    ------------    ------------
 INDONESIA        SIMEULUE            2.5N  96.0E    0912Z 11 APR
                  BANDA_ACEH          5.5N  95.1E    0933Z 11 APR
                  SIBERUT             1.5S  98.7E    0944Z 11 APR
                  PADANG              0.9S 100.1E    1025Z 11 APR
                  BENGKULU            3.9S 102.0E    1037Z 11 APR
                  CILACAP             7.8S 108.9E    1150Z 11 APR
                  BANDAR_LAMPUNG      5.7S 105.3E    1200Z 11 APR
                  BALI                8.7S 115.3E    1234Z 11 APR
                  BELAWAN             3.8N  98.8E    1326Z 11 APR
                  KUPANG             10.0S 123.4E    1333Z 11 APR
                  BALI                8.7S 115.3E    1234Z 11 APR
 INDIA            GREAT_NICOBAR       7.1N  93.6E    0937Z 11 APR
                  LITTLE_ANDAMAN     10.7N  92.3E    1015Z 11 APR
                  NORTH_ANDAMAN      13.3N  92.6E    1045Z 11 APR
                  PORT_BLAIR         11.9N  92.7E    1050Z 11 APR
                  CHENNAI            13.4N  80.4E    1134Z 11 APR
                  TRIVANDRUM          8.3N  76.9E    1204Z 11 APR
                  KAKINADA           17.2N  82.7E    1204Z 11 APR
                  MANGALORE          13.3N  74.4E    1339Z 11 APR
                  BOMBAY             18.8N  72.6E    1605Z 11 APR
                  GULF_OF_KUTCH      22.7N  68.9E    1636Z 11 APR
 AUSTRALIA        COCOS_ISLAND       12.1S  96.7E    1046Z 11 APR
                  NORTH_WEST_CAPE    21.5S 113.9E    1312Z 11 APR
                  CAPE_INSPIRATIO    25.9S 113.0E    1413Z 11 APR
                  PERTH              32.0S 115.3E    1421Z 11 APR
                  AUGUSTA            34.3S 114.7E    1440Z 11 APR
                  GERALDTOWN         28.6S 114.3E    1456Z 11 APR
                  CAPE_LEVEQUE       16.1S 122.6E    1500Z 11 APR
                  ESPERANCE          34.0S 121.8E    1614Z 11 APR
                  KINGSTON_SOUTH_    37.0S 139.4E    1747Z 11 APR
                  HEARD_ISLAND       54.0S  73.5E    1803Z 11 APR
                  EUCLA_MOTEL        31.8S 128.9E    1824Z 11 APR
                  HOBART             43.3S 147.6E    1858Z 11 APR
                  DARWIN             12.1S 130.7E    1921Z 11 APR
 SRI LANKA        TRINCOMALEE         8.7N  81.3E    1049Z 11 APR
                  DONDRA_HEAD         5.9N  80.6E    1054Z 11 APR
                  COLOMBO             6.9N  79.8E    1121Z 11 APR
                  JAFFNA              9.9N  80.0E    1235Z 11 APR
 MYANMAR          CHEDUBA_ISLAND     18.9N  93.4E    1142Z 11 APR
                  CHEDUBA_ISLAND     18.9N  93.4E    1142Z 11 APR
                  PYINKAYAING        15.9N  94.3E    1152Z 11 APR
                  SITTWE             20.0N  92.9E    1220Z 11 APR
                  MERGUI             12.8N  98.4E    1328Z 11 APR
                  YANGON             16.5N  96.4E    1720Z 11 APR
 THAILAND         PHUKET              8.0N  98.2E    1113Z 11 APR
                  KO_PHRA_THONG       9.1N  98.2E    1203Z 11 APR
                  KO_TARUTAO          6.6N  99.6E    1233Z 11 APR
 MALDIVES         GAN                 0.6S  73.2E    1144Z 11 APR
                  MALE                4.2N  73.6E    1149Z 11 APR
                  MINICOV             8.3N  73.0E    1214Z 11 APR
 UNITED KINGDOM   DIEGO_GARCIA        7.3S  72.4E    1202Z 11 APR
 MALAYSIA         GEORGETOWN          5.4N 100.1E    1303Z 11 APR
                  PORT_DICKSON        2.5N 101.7E    1743Z 11 APR
 MAURITIUS        PORT_LOUIS         20.0S  57.3E    1500Z 11 APR
 REUNION          ST_DENIS           20.8S  55.2E    1514Z 11 APR
 SEYCHELLES       VICTORIA            4.5S  55.6E    1525Z 11 APR
 OMAN             SALALAH            16.9N  54.1E    1537Z 11 APR
                  MUSCAT             23.9N  58.6E    1544Z 11 APR
                  DUQM               19.7N  57.8E    1553Z 11 APR
 PAKISTAN         GWADAR             25.1N  62.4E    1546Z 11 APR
                  KARACHI            24.7N  66.9E    1638Z 11 APR
 SOMALIA          HILALAYA            6.4N  49.1E    1546Z 11 APR
                  CAPE_GUARO         11.9N  51.4E    1547Z 11 APR
                  MOGADISHU           2.0N  45.5E    1602Z 11 APR
                  KAAMBOONI           1.5S  41.9E    1629Z 11 APR
 MADAGASCAR       ANTSIRANANA        12.1S  49.5E    1548Z 11 APR
                  TOAMASINA          17.8S  49.6E    1601Z 11 APR
                  MANAKARA           22.2S  48.2E    1616Z 11 APR
                  MAHAJANGA          15.4S  46.2E    1652Z 11 APR
                  CAP_STE_MARIE      25.8S  45.2E    1716Z 11 APR
                  TOLIARA            23.4S  43.6E    1741Z 11 APR
 IRAN             GAVATER            25.0N  61.3E    1552Z 11 APR
 UAE              FUJAIRAH           25.1N  56.4E    1630Z 11 APR
 YEMEN            AL_MUKALLA         14.5N  49.2E    1637Z 11 APR
                  ADEN               13.0N  45.2E    1722Z 11 APR
 COMORES          MORONI             11.6S  43.3E    1649Z 11 APR
 MOZAMBIQUE       CABO_DELGADO       10.7S  40.7E    1706Z 11 APR
                  ANGOCHE            15.5S  40.6E    1738Z 11 APR
                  QUELIMANE          18.0S  37.1E    1905Z 11 APR
                  MAPUTO             25.9S  32.8E    1955Z 11 APR
                  BEIRA              19.9S  35.1E    2017Z 11 APR
 KENYA            MOMBASA             4.0S  39.7E    1706Z 11 APR
 TANZANIA         LINDI               9.8S  39.9E    1707Z 11 APR
                  DAR_ES_SALAAM       6.7S  39.4E    1710Z 11 APR
 CROZET ISLANDS   CROZET_ISLANDS     46.4S  51.8E    1734Z 11 APR
 BANGLADESH       CHITTAGONG         22.7N  91.2E    1735Z 11 APR
 KERGUELEN ISLAN  PORT_AUX_FRANCA    49.0S  69.1E    1816Z 11 APR
 SOUTH AFRICA     PRINCE_EDWARD_I    46.6S  37.6E    1907Z 11 APR
                  DURBAN             29.8S  31.2E    1910Z 11 APR
                  PORT_ELIZABETH     33.9S  25.8E    2011Z 11 APR
                  CAPE_TOWN          34.1S  18.0E    2111Z 11 APR
 SINGAPORE        SINGAPORE           1.2N 103.8E    2330Z 11 APR

8.7M EARTHQUAKE STRIKES WEST COST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA

AKG SEISMOLOGY-


MAGNITUDE 8.7 EARTHQUAKE HAS OCURED AT 08:38:38 UTC AT 2.3N,93.073E 


*** PEOPLE AT WESTERN COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA AND OTHER PARTS OF SUMATRA MUST PAY ATTENTION *************

THE EARTHQUAKE'S EPICENTER WAS 434 km (269 miles) SW of Banda Aceh, Sumatra, Indonesia
550 km (341 miles) SW of Lhokseumawe, Sumatra, Indonesia
963 km (598 miles) W of KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia
1797 km (1116 miles) WNW of JAKARTA, Java, Indonesia

TREMORS WERE FELT IN MUMBAI,KOLKATA,CHENNAI ( INDIA),SINGAPORE,THAILAND,MALAYSIA AND OTHER AREAS 

City map

The above image shows that the Earthquake is a sea earthquake and has good potentials of generating a Tsunami. The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center is still waiting for confirmation of Tsunami generation and hence has put the Indian Ocean countries on Tsunami Watch!!

As of 0845z,11th April  BELOW ARE THE ESTIMATED ARRIVAL TIMES 


 LOCATION         FORECAST POINT     COORDINATES     ARRIVAL TIME
 --------------------------------    ------------    ------------
 INDONESIA        SIMEULUE            2.5N  96.0E    0921Z 11 APR
                  BANDA_ACEH          5.5N  95.1E    0931Z 11 APR
                  SIBERUT             1.5S  98.7E    0941Z 11 APR
                  PADANG              0.9S 100.1E    1017Z 11 APR
                  BENGKULU            3.9S 102.0E    1038Z 11 APR
                  CILACAP             7.8S 108.9E    1205Z 11 APR
                  BANDAR_LAMPUNG      5.7S 105.3E    1213Z 11 APR
                  BALI                8.7S 115.3E    1253Z 11 APR
                  KUPANG             10.0S 123.4E    1338Z 11 APR
                  BELAWAN             3.8N  98.8E    1348Z 11 APR
                  BALI                8.7S 115.3E    1253Z 11 APR

 INDIA            GREAT_NICOBAR       7.1N  93.6E    0937Z 11 APR
                  LITTLE_ANDAMAN     10.7N  92.3E    1016Z 11 APR
                  PORT_BLAIR         11.9N  92.7E    1032Z 11 APR
                  NORTH_ANDAMAN      13.3N  92.6E    1052Z 11 APR
                  CHENNAI            13.4N  80.4E    1127Z 11 APR
                  KAKINADA           17.2N  82.7E    1205Z 11 APR
                  TRIVANDRUM          8.3N  76.9E    1208Z 11 APR
                  MANGALORE          13.3N  74.4E    1336Z 11 APR
                  BOMBAY             18.8N  72.6E    1608Z 11 APR
                  GULF_OF_KUTCH      22.7N  68.9E    1634Z 11 APR
 SRI LANKA        DONDRA_HEAD         5.9N  80.6E    1039Z 11 APR
                  TRINCOMALEE         8.7N  81.3E    1051Z 11 APR
                  COLOMBO             6.9N  79.8E    1120Z 11 APR
                  JAFFNA              9.9N  80.0E    1231Z 11 APR
 AUSTRALIA        COCOS_ISLAND       12.1S  96.7E    1045Z 11 APR
                  NORTH_WEST_CAPE    21.5S 113.9E    1314Z 11 APR
                  CAPE_INSPIRATIO    25.9S 113.0E    1413Z 11 APR
                  PERTH              32.0S 115.3E    1420Z 11 APR
                  AUGUSTA            34.3S 114.7E    1440Z 11 APR
                  GERALDTOWN         28.6S 114.3E    1459Z 11 APR
                  CAPE_LEVEQUE       16.1S 122.6E    1506Z 11 APR
                  ESPERANCE          34.0S 121.8E    1615Z 11 APR
                  KINGSTON_SOUTH_    37.0S 139.4E    1748Z 11 APR
                  HEARD_ISLAND       54.0S  73.5E    1802Z 11 APR
                  EUCLA_MOTEL        31.8S 128.9E    1836Z 11 APR
                  HOBART             43.3S 147.6E    1901Z 11 APR
                  DARWIN             12.1S 130.7E    1935Z 11 APR
 MYANMAR          CHEDUBA_ISLAND     18.9N  93.4E    1149Z 11 APR
                  CHEDUBA_ISLAND     18.9N  93.4E    1149Z 11 APR
                  PYINKAYAING        15.9N  94.3E    1150Z 11 APR
                  SITTWE             20.0N  92.9E    1226Z 11 APR
                  MERGUI             12.8N  98.4E    1316Z 11 APR
                  YANGON             16.5N  96.4E    1507Z 11 APR
 THAILAND         PHUKET              8.0N  98.2E    1118Z 11 APR
                  KO_PHRA_THONG       9.1N  98.2E    1223Z 11 APR
                  KO_TARUTAO          6.6N  99.6E    1256Z 11 APR
 MALDIVES         GAN                 0.6S  73.2E    1137Z 11 APR
                  MINICOV             8.3N  73.0E    1210Z 11 APR
                  MALE                4.2N  73.6E    1211Z 11 APR
 UNITED KINGDOM   DIEGO_GARCIA        7.3S  72.4E    1153Z 11 APR
 MALAYSIA         GEORGETOWN          5.4N 100.1E    1311Z 11 APR
                  PORT_DICKSON        2.5N 101.7E    1810Z 11 APR
 MAURITIUS        PORT_LOUIS         20.0S  57.3E    1455Z 11 APR
 REUNION          ST_DENIS           20.8S  55.2E    1512Z 11 APR
 SEYCHELLES       VICTORIA            4.5S  55.6E    1516Z 11 APR
 PAKISTAN         GWADAR             25.1N  62.4E    1536Z 11 APR
                  KARACHI            24.7N  66.9E    1644Z 11 APR
 SOMALIA          CAPE_GUARO         11.9N  51.4E    1539Z 11 APR
                  HILALAYA            6.4N  49.1E    1540Z 11 APR
                  MOGADISHU           2.0N  45.5E    1558Z 11 APR
                  KAAMBOONI           1.5S  41.9E    1623Z 11 APR
 OMAN             MUSCAT             23.9N  58.6E    1540Z 11 APR
                  SALALAH            16.9N  54.1E    1547Z 11 APR
                  DUQM               19.7N  57.8E    1556Z 11 APR
 MADAGASCAR       ANTSIRANANA        12.1S  49.5E    1544Z 11 APR
                  TOAMASINA          17.8S  49.6E    1551Z 11 APR
                  MANAKARA           22.2S  48.2E    1610Z 11 APR
                  MAHAJANGA          15.4S  46.2E    1653Z 11 APR
                  CAP_STE_MARIE      25.8S  45.2E    1713Z 11 APR
                  TOLIARA            23.4S  43.6E    1733Z 11 APR
 IRAN             GAVATER            25.0N  61.3E    1546Z 11 APR
 UAE              FUJAIRAH           25.1N  56.4E    1621Z 11 APR
 YEMEN            AL_MUKALLA         14.5N  49.2E    1626Z 11 APR
                  ADEN               13.0N  45.2E    1726Z 11 APR
 COMORES          MORONI             11.6S  43.3E    1644Z 11 APR
 BANGLADESH       CHITTAGONG         22.7N  91.2E    1651Z 11 APR
 TANZANIA         LINDI               9.8S  39.9E    1659Z 11 APR
                  DAR_ES_SALAAM       6.7S  39.4E    1732Z 11 APR
 MOZAMBIQUE       CABO_DELGADO       10.7S  40.7E    1701Z 11 APR
                  ANGOCHE            15.5S  40.6E    1720Z 11 APR
                  QUELIMANE          18.0S  37.1E    1841Z 11 APR
                  MAPUTO             25.9S  32.8E    1959Z 11 APR
                  BEIRA              19.9S  35.1E    2016Z 11 APR
 KENYA            MOMBASA             4.0S  39.7E    1706Z 11 APR
 CROZET ISLANDS   CROZET_ISLANDS     46.4S  51.8E    1733Z 11 APR
 KERGUELEN ISLAN  PORT_AUX_FRANCA    49.0S  69.1E    1815Z 11 APR
 SOUTH AFRICA     PRINCE_EDWARD_I    46.6S  37.6E    1907Z 11 APR
                  DURBAN             29.8S  31.2E    1910Z 11 APR
                  PORT_ELIZABETH     33.9S  25.8E    2006Z 11 APR
                  CAPE_TOWN          34.1S  18.0E    2109Z 11 APR
 SINGAPORE        SINGAPORE           1.2N 103.8E    2351Z 11 APR

MAJOR EARTHQUAKE (8.7M) STRIKES WEST COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA... TSUNAMI WATCH IN EFFECT

Earthquake Location









MAJOR EARTHQUAKE AT THE WEST COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA


****** 8.7M REPORTED BY USGC*********


*TSUNAMI WATCH IN EFFECT FOR MULTIPLE AREAS LIKE 


**** TSUNAMI GENERATION NOT CONFIRMED YET*****


EXPECTED TSUNAMI ARRIVAL TIMES BELOW



A TSUNAMI WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR INDONESIA / INDIA / SRI LANKA / AUSTRALIA / MYANMAR / THAILAND / MALDIVES / UNITED KINGDOM / MALAYSIA / MAURITIUS / REUNION / SEYCHELLES / PAKISTAN / SOMALIA / OMAN / MADAGASCAR / IRAN / UAE / YEMEN / COMORES / BANGLADESH / TANZANIA / MOZAMBIQUE / KENYA / CROZET ISLANDS / KERGUELEN ISLANDS / SOUTH AFRICA / SINGAPORE



 LOCATION         FORECAST POINT     COORDINATES     ARRIVAL TIME
 --------------------------------    ------------    ------------
 INDONESIA        SIMEULUE            2.5N  96.0E    0921Z 11 APR
                  BANDA_ACEH          5.5N  95.1E    0931Z 11 APR
                  SIBERUT             1.5S  98.7E    0941Z 11 APR
                  PADANG              0.9S 100.1E    1017Z 11 APR
                  BENGKULU            3.9S 102.0E    1038Z 11 APR
                  CILACAP             7.8S 108.9E    1205Z 11 APR
                  BANDAR_LAMPUNG      5.7S 105.3E    1213Z 11 APR
                  BALI                8.7S 115.3E    1253Z 11 APR
                  KUPANG             10.0S 123.4E    1338Z 11 APR
                  BELAWAN             3.8N  98.8E    1348Z 11 APR
                  BALI                8.7S 115.3E    1253Z 11 APR
 INDIA            GREAT_NICOBAR       7.1N  93.6E    0937Z 11 APR
                  LITTLE_ANDAMAN     10.7N  92.3E    1016Z 11 APR
                  PORT_BLAIR         11.9N  92.7E    1032Z 11 APR
                  NORTH_ANDAMAN      13.3N  92.6E    1052Z 11 APR
                  CHENNAI            13.4N  80.4E    1127Z 11 APR
                  KAKINADA           17.2N  82.7E    1205Z 11 APR
                  TRIVANDRUM          8.3N  76.9E    1208Z 11 APR
                  MANGALORE          13.3N  74.4E    1336Z 11 APR
                  BOMBAY             18.8N  72.6E    1608Z 11 APR
                  GULF_OF_KUTCH      22.7N  68.9E    1634Z 11 APR
 SRI LANKA        DONDRA_HEAD         5.9N  80.6E    1039Z 11 APR
                  TRINCOMALEE         8.7N  81.3E    1051Z 11 APR
                  COLOMBO             6.9N  79.8E    1120Z 11 APR
                  JAFFNA              9.9N  80.0E    1231Z 11 APR
 AUSTRALIA        COCOS_ISLAND       12.1S  96.7E    1045Z 11 APR
                  NORTH_WEST_CAPE    21.5S 113.9E    1314Z 11 APR
                  CAPE_INSPIRATIO    25.9S 113.0E    1413Z 11 APR
                  PERTH              32.0S 115.3E    1420Z 11 APR
                  AUGUSTA            34.3S 114.7E    1440Z 11 APR
                  GERALDTOWN         28.6S 114.3E    1459Z 11 APR
                  CAPE_LEVEQUE       16.1S 122.6E    1506Z 11 APR
                  ESPERANCE          34.0S 121.8E    1615Z 11 APR
                  KINGSTON_SOUTH_    37.0S 139.4E    1748Z 11 APR
                  HEARD_ISLAND       54.0S  73.5E    1802Z 11 APR
                  EUCLA_MOTEL        31.8S 128.9E    1836Z 11 APR
                  HOBART             43.3S 147.6E    1901Z 11 APR
                  DARWIN             12.1S 130.7E    1935Z 11 APR
 MYANMAR          CHEDUBA_ISLAND     18.9N  93.4E    1149Z 11 APR
                  CHEDUBA_ISLAND     18.9N  93.4E    1149Z 11 APR
                  PYINKAYAING        15.9N  94.3E    1150Z 11 APR
                  SITTWE             20.0N  92.9E    1226Z 11 APR
                  MERGUI             12.8N  98.4E    1316Z 11 APR
                  YANGON             16.5N  96.4E    1507Z 11 APR
 THAILAND         PHUKET              8.0N  98.2E    1118Z 11 APR
                  KO_PHRA_THONG       9.1N  98.2E    1223Z 11 APR
                  KO_TARUTAO          6.6N  99.6E    1256Z 11 APR
 MALDIVES         GAN                 0.6S  73.2E    1137Z 11 APR
                  MINICOV             8.3N  73.0E    1210Z 11 APR
                  MALE                4.2N  73.6E    1211Z 11 APR
 UNITED KINGDOM   DIEGO_GARCIA        7.3S  72.4E    1153Z 11 APR
 MALAYSIA         GEORGETOWN          5.4N 100.1E    1311Z 11 APR
                  PORT_DICKSON        2.5N 101.7E    1810Z 11 APR
 MAURITIUS        PORT_LOUIS         20.0S  57.3E    1455Z 11 APR
 REUNION          ST_DENIS           20.8S  55.2E    1512Z 11 APR
 SEYCHELLES       VICTORIA            4.5S  55.6E    1516Z 11 APR
 PAKISTAN         GWADAR             25.1N  62.4E    1536Z 11 APR
                  KARACHI            24.7N  66.9E    1644Z 11 APR
 SOMALIA          CAPE_GUARO         11.9N  51.4E    1539Z 11 APR
                  HILALAYA            6.4N  49.1E    1540Z 11 APR
                  MOGADISHU           2.0N  45.5E    1558Z 11 APR
                  KAAMBOONI           1.5S  41.9E    1623Z 11 APR
 OMAN             MUSCAT             23.9N  58.6E    1540Z 11 APR
                  SALALAH            16.9N  54.1E    1547Z 11 APR
                  DUQM               19.7N  57.8E    1556Z 11 APR
 MADAGASCAR       ANTSIRANANA        12.1S  49.5E    1544Z 11 APR
                  TOAMASINA          17.8S  49.6E    1551Z 11 APR
                  MANAKARA           22.2S  48.2E    1610Z 11 APR
                  MAHAJANGA          15.4S  46.2E    1653Z 11 APR
                  CAP_STE_MARIE      25.8S  45.2E    1713Z 11 APR
                  TOLIARA            23.4S  43.6E    1733Z 11 APR
 IRAN             GAVATER            25.0N  61.3E    1546Z 11 APR
 UAE              FUJAIRAH           25.1N  56.4E    1621Z 11 APR
 YEMEN            AL_MUKALLA         14.5N  49.2E    1626Z 11 APR
                  ADEN               13.0N  45.2E    1726Z 11 APR
 COMORES          MORONI             11.6S  43.3E    1644Z 11 APR
 BANGLADESH       CHITTAGONG         22.7N  91.2E    1651Z 11 APR
 TANZANIA         LINDI               9.8S  39.9E    1659Z 11 APR
                  DAR_ES_SALAAM       6.7S  39.4E    1732Z 11 APR
 MOZAMBIQUE       CABO_DELGADO       10.7S  40.7E    1701Z 11 APR
                  ANGOCHE            15.5S  40.6E    1720Z 11 APR
                  QUELIMANE          18.0S  37.1E    1841Z 11 APR
                  MAPUTO             25.9S  32.8E    1959Z 11 APR
                  BEIRA              19.9S  35.1E    2016Z 11 APR
 KENYA            MOMBASA             4.0S  39.7E    1706Z 11 APR
 CROZET ISLANDS   CROZET_ISLANDS     46.4S  51.8E    1733Z 11 APR
 KERGUELEN ISLAN  PORT_AUX_FRANCA    49.0S  69.1E    1815Z 11 APR
 SOUTH AFRICA     PRINCE_EDWARD_I    46.6S  37.6E    1907Z 11 APR
                  DURBAN             29.8S  31.2E    1910Z 11 APR
                  PORT_ELIZABETH     33.9S  25.8E    2006Z 11 APR
                  CAPE_TOWN          34.1S  18.0E    2109Z 11 APR
 SINGAPORE        SINGAPORE           1.2N 103.8E    2351Z 11 APR

Hyper Quiet Space Weather!!!

SEVERE SOLARWX
AKSHAY DEORAS
SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTER

300TH ARTICLE

*** THE EARTH FACING SIDE OF THE SUN IS BLANK AT PRESENT***
*** NO SUNSPOT ON THE EARTH FACING SIDE OF THE SUN***
*** DAILY SUNSPOT NO. AS LOW AS 24 TODAY***


The progress of Solar Cycle 24 had been satisfactory in the month of March especially due to the elevated activity due to Sunspot 1429. However the spaceweather has turned flat in April 






The March 2012 monthly sunspot no has been 64.2 as against the expected 75.8. However as compared to the Feb 2012 sunspot no which was 33.1 only there has been almost doubling in March!

With the present scenario, the April sunspot no is sure to be less depending on how the Sunspots form this
month. On the back side of the Sun, there are many sunspots and many are active! These sunspots shall rotate on the Earthside of the Sun in around a week from now and interesting space weather may be expected the next week so staty tuned for the updates!

 

Sunday, April 1, 2012

AKG LAUNCHES SEVERE SOLARWX PAGE

SELF UPDATING PAGE ON SPACE WEATHER PRODUCTS LAUNCHED ON AKG


SEVERE SOLARWX PAGE WILL PROVIDE REALTIME CONDITION SUCH AS SOLAR WIND,KP INDICES,REAL TIME IMAES OF SUN,CME,IMF






WHENEVER YOU ENTER THE BLOG, YOU WILL BE ASKED WHETHER YOU WANT TO VIEW THE REAL TIME CONDITIONS OR CHECK THE LATEST ARTICLES/FORECASTS ON THE BLOG. 


FOR VIEWING SPACE WEATHER DATA-


CLICK ON THE FIRST OPTION OF "CLICK HERE" WHICH WILL RE-DIRECT YOU TO SEVERE SOLARWX PAGE AND THEN CLICK ENTER


FOR VIEWING OTHER ARTICLES,SIMPLY CLICK ENTER WHICH WILL TAKE YOU TO THE MAIN PAGE OF THE BLOG




THE NEW DATAS ARE IN COLLABORATION WTH SWPC,SDO,STEREO 

Tuesday, March 13, 2012

NO GEOMAGNETIC STORMING EXPECTED AS MAJOR FORECAST ERRORS APPEARS. FAQ OF WHAT HAPPENED

SEVERE SOLARWX
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster

In a very disappointing event, for the first time in last two years of my forecasting, a scenarion like this has happened. The CME of 9th and 10th March has ditched all of the space weather forecasters including Space Weather Prediction Center for two times straight in a row!

The saga is now over and NO GEOMAGNETIC STORMING is expected as the anticipated CME of 10th March 2012 made an appearance in the form of G2 Geomagnetic Storm of 12th March 2012 which began with a Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse at 0843hrs GMT. I would like to clarity the entire scenario in the below FAQ

Q- Is any Geomagnetic Storming expected today (13th March) or tomorrow (14th March) from CME?
A. No, the anticipated CME(s) passed the Earth with the later one (10th March) producing a G2 Geomagnetic Storming on 12th March

Q. What happened with the 9th March CME?
A. The 9th March CME produced a very little deviation in the Magnetometers on 11th March. It produced a very minor (Around 10nT+) deviation at the ACE satellite and 22.1nT at Boulder at the peak

More can be found here -
http://akshaydeoras.blogspot.in/2012/03/mysterious-cme-hits-earth.html

Q. If the CME of 9th March striked on 11th March then why didn't Space Weather Prediction Center mentioned about it?

A. Its very surprising. Perhaps the deviations produced in the magnetic field or IMF were too minor for an alert. They should have done that!

Q. Did the CME of 10th March 2012 arrive BEFORE TIME?
A. Looking at the overall disturbance in the Magnetic field datas from ACE satellite, it appears that the CME arrived earlier than expected. It appeared 12hrs earlier than expected!

More can be found here-
http://akshaydeoras.blogspot.in/2012/03/cme-keeps-waiting-major-geomagnetic.html

Q. Why wasn't it discovered earlier that the G2 Geomagnetic Storm of 12th March was due to 10th March CME?

A. I blame the Space Weather Prediction Center for it. If they had updated about the 9th March CME impact earlier then the chance of revival or turning geo-effective of the 11th Mar CME hit would have been zero. We thought that the 11th March had a CME hit which I mentioned but the effect was negligible. So the G2 storm of 12th March was thought to be an after-effect of 9th Mar CME

This whole led to think that 10th March CME was on the way for 13th Mar collision!

Q. What does this chaos or sage reflect?
A. It reflects the present state of understanding and forecast ability. It challenges our understandings about the travelling of CME,their velocity and overall impact with the Earth


CME KEEPS WAITING! MAJOR GEOMAGNETIC STORM LIKELY TODAY

SEVERE SOLARWX
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster

The anticipated Coronal Mass Ejection of 10th March 2012 hasn't arrived! The CME which was expected to hit the Earth's magnetic field on night hours ( GMT) of 12th March hasn't reached the earth!

The 9th March CME which had arrived on 11th March producing no effect became "Geoeffective" yesterday which caused a short time G2 Geomagnetic Storm! There was a major debate whether the storming was due to late effects of 9th March CME or early effects of 10th March CME but looking at the datas from ACE satellite and the deflection at Space Weather Prediction Center,Boulder it seems that that was a reviving effect from 9th March event

The above plot from the ACE satellite depicts the geomagnetic sudden impulse of yesterday at around 0843UT which later followed by a Southward Bz produced a G2 storm
Auroras were reported in some parts of Australia,New Zealand with some ground currents in Norway!


Scenario now-
Right now it seems that the wait for the CME will continue for some more time today. SWPC has mentioned that they are expecting a Major Storming today

Here is what they have mentioned. STAY TUNED FOR THE UPDATES AS WE DO EXPECT THE CME TO HIT TODAY

BUT WHEN????


Top News of the Day:
2012-03-12 23:25 UTC  Continued Geomagnetic Storming Possible
Continued geomagnetic activity reaching the G3 (Strong) level is possible between now and the end of March 13 as the parade of recent coronal mass ejections affect Earth.  Meanwhile, the Solar Radiation Storm has decreased below the S1 (Minor) threshold and continues a slow decay toward background levels.  Region 1429 remains complex, but is showing signs of weakening.  No significant Radio Blackout events have been observed in the last 36 hours, so no further significant activity is currently expected after March 13

Monday, March 12, 2012

Space Weather Prediction Center finally agrees with Severe SolarWX forecast,Major Geomagnetic Storming likely on 13th March

SEVERE SOLARWX
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster

In a high level drama, the Space Weather Prediction Center called off the Geomagnetic Storming probability of 11th March today morning saying that geomagnetic storming conditions don't exist now!

The SPWC had initially expected the 9th March event generated CME to be a significant one causing a G3 level storm. However SSW, mentioned that at the most a G1 level storm will trigger;

However the momentum of CME was so low that it didn't produce any geomagnetic storming!

The Space Weather Prediction Center now has upgraded the chance of SEVERE GEOMAGNETIC STORMING on 13th March to as high as 60%

They are now expecting a G3 level storm! To err is human in nature so doesn't matter SPWC if the forecast went wrong!

The Forecast models continue to indicate a MAJOR CME heading towards collision! The CME is expected to arrive tonight ( GMT) and causing much of the action on 13th that is tomorrow!

Based on the estimates, Severe SOLARWX expects a MAJOR GEOMAGNETIC STORMING

The Geomagnetic Storm will be reaching a G3 level for sure on 13th March. Also the present S1 solar radiation storm is likely to be boosted as the bunch of elevated energy levels of protons hit the earth's magnetic field.

The IMF Bz polarity seems to be Northward at the geomagnetic sudden impulse and a slow start can be expected to the storming. The polarity will swing once the impulse takes place

The Bz polarity is always a deciding factor which has a very less scale of correct forecast

SEVERE SOLARWX enters print media


Today, Severe SolarWX forecast appeared in a leading Marathi newspaper of Central India i.e Tarun Bharat. The forecast has been for 13th march event. This has been a maiden space weather forecast published in any newspaper here as others are primarily reports. The forecast has been published in Marathi language. 


It can be seen at the top ! 


STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES

Sunday, March 11, 2012

Mysterious CME hits the earth?



SEVERE SOLARWX
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster

Has the 9th March event CME hit the earth??
The question seems to be coming up as datas from ACE satellite clearly indicates the geomagnetic sudden impulse shortly after 12PM GMT. However the Space Weather Prediction Center has not issued any Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse advisory ? The latest available on their website is


2012-03-11 15:07 UTC  Solar Radiation Storm Declining, Awaiting Geomagnetic Storm
The coronal mass ejection associated with the R2 (Moderate) Radio Blackout that occurred at 0353 UTC March 9 (10:53 p.m. EST March 8) was expected to cause more geomagnetic storming beginning early on March 11, with intensities likely to reach the G3 (Strong) level. That CME hasn’t arrived as early as predicted, so stay tuned for updates as the day progresses. The coronal mass ejection associated with the R2 (Moderate) Radio Blackout event from 1744 UTC March 10 (12:44 p.m. EST March 10) should start to affect Earth late on March 12 to early on March 13, with intensities lower than those observed with the events of last week; forecast specifics are still in work. Meanwhile, the Solar Radiation Storm continues its decay and is currently at the S1 (Minor) level. Region 1429 remains complex, but is showing signs of weakening. Updates here as conditions warrant.

This is surprising! The Magnetometer at Boulder,Colorado shows a strong variation in the H ( Northward ) component and D ( southward) component ( MAGNETIC SOUTH AND NORTH **) 
indicating that there has been an external applied,variational magnetic field which a Solar wind induced CME can generate

Further here is a gist of data available- 


Here you can observe that there is a deflection produced of maximum 22.1nT or K index of 3.1 suggesting a CME hit

Thus SSW CONFIRMS a CME hit! 

The IMF Bz vector initially had a South polarity ( 1600UT) but is turning North and hence again will affect the storming

In all, if a storming is produced then it shall not cross G1 level and definitely not G3 which I wonder why SWPC expects

Nevertheless, the CME of 10th Mar IS ALL SET TO MAKE A POWERFUL IMPACT ON EARLY PERIODS OF 13TH MARCH 2012 RESULTING IN STORMING ON 13,14TH ALSO

STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES!!


Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse at ACE spacecraft as 9th March CME arrives

SEVERE SOLARWX
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster


As was expected, the CME from 9th March 2012 M class event has arrived at the ACE spacecraft producing a very slow impact ( small deviation). The Impulse data is rising up ( Bt component ) reaching over 10nT

The IMF Bz is northwards now as was expected and hence initially geomagnetic storming is unlikely

STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES

Geomagnetic Storming expected today,Major one expected o 12th

SEVERE SOLARWX
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster

The M 6.3 Solar Flare of 9th Mar 2012 produced a Coronal Mass Ejection which is heading towards the Earth and is expected to land today. The initial estimates suggested that the CME was moving for an indirect collision with the Earth's Magnetosphere due to which the anticipated intensity was being considered as less. However the Space Weather Prediction Center in their recent update mentioned that they are expecting a G3 level storming!

However, the updated model analysis still shows that the momentum of the impact will be less and given the expected Northward polarity of Bz vector of IMF, the Geomagnetic Storming will have a weak start that is a G1 initially.

Moreover, SSW expects the storm to be a G1 or at the most a G2 storm. 

M 8.4 Solar Flare of 10th Mar 2012


On 1715 UT,10th Mar the sunspot 1429 produced a M 8.4 Solar Flare. There was a Major Coronal Mass Ejection associated with the flare easily noted by the STEREO Spacecraft. 


SEE THE VIDEO HERE 












THE CME IS A FAST MOVING CME AND HAS HIGH MOMENTUM. 

THE CME FROM THIS EVENT IS EXPECTED TO HIT THE EARTH'S MAGNETIC FIELD ON 12TH MARCH 2012 I.E TOMORROW NIGHT GMT 

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE GEOMAGNETIC STORMING WITH LEVELS EASILY ELEVATING TO G3


MEGA-GEOMAGNETIC STORM

THE EARTH'S MAGNETIC FIELD IN RECENT HAS RECEIVED MULTIPLE SHOCKWAVES DUE TO MANY CME AND IN CONTINUATION IS EXPECTED TO GET A DOUBLE-HIT

THE FIRST CME FROM 9TH MARCH EVENT WILL ARRIVE TODAY WITH STORMING BEGINNING FROM NIGHT GMT AND WILL DECLINE OR CONTINUE TILL 12TH MARCH 2012

AFTER THE EVENT RELAXES, CME FROM 10TH MARCH EVENT WILL HIT BY EVENING OR NIGHT WHICH WILL BE STRONGER THAN THE 9TH MARCH EVENT

THUS A MEGA-GEOMAGNETIC STORMING WILL UNFURL AND AURORAS AGAIN WILL BE SEEN IN THE MID-LATITUDES AND THE POLAR REGIONS


ONGOING SOLAR RADIATION STORM- 

THE HISTORIC SOLAR RADIATION STORM IS FINALLY DECLINING AND IS AT THE S1 LEVEL!

I AM STILL VERIFYING WHETHER THE 10TH MARCH EVENT DID SEND SOME PROTONS OR NOT. IT NORMALLY DOESN'T TAKE SO MUCH TIME FOR PROTONS TO ARRIVE

HOWEVER, AS THE CME FROM M8.4 FLARE ARRIVES, THERE WILL BE AN UPSURGE IN THE PROTON FLUX AND HENCE REVIVING THE SOLAR RADIATION STORM!


STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES!!!

Saturday, March 10, 2012

Geomagnetic Storm dissipates,Minor Storm expected on 11th Mar 2012

SEVERE SOLARWX
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster

The anticipated storm of the year produced a classic G3 level Geomagnetic Storm which could have reached the G4 level but the IMF Bz was having Northerly Polarity for a prolonged time spoiling the momentum of CME impact.

The Geomagnetic Storm produced significant auroras in the United States also where people reported them from states like North Dakota,Wisconsin, Minnesota.

The Solar Radiation storm which hit the S3 level is declining and is now at S2 level which may be the Biggest Storm in perhaps last 5 years!


Estimates suggest that the Radiation Storm would be over in around next 24 hours!! 






The Sun Now!




The Sunspot 1429 is decaying now and having stable magnetic orientation. 
It seems that it may not be producing another X class flare however SWPC considers a slight chance. 
The sunspot is still capable of producing Moderate M class flares to low C class flares. 

The overall earth facing side of the Sun has a coronal hole on the extreme eastern side of the Sun from which a solar wind will be flowing when it turns geo-effective. 

There is one interesting sunspot rotating now on the North-eastern limb. This sunspot ( may be named as AR 1431) posses less threat now but may become favorable for producing high end C and even M class flare in the next week onwards..

Approaching CME 


As was mentioned in the previous post, the Solar Flare of March 9 produced a CME which is heading towards the Earth. The WSA-ENLIL model indicates the approaching CME towards the Earth ( seen as a green dot) from the sun ( yellow dot at center). 

The plasma density at the impact which will be around morning of 11th Mar 2012 GMT that is tomorrow shall be around 15/cm^3 with the Radial Velocity of around 700Km/sec. 
The overall momentum from the impact seems to be low at this level and will just sparkel a G1 Geomagnetic Storm. However as seen from the above Goddard Space Flight Center analysis, the IMF Bz polarity seems to be Northwards which will lead to a weak start to the storming and revive when much of CME would have passed. Hence SSW expects a weak G1 Geomagnetic Storm on 11th March and may expect on 12th but with less chance


Severe SolarWX to enter print media!

I am happy to announce that the Severe SolarWX will be making an entry in the print media with the first and exclusive Space Weather Forecasts coming in Newspapers in India. Not seen usually, for the first time people of my hometown Nagpur,India will get to read about the Space Weather events especially forecasts which will be issued in Marathi language. However I will be posting a link for the readers knowing Marathi language who can avail the forecasts through the E-paper 

The forecasts also will be coming in English on The Hitavada newspaper on Tuesdays ( when there is a space weather event) and in Tarun Bharat Paper ( Marathi) language. 

This service is expected to start from around 20th March 2012. 


STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES

Friday, March 9, 2012

G3 Geomagnetic Storming in progress,another CME heads towards the Earth

SEVERE SOLARWX
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster

The anticipated G3 Geomagnetic Storming is in full swing now with the Kp index at Kp=7. As was mentioned in the last post, favored Southward Bz helped the storming.


AURORAS ARE EXPECTED IN MID LATITUDE REGIONS OF BOTH THE HEMISPHERE AS WELL AS POLAR REGIONS. 


PEOPLE CAN SEND THEIR PHOTOS AT akshaydeoras@hotmail.com WHICH WILL BE POSTED ON THE BLOG WITH DUE CREDIT .


The Bz IMF is turning Northwards again and hence the G3 level may be the zenith of the event

Coronal Mass Ejection from AR 1429 on 9th March 2012

As mentioned in the last post, a strong M 6.3 Solar Flare was released from AR 1429 which hurled a Coronal Mass Ejection as seen from the animation captured by the STEREO spacecraft

THE CME IS HEADING TOWARDS THE EARTH! THE FORECAST MODELS ARE ESTIMATING ITS INTENSITY AND TIMINGS BUT MAY REACH THE EARTH ON 10-11TH MARCH 2012


MEANWHILE,THE SOLAR RADIATION STORM HAS DECREASED FROM S3 TO S2 LEVEL


STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES



Sunspot 1429 bangs with a M5 class Solar Flare

SEVERE SOLARWX
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster

The Hyper-active sunspot region AR 1429 has produced another M5 Solar Flare just a while ago and sent ionospheric disturbance due to X-ray emissions thus causing a R1 Radio Blackout







Stay tuned for updates


Akshay Deoras
Severe Earth & Space Weather Forecaster,Astrophysics article writer.

Web-
www.akshaydeoras.blogspot.com
www.metdweather.blogspot.com
        www.scribd.com/akshaydeoras



Thursday, March 8, 2012

IMF turning Southwards, Strong Geomagnetic Storming favored!

SEVERE SOLARWX
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster

The Strong Geomagnetic Impulse i.e CME striking the Earth didn't produce a much elevated storming as was expected as the Inter-planetary Magnetic Field (IMF) was at North polarity. A much of annihilation to the CME impact is caused by Northward IMF polarity which opposes the Geomagnetic Storming. However as the IMF's Bz vector turns southward, the surface North to South geomagnetic field of the earth and the opposite oriented IMF reconnects and transfer of energy takes place which enables pouring in of the solar wind,subsequent triggering of Auroras and Geomagnetic Storming. 

Since the total momentum of the impact was high, it can be expected that the ongoing G1 Geomagnetic Storm will elevate to G2 or even G3 depending on the total tenure for which IMF 's Bz vector trips South! 



As seen from the above ACE plot, the second plot from top ( represented in yellow) represents the Bz component of the IMF which when the CME impacted ( See for 11 GMT) elevated to the North! 

The Bz is now nearly 0 or turning Southwards which will improve overall Geomagnetic Activity

Stay tuned for alerts!




Akshay Deoras
Severe Earth & Space Weather Forecaster,Astrophysics article writer.

Web-
www.akshaydeoras.blogspot.com
www.metdweather.blogspot.com
        www.scribd.com/akshaydeoras

Strong Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse!! Strong CME hits ACE satellite

SEVERE SOLARWX
AKSHAY DEORAS
SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTER

One of the strongest Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse I have ever seen has just hit the ACE spacecraft ( CME hit) and the shockwave will hit the Earth's Magnetic Field very shortly ( about half hour from now)

The deviation produced is 37.7 nT and the Bz 35.6 nT north

The present IMF is in north and hence solar wind might not pour in now!!

We are monitoring the situation LIVE at Severe SolarWX Hq,Nagpur

SIGNIFICANT GEOMAGNETIC STORMING POSSIBLE DUE TO X 5.4 SOLAR FLARE

SEVERE SOLARWX
AKSHAY DEORAS
SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTER

HISTORIC GEOMAGNETIC STORMING LIKELY. ALERT FOR HYPER-ACTIVE SPACE WEATHER

The Mega Flare of X 5.4 from Sunspot 1429 on 7th March 2012 early period GMT has hurled a very massive Coronal Mass Ejection. In the last post,datas were suspicious about the amount of CME released and coupled with no animation available from SOHO lead to miscalculation. 

Right now it seems that a very major CME is heading towards the Earth. The analyst at Goddard Space Flight Center which also recalculated CME intensity indicate the approaching CME


Considering the intensity of the shockwave ( estimated) the Space Weather Prediction Center estimates a G3 Geomagnetic Storming which Severe Solar WX AGREES WITH IT

If the intensity is really too high then we may even get a G4 Geomagnetic Storm!

The Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse is being expected in the afternoon hours ( GMT) of today,8th March 2012 and the storming shall begin into night hours of today ( 8th March),persisting for tomorrow ( 9th March also)

THUS THIS GEOMAGNETIC STORMING IS GOING TO PROMISE AURORAS FOR MID LATITUDE REGIONS ALSO INCLUDING HIGH LATITUDE AREAS

PEOPLE MUST WATCH OUT FOR THEM!

SOLAR RADIATION STORM UPDATE-

The S3 Solar Radiation Storm is continuing now with more than 12hrs of S3 category. The Proton flux indicates that the the overall proton number per unit area unit time and unit steradian has enhanced to over 1000 protons ( 10^3+) 

The Solar Protons are expected to continue for today ( 8th March also)

Photos of Sunspot 1429

The sunspot 1429 which has become the star of attraction was captured by me today morning from Nagpur,India using an ordinary camera of 14.1 megapixel




STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES!!!

Wednesday, March 7, 2012

Solar Radiation Storm Reaches S3

SEVERE SOLARWX
AKSHAY DEORAS
SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTER

As was expected by me just a short while ago,the solar radiation storm has reached a classic S3 level.
The S3 level Radiation Storm has potential effect such as Biological Hazards like increased radiation exposure to people in high altitude and latitude aircrafts etc..

Stay tuned for updates

Hyperactivity on the Sun!

SEVERE SOLARWX
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster

The Hyper-active Sunspot 1429 has hurled another Very Major Solar Flare X 5.4 shortly after 12AM GMT,7th March 2012



The X5.4 Solar Flare emission took place beginning at 0002UTC reaching peak 0024UTC and ending at 0040UTC!



NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center also mentioned a X1.3 Solar Flare shortly after the X 5.4 at 0120UTC.Thus TWO STRAIGHT HIGH END SOLAR FLARES


The X-ray flux reported a sharp peak shortly after 12AM or 0000UTC.

After the solar flare got released, a R3 Radio Blackout was experienced on the sunlit side of the earth which affected largely the High frequency communication as can be seen from the above image of D-RAP

CORONAL MASS EJECTION- 
Its generally associated with such high class Solar Flares. The datas from STEREO spacecraft are indicating that there has been a MODERATE Coronal Mass Ejection released from this region after the Solar Flare was emitted. 


Though its for the first time in so many years that on Visual observation, it does appear that not a significant CME was hurled after the flare. Even the analyst at Goddard Space Flight Center predicting not a major CME release from it which supports my visual observation through datas for STEREO. 




Here is below what the models are indicating about-





The CME hence shall give a minor blow to the Earth on late period of 9th March 2012 into morning hours of 10th March 2012 GMT.. I don't expect a significant storming from it

Meanwhile, the reports from previous activities of the Sun have appeared today in the form of a G2 Geomagnetic Storm ( MODERATE) due to March 4 2012 M class flare from the sun with the KP index reaching as 6






SOLAR RADIATION STORM 


The X 5.4 Solar Flare from today's early morning flare also gave a significant boost to the protons which got elevated in terms of their energies and hence a Solar Radiation Storm of S2 intensity has been set. The datas from the Proton Flux are depicting an increasing trend and hence a high end S2 Solar Radiation Storm which is being witnessed now shall continue for a more while!




Forecast-


More X class and M class Solar Flares are expected from the region 1429 which is over 4 times the size of the earth. 


The space weather is expected to be ACTIVE mainly Solar Radiation Storm and Geomagnetic Storm 


ALERT_ 
Sunspot 1429 is turing GEO-EFFECTIVE AND HENCE IS LIKELY TO AFFECT THE EARTH's Space Weather significantly!





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