AKSHAY DEORAS
SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTER
THE CME FROM THE JAN 23RD SOLAR FLARE HAS ARRIVED AND HAS CAUSED A GEOMAGNETIC SUDDEN IMPULSE.
STAY TUNED FOR MORE UPDATES!
Akshay Deoras
www.akshaydeoras.blogspot.com
www.metdweather.blogspot.com
Tuesday, January 24, 2012
Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse! CME arrives earlier than SSW forecast
AKSHAY DEORAS
SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTER
Major Geomagnetic Storming expected due to CME of M9 class flare
SEVERE SOLARWX
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster
A MAJOR GEOMAGNETIC STORMING IS LIKELY FROM TONIGHT ( GMT) OVER 25TH JAN 2012
The Mega-flare of January 23rd, which released massive and very very fast moving CME towards the Earth is expected to cause a Major Geomagnetic Storming. Initial estimates from the Goddard Space Flight Center confirm that the CME speed was over 2200km/sec when released !
The arriving models are confirming that the CME is Earth-directed and likely to hit the Earth's Magnetic Field on night hours of 24th Jan 2012 today ( GMT).
As the momentum of CME is very high, it will definitely give a very strong hit to the Earth's magnetic field which definitely will trigger Major Geomagnetic Storm
The estimates are suggesting that the Geomagnetic Storming level can reach upto G3 level which the Space Weather Prediction Center of NOAA also suggests.
Attached below is the model which shows the approaching CME
Below model image shows CME just before the impact-
Highlights-
A VERY STRONG CME IS HEADING TOWARDS THE EARTH AND WILL HIT THE EARTH'S MAGNETIC FIELD ON NIGHT HOURS ( GMT) OF 24TH JAN 2012
* A MODERATE TO STRONG GEOMAGNETIC STORM UPTO G3 LEVEL IS EXPECTED DUE TO IT
* THE MEGA FLARE ALSO BOOSTED SOLAR PROTONS WHICH HAS CAUSED A S3 LEVEL SOLAR RADIATION STORM WHICH LAST HAPPENED IN 2005.
* THE FLIGHTS TRAVELLING IN POLAR ORBIT ( POLAR ROUTE) WERE EXPECTED TO MAKE A PATH CHANGE TO AVOID EXPOSURE TO RADIATION!
* THE CME WILL SPARKLE AURORAS IN HIGH LATITUDE AND LIKELY IN LOW LATITUDE AREAS ALSO.
STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES @
http://www.facebook.com/pages/Severe-Solar-Weather-forecast/112556765473804
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster
A MAJOR GEOMAGNETIC STORMING IS LIKELY FROM TONIGHT ( GMT) OVER 25TH JAN 2012
The Mega-flare of January 23rd, which released massive and very very fast moving CME towards the Earth is expected to cause a Major Geomagnetic Storming. Initial estimates from the Goddard Space Flight Center confirm that the CME speed was over 2200km/sec when released !
The arriving models are confirming that the CME is Earth-directed and likely to hit the Earth's Magnetic Field on night hours of 24th Jan 2012 today ( GMT).
As the momentum of CME is very high, it will definitely give a very strong hit to the Earth's magnetic field which definitely will trigger Major Geomagnetic Storm
The estimates are suggesting that the Geomagnetic Storming level can reach upto G3 level which the Space Weather Prediction Center of NOAA also suggests.
Attached below is the model which shows the approaching CME
Below model image shows CME just before the impact-
Highlights-
A VERY STRONG CME IS HEADING TOWARDS THE EARTH AND WILL HIT THE EARTH'S MAGNETIC FIELD ON NIGHT HOURS ( GMT) OF 24TH JAN 2012
* A MODERATE TO STRONG GEOMAGNETIC STORM UPTO G3 LEVEL IS EXPECTED DUE TO IT
* THE FLIGHTS TRAVELLING IN POLAR ORBIT ( POLAR ROUTE) WERE EXPECTED TO MAKE A PATH CHANGE TO AVOID EXPOSURE TO RADIATION!
* THE CME WILL SPARKLE AURORAS IN HIGH LATITUDE AND LIKELY IN LOW LATITUDE AREAS ALSO.
STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES @
http://www.facebook.com/pages/Severe-Solar-Weather-forecast/112556765473804
Monday, January 23, 2012
M9 Class Solar Flare with CME released towards the Earth
A Major Solar Flare ( M9+) is in progress and has caused a Radio Blackout R2
monitor the situation LIVE
HERE
Update-
0520hrs UTC,23rd Jan 2012
The Solar Flare has been recorded as an M9 or the last level of the M class flare! Coronal Mass Ejection has taken place which is heading towards the earth due to the geo-effective position. The source of this Solar flare seems to be the region AR 1402 and not the AR 1401
STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES
monitor the situation LIVE
Update-
0520hrs UTC,23rd Jan 2012
The Solar Flare has been recorded as an M9 or the last level of the M class flare! Coronal Mass Ejection has taken place which is heading towards the earth due to the geo-effective position. The source of this Solar flare seems to be the region AR 1402 and not the AR 1401
STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES
Saturday, January 21, 2012
Moderate Geomagnetic Storming possible ahead of CME release from M3 Solar Flare
SEVERE SOLARWX
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster
The nearly quiet space weather has activated after a brief gap considering the 1-Month ( Dec 2011) avg sunspot number to be less ( decreased value) after Nov 2011 as per Solar IPS.The observed no is 73.0 as against the predicted of ~ 72 for Dec 2011
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster
The nearly quiet space weather has activated after a brief gap considering the 1-Month ( Dec 2011) avg sunspot number to be less ( decreased value) after Nov 2011 as per Solar IPS.The observed no is 73.0 as against the predicted of ~ 72 for Dec 2011
More over, the Sunspot no of Nov 2011 was as high as 96.7 as against the predicted ~ 69
With this, the sunspot no. has decreased from its previous month after June 2011.
However the Sunspot region 1401 produced a Strong M3 class Solar Flare yesterday,19th Jan 2012 at around 1515-1630hrs UT
The Solar Flare caused R1 Radio Blackout ( associated with X ray emission of the Solar Flare) reached the earth and impacted the Ionosphere
Have a look at the STEREO image of the CME release here
The CME is an Earth-directed one which has been confirmed through the model guidance. It does appear that the CME will hit the Earth's magnetic field sometime around early morning hours of Jan 22nd 2012 ( UTC ). The intensity is being monitored closely and I shall update later on it due to shortage of time now.
However I do expect a Moderate Geomagnetic Storming ( G=2) around with plenty of Auroras reserved for the high latitude areas.
Solar Weather Forecast-
I w'd like to discuss two aspects I am observing now from the Solar Dynamic Observatory images of Sun.
1] As seen from the above imagery of magnetic lines, it does appear that Sunspot 1401 ( Visible as lower part of the two giant whitish region in North-Central part of sun) has symmetric magnetic field.
As per the paper of SSW, sunspots having symmetric magnetic field posses energy for high end solar flares.
I expect this sunspot to hurl some more high end M class flares to minor X ray flares in the coming days which are likely going to be earth-directed!
Secondly,
There appears a very large and marked Coronal Loop of the Sunspot 1402 just above the sunspot 1401. The coronal loops are those structures which extend in the Solar Corona and anchored below the chromosphere in Solar Transition Region. Its a belief that in these coronal loops, there are ongoing heat transfer in them with the associated magnetic field.
Some reports claim that when such coronal loops break, CME happen releasing tons of solar wind in the space. It will be an opportunity to study how there coronal loops behave at this time.
Stay tuned for the updates!
Saturday, December 10, 2011
MOON IN THE PENUMBRAL PHASE IN NAGPUR
Akshay Deoraswww.scribd.com/akshaydeoras
Severe Earth & Space Weather Forecaster,Astrophysics article writer.
Web-
www.akshaydeoras.blogspot.com
www.metdweather.blogspot.com
AKG SETUP FOR THE LUNAR ECLIPSE
Akshay Deoras
Severe Earth & Space Weather Forecaster,Astrophysics article writer.
Web-
www.akshaydeoras.blogspot.com
www.metdweather.blogspot.comwww.scribd.com/akshaydeoras
Total Lunar Eclipse today!
By Akshay Deoras
The MOST AWAITED TOTAL LUNAR ECLIPSE IS TODAY
As known by all, the second total lunar eclipse will start today with the penumbral phase at around 1133UT.
AKG Networks will BE PASTING REAL TIME PHOTOS ON OUR BLOGS-
www.akshaydeoras.blogspot.com
www.metdweather.blogspot.com
www.rajesh26.blogspot.com
twitter.com/lunarakg
facebook.com/deorasakshay
AND WE ARE PROUD TO ANNOUNCE A TIE UP WITH VAGARIES OF WEATHER -
www.rajesh26.blogspot.com WHERE THREE IMPORTANT PHOTOS WILL BE PASTED AT 1330UT,1430UT AND 1530UT. THOSE WHO WILL NOT BE ABLE TO SEE THE LUNAR ECLIPSE ARE ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR IT ON AKG NETWORKS BY FOLLOWING REAL TIME TWEETS ON twitter.com/lunarakg
THE LIVE COVERAGE WILL BEGIN TODAY AT 1130UT ON TWITTER AND BLOG
OTHER LIVE STREAMERS
1] Hong Kong Observatory- SEE HERE ( Coverage begins at 0845PM LT)
2] Siliguri,India SEE HERE ( Coverage begins 1230UT)
3] Star Gazers SEE HERE
4] astronomylive.com
FOR AKG NETWORKS PHOTO,MEDIA PERSONS MUST CONTACT AT
akshaydeoras@hotmail.com
The MOST AWAITED TOTAL LUNAR ECLIPSE IS TODAY
As known by all, the second total lunar eclipse will start today with the penumbral phase at around 1133UT.
AKG Networks will BE PASTING REAL TIME PHOTOS ON OUR BLOGS-
www.akshaydeoras.blogspot.com
www.metdweather.blogspot.com
www.rajesh26.blogspot.com
twitter.com/lunarakg
facebook.com/deorasakshay
AND WE ARE PROUD TO ANNOUNCE A TIE UP WITH VAGARIES OF WEATHER -
www.rajesh26.blogspot.com WHERE THREE IMPORTANT PHOTOS WILL BE PASTED AT 1330UT,1430UT AND 1530UT. THOSE WHO WILL NOT BE ABLE TO SEE THE LUNAR ECLIPSE ARE ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR IT ON AKG NETWORKS BY FOLLOWING REAL TIME TWEETS ON twitter.com/lunarakg
THE LIVE COVERAGE WILL BEGIN TODAY AT 1130UT ON TWITTER AND BLOG
OTHER LIVE STREAMERS
1] Hong Kong Observatory- SEE HERE ( Coverage begins at 0845PM LT)
2] Siliguri,India SEE HERE ( Coverage begins 1230UT)
3] Star Gazers SEE HERE
4] astronomylive.com
FOR AKG NETWORKS PHOTO,MEDIA PERSONS MUST CONTACT AT
akshaydeoras@hotmail.com
Thursday, December 8, 2011
More FAQ about Lunar Eclipse
By Akshay Deoras
Q. For the regions shown ( Eclipse at Moon rise) in the above figure what will happen?
A. People are confused about Eclipse and Moonrise of this Saturday's. Well, for the regions in the Eclipse at Moonrise the exact meaning is that the lunar eclipse ( already in progress) will be seen after the moon rises. Lets think of a simple example.
Consider a train ( moon) travelling from station A( Regions where all eclipse will be visible) to station B ( regions of Eclipse at Moonrise). An observer will say that the eclipse has begun when he sees the train at either of the station. That is observer at station A will see the train first and shortly the eclipse will begin ( Passengers board the train) but for the observer at B station, the train ( Moon) and passengers ( Eclipse) isn't visible! Lets think that the train arrives at a certain time. Thus ONLY AFTER THIS TIME( Moonrise) the person will see the train ( moon) and passengers ( eclipse) and such will be the situation.
For much of India, the lunar eclipse Penumbral phase w'd have begun before but will be visible only after the moon arrives.
Q. Eclipse starts at 0615PM IST in India.What does it mean when you say eclipse begins at moonrise?
A.The time 0615PM IST is the time when the Partal Lunar Eclipse will begin.Infact the penumbral eclipse starts much before the moon rise.
Q. What can one see through unaided,untrained eyes during the penumbral eclipse phase?
A.The penumbral eclipse actually takes place when the moon enters the penumbra ( Outer light shadow of the earth.) For untrained,unaided eye not much change will be there. One will keep seeing the moon without any change in its geometry however the moon shall dim a bit ( if observed properly).
Q. Terminologies Partial,Umbra,Penumbra,Totality are confusing.How can it be made simple?
A. Its very easy!
The Earth's shadow is of the circular form. Consider the below Dart-Board
The outer circle where numbers are written is the Penumbra of earth's shadow ( Lighter shadow region)
The inner circle is the Umbra of earth's shadow ( Darker region).
The Moon in the numbered circular region is said to be in Penumbral Eclipse.
But when the moon enters inside and moves in the inner circular region ( COMPLETELY) then its said to be in Totality..
A Partial Lunar Eclipse will occur when some part of the moon enters the inner circular region but most of the moon is outside it.
Q. How will the moon look at what time on 10th Dec 2011?
A.There is a wonderful link on it. See here
Q. How long will the Lunar Eclipse of 10th Dec 2011 last?
The totality phase shall last till around 51mins i.e one will be able to observe the darker shade of Moon with the Brick Red or copper red shade.
The rest eclipse ( Penumbral to Penumbral) will last close to 6 hours!
A. People are confused about Eclipse and Moonrise of this Saturday's. Well, for the regions in the Eclipse at Moonrise the exact meaning is that the lunar eclipse ( already in progress) will be seen after the moon rises. Lets think of a simple example.
Consider a train ( moon) travelling from station A( Regions where all eclipse will be visible) to station B ( regions of Eclipse at Moonrise). An observer will say that the eclipse has begun when he sees the train at either of the station. That is observer at station A will see the train first and shortly the eclipse will begin ( Passengers board the train) but for the observer at B station, the train ( Moon) and passengers ( Eclipse) isn't visible! Lets think that the train arrives at a certain time. Thus ONLY AFTER THIS TIME( Moonrise) the person will see the train ( moon) and passengers ( eclipse) and such will be the situation.
For much of India, the lunar eclipse Penumbral phase w'd have begun before but will be visible only after the moon arrives.
Q. Eclipse starts at 0615PM IST in India.What does it mean when you say eclipse begins at moonrise?
A.The time 0615PM IST is the time when the Partal Lunar Eclipse will begin.Infact the penumbral eclipse starts much before the moon rise.
Q. What can one see through unaided,untrained eyes during the penumbral eclipse phase?
A.The penumbral eclipse actually takes place when the moon enters the penumbra ( Outer light shadow of the earth.) For untrained,unaided eye not much change will be there. One will keep seeing the moon without any change in its geometry however the moon shall dim a bit ( if observed properly).
Q. Terminologies Partial,Umbra,Penumbra,Totality are confusing.How can it be made simple?
A. Its very easy!
The Earth's shadow is of the circular form. Consider the below Dart-Board
The outer circle where numbers are written is the Penumbra of earth's shadow ( Lighter shadow region)
The inner circle is the Umbra of earth's shadow ( Darker region).
The Moon in the numbered circular region is said to be in Penumbral Eclipse.
But when the moon enters inside and moves in the inner circular region ( COMPLETELY) then its said to be in Totality..
A Partial Lunar Eclipse will occur when some part of the moon enters the inner circular region but most of the moon is outside it.
Q. How will the moon look at what time on 10th Dec 2011?
A.There is a wonderful link on it. See here
Q. How long will the Lunar Eclipse of 10th Dec 2011 last?
The totality phase shall last till around 51mins i.e one will be able to observe the darker shade of Moon with the Brick Red or copper red shade.
The rest eclipse ( Penumbral to Penumbral) will last close to 6 hours!
Tuesday, December 6, 2011
Expected weather forecast for Lunar Eclipse 10th Dec 2011
METD WEATHER
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster
Our parent blog,AKG is celebrating the Lunar Week which is a week prior to the upcoming Grand event of Total Lunar Eclipse of 10th Dec 2011 i.e on coming Saturday
Everyone knows that this is the second and the final total lunar eclipse of this year with the first one already happened on 15th June where due to the pre-monsoon phase the weather didn't permit a good view at majority areas of India. However as the winter is now in full swing, its an obvious fact that with no active low pressure systems to influence, much of India is going to get a CLEAR view of the event.
Below is a list of 32 cities of India for which the weather forecast is calculated.
It appears that around 88% of the nation will get good weather for the eclipse
Akshay Deoras
---------------
Expected weather forecast of evening 10th Dec 2011 @ 5PM-11PM
Cloud Cover( In percent) Terminology
0 CLEAR
1-20 LIGHT
21-50 MODERATE
51-75 HEAVY
76-100 OVERCAST
Alphabetical order-
1 ] Agartala - Cloud Cover shall be MODERATE but occasional views of Eclipse will be possible.
2] Agra- CLEAR WEATHER EXPECTED WITH NO CLOUD COVER
3] Ahmedabad- CLEAR
4] Aizawl- CLEAR
5] Allahabad- CLEAR
6] AMBALA - CLEAR
7] AMRITSAR- CLEAR
8] Bangalore- MODERATE ( Weather will depend on day time heat and chances of thunderstorms)
9] Bhopal - LIGHT
10] Bhubaneshwar - LIGHT
11] Chandigarh - LIGHT to CLEAR
12] Chennai - MODERATE ( HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT MAY LEAD TO CLOUD COVER)
13] New Delhi- CLEAR
14] Gandhinagar- CLEAR
15] Gangtok - HEAVY CLOUD COVER EXPECTED
16] Guwahati - LIGHT
17] Jammu - CLEAR
18] KARNAL- CLEAR
19] Kolkata- CLEAR
20] LEH- CLEAR TO LIGHT CLOUD
21] LUCKNOW- CLEAR
22] LUDHIANA- CLEAR
23] MUMBAI- CLEAR
24] NAGPUR- CLEAR
25] PATNA- LIGHT
26] RAJKOT- CLEAR
27] SRINAGAR- CLEAR
28] SURAT- CLEAR
29] TRIVANDRUM- LIGHT
30] Vishakhapatanam- LIGHT
31] PUNE- CLEAR
32] HYDERABAD- CLEAR
Thus four areas and nearby i.e Agartala and some SEVEN SISTER STATES AREA,Bangalore,Chennai and Gangtok and nearby areas have some possible cloud cover influence. The forecast is preliminary and is subjected to change as per the situation
In all the other areas will get good weather for eclipse .
METD WEATHER
Akshay Deoraswww.scribd.com/akshaydeoras
Severe Earth & Space Weather Forecaster,Astrophysics article writer.
Web-
www.akshaydeoras.blogspot.com
www.metdweather.blogspot.com
Friday, December 2, 2011
"Science of Lunar Eclipse through FAQ & Celestial Beauty of Saturday"
A Week prior to the 10th Dec 2011 Total Lunar Eclipse, AKG is beginning the Lunar Week from Sat ( 03rd Dec) to 10th Dec 2011.
The Lunar Week's inaugural article is here.I am proud to present this article titled as "Science of Lunar Eclipse through FAQ & Celestial Beauty of Saturday"
The article focuses on explaining the science of Lunar Eclipse through Frequently Asked Questions I have encountered with written in a simple language to enable the readers to understand it. Also given below are the datas from Eclipse NASA giving insight about the event on 10th Dec 2011 when a Total Lunar Eclipse will be visible.
The Eclipse is important for me and my hometown as the next eclipse ( Total Lunar) will be visible nearly after 6 years !!!
So sit back and enjoy and wish you a Happy Lunar Week.
AND!!
FOR THOSE WHO WILL BE ABLE TO SEE THE ECLIPSE: MARK THE DATE --- Sat,10th Dec 2011
Akshay Deoras
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"Science of Lunar Eclipse through FAQ & Celestial Beauty of Saturday"
By Akshay Deoras
The coming Saturday,10th Dec is going to be a wonderful evening for all the astro lovers! There will be a Total Lunar Eclipse on the evening of Saturday which will be the second one of the year ( After 15th June 2011) when the first total lunar eclipse was seen.
However, the weather didn't allow any view of the eclipse from Nagpur.
The Eclipse is going to be visible completely in East Asia,Australia,New Zealand.In India the moon will rise before the beginning of penumbral eclipse in North East states,East central region,Eastern Jammu and Kashmir. For central India including Nagpur,and the remaining regions the moon will rise in the penumbral eclipse. Penumbral Eclipse happens when the moon enters the penumbra or outer faint shadow of the Earth. As a result the TOTALITY PHASE will be seen by these areas.
However for much of Africa,Europe the eclipse last stages will be seen and so it will just be restricted to Partial Lunar Eclipse for them. The Eclipse will not be visible in extreme west africa,South America and Antarctica prominently.
The Details for India
I must say that cities in the entire Seven sister states,West Bengal,Sikkim,Bihar,Jharkhand and some parts of Chattisgarh,Extreme eastern J&K will have the moon rise before the P1 stage. So they can experience the entire phenomena.
For Kolkata moon will rise on 10th Dec around 1637hrs (1107UT).
The general timings are -
P1 = 11:33:32 UT ….. (0503PM IST)….. Moon enters the penumbra
U1 = 12:45:42 UT …. (0615PM IST)….. Moon enters the umbra
U2 = 14:06:16 UT ….. (0736PM IST) … TOTAL ECLIPSE BEGINS
GREATEST ECLIPSE - 1432UT ( 0802PM IST)
U3 = 14:57:24 UT …. (0827PM IST)
U4 = 16:17:58 UT….. (0948PM IST) … MOON LEAVES UMBRA
P4 = 17:30:00 UT …. (11PM IST) … ECLIPSE ENDS
WHAT WILL THE PEOPLE SEE (INCLUDING NAGPUR) ?
Nagpur Special*
For Nagpur, the moon rise on 10th is at 1723hrs IST (1153hrs UT)
Moon enters the Umbra - 0615PM IST
Total Eclipse Begins - 0736PM IST
MAXIMUM - 0802PM IST
Total Eclipse Ends- 0827PM IST
Partial Eclipse ends - 0948PM IST
Penumbral Eclipse ends- 11PM IST
THE NEXT TOTAL LUNAR ECLIPSE TO BE VISIBLE FROM NAGPUR WILL BE ON 31ST JAN 2018
Apparent View of the Moon and Earth's shadow in Real time at 0802PM IST
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MOON'S APPEARANCE WILL BE SIMILAR AS SHOWN IN THE ABOVE FIGURE
At 1133UT, the moon's appearance will start fading slightly which is often not noticed by naked eyes. This happens as less dark shadow of Earth falls on the Moon. As the Moon starts progressing towards the Umbra Region, from 1406UT, the Totality will start and the Moon's surface will begin to cut off due to the earth and moon will start getting darker but there will be appearance of Red shades will increase and at 1432UT the moon will be BRICK RED. The reverse process will again follow as the moon leaves umbra completely at 1618UT.
The Eclipse will be over at 1730UT!
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The Myth of Eclipses
The phenomena of eclipse wasn't as enjoyable thousands of years ago as it is today especially to see the copper red moon of totality.
For those who don't know the science of the eclipse, lets learn it through Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)Chinese people had mentioned first about Solar Eclipse long way back around 2134BC. People of the ancient times used to fear from the eclipse as they thought it was a curse. Even the famous war between Lydians and Medes ended after 5 years at once as the day turned dark due to Solar Eclipse- A phenomena which they didn't understand.
Q.Ingredients for the recipe of Total Lunar Eclipse?
A. Sun,Earth,Moon
Lunar Eclipse occurs when the Earth's shadow falls on the moon.When I am standing in front of a tube light my shadow falls behind ( Say there is a screen). This screen is the moon and I am the earth for consideration
Q.How is the moon's orbit around the Earth?A.The orbit of the moon around the Earth is an ellipse ( curve obtained when you join letter "u" from top with inverted "u"). Moon's orbit around the earth makes an angle of 5 Degree 14 mins with the ecliptic ( Ecliptic plane is the plane in which Earth orbit's the Sun)Its like when you consider a clock let the minute hand pointing from 9 to 3 be ecliptic. So the second's hand pointing from 10-4 and 8-2 is the moon's orbit around the earth but in the real three dimension of space.
Thus the second's hand crosses the plane two times.At 9'o clock and 3'o clock.The same is the concept of Moon.
Moon's orbit crosses the ecliptic two times during one orbit referred as nodes( Explained below)Thus for earth's shadow to be casted on moon or moon blocking the solar disc, the moon must be in a common plane with earth and sun i.e have co-planar orbits.
Q. When Moon crosses the ecliptic twice a month, then why there isn't eclipse twice a month?
A. Consider the below figure
COURTESY- DWIGHT ENNIS
The Nodal axis is a line joining the two nodes. That is for eclipse moon must be at one node which it does twice in its orbit BUT the sun ALSO must be at the other far end of the stick ( Nodal axis). It is supposed to happen every 6 months.
Q. Why doesn't the Eclipse re-occur at the same date after 6 months?
A.The combined gravitational pull between Earth-Moon-Sun creates a wobble in that nodal axis and so it oscillates. Due to this the dates of eclipses aren't repeated at the same dates.
Q. WHY MOON APPEARS RED SHADE DURING TOTALITY?
A. When the Totality stage arrives, the moon enters much of the Darker portion ( UMBRA) of earth's shadow. Logically one says that during maximum eclipse, the moon's view must be blocked totally making it dark and invisible for sometime but it doesn't happen.
It appears Brick or Copper Red !
The reason is at this stage, the sun's light is still traveling in the earth's atmosphere. We know that the WHITE light is composed of seven colors but as per Rayleigh's Scattering, the color having less wavelength will scatter more i.e prominently Violet,Blue and others. Since the Red color has higher wavelength than other colors, its less scattered and so when the sun's light exits the earth's atmosphere the red color spectrum is dominant. This light falls on the moon and we see its reflection. If there is more dust,volcanic ash etc in atmosphere then Moon's color will appear different ! There is a scale known as Danjon Scale which determines the color of moon which will be seen during total lunar eclipse
The French astronomer Andre-Louis Danjon proposed a useful five point scale for evaluating the visual appearance and brightness of the Moon during total lunar eclipses. 'L' values for various luminosities are defined as follows:
L = 0 Very dark eclipse.Moon almost invisible, especially at mid-totality.
L = 1 Dark Eclipse, gray or brownish in coloration. Details distinguishable only with difficulty.
L = 2 Deep red or rust-colored eclipse. Very dark central shadow, while outer edge of umbra is relatively bright.
L = 3 Brick-red eclipse.Umbral shadow usually has a bright or yellow rim.
L = 4 Very bright copper-red or orange eclipse.Umbral shadow has a bluish, very bright rim.
Courtesy- Arvind Paranjpye
Q.Is Lunar Eclipse SAFE to Watch?
A. Absolutely YES!
Infact I will encourage the readers to hunt with their telescopes or binoculars or simple naked eyes to watch this celestial beauty..
Q.Is Lunar Eclipse connected to any Natural Calamity,disasters etc.
A. Absolutely not.
Q.What is the speed of the moon during this projection through Earth's shadow?
A. Around 1.6km/sec
More questions are welcomed at-
Friday, November 18, 2011
My Ordinary Opinion about Multiverse
Alutsyah Luthfian | Create Your Badge
When the electricity went down in my area, i think of this: In the darkness, I feel that every movement I made is always in positive magnitude, since i don't know to where i go (if i ignore my own sense of "going back", "going front", and "going upward" and also "going downward"). This could be applied to time: we are all plunged in the darkness of time.
After that, I thought that this universe has maximum 7 dimension, with the first 3 dimensions are related to the properties of physical things, and the next 3 dimensions are related to time, in which we can't feel its presence.
The uppermost 1 dimension is related to the position of the Supreme Being whose control the all 6 dimensions below Him.
That's it, this is only my opinion.
When the electricity went down in my area, i think of this: In the darkness, I feel that every movement I made is always in positive magnitude, since i don't know to where i go (if i ignore my own sense of "going back", "going front", and "going upward" and also "going downward"). This could be applied to time: we are all plunged in the darkness of time.
After that, I thought that this universe has maximum 7 dimension, with the first 3 dimensions are related to the properties of physical things, and the next 3 dimensions are related to time, in which we can't feel its presence.
The uppermost 1 dimension is related to the position of the Supreme Being whose control the all 6 dimensions below Him.
That's it, this is only my opinion.
Friday, October 28, 2011
Earthquake in Turkey
Recently, Turkey is shocked with a 7.2 Magnitude Earthquake. Based on fault plane solution below, grabbed from USGS, the earthquake has coming from a thrust fault. This fault is resulted from the meeting of Arabian and Eurasian plate. The earthquake was occur in a fault probably dipping at 50 degrees, Slipping at 73 degrees, and Striking 101 degrees relative to the north.
Based on Intensity map, released by USGS, the 2011 Turkey earthquake has a peak ground acceleration of >30 percent of gravitational acceleration. This still permit people to walk in earth during earthquake, but this doesn't allow some building to endure.
Below is a seismograph record of Turkey earthquake from Kislovodsk station in Russia.
If God and time permit, I will write more in this article.
Sunday, October 23, 2011
Strong Earthquake hits Turkey.. The intensity map shows intensity 9 damage near Van,Turkey
Akshay Deoras
www.akshaydeoras.blogspot.com
www.metdweather.blogspot.com
Friday, October 21, 2011
Earthquake of Magnitude 5.0 jolts Southern Gujarat
A Light Moderate Earthquake measuring 5.0 On Richter Scale by USGC occured at 2248 IST 20km SE of Sasangir near Vansthil town in Junagadh Dist ( Epicenter)
The tremors were felt across a wide region as it was a comparitively shallow earthquake at a depth of around 15.5km at a distance of 38km Southward from Junagadh annd 126km SSW of Rajkot.
The maximum shaking happened in Junagadh dist, Amreli,Visavadar where very light damage is expected. In Ahmadabad, very light shaking happened as the p wave travelled and caused the shaking for around 25 seconds forcing people to come out of their homes. The epicenter cordinates are
21.18N,70.540 E
Akshay Deoras
www.akshaydeoras.blogspot.com
www.metdweather.blogspot.com
Saturday, September 24, 2011
Another strong M class flare in progress
A STRONG M CLASS FLARE IS IN PROGRESS AND MAY REACH TO X CLASS
Akshay Deoras
www.akshaydeoras.blogspot.com
www.metdweather.blogspot.com
Hyperactive Sunspot 1302!
Severe SolarWX
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster
The hyperactive sunspot 1302 which is near the North East limb of the sun has produced 2 X ray flares now and 3-4 M class flare..
The sunspot produced an X 1.4 flare on 22nd and then some M class flares...
However today at around 0940 UTC the sunspot produced X 1.9 Solar Flare.. Associated with it another M class flare was produced and has onset a R2 Blackout...
Also the proton event from 22nd sept has led to S1 Solar Radiation Storm...
Sunspot 1302 HAS TREMENDOUS POTENTIAL FOR RELEASING EARTH DIRECTED X FLARES...
STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES!!
Akshay Deoras
www.akshaydeoras.blogspot.com
www.metdweather.blogspot.com
Sunday, September 18, 2011
Magnitude 6.9 Earthquake strikes Sikkim,India
I am very unfortunate to announce that a Moderate Earthquake of 6.9 on richter scale ( USGC) has happened with the Epicenter at Sikkim.
*** FOR THE NEXT 24HRS, THERE IS A STRONG THREAT FOR SOME AFTERSHOCKS IN THE REGION. EACH AFTERSHOCK RESEMBLES AN EARTHQUAKE****
**** PEOPLE IN TALL BUILDINGS AND OTHER AREAS MUST WATCH OUT FOR THIS ***
*** DOS AND DONTS DURING OR AFTER EARTHQUAKE***
03322145486
As per USGC, the earthquake struck at 27.72N,88.06E which is around 68 km (42 miles) NW of Gangtok, Sikkim, India
119 km (73 miles) NNW of Shiliguri, West Bengal, India
272 km (169 miles) E of KATHMANDU, Nepal
572 km (355 miles) N of Kolkata (Calcutta), West Bengal, India
*** FOR THE NEXT 24HRS, THERE IS A STRONG THREAT FOR SOME AFTERSHOCKS IN THE REGION. EACH AFTERSHOCK RESEMBLES AN EARTHQUAKE****
**** PEOPLE IN TALL BUILDINGS AND OTHER AREAS MUST WATCH OUT FOR THIS ***
*** DOS AND DONTS DURING OR AFTER EARTHQUAKE***
03322145486
 |
| Img Courtesy- AP |
119 km (73 miles) NNW of Shiliguri, West Bengal, India
272 km (169 miles) E of KATHMANDU, Nepal
572 km (355 miles) N of Kolkata (Calcutta), West Bengal, India
The epicenter was about 19.7km deep which definitely can be considered as fortunate because earthquakes at shallow areas are very likely to create more damage.
The Earthquake happened at around 0610PM IST and datas from USGC confirming that V to VI th intensity shaking was reported around the epicenter that is in the ENTIRE SIKKIM AREA,NORTH WEST BENGAL AND EASTERN NEPAL AND NORTHERN BANGLADESH
*** AS PER USGC SCALE, THESE INTENSITY EARTHQUAKES ARE PRONE TO CAUSE LIGHT DAMAGE BUT IN INDIA, SUCH A STRONG EARTHQUAKE OFTEN CAUSES LARGE DAMAGE ESPECIALLY TO LIFE AND PROPERTY
AFTER THE MAIN EARTHQUAKE, 2 AFTERSHOCKS WERE REPORTED
1ST AFTERSHOCK-
06:41:57PM IST
MAGNITUDE- 4.8
** THIS AFTERSHOCK WAS JUST 25KM WNW OF GANGTOK***
2ND AFTERSHOCK
07:24:18PM IST
MAGNITUDE- 4.6
*** THIS EARTHQUAKE WAS 34KM W OF GANGTOK***
---------------------------- ------------------------------------ ------------------------------- ------------------------------------ -----------------------
DAMAGES-
COURTESY- CNN IBN
The DGP of Sikkim said that many buildings were damaged. He also said that roads were blocked and people were stranded on roads. He said that the Sikkim Chief Minister Pawan Chamling has called for an emergency meeting.
Arvind Kumar, Principal Resident Commissioner of Sikkim said that there was excessive damage in the northern parts of Sikkim. He also said that the rescue operations had started in the area.
There were also reports of landslides following the earthquake in areas around Sikkim and also Darjeeling.
The Prime Minister also spoke to the Sikkim Chief Minister and offered all help. The Prime Minister also directed the Cabinet Secretary to call for an emergency meeting.
There were reports of damages from Bihar. Two buildings collapsed in Katihar in Bihar. The NTPC power plant in Kahalgaon in Bihar has also been shut down because of the earthquake following which North Bihar was under power crisis.
Arvind Kumar, Principal Resident Commissioner of Sikkim said that there was excessive damage in the northern parts of Sikkim. He also said that the rescue operations had started in the area.
There were also reports of landslides following the earthquake in areas around Sikkim and also Darjeeling.
The Prime Minister also spoke to the Sikkim Chief Minister and offered all help. The Prime Minister also directed the Cabinet Secretary to call for an emergency meeting.
There were reports of damages from Bihar. Two buildings collapsed in Katihar in Bihar. The NTPC power plant in Kahalgaon in Bihar has also been shut down because of the earthquake following which North Bihar was under power crisis.
METD WEATHER- There has been a massive power cut right now in Sikkim due to the earthquake.
Areas in Northern West Bengal also are in darkness right now.
** TELEPHONE LINES HAVE BEEN DAMAGED IN SIKKIM**
Fatalities are being reported from Nepal and minor from Sikkim especially from Khatmandu.
The tremors also were reported on light scale in Delhi,Uttar Pradesh,Bihal ( DAMAGE BEING REPORTED AROUND NALANDA),Jharkhand,North East India
SCIENTIFIC DETAILS
THE EARTHQUAKE HAPPENED AT A VERY OLD AND LESS ACTIVE FAULT LINE.
THE INDIAN PLATE IN THIS REGION THRUSTS BENEATH THE EURASIAN PLATE. OUT OF THE SOME THRUST FAULTS,
 |
| COURTESY- ASC INDIA. THE HAZARD MAP FOR SIKKIM |
MBT - MAIN BOUNDARY THRUST
MCT- MAIN CENTRAL THRUST
HFF- HIMALAYAN FRONTAL THRUST
 |
| THE ABOVE IMAGE SHOWS THE MAIN EARTHQUAKE I.E GIANT SQUARE FOLLOWED BY 2 AFTERSHOCKS ALL PRODUCED NEAR THE THRUST FAULTS. |
 |
| THE USGC INTENSITY MAP SHOWING YELLOW/GREEN REGION OF INT V TO IV SHOWING MODERATE SHAKING |
 |
| SHAKING INTENSITY USGS. THIS MAP WILL BE UPDATED RAPIDLY AS MORE UPDATES FLY IN |
DUE TO THIS NATURE OF THRUST FAULTS, GOVT OF INDIA HAD PUT SIKKIM IN THE ZONE IV SEISMIC HAZARD.
PAST EARTHQUAKES
COURTESY- ASC,INDIA
18 earthquakes of magnitude 5 or greater over the past 35 years within 100 km of the epicenter of the September 18 event. The largest of these was a magnitude 6.1 earthquake in November of 1980, which occurred 75 km to the southeast. ( USGC)
Largest Instrumented Earthquake in Sikkim
19 November 1980 - Near Gangtok (Sikkim-West Bengal Border region), 6.1 Ms (PAS)
19:00:46.9 UTC, 27.39N, 88.75E, 17 kms depth
Eight people were injured in Gangtok and there was also minor damage reported from the city. the quake was felt in eastern and north-eastern India, Bangladesh, Bhutan and Nepal.
Significant Earthquakes in Sikkim
The following list briefly outlines known earthquakes in this region. General locations are provided for historical events for which "generalized" epicentral co-ordinates are available.Some events which were significant for other reasons are also included. This list will be updated whenever newer information is available. Please note that Magnitude and Intensity are NOT THE SAME. All events are within the state or union territory covered on this page unless stated otherwise.
Acronyms Used:D=Depth, OT=Origin Time, Mw=Moment Magnitude, Ms=Surface Wave magnitude, Mb=Body Wave Magnitude, ML=Local Magnitude, M?=Magnitude Type unknown
19 November 1980 - Near Gangtok (Sikkim-West Bengal Border region), 6.1 Ms (PAS)
19:00:46.9 UTC, 27.39N, 88.75E, 17 kms depth
Eight people were injured in Gangtok and there was also minor damage reported from the city. the quake was felt in eastern and north-eastern India, Bangladesh, Bhutan and Nepal.
Significant Earthquakes in Sikkim
The following list briefly outlines known earthquakes in this region. General locations are provided for historical events for which "generalized" epicentral co-ordinates are available.Some events which were significant for other reasons are also included. This list will be updated whenever newer information is available. Please note that Magnitude and Intensity are NOT THE SAME. All events are within the state or union territory covered on this page unless stated otherwise.
Acronyms Used:D=Depth, OT=Origin Time, Mw=Moment Magnitude, Ms=Surface Wave magnitude, Mb=Body Wave Magnitude, ML=Local Magnitude, M?=Magnitude Type unknown
15 January 1934 - Indo-Nepal Border region, Mw 8.0
14:21:25 IST / 08:43:25 UTC, 26.50N, 86.50E
Nearly 10,500 people were killed in Bihar and Nepal. Damage was also reported from many towns in Sikkim.
12 January 1965 - West of Gangtok (Indo-Nepal Border region), 6.1 (TS)
13:32:24 UTC, 27.60N, 88.00E
19 November 1980 - Near Gangtok (Sikkim-West Bengal Border region), 6.1 Ms (PAS)
19:00:46.9 UTC, 27.39N, 88.75E, 17 kms depth
Eight people were injured in Gangtok and there was also minor damage reported from the city. The quake was felt in eastern and north-eastern India, Bangladesh, Bhutan and Nepal.
21 August 1988 - Udaipur Gahri, Nepal (Indo-Nepal Border region), Mw 6.8 (NEIC)
23:09:09 UTC / 04:39:09 IST, 26.755N 86.616
Nearly 900 people were killed in the border districts of Nepal and Bihar, India. Damage was also reported from Kathmandu and Sikkim. Felt over much of northern and eastern India and much of Nepal. Felt as far as New Delhi.
14 February 2006 - Mana, North Sikkim, Mw 5.3
27.377 N, 88.362 E, D=020.1 kms, OT=00:55:23 UTCA moderate earthquake struck the Sikkim Himalayas on 14 February 2006 at 06:25 AM local time resulting in two deaths and minor damage to property in the state of Sikkim, India. It had a magnitude of Mw=5.3. This is the strongest earthquake in this immediate region since a Mw=6.3 earthquake on 19 November 1980.
18 May 2007 - Nambu, North Sikkim, Mb 4.6
27.302 N, 88.159 E, D=021.1 kms, OT=12:40:02 UTC
A light earthquake struck the Sikkim Himalayas on 18 May 2007 at 18:10 PM local time resulting in some panic in the state of Sikkim, India. It had a magnitude of Mb=4.6.
20 May 2007 - Singyang, North Sikkim, Mb 5.0 27.303 N, 88.191 E, D=021.1 kms, OT=14:18:18 UTC
A moderate earthquake struck the Sikkim Himalayas on 20 May 2007 at 19:48 PM local time resulting in some panic and minor damage in the state of Sikkim, India. It had a magnitude ofMb=5.0.
14:21:25 IST / 08:43:25 UTC, 26.50N, 86.50E
Nearly 10,500 people were killed in Bihar and Nepal. Damage was also reported from many towns in Sikkim.
12 January 1965 - West of Gangtok (Indo-Nepal Border region), 6.1 (TS)
13:32:24 UTC, 27.60N, 88.00E
19 November 1980 - Near Gangtok (Sikkim-West Bengal Border region), 6.1 Ms (PAS)
19:00:46.9 UTC, 27.39N, 88.75E, 17 kms depth
Eight people were injured in Gangtok and there was also minor damage reported from the city. The quake was felt in eastern and north-eastern India, Bangladesh, Bhutan and Nepal.
21 August 1988 - Udaipur Gahri, Nepal (Indo-Nepal Border region), Mw 6.8 (NEIC)
23:09:09 UTC / 04:39:09 IST, 26.755N 86.616
Nearly 900 people were killed in the border districts of Nepal and Bihar, India. Damage was also reported from Kathmandu and Sikkim. Felt over much of northern and eastern India and much of Nepal. Felt as far as New Delhi.
14 February 2006 - Mana, North Sikkim, Mw 5.3
27.377 N, 88.362 E, D=020.1 kms, OT=00:55:23 UTCA moderate earthquake struck the Sikkim Himalayas on 14 February 2006 at 06:25 AM local time resulting in two deaths and minor damage to property in the state of Sikkim, India. It had a magnitude of Mw=5.3. This is the strongest earthquake in this immediate region since a Mw=6.3 earthquake on 19 November 1980.
18 May 2007 - Nambu, North Sikkim, Mb 4.6
27.302 N, 88.159 E, D=021.1 kms, OT=12:40:02 UTC
A light earthquake struck the Sikkim Himalayas on 18 May 2007 at 18:10 PM local time resulting in some panic in the state of Sikkim, India. It had a magnitude of Mb=4.6.
20 May 2007 - Singyang, North Sikkim, Mb 5.0 27.303 N, 88.191 E, D=021.1 kms, OT=14:18:18 UTC
A moderate earthquake struck the Sikkim Himalayas on 20 May 2007 at 19:48 PM local time resulting in some panic and minor damage in the state of Sikkim, India. It had a magnitude ofMb=5.0.
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