Article: Guest from the Cosmos in Vidarbha (The Hitavada,5th June 2012)

There was a Meteorite shower around Nagpur region (Referred as Vidarbha) on 22nd May 2012 afternoon. People heard the explosion sounds in the afternoon especially in a wedge area around 100-200kms from Nagpur city.

Surprisingly, an earthquake measuring 2.1M on the Richter Scale was recorded 30km NE of Akola which is near to Nagpur.

The article thus explains the basic difference between a meteorite,meteoroid and meteror in a very simple and illustrative way. Also I have investigated whether the Earthquake was caused to the impact or not (As a few meteorites had produced Earthquakes in the past)

The article was Co-Authored by Me,AKGs Aluth Fian and Mr.Sandeep Shirkhedkar.

I thank them for their support

Times of India interview (20th August 2012)

I was interviewed recently by the reputed newspaper Times of India at Nagpur. I was asked about my work and matters like why I chose to do a BS by going against the stream and why do people opt for engineering more than B.S

It was published in The Times of India,Nagpur on 20th Aug 2012

Article: Ek Mayan Mein Do Fermion??? ( The Hitavada,21st Aug 2012)

General Factorial Formula

Alutsyah Luthfian | Create Your Badge

General Factorial Formula:

\[x\underbrace {!!...!}_n = x\left( {x - n} \right)\left( {x - 2n} \right) \cdot \cdot \cdot a\]

a is the smallest integer, in which $a - n = 0$ or negative numbers.

2012 Venus Transit from Nagpur,India

SPECTACLES IN THE UNIVERSE!

 THE HITAVADA,NAGPUR ON 1ST MAY 2012


Here is a view of the latest article titled as " Spectacles in the Universe" which was published in the 1st May 2012 edition of The Hitavada newspaper. The article is on the very basics of gravitational lensing and its analogy to a person wearing specs on the Earth. The article has been co-authored by myself ( Akshay Deoras) and Prof.Shashikumar Chitre ( Dr S.M Chitre) who is Professor Emeritus at the Centre for Excellence in Basic Sciences at Mumbai. 


Prof.Chitre has many years experience in the field of Gravitational Lensing and known for his joint work with Prof.Jayant V Narlikar ( IUCAA) of proposing "The apparent Superluminal Motion in Quasars through Gravitational Lensing" in 1978. 

The idea of writing this article generated in my mind a few days ago ignited by the Public Lecture by Prof.Jayant V Narlikar a few days ago in Nagpur. The article is purposively titled as Spectacles in the Universe as a comparison is made between the gravitational lens and the spectacles of a person which is a convex lens basically.

Following Keywords shall assist the readers to understand the topic-

General Theory of Relativity- Proposed by Albert Einstein in 1916 explains the relation between the Space and Time referred as Space Time with Gravitation. The theory explains how a gravitational mass influence the space-time in the universe consisting of Space-Time Fabrics causing curvatures in the Space-Time called as Space Time Curvature. The theory also proposed that a ray of light will be influenced by this bending of space time causing the light to travel a geodesic path.

Quasar- Quasar stands for Quasi-Stellar Radio Source is a very compact form of the Galactic Nuclei ( roughly the center of galaxy) known as an AGN ( Active Galactic Nuclei). Quasars are being studied and are known to be powered by the accretion ( falling in) of material such as interstellar gas etc. in a black hole ( Supermassive BlackHole) at the centers of Galaxy. Thus mechanism produces a source which generates tremendous emissions especially across the Radio and Visible Spectrum. A single quasar can outshine an entire galaxy.


Einstein Cross,Einstein Ring,Einstein Arc- These are the names given to a specific shaped images of a distant quasar mostly influenced by a gravitational lens like high mass galaxies. 


Extra-solar planet- known as exoplanets which are orbiting distant stars in their respective star-planet system. Its a classical case of Gravitational Microlensing where as mentioned below images ( virtual or real) of the sources aren't produced by there are changes in the intensity of light coming from the source ( similar to astronomical transit). A major difference between astronomical transit and a result of Gravitational Microlensing is that in the case of a transit, an object ( say any heavenly body appearing smaller than the source star) passes infront of the source and hence an observer viewing in the same plane and same axis notices a dim in the light from the source. In the case of Gravitational Microlensing, a star can even pass infront of the source and due to the lensing, the light of the source instead of dimming magnifies... 

Credits-
Prof.S M Chitre
Prof. Jayant V Narlikar
Vikas Vaidya ( The Hitavada)

Mineralogy at A Glance

readers, i'm sorry for no pics. Made it in accordance to April 19, 2012 Mineralogy test.

Introduction

Hi readers! This time I wanna talk about mineralogy, uhm, a bit. In geophysics studies, minerals is a speaking stone. It tells us how was a layer of stone formed, what it should countain, and how old is it. A mineral is not eternal; the example being olivine. Olivine is a mineral that formed deep in the basaltic magma chamber. This green, transparent and beautiful mineral is hard. Beside its hardness, when it is put in the river, it would oxidize into another mineral called iddingsite, with different chemical composition than olivine. Another example being graphite that is compressed and heated near earth mantle, after which it changes into diamond. What making minerals ephemeral is simply the geologic processes - it changes the position of minerals in the Earth. For minerals, changing of position also means changing of thermodynamic condition and physical treatment. An igneous stone blasted by volcano, sooner or later would be carried into sea. In the sea, rock powder soon turned into layers of sediment rocks because of pressure brought by water weight. Then the plate tectonic mechanism drive the sediment to the trench and here the sediments are pressed as much as several gigapascals into metamorphic rocks. If lucky, some of the metamorphic rock is lifted again to the earth surface, creating mounts of marbles. If not, it melt again in the astenosphere, becoming magma and repeat the cycle.

How Does Minerals Form ?

Minerals are natural things, so diamonds produced at factory, instead of having near-original diamond qualities, is not called mineral. Because mineral is natural, so its forming process is always natural (not man-made). And also, differ crystal and mineral. We can grow mineral's crystal in laboratory, but we can not call that crystal as 'mineral'. Also, a volcanic lava which cools fast can not make their mineral into crystals - that's why we see igneous rock as black or gray. A black volcanic stone consist mostly of hornblende mineral while the grey one may have more mica or orthoclase mineral content.
Minerals are formed by following ways:

1. Evaporation from solution.
2. Gas deposition.
3. Crystalization.
4. Growing in solid substance.
5. Chemical reaction between two different phases.

Explanation below:

1. Evaporation from Solution
When seawater is flowing into shallow evaporation ponds at morning, it will be heated by sun to a temperature possible for water molecule to break off connection with Na⁺ and Cl^- and fly away to the air. After Na⁺ and Cl^- ion break up with water, they will connect each other again to make NaCl (Halite mineral, common salt). If sea level recedes, more halite is deposited on land, creating salt pan. Sediments may bury the salt pan and geologic process fold that salt layer, because of its elasticity the salt layer may turn into a salt dome and mined by man as rock salt. Another example is calcite in caves, travertine stairs, or blotch of iron rust lining your tap in garden (that iron rust might not coming from your oxidizing tap but from acidic ground water that contain so much Fe²⁺ ion).

2. Gas deposition
While volcanic gases out from an erupting volcano, some of its content directly deposit into crystal. The simplest exapmle is sulphur. The deposition of sulphur is reasonable after seeing its phase diagram. Another kind of gas deposition may be occured deep in magma chamber, when bubbles of gas deep from astenosphere enter it and stick with magma chamber's outer stone roof. When sticking with the magma chamber's roof, some mineral in the gas deposited there.
3. Crystalization
In mineralogy, the term crystallization refers to magma or lava crystalizing when it reaches a spesific crystallization temperature. The magma, liquid form of igneous rock in the depth of earth's crust, crystalization process is so slow that the mineral there can grow into amazing sizes. Why so slow? What makes it slow is because the temperature of magma decreases slowly. The effect is it can maintain a spesific crystalization temperature for a very long time, say it could be hundreds of years. Lava is magma that reaches the earth's surface. Some lava cool fast and some slow, the faster it get cools, the smaller is the crystal size. Obsidian, a stone resulted from fastest cooling lava, has no crystal structure yet it have a vitreous (glassy) look. Andesite, another igneous rock, cools slower; the temperature of its parent lava may be as high as 700^o C 2 weeks after the eruption ceased. The effect is andesite's mineral can be barely seen by naked eye. The slowest cooling magma, deep beneath earth surface, producing pegmatite. Minerals composing pegmatite is so big that we can analyze them one by one.
4. Growing in solid substance
This process is known to metamorphic stones. When a sedimentary or igneous stone is buried deep in earth's crust by means of geologic processes, it would face tremendous amount of heat and torturing gigapascal pressure. This coupled torment mechanism drive the molecules of rock mad. That mad molecules soon adapt to that condition (they surely can go nowhere :-D ) by reconstructing their chemical bond. When they reconstructing, it is the time when a new crystal is grow within the old one.
5. Chemical reaction between two different phases
When a solid mineral is exposed to some gases or liquid, some or all atom composing that mineral would be exchanged to that gas/liquid. This kind of chemical reaction surely resulted in new mineral with different chemical composition. For example, see the aforementioned olivine case. The hotter the reaction place, the faster it get done -> the concepts of activation energy of reaction.

So the conclusion is, mineral formation is ruled by the change of temperature or pressure surrounding the mineral. In the case of gas deposition and evaporation, the pressure contributing there is atmospheric pressure.
All mineral is starting as a small 3D molecule called nuclei. When surrounding temperature and pressure is suitable for the nuclei, the nuclei started to attract other atom possible for binding with it. The amount of possible atom + speed of temperature change + room provided in the system (remember, there are so many similar nuclei sharing limited place together) determine the shape of mineral. If the room is large, temperature change is slow and possible atom is many, a mineral can grow into a huge, perfectly shaped one.

Types of Mineral

In the earth, there are more than 4000 mineral. Broadly speaking, the 4000 mineral is divided into two main groups, the silicate and non silicate type. Further, the silicate type is divided into six group based on its molecular structure:

1. Nesosilicates
Silicate minerals composed of separated, alone SiO₄ molecule.
2. Sorosilicates
Silicate minerals composed of paired two molecules of Si₂O₇ connected at one oxygen atom.
3. Inosilicates
Divided again into single chain inosilicates and double chain inosilicates. Single chain inosilicates are silicate minerals composed of lines of Si_nO_3n connected at two oxygen atom. The double chain one is simply two opposing single chain connected together.
4. Phyllosilicates
Chains of inosilicates connected to its neighbors, creating a vast layer of silicate molecules. Each layer is connected to another layer via metallic ions between them.
5. Cyclosilicates
In this type of mineral, silicate molecule making a closed structure like triangle, square, or hexagonal. Ratio of Silicon versus Oxygen is 1:3.
6. Tectosilicates
Tectosilicate mineral has wireframe molecular structure; I mean that every silicate molecule bond tight with the other silicate molecule without specific structure, so that tectosilicate can resist weathering and other chemical reaction better.

About 64% of our crust is composed by silicate minerals. About 92% of mineral found in this earth is silicate type.
The other non silicate mineral is divided into 8 groups:

Mineral Group	Example Mineral	Picture	How People Use Them
Oxides	Hematite (Fe2O3)		Ore of iron
Sulfides	Pyrite (FeS2)		Known as fool’s gold
Sulfates	Gypsum (CaSO4 (+2H2O))		Used to make plaster
Halides	Halite (NaCl)		Table salt
Carbonates	Calcite (CaCO3)		Used to make cement
Phosphates	Natrophosphate (Na7(PO4)2F.19H2O)		Collection
Borates	Ulexite (NaCa[B5O6(OH)6].5H2O)		Natural Fiber Optic
Native Elements	Sulfur(S)		An ingredient of drugs and chemicals

NATURE SPARES INDIAN OCEAN! TSUNAMI WATCH LIFTED

**** TSUNAMI WATCH LIFTED FROM ALL THE AREAS OF THE INDIAN OCEAN***

**** UNCERTAINTY EXSIST WHETHER THERE WAS A TSUNAMI IN THAILAND ****

**** MULTIPLE LOW INTENSITY AFTERSHOCKS REPORTED AT OFFSHORE WEST COAST OF NORTH SUMATRA***

AKG Seismology Team-

A Major Sigh of Relief!! The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center has lifted the TSUNAMI WATCH from all the areas where it was issued- 

As per the datas from PTWC, A maximum recorded Tsunami height was 3.5ft at Meulaboh,Indonesia. Here is the report- 

MEASUREMENTS OR REPORTS OF TSUNAMI WAVE ACTIVITY

 GAUGE LOCATION        LAT   LON    TIME        AMPL         PER
 -------------------  ----- ------  -----  ---------------  -----
 MALE MV               4.2N  73.5E  1223Z   0.19M /  0.6FT  06MIN
 GAN MV                0.7S  73.2E  1212Z   0.03M /  0.1FT  48MIN
 HANIMAADHOO MV        6.8N  73.2E  1235Z   0.25M /  0.8FT  06MIN
 PADANG ID             1.0S 100.4E  1208Z   0.09M /  0.3FT  34MIN
 KO TAPHAO NOI TH      7.8N  98.4E  1143Z   0.05M /  0.2FT  06MIN
 ENGGANO ID            5.3S 102.3E  1104Z   0.12M /  0.4FT  04MIN
 TRINCONMALEE LK       8.6N  81.2E  1129Z   0.06M /  0.2FT  16MIN
 TELUKDALAM ID         0.6N  97.8E  1044Z   0.22M /  0.7FT  14MIN
 COCOS ISLAND AU      12.1S  96.9E  1102Z   0.08M /  0.3FT  18MIN
 SABANG ID             5.8N  95.3E  1010Z   0.36M /  1.2FT  06MIN
 MEULABOH ID           4.1N  96.1E  1007Z   1.06M /  3.5FT  12MIN
 DART 23401            8.9N  88.5E  0956Z   0.03M /  0.1FT  06MIN

 LAT  - LATITUDE (N-NORTH, S-SOUTH)
 LON  - LONGITUDE (E-EAST, W-WEST)
 TIME - TIME OF THE MEASUREMENT (Z IS UTC IS GREENWICH TIME)
 AMPL - TSUNAMI AMPLITUDE MEASURED RELATIVE TO NORMAL SEA LEVEL.
        IT IS ...NOT... CREST-TO-TROUGH WAVE HEIGHT.
        VALUES ARE GIVEN IN BOTH METERS(M) AND FEET(FT).
 PER  - PERIOD OF TIME IN MINUTES(MIN) FROM ONE WAVE TO THE NEXT.

However as was mentioned by AKG, Tsunami wave was generated and it reached places like Maldives,Thailand,Australia,Sri Lanka parts ( shown in PINK) in above region in additions to Indonesia.

However at these areas excluding Indonesia region not more than 1 feet of Tsunami wave was reported. The maximum was 1.06M at Meulaboh,Indonesia for 12min at 1007hrs UTC

Disaster preparedness was in full swing across 28 nations including India where people where forced to evacuate areas in Andaman and Nicobar Islands

Its obvious that a significant Tsunami was generated but location remains uncertain!

As of now, Multiple aftershocks have been reported around the epicenter region as shown by the below image

Above- Each Square represents an Earthquake ( or aftershock) The two BIG BLUE SQUARES are the first earthquake (8.6M) and the aftershock of 8.2M... 

THE BIG QUESTION- WHY THERE WAS NO DESTRUCTIVE TSUNAMI??

AKG's Earthquake Expert Aluth Fian informed that this Earthquake was caused due to a transform fault which rarely generate tsunami, because tsunami is mainly resulted from height change dz -> connection to wave equation. 

Thus the plates had more horizontal movement than vertical and hence NO SIGNIFICANT Tsunami was generated. If it hadn't been the Transform Fault responsible then a significant Tsunami would had generated and quite similar to 26th Dec 2004 Event.. 

Aluth Fian shall update on the science behind this soon!

POWERFUL AFTERSHOCK HITS WEST COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA

AKG SEISMOLOGY-

*** POWERFUL AFTERSHOCK HITS WEST COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA***
*** USGC REPORTS 8.2M***




A STRONG AFTERSHOCK HAS BEEN REPORTED AT 0.773°N, 92.452°E 


AT 10:43:09 UTC

AS OF NOW, TSUNAMI IS HEADING TOWARDS THE THAILAND COAST

*************************************************************************************************************************************

UPDATED INFORMATION FROM PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER IS INDICATING A STRONGER TSUNAMI WAVE THAN THE PREVIOUS HITING INDONESIA COAST

TSUNAMI BULLETIN NUMBER 004
PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER/NOAA/NWS
ISSUED AT 1054Z 11 APR 2012

THIS BULLETIN IS FOR ALL AREAS OF THE INDIAN OCEAN.

... AN INDIAN-OCEAN-WIDE TSUNAMI WATCH IS IN EFFECT ...

... A MAJOR AFTERSHOCK OCCURRED AT 11:43Z WITH MAGNITUDE 8.3 ...

A TSUNAMI WATCH IS STILL IN EFFECT FOR

 INDONESIA / INDIA / AUSTRALIA / SRI LANKA / MYANMAR / THAILAND /
 MALDIVES / UNITED KINGDOM / MALAYSIA / MAURITIUS / REUNION /
 SEYCHELLES / OMAN / PAKISTAN / SOMALIA / MADAGASCAR / IRAN /
 UAE / YEMEN / COMORES / MOZAMBIQUE / KENYA / TANZANIA /
 CROZET ISLANDS / BANGLADESH / KERGUELEN ISLANDS / SOUTH AFRICA /
 SINGAPORE

THIS BULLETIN IS ISSUED AS ADVICE TO GOVERNMENT AGENCIES.  ONLY
NATIONAL AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT AGENCIES HAVE THE AUTHORITY TO MAKE
DECISIONS REGARDING THE OFFICIAL STATE OF ALERT IN THEIR AREA AND
ANY ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN IN RESPONSE.

AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS

 ORIGIN TIME -  0839Z 11 APR 2012
 COORDINATES -   2.3 NORTH   93.1 EAST
 LOCATION    -  OFF W COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA
 MAGNITUDE   -  8.7

MEASUREMENTS OR REPORTS OF TSUNAMI WAVE ACTIVITY

 GAUGE LOCATION        LAT   LON    TIME        AMPL         PER
 -------------------  ----- ------  -----  ---------------  -----
 TELUKDALAM ID         0.6N  97.8E  0952Z   0.15M /  0.5FT  08MIN
 SABANG ID             5.8N  95.3E  1010Z   0.36M /  1.2FT  06MIN
 MEULABOH ID           4.1N  96.1E  1007Z   1.06M /  3.5FT  12MIN
 DART 23401            8.9N  88.5E  0956Z   0.03M /  0.1FT  06MIN
 SABANG ID             5.8N  95.3E  0956Z   0.31M /  1.0FT  08MIN

 LAT  - LATITUDE (N-NORTH, S-SOUTH)
 LON  - LONGITUDE (E-EAST, W-WEST)
 TIME - TIME OF THE MEASUREMENT (Z IS UTC IS GREENWICH TIME)
 AMPL - TSUNAMI AMPLITUDE MEASURED RELATIVE TO NORMAL SEA LEVEL.
        IT IS ...NOT... CREST-TO-TROUGH WAVE HEIGHT.
        VALUES ARE GIVEN IN BOTH METERS(M) AND FEET(FT).
 PER  - PERIOD OF TIME IN MINUTES(MIN) FROM ONE WAVE TO THE NEXT.

 NOTE - DART MEASUREMENTS ARE FROM THE DEEP OCEAN AND THEY
        ARE GENERALLY MUCH SMALLER THAN WOULD BE COASTAL
         MEASUREMENTS AT SIMILAR LOCATIONS.

EVALUATION

 SEA LEVEL READINGS INDICATE A TSUNAMI WAS GENERATED. IT MAY
 ALREADY HAVE BEEN DESTRUCTIVE ALONG SOME COASTS.

 BASED ON THESE DATA THE THREAT CONTINUES FOR ALL COASTAL AREAS OF
 THE INDIAN OCEAN. FOR THOSE AREAS - WHEN NO MAJOR WAVES HAVE
 OCCURRED FOR AT LEAST TWO HOURS AFTER THE ESTIMATED ARRIVAL TIME
 OR DAMAGING WAVES HAVE NOT OCCURRED FOR AT LEAST TWO HOURS THEN
 LOCAL AUTHORITIES CAN ASSUME THE THREAT IS PASSED. DANGER TO
 BOATS AND COASTAL STRUCTURES CAN CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL HOURS DUE
 TO RAPID CURRENTS.  AS LOCAL CONDITIONS CAN CAUSE A WIDE
 VARIATION IN TSUNAMI WAVE ACTION THE ALL CLEAR DETERMINATION MUST
 BE MADE BY LOCAL AUTHORITIES.

TSUNAMI GENERATES IN THE INDIAN OCEAN!

AKG SEISMOLOGY-

*** WATER RECEDS IN THAILAND***

ABOVE- ORAWAN SANGCHAN REPORTS FROM CLOSE TO BANGKOK,THAILAND

PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER HAS CONFIRMED TSUNAMI WAVE GENERATION*****************

Over 1ft Tsunami Wave reported from Sabang,Indonesia

TSUNAMI LIKELY HEADING TOWARDS THAILAND

The Tsunami Wave as was anticipated has been generated! The recent update from the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center indicates the elevated Sea heights at the Northern Sumatra and vicinity

TSUNAMI BULLETIN NUMBER 003
PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER/NOAA/NWS
ISSUED AT 1014Z 11 APR 2012

THIS BULLETIN IS FOR ALL AREAS OF THE INDIAN OCEAN.

... AN INDIAN-OCEAN-WIDE TSUNAMI WATCH IS IN EFFECT ...

A TSUNAMI WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR

 INDONESIA / INDIA / AUSTRALIA / SRI LANKA / MYANMAR / THAILAND /
 MALDIVES / UNITED KINGDOM / MALAYSIA / MAURITIUS / REUNION /
 SEYCHELLES / OMAN / PAKISTAN / SOMALIA / MADAGASCAR / IRAN /
 UAE / YEMEN / COMORES / MOZAMBIQUE / KENYA / TANZANIA /
 CROZET ISLANDS / BANGLADESH / KERGUELEN ISLANDS / SOUTH AFRICA /
 SINGAPORE

THIS BULLETIN IS ISSUED AS ADVICE TO GOVERNMENT AGENCIES.  ONLY
NATIONAL AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT AGENCIES HAVE THE AUTHORITY TO MAKE
DECISIONS REGARDING THE OFFICIAL STATE OF ALERT IN THEIR AREA AND
ANY ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN IN RESPONSE.

AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS

 ORIGIN TIME -  0839Z 11 APR 2012
 COORDINATES -   2.3 NORTH   93.1 EAST
 LOCATION    -  OFF W COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA
 MAGNITUDE   -  8.7

MEASUREMENTS OR REPORTS OF TSUNAMI WAVE ACTIVITY

 GAUGE LOCATION        LAT   LON    TIME        AMPL         PER
 -------------------  ----- ------  -----  ---------------  -----
 DART 23401            8.9N  88.5E  0956Z   0.03M /  0.1FT  06MIN
 MEULABOH ID           4.1N  96.1E  0950Z   0.27M /  0.9FT  14MIN
 SABANG ID             5.8N  95.3E  0956Z   0.31M /  1.0FT  08MIN

 LAT  - LATITUDE (N-NORTH, S-SOUTH)
 LON  - LONGITUDE (E-EAST, W-WEST)
 TIME - TIME OF THE MEASUREMENT (Z IS UTC IS GREENWICH TIME)
 AMPL - TSUNAMI AMPLITUDE MEASURED RELATIVE TO NORMAL SEA LEVEL.
        IT IS ...NOT... CREST-TO-TROUGH WAVE HEIGHT.
        VALUES ARE GIVEN IN BOTH METERS(M) AND FEET(FT).
 PER  - PERIOD OF TIME IN MINUTES(MIN) FROM ONE WAVE TO THE NEXT.

 NOTE - DART MEASUREMENTS ARE FROM THE DEEP OCEAN AND THEY
        ARE GENERALLY MUCH SMALLER THAN WOULD BE COASTAL
         MEASUREMENTS AT SIMILAR LOCATIONS.

EVALUATION

 SEA LEVEL READINGS INDICATE A TSUNAMI WAS GENERATED. IT MAY
 ALREADY HAVE BEEN DESTRUCTIVE ALONG SOME COASTS.

 BASED ON THESE DATA THE THREAT CONTINUES FOR ALL COASTAL AREAS OF
 THE INDIAN OCEAN. FOR THOSE AREAS - WHEN NO MAJOR WAVES HAVE
 OCCURRED FOR AT LEAST TWO HOURS AFTER THE ESTIMATED ARRIVAL TIME
 OR DAMAGING WAVES HAVE NOT OCCURRED FOR AT LEAST TWO HOURS THEN
 LOCAL AUTHORITIES CAN ASSUME THE THREAT IS PASSED. DANGER TO
 BOATS AND COASTAL STRUCTURES CAN CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL HOURS DUE
 TO RAPID CURRENTS.  AS LOCAL CONDITIONS CAN CAUSE A WIDE
 VARIATION IN TSUNAMI WAVE ACTION THE ALL CLEAR DETERMINATION MUST
 BE MADE BY LOCAL AUTHORITIES.

ESTIMATED INITIAL TSUNAMI WAVE ARRIVAL TIMES AT FORECAST POINTS
WITHIN THE WARNING AND WATCH AREAS ARE GIVEN BELOW. ACTUAL
ARRIVAL TIMES MAY DIFFER AND THE INITIAL WAVE MAY NOT BE THE
LARGEST. A TSUNAMI IS A SERIES OF WAVES AND THE TIME BETWEEN
SUCCESSIVE WAVES CAN BE FIVE MINUTES TO ONE HOUR.

 LOCATION         FORECAST POINT     COORDINATES     ARRIVAL TIME
 --------------------------------    ------------    ------------
 INDONESIA        SIMEULUE            2.5N  96.0E    0912Z 11 APR
                  BANDA_ACEH          5.5N  95.1E    0933Z 11 APR
                  SIBERUT             1.5S  98.7E    0944Z 11 APR
                  PADANG              0.9S 100.1E    1025Z 11 APR
                  BENGKULU            3.9S 102.0E    1037Z 11 APR
                  CILACAP             7.8S 108.9E    1150Z 11 APR
                  BANDAR_LAMPUNG      5.7S 105.3E    1200Z 11 APR
                  BALI                8.7S 115.3E    1234Z 11 APR
                  BELAWAN             3.8N  98.8E    1326Z 11 APR
                  KUPANG             10.0S 123.4E    1333Z 11 APR
                  BALI                8.7S 115.3E    1234Z 11 APR
 INDIA            GREAT_NICOBAR       7.1N  93.6E    0937Z 11 APR
                  LITTLE_ANDAMAN     10.7N  92.3E    1015Z 11 APR
                  NORTH_ANDAMAN      13.3N  92.6E    1045Z 11 APR
                  PORT_BLAIR         11.9N  92.7E    1050Z 11 APR
                  CHENNAI            13.4N  80.4E    1134Z 11 APR
                  TRIVANDRUM          8.3N  76.9E    1204Z 11 APR
                  KAKINADA           17.2N  82.7E    1204Z 11 APR
                  MANGALORE          13.3N  74.4E    1339Z 11 APR
                  BOMBAY             18.8N  72.6E    1605Z 11 APR
                  GULF_OF_KUTCH      22.7N  68.9E    1636Z 11 APR
 AUSTRALIA        COCOS_ISLAND       12.1S  96.7E    1046Z 11 APR
                  NORTH_WEST_CAPE    21.5S 113.9E    1312Z 11 APR
                  CAPE_INSPIRATIO    25.9S 113.0E    1413Z 11 APR
                  PERTH              32.0S 115.3E    1421Z 11 APR
                  AUGUSTA            34.3S 114.7E    1440Z 11 APR
                  GERALDTOWN         28.6S 114.3E    1456Z 11 APR
                  CAPE_LEVEQUE       16.1S 122.6E    1500Z 11 APR
                  ESPERANCE          34.0S 121.8E    1614Z 11 APR
                  KINGSTON_SOUTH_    37.0S 139.4E    1747Z 11 APR
                  HEARD_ISLAND       54.0S  73.5E    1803Z 11 APR
                  EUCLA_MOTEL        31.8S 128.9E    1824Z 11 APR
                  HOBART             43.3S 147.6E    1858Z 11 APR
                  DARWIN             12.1S 130.7E    1921Z 11 APR
 SRI LANKA        TRINCOMALEE         8.7N  81.3E    1049Z 11 APR
                  DONDRA_HEAD         5.9N  80.6E    1054Z 11 APR
                  COLOMBO             6.9N  79.8E    1121Z 11 APR
                  JAFFNA              9.9N  80.0E    1235Z 11 APR
 MYANMAR          CHEDUBA_ISLAND     18.9N  93.4E    1142Z 11 APR
                  CHEDUBA_ISLAND     18.9N  93.4E    1142Z 11 APR
                  PYINKAYAING        15.9N  94.3E    1152Z 11 APR
                  SITTWE             20.0N  92.9E    1220Z 11 APR
                  MERGUI             12.8N  98.4E    1328Z 11 APR
                  YANGON             16.5N  96.4E    1720Z 11 APR
 THAILAND         PHUKET              8.0N  98.2E    1113Z 11 APR
                  KO_PHRA_THONG       9.1N  98.2E    1203Z 11 APR
                  KO_TARUTAO          6.6N  99.6E    1233Z 11 APR
 MALDIVES         GAN                 0.6S  73.2E    1144Z 11 APR
                  MALE                4.2N  73.6E    1149Z 11 APR
                  MINICOV             8.3N  73.0E    1214Z 11 APR
 UNITED KINGDOM   DIEGO_GARCIA        7.3S  72.4E    1202Z 11 APR
 MALAYSIA         GEORGETOWN          5.4N 100.1E    1303Z 11 APR
                  PORT_DICKSON        2.5N 101.7E    1743Z 11 APR
 MAURITIUS        PORT_LOUIS         20.0S  57.3E    1500Z 11 APR
 REUNION          ST_DENIS           20.8S  55.2E    1514Z 11 APR
 SEYCHELLES       VICTORIA            4.5S  55.6E    1525Z 11 APR
 OMAN             SALALAH            16.9N  54.1E    1537Z 11 APR
                  MUSCAT             23.9N  58.6E    1544Z 11 APR
                  DUQM               19.7N  57.8E    1553Z 11 APR
 PAKISTAN         GWADAR             25.1N  62.4E    1546Z 11 APR
                  KARACHI            24.7N  66.9E    1638Z 11 APR
 SOMALIA          HILALAYA            6.4N  49.1E    1546Z 11 APR
                  CAPE_GUARO         11.9N  51.4E    1547Z 11 APR
                  MOGADISHU           2.0N  45.5E    1602Z 11 APR
                  KAAMBOONI           1.5S  41.9E    1629Z 11 APR
 MADAGASCAR       ANTSIRANANA        12.1S  49.5E    1548Z 11 APR
                  TOAMASINA          17.8S  49.6E    1601Z 11 APR
                  MANAKARA           22.2S  48.2E    1616Z 11 APR
                  MAHAJANGA          15.4S  46.2E    1652Z 11 APR
                  CAP_STE_MARIE      25.8S  45.2E    1716Z 11 APR
                  TOLIARA            23.4S  43.6E    1741Z 11 APR
 IRAN             GAVATER            25.0N  61.3E    1552Z 11 APR
 UAE              FUJAIRAH           25.1N  56.4E    1630Z 11 APR
 YEMEN            AL_MUKALLA         14.5N  49.2E    1637Z 11 APR
                  ADEN               13.0N  45.2E    1722Z 11 APR
 COMORES          MORONI             11.6S  43.3E    1649Z 11 APR
 MOZAMBIQUE       CABO_DELGADO       10.7S  40.7E    1706Z 11 APR
                  ANGOCHE            15.5S  40.6E    1738Z 11 APR
                  QUELIMANE          18.0S  37.1E    1905Z 11 APR
                  MAPUTO             25.9S  32.8E    1955Z 11 APR
                  BEIRA              19.9S  35.1E    2017Z 11 APR
 KENYA            MOMBASA             4.0S  39.7E    1706Z 11 APR
 TANZANIA         LINDI               9.8S  39.9E    1707Z 11 APR
                  DAR_ES_SALAAM       6.7S  39.4E    1710Z 11 APR
 CROZET ISLANDS   CROZET_ISLANDS     46.4S  51.8E    1734Z 11 APR
 BANGLADESH       CHITTAGONG         22.7N  91.2E    1735Z 11 APR
 KERGUELEN ISLAN  PORT_AUX_FRANCA    49.0S  69.1E    1816Z 11 APR
 SOUTH AFRICA     PRINCE_EDWARD_I    46.6S  37.6E    1907Z 11 APR
                  DURBAN             29.8S  31.2E    1910Z 11 APR
                  PORT_ELIZABETH     33.9S  25.8E    2011Z 11 APR
                  CAPE_TOWN          34.1S  18.0E    2111Z 11 APR
 SINGAPORE        SINGAPORE           1.2N 103.8E    2330Z 11 APR

8.7M EARTHQUAKE STRIKES WEST COST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA

AKG SEISMOLOGY-

MAGNITUDE 8.7 EARTHQUAKE HAS OCURED AT 08:38:38 UTC AT 2.3N,93.073E 

*** PEOPLE AT WESTERN COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA AND OTHER PARTS OF SUMATRA MUST PAY ATTENTION *************

THE EARTHQUAKE'S EPICENTER WAS 434 km (269 miles) SW of Banda Aceh, Sumatra, Indonesia

550 km (341 miles) SW of Lhokseumawe, Sumatra, Indonesia
963 km (598 miles) W of KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia
1797 km (1116 miles) WNW of JAKARTA, Java, Indonesia

TREMORS WERE FELT IN MUMBAI,KOLKATA,CHENNAI ( INDIA),SINGAPORE,THAILAND,MALAYSIA AND OTHER AREAS 

The above image shows that the Earthquake is a sea earthquake and has good potentials of generating a Tsunami. The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center is still waiting for confirmation of Tsunami generation and hence has put the Indian Ocean countries on Tsunami Watch!!

As of 0845z,11th April  BELOW ARE THE ESTIMATED ARRIVAL TIMES 

 LOCATION         FORECAST POINT     COORDINATES     ARRIVAL TIME
 --------------------------------    ------------    ------------
 INDONESIA        SIMEULUE            2.5N  96.0E    0921Z 11 APR
                  BANDA_ACEH          5.5N  95.1E    0931Z 11 APR
                  SIBERUT             1.5S  98.7E    0941Z 11 APR
                  PADANG              0.9S 100.1E    1017Z 11 APR
                  BENGKULU            3.9S 102.0E    1038Z 11 APR
                  CILACAP             7.8S 108.9E    1205Z 11 APR
                  BANDAR_LAMPUNG      5.7S 105.3E    1213Z 11 APR
                  BALI                8.7S 115.3E    1253Z 11 APR
                  KUPANG             10.0S 123.4E    1338Z 11 APR
                  BELAWAN             3.8N  98.8E    1348Z 11 APR
                  BALI                8.7S 115.3E    1253Z 11 APR

 INDIA            GREAT_NICOBAR       7.1N  93.6E    0937Z 11 APR
                  LITTLE_ANDAMAN     10.7N  92.3E    1016Z 11 APR
                  PORT_BLAIR         11.9N  92.7E    1032Z 11 APR
                  NORTH_ANDAMAN      13.3N  92.6E    1052Z 11 APR
                  CHENNAI            13.4N  80.4E    1127Z 11 APR
                  KAKINADA           17.2N  82.7E    1205Z 11 APR
                  TRIVANDRUM          8.3N  76.9E    1208Z 11 APR
                  MANGALORE          13.3N  74.4E    1336Z 11 APR
                  BOMBAY             18.8N  72.6E    1608Z 11 APR
                  GULF_OF_KUTCH      22.7N  68.9E    1634Z 11 APR
 SRI LANKA        DONDRA_HEAD         5.9N  80.6E    1039Z 11 APR
                  TRINCOMALEE         8.7N  81.3E    1051Z 11 APR
                  COLOMBO             6.9N  79.8E    1120Z 11 APR
                  JAFFNA              9.9N  80.0E    1231Z 11 APR
 AUSTRALIA        COCOS_ISLAND       12.1S  96.7E    1045Z 11 APR
                  NORTH_WEST_CAPE    21.5S 113.9E    1314Z 11 APR
                  CAPE_INSPIRATIO    25.9S 113.0E    1413Z 11 APR
                  PERTH              32.0S 115.3E    1420Z 11 APR
                  AUGUSTA            34.3S 114.7E    1440Z 11 APR
                  GERALDTOWN         28.6S 114.3E    1459Z 11 APR
                  CAPE_LEVEQUE       16.1S 122.6E    1506Z 11 APR
                  ESPERANCE          34.0S 121.8E    1615Z 11 APR
                  KINGSTON_SOUTH_    37.0S 139.4E    1748Z 11 APR
                  HEARD_ISLAND       54.0S  73.5E    1802Z 11 APR
                  EUCLA_MOTEL        31.8S 128.9E    1836Z 11 APR
                  HOBART             43.3S 147.6E    1901Z 11 APR
                  DARWIN             12.1S 130.7E    1935Z 11 APR
 MYANMAR          CHEDUBA_ISLAND     18.9N  93.4E    1149Z 11 APR
                  CHEDUBA_ISLAND     18.9N  93.4E    1149Z 11 APR
                  PYINKAYAING        15.9N  94.3E    1150Z 11 APR
                  SITTWE             20.0N  92.9E    1226Z 11 APR
                  MERGUI             12.8N  98.4E    1316Z 11 APR
                  YANGON             16.5N  96.4E    1507Z 11 APR
 THAILAND         PHUKET              8.0N  98.2E    1118Z 11 APR
                  KO_PHRA_THONG       9.1N  98.2E    1223Z 11 APR
                  KO_TARUTAO          6.6N  99.6E    1256Z 11 APR
 MALDIVES         GAN                 0.6S  73.2E    1137Z 11 APR
                  MINICOV             8.3N  73.0E    1210Z 11 APR
                  MALE                4.2N  73.6E    1211Z 11 APR
 UNITED KINGDOM   DIEGO_GARCIA        7.3S  72.4E    1153Z 11 APR
 MALAYSIA         GEORGETOWN          5.4N 100.1E    1311Z 11 APR
                  PORT_DICKSON        2.5N 101.7E    1810Z 11 APR
 MAURITIUS        PORT_LOUIS         20.0S  57.3E    1455Z 11 APR
 REUNION          ST_DENIS           20.8S  55.2E    1512Z 11 APR
 SEYCHELLES       VICTORIA            4.5S  55.6E    1516Z 11 APR
 PAKISTAN         GWADAR             25.1N  62.4E    1536Z 11 APR
                  KARACHI            24.7N  66.9E    1644Z 11 APR
 SOMALIA          CAPE_GUARO         11.9N  51.4E    1539Z 11 APR
                  HILALAYA            6.4N  49.1E    1540Z 11 APR
                  MOGADISHU           2.0N  45.5E    1558Z 11 APR
                  KAAMBOONI           1.5S  41.9E    1623Z 11 APR
 OMAN             MUSCAT             23.9N  58.6E    1540Z 11 APR
                  SALALAH            16.9N  54.1E    1547Z 11 APR
                  DUQM               19.7N  57.8E    1556Z 11 APR
 MADAGASCAR       ANTSIRANANA        12.1S  49.5E    1544Z 11 APR
                  TOAMASINA          17.8S  49.6E    1551Z 11 APR
                  MANAKARA           22.2S  48.2E    1610Z 11 APR
                  MAHAJANGA          15.4S  46.2E    1653Z 11 APR
                  CAP_STE_MARIE      25.8S  45.2E    1713Z 11 APR
                  TOLIARA            23.4S  43.6E    1733Z 11 APR
 IRAN             GAVATER            25.0N  61.3E    1546Z 11 APR
 UAE              FUJAIRAH           25.1N  56.4E    1621Z 11 APR
 YEMEN            AL_MUKALLA         14.5N  49.2E    1626Z 11 APR
                  ADEN               13.0N  45.2E    1726Z 11 APR
 COMORES          MORONI             11.6S  43.3E    1644Z 11 APR
 BANGLADESH       CHITTAGONG         22.7N  91.2E    1651Z 11 APR
 TANZANIA         LINDI               9.8S  39.9E    1659Z 11 APR
                  DAR_ES_SALAAM       6.7S  39.4E    1732Z 11 APR
 MOZAMBIQUE       CABO_DELGADO       10.7S  40.7E    1701Z 11 APR
                  ANGOCHE            15.5S  40.6E    1720Z 11 APR
                  QUELIMANE          18.0S  37.1E    1841Z 11 APR
                  MAPUTO             25.9S  32.8E    1959Z 11 APR
                  BEIRA              19.9S  35.1E    2016Z 11 APR
 KENYA            MOMBASA             4.0S  39.7E    1706Z 11 APR
 CROZET ISLANDS   CROZET_ISLANDS     46.4S  51.8E    1733Z 11 APR
 KERGUELEN ISLAN  PORT_AUX_FRANCA    49.0S  69.1E    1815Z 11 APR
 SOUTH AFRICA     PRINCE_EDWARD_I    46.6S  37.6E    1907Z 11 APR
                  DURBAN             29.8S  31.2E    1910Z 11 APR
                  PORT_ELIZABETH     33.9S  25.8E    2006Z 11 APR
                  CAPE_TOWN          34.1S  18.0E    2109Z 11 APR
 SINGAPORE        SINGAPORE           1.2N 103.8E    2351Z 11 APR

MAJOR EARTHQUAKE (8.7M) STRIKES WEST COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA... TSUNAMI WATCH IN EFFECT

MAJOR EARTHQUAKE AT THE WEST COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA

****** 8.7M REPORTED BY USGC*********

*TSUNAMI WATCH IN EFFECT FOR MULTIPLE AREAS LIKE 

**** TSUNAMI GENERATION NOT CONFIRMED YET*****

EXPECTED TSUNAMI ARRIVAL TIMES BELOW

A TSUNAMI WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
 INDONESIA / INDIA / SRI LANKA / AUSTRALIA / MYANMAR / THAILAND /
 MALDIVES / UNITED KINGDOM / MALAYSIA / MAURITIUS / REUNION /
 SEYCHELLES / PAKISTAN / SOMALIA / OMAN / MADAGASCAR / IRAN /
 UAE / YEMEN / COMORES / BANGLADESH / TANZANIA / MOZAMBIQUE /
 KENYA / CROZET ISLANDS / KERGUELEN ISLANDS / SOUTH AFRICA /
 SINGAPORE






 LOCATION         FORECAST POINT     COORDINATES     ARRIVAL TIME
 --------------------------------    ------------    ------------
 INDONESIA        SIMEULUE            2.5N  96.0E    0921Z 11 APR
                  BANDA_ACEH          5.5N  95.1E    0931Z 11 APR
                  SIBERUT             1.5S  98.7E    0941Z 11 APR
                  PADANG              0.9S 100.1E    1017Z 11 APR
                  BENGKULU            3.9S 102.0E    1038Z 11 APR
                  CILACAP             7.8S 108.9E    1205Z 11 APR
                  BANDAR_LAMPUNG      5.7S 105.3E    1213Z 11 APR
                  BALI                8.7S 115.3E    1253Z 11 APR
                  KUPANG             10.0S 123.4E    1338Z 11 APR
                  BELAWAN             3.8N  98.8E    1348Z 11 APR
                  BALI                8.7S 115.3E    1253Z 11 APR
 INDIA            GREAT_NICOBAR       7.1N  93.6E    0937Z 11 APR
                  LITTLE_ANDAMAN     10.7N  92.3E    1016Z 11 APR
                  PORT_BLAIR         11.9N  92.7E    1032Z 11 APR
                  NORTH_ANDAMAN      13.3N  92.6E    1052Z 11 APR
                  CHENNAI            13.4N  80.4E    1127Z 11 APR
                  KAKINADA           17.2N  82.7E    1205Z 11 APR
                  TRIVANDRUM          8.3N  76.9E    1208Z 11 APR
                  MANGALORE          13.3N  74.4E    1336Z 11 APR
                  BOMBAY             18.8N  72.6E    1608Z 11 APR
                  GULF_OF_KUTCH      22.7N  68.9E    1634Z 11 APR
 SRI LANKA        DONDRA_HEAD         5.9N  80.6E    1039Z 11 APR
                  TRINCOMALEE         8.7N  81.3E    1051Z 11 APR
                  COLOMBO             6.9N  79.8E    1120Z 11 APR
                  JAFFNA              9.9N  80.0E    1231Z 11 APR
 AUSTRALIA        COCOS_ISLAND       12.1S  96.7E    1045Z 11 APR
                  NORTH_WEST_CAPE    21.5S 113.9E    1314Z 11 APR
                  CAPE_INSPIRATIO    25.9S 113.0E    1413Z 11 APR
                  PERTH              32.0S 115.3E    1420Z 11 APR
                  AUGUSTA            34.3S 114.7E    1440Z 11 APR
                  GERALDTOWN         28.6S 114.3E    1459Z 11 APR
                  CAPE_LEVEQUE       16.1S 122.6E    1506Z 11 APR
                  ESPERANCE          34.0S 121.8E    1615Z 11 APR
                  KINGSTON_SOUTH_    37.0S 139.4E    1748Z 11 APR
                  HEARD_ISLAND       54.0S  73.5E    1802Z 11 APR
                  EUCLA_MOTEL        31.8S 128.9E    1836Z 11 APR
                  HOBART             43.3S 147.6E    1901Z 11 APR
                  DARWIN             12.1S 130.7E    1935Z 11 APR
 MYANMAR          CHEDUBA_ISLAND     18.9N  93.4E    1149Z 11 APR
                  CHEDUBA_ISLAND     18.9N  93.4E    1149Z 11 APR
                  PYINKAYAING        15.9N  94.3E    1150Z 11 APR
                  SITTWE             20.0N  92.9E    1226Z 11 APR
                  MERGUI             12.8N  98.4E    1316Z 11 APR
                  YANGON             16.5N  96.4E    1507Z 11 APR
 THAILAND         PHUKET              8.0N  98.2E    1118Z 11 APR
                  KO_PHRA_THONG       9.1N  98.2E    1223Z 11 APR
                  KO_TARUTAO          6.6N  99.6E    1256Z 11 APR
 MALDIVES         GAN                 0.6S  73.2E    1137Z 11 APR
                  MINICOV             8.3N  73.0E    1210Z 11 APR
                  MALE                4.2N  73.6E    1211Z 11 APR
 UNITED KINGDOM   DIEGO_GARCIA        7.3S  72.4E    1153Z 11 APR
 MALAYSIA         GEORGETOWN          5.4N 100.1E    1311Z 11 APR
                  PORT_DICKSON        2.5N 101.7E    1810Z 11 APR
 MAURITIUS        PORT_LOUIS         20.0S  57.3E    1455Z 11 APR
 REUNION          ST_DENIS           20.8S  55.2E    1512Z 11 APR
 SEYCHELLES       VICTORIA            4.5S  55.6E    1516Z 11 APR
 PAKISTAN         GWADAR             25.1N  62.4E    1536Z 11 APR
                  KARACHI            24.7N  66.9E    1644Z 11 APR
 SOMALIA          CAPE_GUARO         11.9N  51.4E    1539Z 11 APR
                  HILALAYA            6.4N  49.1E    1540Z 11 APR
                  MOGADISHU           2.0N  45.5E    1558Z 11 APR
                  KAAMBOONI           1.5S  41.9E    1623Z 11 APR
 OMAN             MUSCAT             23.9N  58.6E    1540Z 11 APR
                  SALALAH            16.9N  54.1E    1547Z 11 APR
                  DUQM               19.7N  57.8E    1556Z 11 APR
 MADAGASCAR       ANTSIRANANA        12.1S  49.5E    1544Z 11 APR
                  TOAMASINA          17.8S  49.6E    1551Z 11 APR
                  MANAKARA           22.2S  48.2E    1610Z 11 APR
                  MAHAJANGA          15.4S  46.2E    1653Z 11 APR
                  CAP_STE_MARIE      25.8S  45.2E    1713Z 11 APR
                  TOLIARA            23.4S  43.6E    1733Z 11 APR
 IRAN             GAVATER            25.0N  61.3E    1546Z 11 APR
 UAE              FUJAIRAH           25.1N  56.4E    1621Z 11 APR
 YEMEN            AL_MUKALLA         14.5N  49.2E    1626Z 11 APR
                  ADEN               13.0N  45.2E    1726Z 11 APR
 COMORES          MORONI             11.6S  43.3E    1644Z 11 APR
 BANGLADESH       CHITTAGONG         22.7N  91.2E    1651Z 11 APR
 TANZANIA         LINDI               9.8S  39.9E    1659Z 11 APR
                  DAR_ES_SALAAM       6.7S  39.4E    1732Z 11 APR
 MOZAMBIQUE       CABO_DELGADO       10.7S  40.7E    1701Z 11 APR
                  ANGOCHE            15.5S  40.6E    1720Z 11 APR
                  QUELIMANE          18.0S  37.1E    1841Z 11 APR
                  MAPUTO             25.9S  32.8E    1959Z 11 APR
                  BEIRA              19.9S  35.1E    2016Z 11 APR
 KENYA            MOMBASA             4.0S  39.7E    1706Z 11 APR
 CROZET ISLANDS   CROZET_ISLANDS     46.4S  51.8E    1733Z 11 APR
 KERGUELEN ISLAN  PORT_AUX_FRANCA    49.0S  69.1E    1815Z 11 APR
 SOUTH AFRICA     PRINCE_EDWARD_I    46.6S  37.6E    1907Z 11 APR
                  DURBAN             29.8S  31.2E    1910Z 11 APR
                  PORT_ELIZABETH     33.9S  25.8E    2006Z 11 APR
                  CAPE_TOWN          34.1S  18.0E    2109Z 11 APR
 SINGAPORE        SINGAPORE           1.2N 103.8E    2351Z 11 APR

Hyper Quiet Space Weather!!!

SEVERE SOLARWX
AKSHAY DEORAS
SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTER

300TH ARTICLE

*** THE EARTH FACING SIDE OF THE SUN IS BLANK AT PRESENT***
*** NO SUNSPOT ON THE EARTH FACING SIDE OF THE SUN***
*** DAILY SUNSPOT NO. AS LOW AS 24 TODAY***


The progress of Solar Cycle 24 had been satisfactory in the month of March especially due to the elevated activity due to Sunspot 1429. However the spaceweather has turned flat in April 






The March 2012 monthly sunspot no has been 64.2 as against the expected 75.8. However as compared to the Feb 2012 sunspot no which was 33.1 only there has been almost doubling in March!

With the present scenario, the April sunspot no is sure to be less depending on how the Sunspots form this
month. On the back side of the Sun, there are many sunspots and many are active! These sunspots shall rotate on the Earthside of the Sun in around a week from now and interesting space weather may be expected the next week so staty tuned for the updates!

 

AKG LAUNCHES SEVERE SOLARWX PAGE

SELF UPDATING PAGE ON SPACE WEATHER PRODUCTS LAUNCHED ON AKG


SEVERE SOLARWX PAGE WILL PROVIDE REALTIME CONDITION SUCH AS SOLAR WIND,KP INDICES,REAL TIME IMAES OF SUN,CME,IMF

WHENEVER YOU ENTER THE BLOG, YOU WILL BE ASKED WHETHER YOU WANT TO VIEW THE REAL TIME CONDITIONS OR CHECK THE LATEST ARTICLES/FORECASTS ON THE BLOG. 


FOR VIEWING SPACE WEATHER DATA-


CLICK ON THE FIRST OPTION OF "CLICK HERE" WHICH WILL RE-DIRECT YOU TO SEVERE SOLARWX PAGE AND THEN CLICK ENTER


FOR VIEWING OTHER ARTICLES,SIMPLY CLICK ENTER WHICH WILL TAKE YOU TO THE MAIN PAGE OF THE BLOG




THE NEW DATAS ARE IN COLLABORATION WTH SWPC,SDO,STEREO 

NO GEOMAGNETIC STORMING EXPECTED AS MAJOR FORECAST ERRORS APPEARS. FAQ OF WHAT HAPPENED

SEVERE SOLARWX
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster

In a very disappointing event, for the first time in last two years of my forecasting, a scenarion like this has happened. The CME of 9th and 10th March has ditched all of the space weather forecasters including Space Weather Prediction Center for two times straight in a row!

The saga is now over and NO GEOMAGNETIC STORMING is expected as the anticipated CME of 10th March 2012 made an appearance in the form of G2 Geomagnetic Storm of 12th March 2012 which began with a Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse at 0843hrs GMT. I would like to clarity the entire scenario in the below FAQ

Q- Is any Geomagnetic Storming expected today (13th March) or tomorrow (14th March) from CME?
A. No, the anticipated CME(s) passed the Earth with the later one (10th March) producing a G2 Geomagnetic Storming on 12th March

Q. What happened with the 9th March CME?
A. The 9th March CME produced a very little deviation in the Magnetometers on 11th March. It produced a very minor (Around 10nT+) deviation at the ACE satellite and 22.1nT at Boulder at the peak

More can be found here -
http://akshaydeoras.blogspot.in/2012/03/mysterious-cme-hits-earth.html

Q. If the CME of 9th March striked on 11th March then why didn't Space Weather Prediction Center mentioned about it?

A. Its very surprising. Perhaps the deviations produced in the magnetic field or IMF were too minor for an alert. They should have done that!

Q. Did the CME of 10th March 2012 arrive BEFORE TIME?
A. Looking at the overall disturbance in the Magnetic field datas from ACE satellite, it appears that the CME arrived earlier than expected. It appeared 12hrs earlier than expected!

More can be found here-
http://akshaydeoras.blogspot.in/2012/03/cme-keeps-waiting-major-geomagnetic.html

Q. Why wasn't it discovered earlier that the G2 Geomagnetic Storm of 12th March was due to 10th March CME?

A. I blame the Space Weather Prediction Center for it. If they had updated about the 9th March CME impact earlier then the chance of revival or turning geo-effective of the 11th Mar CME hit would have been zero. We thought that the 11th March had a CME hit which I mentioned but the effect was negligible. So the G2 storm of 12th March was thought to be an after-effect of 9th Mar CME

This whole led to think that 10th March CME was on the way for 13th Mar collision!

Q. What does this chaos or sage reflect?
A. It reflects the present state of understanding and forecast ability. It challenges our understandings about the travelling of CME,their velocity and overall impact with the Earth

CME KEEPS WAITING! MAJOR GEOMAGNETIC STORM LIKELY TODAY

SEVERE SOLARWX
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster

The anticipated Coronal Mass Ejection of 10th March 2012 hasn't arrived! The CME which was expected to hit the Earth's magnetic field on night hours ( GMT) of 12th March hasn't reached the earth!

The 9th March CME which had arrived on 11th March producing no effect became "Geoeffective" yesterday which caused a short time G2 Geomagnetic Storm! There was a major debate whether the storming was due to late effects of 9th March CME or early effects of 10th March CME but looking at the datas from ACE satellite and the deflection at Space Weather Prediction Center,Boulder it seems that that was a reviving effect from 9th March event

The above plot from the ACE satellite depicts the geomagnetic sudden impulse of yesterday at around 0843UT which later followed by a Southward Bz produced a G2 storm
Auroras were reported in some parts of Australia,New Zealand with some ground currents in Norway!


Scenario now-
Right now it seems that the wait for the CME will continue for some more time today. SWPC has mentioned that they are expecting a Major Storming today

Here is what they have mentioned. STAY TUNED FOR THE UPDATES AS WE DO EXPECT THE CME TO HIT TODAY

BUT WHEN????

Top News of the Day: 2012-03-12 23:25 UTC  Continued Geomagnetic Storming Possible Continued geomagnetic activity reaching the G3 (Strong) level is possible between now and the end of March 13 as the parade of recent coronal mass ejections affect Earth.  Meanwhile, the Solar Radiation Storm has decreased below the S1 (Minor) threshold and continues a slow decay toward background levels.  Region 1429 remains complex, but is showing signs of weakening.  No significant Radio Blackout events have been observed in the last 36 hours, so no further significant activity is currently expected after March 13

Space Weather Prediction Center finally agrees with Severe SolarWX forecast,Major Geomagnetic Storming likely on 13th March

SEVERE SOLARWX
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster

In a high level drama, the Space Weather Prediction Center called off the Geomagnetic Storming probability of 11th March today morning saying that geomagnetic storming conditions don't exist now!

The SPWC had initially expected the 9th March event generated CME to be a significant one causing a G3 level storm. However SSW, mentioned that at the most a G1 level storm will trigger;

However the momentum of CME was so low that it didn't produce any geomagnetic storming!

The Space Weather Prediction Center now has upgraded the chance of SEVERE GEOMAGNETIC STORMING on 13th March to as high as 60%

They are now expecting a G3 level storm! To err is human in nature so doesn't matter SPWC if the forecast went wrong!

The Forecast models continue to indicate a MAJOR CME heading towards collision! The CME is expected to arrive tonight ( GMT) and causing much of the action on 13th that is tomorrow!

Based on the estimates, Severe SOLARWX expects a MAJOR GEOMAGNETIC STORMING

The Geomagnetic Storm will be reaching a G3 level for sure on 13th March. Also the present S1 solar radiation storm is likely to be boosted as the bunch of elevated energy levels of protons hit the earth's magnetic field.

The IMF Bz polarity seems to be Northward at the geomagnetic sudden impulse and a slow start can be expected to the storming. The polarity will swing once the impulse takes place

The Bz polarity is always a deciding factor which has a very less scale of correct forecast

SEVERE SOLARWX enters print media


Today, Severe SolarWX forecast appeared in a leading Marathi newspaper of Central India i.e Tarun Bharat. The forecast has been for 13th march event. This has been a maiden space weather forecast published in any newspaper here as others are primarily reports. The forecast has been published in Marathi language. 


It can be seen at the top ! 


STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES

Mysterious CME hits the earth?

SEVERE SOLARWX
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster

Has the 9th March event CME hit the earth??
The question seems to be coming up as datas from ACE satellite clearly indicates the geomagnetic sudden impulse shortly after 12PM GMT. However the Space Weather Prediction Center has not issued any Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse advisory ? The latest available on their website is

2012-03-11 15:07 UTC  Solar Radiation Storm Declining, Awaiting Geomagnetic Storm

The coronal mass ejection associated with the R2 (Moderate) Radio Blackout that occurred at 0353 UTC March 9 (10:53 p.m. EST March 8) was expected to cause more geomagnetic storming beginning early on March 11, with intensities likely to reach the G3 (Strong) level. That CME hasn’t arrived as early as predicted, so stay tuned for updates as the day progresses. The coronal mass ejection associated with the R2 (Moderate) Radio Blackout event from 1744 UTC March 10 (12:44 p.m. EST March 10) should start to affect Earth late on March 12 to early on March 13, with intensities lower than those observed with the events of last week; forecast specifics are still in work. Meanwhile, the Solar Radiation Storm continues its decay and is currently at the S1 (Minor) level. Region 1429 remains complex, but is showing signs of weakening. Updates here as conditions warrant.

This is surprising! The Magnetometer at Boulder,Colorado shows a strong variation in the H ( Northward ) component and D ( southward) component ( MAGNETIC SOUTH AND NORTH **) 

indicating that there has been an external applied,variational magnetic field which a Solar wind induced CME can generate

Further here is a gist of data available- 

Here you can observe that there is a deflection produced of maximum 22.1nT or K index of 3.1 suggesting a CME hit

Thus SSW CONFIRMS a CME hit! 

The IMF Bz vector initially had a South polarity ( 1600UT) but is turning North and hence again will affect the storming

In all, if a storming is produced then it shall not cross G1 level and definitely not G3 which I wonder why SWPC expects

Nevertheless, the CME of 10th Mar IS ALL SET TO MAKE A POWERFUL IMPACT ON EARLY PERIODS OF 13TH MARCH 2012 RESULTING IN STORMING ON 13,14TH ALSO

STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES!!

Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse at ACE spacecraft as 9th March CME arrives

SEVERE SOLARWX
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster

As was expected, the CME from 9th March 2012 M class event has arrived at the ACE spacecraft producing a very slow impact ( small deviation). The Impulse data is rising up ( Bt component ) reaching over 10nT

The IMF Bz is northwards now as was expected and hence initially geomagnetic storming is unlikely

STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES

Geomagnetic Storming expected today,Major one expected o 12th

SEVERE SOLARWX
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster

The M 6.3 Solar Flare of 9th Mar 2012 produced a Coronal Mass Ejection which is heading towards the Earth and is expected to land today. The initial estimates suggested that the CME was moving for an indirect collision with the Earth's Magnetosphere due to which the anticipated intensity was being considered as less. However the Space Weather Prediction Center in their recent update mentioned that they are expecting a G3 level storming!

However, the updated model analysis still shows that the momentum of the impact will be less and given the expected Northward polarity of Bz vector of IMF, the Geomagnetic Storming will have a weak start that is a G1 initially.

Moreover, SSW expects the storm to be a G1 or at the most a G2 storm. 

M 8.4 Solar Flare of 10th Mar 2012


On 1715 UT,10th Mar the sunspot 1429 produced a M 8.4 Solar Flare. There was a Major Coronal Mass Ejection associated with the flare easily noted by the STEREO Spacecraft. 


SEE THE VIDEO HERE 

THE CME IS A FAST MOVING CME AND HAS HIGH MOMENTUM. 

THE CME FROM THIS EVENT IS EXPECTED TO HIT THE EARTH'S MAGNETIC FIELD ON 12TH MARCH 2012 I.E TOMORROW NIGHT GMT 

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE GEOMAGNETIC STORMING WITH LEVELS EASILY ELEVATING TO G3

MEGA-GEOMAGNETIC STORM

THE EARTH'S MAGNETIC FIELD IN RECENT HAS RECEIVED MULTIPLE SHOCKWAVES DUE TO MANY CME AND IN CONTINUATION IS EXPECTED TO GET A DOUBLE-HIT

THE FIRST CME FROM 9TH MARCH EVENT WILL ARRIVE TODAY WITH STORMING BEGINNING FROM NIGHT GMT AND WILL DECLINE OR CONTINUE TILL 12TH MARCH 2012

AFTER THE EVENT RELAXES, CME FROM 10TH MARCH EVENT WILL HIT BY EVENING OR NIGHT WHICH WILL BE STRONGER THAN THE 9TH MARCH EVENT

THUS A MEGA-GEOMAGNETIC STORMING WILL UNFURL AND AURORAS AGAIN WILL BE SEEN IN THE MID-LATITUDES AND THE POLAR REGIONS

ONGOING SOLAR RADIATION STORM- 

THE HISTORIC SOLAR RADIATION STORM IS FINALLY DECLINING AND IS AT THE S1 LEVEL!

I AM STILL VERIFYING WHETHER THE 10TH MARCH EVENT DID SEND SOME PROTONS OR NOT. IT NORMALLY DOESN'T TAKE SO MUCH TIME FOR PROTONS TO ARRIVE

HOWEVER, AS THE CME FROM M8.4 FLARE ARRIVES, THERE WILL BE AN UPSURGE IN THE PROTON FLUX AND HENCE REVIVING THE SOLAR RADIATION STORM!

STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES!!!