Reasons for failure of GSLV F06 with GSAT 5P on 25th Dec 2010

( WITH UPDATED INFORMATION)

I observed the video of the launch of GSLV F06 for some time and discovered some facts associated with the failure of launch.

While observing minutely the Launch video of the GSLV F06 with GSAT 5p at 1600hrs,on 25th Dec 2010,

I observed some key details contributing to the failure of the launch.

NOTE-

FIRST IMAGE FROM TOP IS TAKEN FROM THE FRAME OF THE LAUNCH PAD

WHILE REST IMAGES OBTAINED FROM THE VIDEO SHOWS THE LAUNCH AS VIEWED FROM OPPOSITE SIDE

1*) After 47-49 to 50 seconds from launch, around 4 connectors at the first stage which carry the signals from main computer system of GSLV to components snapped off due to unknown reasons.

1**) The Heat shield of the satellite at the very top of GSLV ( blasts out suddenly )

See the VERY FIRST IMAGE FROM TOP. This was the first event in the failure.

This heat shield blast was not visible in the frame of launch taken from opposite of launch pad( i.e from viewers gallery). So I mentioned that the Boosters separated at first but actually they got burst after the heat shield.

1) At 49 seconds from Launch- A Booster got separated from the GSLV body ( As seen from the second image which is invisible to those at the launch pad side) which bend the Launch vehicle heading alignment towards Right from the normal path.

2) At 50 seconds from Launch, the dark white plume to the South of Main Body of GSLV shows confirmed UNUSUAL SEPARATION ( As seen in third image). The GSLV continued to ascent with a deviated path.

3) At 52 seconds from launch, ENTIRE path of Booster # 1 after separation with its present location is also seen

Also at this moment, there is unusual brightening at the top of the visible cloud( As explained in the fourth image)

4) At 54 seconds from launch and apx 5 seconds after separation of Booster#1, Now remaining three boosters also are clearly seen in the image. The previous explosion at 52 second separated the remaining booster from the main body of GSLV.

While the upper part of GSLV still climbs in sky ( As seen in the fifth image)

5) At 56 seconds from launch,Booster #2,3,4 are clearly seen in the picture while booster #1 goes behind the cloud

ALSO THERE IS A STRONG EXPLOSION AT THE TOP OF GSLV MAIN BODY IN THE GSAT 5P REGION.THIS MUST BE TIME WHEN RANGE SAFETY OFFICER AT ISRO PRESSED THE DESTRUCT BUTTON OF ROCKET TO AVOID IT FALLING ON LAND.

( AS SEEN FROM sixth IMAGE)

6) At 58 seconds from launch, BOOSTER #1,2,3,4 keeps ascending while there IS INCREASE IS VELOCITY OF UPPER PART OF GSLV MAIN BODY. THIS IS RELATED TO THE EXPLOSION CAUSED DUE TO DESTRUCTION COMMAND GIVEN BY ISRO

7) At 95 seconds from the launch, all the boosters start falling back on the earth while the upper part of GSLV climbs high in sky. This portion later falls down on the earth. ( See image no.8 from top)

So,

GSLV F06 failed due to

* SNAPPING OF CONNECTORS ALL OF A SUDDEN LEADING TO LOSS OF SIGNAL TO THE BOOSTERS

* THE HEAT SHIELD THEN BROKE OFF FOLLOWED BY BOOSTER SEPARATION

* TO AVOID RISK OF LAUNCH VEHICLE FALLING ON EARTH, RANGE SAFETY OFFICER PRESSED THE DESTRUCT COMMAND

( REASONS AS VERIFIED BY ISRO)

ISRO'S GSLV F06 LAUNCH CARRYING GSAT 5P FAILS

( GSLV F06 SATELLITE AFTER THE BLAST OVER SRIHARIKOTA,INDIA)

* ISRO CONFIRMS THAT AFTER T+47 SECONDS, GSLV STARTED LOSING CONTROL

Another disappointing event for all of us in India as ISRO's GSAT 5P (Weighing 2310 kg and mission cost of Rs 125 crore) satellite launch fails after 50 seconds APX from the launch

THE COUNTDOWN WENT VERY SMOOTH WITH LAUNCH AT 1604HRS. The first stage ignition performed very well but by T+47 seconds apx, the GSLV launch vehicle blasted off over Sriharikota.

The blasts happened at the first stage which is the liquid fuel burn state developed BY ISRO at the basic level AND NOT BY RUSSIAN CRYOGENIC ENGINES. SO NOT PROPER TO BLAME RUSSIAN CRYOGENIC ENGINES WHICH IS A THIRD STAGE ENGINE.

The GS1 stage burn out was targeted for 148.8 seconds from launch at altitude of 68.3km and Inertial velocity of 2.7km/sec BUT GSLV F06 BLASTED ABOUT 47 SEC.

The launch scenario is similar to what happened with Space Shuttle Challenger disaster happened on Jan 28 1986 when conditions went wrong during after the launch resulting in a blast similar to GSLV.
I bet the reason is relating to after launch period, I mean the GSLV seems to be damaged by debris during launch which caused the failure.

Another possibility is As seen from the video.It seems that one of strap on boosters failed after few seconds from launch. After that, GSLV turned left and the main engine (Stage 1) blasted off.

STILL VERY UNCLEAR FROM THESE REASONS

NOT CONFIRM. LET ISRO DO IT

2010 Lunar Eclipse begins in Europe!

The 2010 Lunar Eclipse has begun in Europe in the pre-dawn period.

As seen from this graphic generated by my sky tracking software and presently focused to Berlin in Germany,moon has made a contact with penumbra of the earth's shadow

ABOVE image is of 0631am CET

People in USA will have to wait for an hour almost from now to see the eclipse!

Live Streaming

Live streaming of this eclipse can be seen here -

http://chase.tornadovideos.net/pages/full_screen

Live streaming is from United States

Winter Solstice coupled with TOTAL LUNAR ECLIPSE on 21st Dec 2010

Spectacular two phenomena are combining on the earth on Tuesday,December 21st 2010 when Winter Solstice is happening around 0638PM EST (0508hrs,22nd Dec IST) and a TOTAL LUNAR ECLIPSE visible in North and South America on 20-21st Dec 2010.

Winter Solstice

Winter Solstice is on Dec 21 2010 at 0638PM EST(0508hrs IST,on 22nd Dec) . Winter Solstice happens when the Earth's Axial tilt is the farthest from the sun. Axial tilt or obliquity is the difference between the rotational axis and line perpendicular to orbital plane. Earth's Axial tilt at present is 23.44°. The axial tilt is al

ways constant ( minor change over a period). The axial tilt undergoes a 360° revolution around the sun. At a time on June 20 or 21 which is the SUMMER SOLSTICE , axial tilt is inclined towards the sun at angle of 23.26°

From Dec 21, length of days will start increasing ( IN Northern Hemisphere) but DEC 21-22 night period will be the LONGEST NIGHT ON THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE.

LENGTH OF NIGHT ON THAT DAY WILL BE AROUND 13HRS AND 50 MIN in Nagpur,India

Daylight time will reduce in South Pole and increase in North Pole!

Some interesting Orbital tilts of different planets!

Venus - 177.4° ( As Venus rotates from East to West direction),its Axial tilt lies in III quadrant as per Cartesian Convention where X axis is the orbital plane direction and y axis is the direction of Perpendicular line to the Orbital direction)

Moon - 6.8°

Mars- 25.19°

Saturn- 26.73°

Uranus- 97.77° ( Uranus rotates on its "equator " than its pole. If compared to earth, uranus' equator are at poles and poles are at equator

Pluto-119.61°

( ABOVE ALL VALUES ARE POSITIVE)

TOTAL LUNAR ECLIPSE

Duration (hr:mn:sc)
Totality	1:13:12
Partial	3:29:22
Penumbral	5:38:22

A total Lunar eclipse will happen on 20-21st Dec 2010.Lunar Eclipse will begin before sunrise time over Northern Europe at around 05:27:43 UTC on Tuesday (21st Dec) morning.Sunrise in London is around 0802hrs GMT

Greatest Lunar Eclipse will happen at 08:16:56 UTC and between 0241-0353 AM EST ( For USA)

People in USA will be the most lucky to see ENTIRE ECLIPSE and the TOTALITY as well.For people in South America, eclipse will be visible at Moonset ( Sunrise time) similar to people in Europe.

** SINCE ITS A WINTER PERIOD WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURE AND INTENSE SNOWFALL AT MANY PLACES LIKE NORTHERN USA, PARTS OF EUROPE, PEOPLE MUST CHECK WEATHER FORECAST BEFORE VENTURING OUT!

Places that see the lunar eclipse during the night of December 20. North and South America, the islands of the Pacific, Greenland, northwestern Europe and northwestern Africa. For the islands of the Pacific, Hawaii and Alaska, the eclipse starts at early to mid-evening. On the U.S. West Coast, the eclipse starts at late evening. As for the North American east coast and the South American west coast, the eclipse happens in the predawn hours on December 21. In northwestern Europe, northwestern Africa and the South American East Coast, the lunar eclipse is seen at or close to dawn on December 21.

Places that see the lunar eclipse tomorrow – on Tuesday evening, December 21.Northeast Asia, the Philippines, eastern Indonesia, eastern Australia and New Zealand.

Eclipse will end with a sunset in Japan and NE Asia..

Contacts
P1	05:27:43 UTC
U1	06:32:17 UTC
U2	07:40:21 UTC
Greatest	08:16:56 UTC
U3	08:53:34 UTC
U4	10:01:39 UTC
P4	11:06:04 UTC

For people in India,Eastern Africa and India's western neighbours, NO ECLIPSE will be visible as it will be day time here!!!

Timings are 10:58AM to 04:36PM IST on 21st Dec 2010 ! Winter Solstice is at 0508hrs on 22nd Dec 2010!

DON'T MISS IT IN ANY CASE

NEXT TOTAL LUNAR ECLIPSE IS ON 15TH JUNE 2011.

ITS VISIBLE IN INDIA!!!!

BEGIN 22:53HRS,15TH JUNE

GREATEST AT 0142HRS(16TH JUNE 2011)

ENDING AT 0432HRS(16TH JUNE 2011)

CREDITS- EARTHSKY.ORG

NASA- ECLIPSES

WIKIPEDIA.ORG( FOR TIMINGS)

MY LAPTOP SKY TRACKING SOFTWARE

My appointment with Prof.Jayant Narlikar at IUCAA

Very late in writing this post,

To Know who is Prof. Narlikar check this

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jayant_Narlikar

My second meet with Prof.Narlikar. The first meet was in Nagpur on 30th Jan 2010.

I was in Pune from 21st Nov - 26th Nov 2010 for some work at I2IT institute in Hinjewadi and for an appointment with Prof. Jayant Narlikar at his office in IUCAA,Pune University

I had an appointment with Prof.Narlikar on Friday,26th Nov 2010 at 12 noon. Prior to the appointment,I reached IUCAA by 1130hrs. At 1200hrs, I went to his cabin for the appointment specially focused on solving some of my theoretical questions with some doubts on my research work on "ROTATING BLACK HOLES"

The first question I asked was - "Whats the future of Dark Matter and Dark Energy?"

To the readers, Dark matter is an invisible matter found in the galaxies that has a key role in creation and evolution of galaxies as discovered by computer simulations of Galaxy formation

Dark energy is a form of energy which doesn't react with forms like electromagnetism so making it practically invisible in EM spectrum. Dark Energy is found to accelerate the universe at increasing rate.

The initial datas from WMAP satellite showed that Dark energy content in a newly formed Universe 13.7 billion years ago was more and now it has reduced.

Prof Narlikar answered that Dark matter is still a big question to solve and mathematical models keep fluctuating. He answered that according to him, amount of dark matter is constant in the universe and nothing can be said about its future. Even it has no relation with Dark energy

So one can't estimate anything about it.

Next question I asked was whether Gravitational singularity of Black hole having rotation can be avoided or not? ( Remember its the base of my ongoing research on "ROTATING BLACK HOLES TIME TRAVEL" )

Prof.Narlikar answered that process of finding black holes is still in progress but one has not found any Rotating black hole yet. for G.Singularity, its difficult to avoid it for the rotating black hole having its singularity in the form of a rotating disk. Tidal effects of black holes will break all the matter and it will ultimately fall in the singularity.

( I am still waiting for another answers from him on this aspect over a course of time)

NOTE- THE ABOVE CASE OF AVOIDING SINGULARITY IS FOR AN OBJECT WHICH HAS CROSSED THE EVENT HORIZON OF BLACK HOLE.

I asked more two questions on the formula E=Mc( square) and the STEADY STATE THEORY proposed by Hoyle-Goldi-Brown. Prof. Narlikar along with his PhD guid Sir Fred Hoyle had stated the H-N theory or Hoyle Narlikar theory which acts as a mathematical base of Steady state theory.

The 30 min appointment ended with him.I left for Pune airport to catch a flight back home that evening.

I will paste more clear and better images of this appointment later. This picture was taken by mobile camera so its not that clear

I am working on an article on "TACHYONS" or particles moving faster than light which will be published soon

Akshay Deoras

Light echo and geometry of Ellipsoid!!!

( The expansion of light echo of V838 Monocerotis Red variable star as seen by Hubble Space Telescope as taken between May 2002- Feb 2004)

Introduction-

Echo -( In acoustics ) echo is the reflection of sound waves when incident sound wave is reflected by an object. In echo, this reflected waves reach the observer sometime after main sound is heard.

Light echo- A phenomena in Astronomy when reflected light reaches observer so

metime after main light ray reaches.

Ellipsoid- A quadratic surface having Cartesian co-ordinates are

Light echo-

During a sudden burst of light or flash of light as seen during novae and supernova explosions, some part of light rays are reflected due to the interstellar dust which are found in many galaxies. For an observer situated at a distance from the source, initial direct light rays will reach first and then the reflected rays will reach giving it an echo form.

Interestingly, expansion of these light echos might appear to be at Super luminal speed ( Faster than speed of light).

Unlike sound echo which is a short lived phenomena, light echo can last for many yea

rs and is easily seen through images.

Interestingly, the image of V838 Monocerotis red variable star which is 20,000 ly from the sun shows a Light echo. In 2002,Jan 6 a sudden outburst happened in the Monocerotis constellation.

Astronomers observing the light curve of this explosion discovered light curve was similar to nova. v838 after reaching maximum Visual magnitude in February started dimming. But in March, v838 regained the luminosity and was brightening more and more reaching million times Solar luminosity ( Luminosity of sun). It was discovered that this brightening was due to the expanding layers. The expansion continued with increased speed.

After some period, the color of this outer layer turned red as Expanding gases cool down after some period.

Conclusion- It was concluded that the later light intensity was due to the light echo produced by the first explosion which was a nova. Light echo expanded 4-7 light years in just few month.

This means rate of expansion was faster than speed of light.

REASON FOR LIGHT ECHO AND THE SUPER LUMINAL VELOCITY DURING ITS EXPANSION.

When there is sudden burst of light, some light rays get reflected many times due to

In this image at right, a star shape at center can be considered as a Nova or Supernova explosion. The tiny blue sphere at bottom is the earth. The hazy material around Nova is Intergalactic dust which causes reflection of light rays.the interstellar dust present. ( I found an image on internet during studying light echo concept which I want to share)

The part of ray of light is without any reflection in case of A path. For B and C path, light rays are reflected

somewhere in the dust. For path A, observer at earth will receive the light first and directly. Light rays from B will reach next and then from C.

For anyone on the earth, all three location points ( A,B,C) appear in the sky to be at the same place.

So for observer light rays from B and C will appear to come from same location but the distance of B point is less from earth than C. So the expansion ( relative) of the Light echo will appear to be Super Luminal AS THE SPEED OF LIGHT IS CONSTANT AND SAME EVERYWHERE. SO DISTANCE TRAVELLED BY LIGHT RAYS IN A,B,C SCENARIO IS SAME.

Relation with Ellipsoid

On surface of an ellipsoid, consider any two focal points. Like in this figure, consider earth at the end of the blue line and the nova at the end of red line. The boundary of ellipse is the region of intergalactic dust. In this case, total length of blue and red line is around 10 units.If we move these pair of lines at any position on the ellipsoid, the total length of lines remain constant.

Considering the earth and the nova on this ellipsoid

light rays from the nova will have to travel same distance to reach the earth regardless their path. So after considering an ellipsoid it is clear why expanding light echo appears to be faster than speed of light.

Minor Storming in process

The recent High speed stream from a coronal hole is causing active storming conditions on the earth. The KP index reached 4 showing instability on late period of 27th Nov 2010

Auroras were reported in Norway due to the glancing glow!!!!

Significant CME emission

The latest images from STEREO Beacon data are showing cloud of CME released from Sun. Farside explosions are taking place!!!

Dark Matter finally in pictures

TWO IMAGES OF ABELL 1689 TAKEN. TINT BLUE COLOR IN THE BOTTOM IMAGE SHOWS LOCATION OF DARK MATTER.

NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory at California released an image taken by Hubble Space Telescope of Galaxy cluster Abell 1689 situated about 2.2 billion light years away showing distorted image of the galaxy cluster along with a tint blue shade at the center of the cluster.

Gravitational Lensing-

As predicted by Einstein's Theory of General Relativity, an object having dense mass will bend the light travelling near it as the Universe consists of fabric of Space and Time which bend due to the presence of mass. In Optical lens, a similar bending can be produced with maximum at lens position away from the center and minimum when lens position is near the center.

For Gravitational lensing, maximum bending will happen at the center of the lens and as the object moves away from the center, bending of light rays will be minimized giving less lensing.

Dark Matter-

Dark matter in typical definitions is a hypothetical (NOW INFERRED) form of matter that contributes to 80% of total matter in Universe ( 20% is visible matter)

Dark matter due to its vast amount in a galaxy cluster has helped the formation of galaxies and the universe assisting the force of gravitation.

Tendency of Dark matter is of not reacting with electromagnetism ( EM radiations) As a result of which they can't be detected by EM waves hence known as DARK.

There are three types of Dark matter

HOT,WARM,COLD dark matter....

Image of Abell 1689.

In the captured image, gravitational lensing is clearly seen as the distorted image has formed near the center of the cluster. This is considered as the actual mass of the entire cluster. Further astronomers count the mass of visible components like stars planets etc.

Subtraction of the mass calculated due to lensing and mass of visible components gives the amount of dark matter. The amount of Dark Matter is several times more than was expected by astronomers and it means galaxies had formed quite before than Dark Energy started expanding space between two galaxy. The image has clarified that more dark matter has been there at the center than expected

~ Akshay Deoras

M5 class Solar Flare from Sunspot 1121

SEVERE SOLARWX

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

On Nov 6 afternoon period, the Active sunspot 1121 hurled a massive M5 class solar flare at around 1536UT!

The wave of ionization created a minor Radiation blackout as it altered the propogation of Low frequency radio waves! Sunspot 1121 is away from Earth side of the sun so bright CM

E which was hurled during Solar flare erruption will not hit the earth

MORE M CLASS FLARES POSSIBLE

THIS WAS THE THIRD M CLASS FLARE FROM SUNSPOT 1112. MORE M CLASS FLARES ARE EXPECTED. POSTED AT RIGHT IS THE MDI MAGNETOGRAM. THE WHITE BLACK PATCHES AT LOWER LEFT REPRESENT OPPOSITE POLES AROUND THE SUNSPOT MAKING THE 1112 MORE ACTIVE.

Merapi continues its craziness

November 5, 2010

Ashes from Merapi arrives at western part of Java, like Puncak, Jakarta, and Bogor.

Total victim is 127 inhabitants

Pyroclastic cloud reached Argomulyo, Yogyakarta, 17 km from Merapi crater.

Total refugee is more than 200,000 people

VEI :4

Type of explosion: Merapi type.

Effects: 3 Universities closed. Adisutjipto airport is closed. Yogyakarta declared "danger" status in both Sleman and Yogyakarta area.

November 6, 2010

Area prohibited for people to enter is broaden up to 25 km from Merapi crater.

A new crater with diameter up to 400 meters in suspected to be created after a 4 days of relentless eruption (from Nov 3 to Nov 6, 2010 GMT+7).

Mount Merapi volcanic eruption and Mentawai earthquake

Posted by Alutsyah Luthfian

Alutsyah Luthfian Create your badge

Merapi

Merapi, a volatile volcano located at the northernmost border between Yogyakarta and Central Java. The name Merapi cames from Old Javanese term "Meru" which mean mountain and "Api" which mean fire. So the term Merapi itself means Mountain of Fire. Its legend of eruption starts from 1006 AD (120 AD?) when the collapse of Old Merapi volcano killed as much as 3000 lives. The New Merapi then growing and erupting with short pause. Merapi is an basic-intermediate volcano which height is 2968 m. It started to grow from the floor of ocean circa 700,000 years ago. At that time, just like another oceanic volcanoes its lava is basaltic. This basic basaltic lava created a broad base of Old Merapi volcano which is now visible as hilly terrain of Western Boyolali regency. After the collapse of Old Merapi, its characteristics change. Its lava then "more acidic" and has higher viscosity. This filled the big caldera left by the Old Merapi rapidly.

Merapi's eruption has its own characteristic. It grows a lava dome before an eruption. The lava dome's growth fasten rapidly when the lava is near the earth surface, thus it indicates the the D day of eruption will not wait any longer and villagers living 5 km from Merapi's summit must be evacuated, especially those who live in southern flank. On the eruption day, the lava dome collapses and pyroclastic flow roll down its flank (mostly southern flank). After the lava dome collapsed, then glimmers of lava emanate from its summit. If rain with amount more than 50 mm occurs when Merapi erupt, then lahar will flood many creeks up to 10 kilometers away from its source and threaten many sand-miners of Sleman Regency.

Also, some people living in the flank of Merapi could hear a "harmonic noise" created by magma finding its path to the earth surface a couple weeks before its eruption day. They called this sound as "Jathilan Song" and they have to run down from Merapi flank rapidly after hearing the noise.

This 2010 eruption have predicted by me one month before (September). It was a morning when i went to Jakarta from Klaten, my ancestors' town. I see that Merapi looked unusual: it spewed more smoke than it does on ordinary days.

"Hi dad.."

"What's wrong?", said my dad.

"I'm sure that Merapi will erupt this year"

"How can you said that?", my father replied me with confusion.

"See its smoke. That's all."

Entire people inside my car keep silent.

Then I posted my prediction on Merapi at the end of September and the early October. Everyone commented on my post with confusion. To reduce wrong interpretation of my post and gossips, i delete that post hastily.

OCTOBER 26, 2010, 17.02 GMT+7

Blarr! The sound of swiftly-rolling (200 km/h) hot (800 K) pyroclastic cloud of Mount Merapi signed the start of its eruption. After bulging 42 cm a day before, its summit lava dome finally collapse and spewed hot cloud to the South flank. It killed 31 lives in Kinahrejo and Umbulharjo community.

OCTOBER 27, 2010

Merapi's ash cloud is blown to West (because of Westerly Wind above the PBL which is common in tropical area), disrupting train in Purworejo, Central Java province by putting ash on railway switcher, causing it to fail. Ash is also reported to fall in Ciamis, West Java, some 250 km away from Merapi.

OCTOBER 30, 2010

For the second time, Merapi started its new episode of explosive eruption on October 30, 2010 at 12.16 - 12.34 AM GMT+7. In this second explosive eruption, the ash plume reached the height of 3,5 KM and rain of sand fell in Sleman Regency of Yogyakarta. Ash from second eruption disrupted aircraft transportation in Adisucipto Airport of Yogyakarta, causing it to be closed from 12 PM up to 02 PM GMT+7. Also, a plane departing from Adisumarmo airport of Surakarta was serviced in Hang Nadim airport of Batam because of ash from Merapi filthed its machines and body. Until the time this article written, there are 78 times of material collapse, 27 times of multiphase earthquake, once shallow volcanic earthquake and 3 times of deep volcanic earthquake.

OCTOBER 31, 2010

Pyroclastic cloud happened twice, the first is at 02.45 p.m. and the second 03.15 p.m (GMT+7). Each of them happened as long as 10 minutes. Those times' pyroclastic flows is directed to east and south east.

Until November 4, 2010, Merapi still emit pyroclastic clouds and rain of sand still happened in Magelang (since upper level wind is directed to West). Cold lahar has arrived at the city of Yogyakarta at November 3, 2010.

on November 5, 2010, Dangerous Zone of Merapi was broaden up to 20 km from its crater. At 12.45 AM, a bang was heard 30 km away followed by huge fireball emanating from Merapi's summit and after that, rain of stones fell in Merapi's flank. Ash plume's height was 9 km, thus 41 flights from Adisucipto Airport of Yogyakarta is cancelled. Also, lightning flashes lit the city of Muntilan on the northwestern Merapi flank. At 03.00 AM, the village of Argomulyo (17 km from crater) was swept by pyroclastic cloud. At noon, Ash and dust fell as far as Bandung (320 km from Merapi). Inhabitants of Yogyakarta is prohibited to approach the area 300 meters surrounding the River Code because of cold lahar. Refugees in Yogyakarta has been moved to the provincial capital and its surroundings.

By November 5, 2010 afternoon, the ash from Merapi has reached Puncak, Bogor (400 km from Merapi).

2010 eruption of Merapi Data

VEI : 4 (the worst eruption since 1872)

Volume of Ejecta: 100 million cubic meters

Type of eruption : Explosive

Lava type : Andesitic (intermediate)

Evacuated: 100,000+ inhabitants

Victims: 109 inhabitants.

Characteristic of ash: slippery because of high content of Silica and fractions of Obsidian stones.

MASTER MARIJAN

Javanese culture is full of supernatural things, including there in geophysics circumstances. In Javanese culture, upcoming geophysics phenomena could be mitigated by the coming of a "holy dream" to the "holy man", in which the dream tells him about how affecting is the phenomenon to the people. The "holy man" then tells the people to be ready for the phenomenon. One of this "holy man" is Master Marijan or Master Penewu Suraksohargo (Old Javanese noble man title meaning "A master which lead some communities that can retain his nobelity"). He is the caretaker of Merapi volcano from 1983 up to his death (aged 83) in his prayer when pyroclastic cloud swept his house on October 26, 2010. He is well known by the Indonesians because of his debut in 2006 Eruption of Merapi volcano. He was refused to be evacuated and said that 2006 eruption is not harmful and prove it by climb the mountain and went back with no injury. Starting from that time, he signed some contracts with TV programs and advertisements.

Master Marijan died in his charge "keeping the Merapi" and his loyality to his holiness KingHamengku Buwono X (Old Javanese term meaning "the Manajer of the World") of Yogyakarta. He has knew that Merapi will erupt this 2010 a couple of weeks before October 26, and also knew that this 2010 eruption will swept away his house because a triangular stone capping a lava dome is lost. He has asked many people to run down from Merapi flank. Some people died at the eruption are the ones who was refused to run down because they want to accompany the Master. When the condition of Merapi goes eerie, evacuators ask Master Marijan to run down quickly, but he said that he will run down if the king asked him to do so because of his loyality to the king.

At the time of sunset on October 26, the king asked Master to run down because the condition of Merapi is very eerie. But the Master said, "I want to do the 5th prayer first. Please wait." The pyroclastic flow swept his house when he was praying. His corpse is found in the kitchen at the position of prostrating.

As a caretaker of Merapi Volcano and a noble man in Yogyakarta Kingdom, Master Marijan has some restrictions. The restrictions are: He should not has luxurious living, Do some meditations, Loyal to the king, and Do strict fastings. This restrictions are intended for him to get closer to the nature of Merapi Volcano.

PREDICTION

I hope that Merapi eruption lasts no longer than 2 - 3 weeks (around November 10- 20, 2010). Though the pressure of Merapi still stored in magma chamber, but it has an outlet today, so the pressure of eruption could be reduced and flow constantly outside until the volcano reach stability.

VIDEO OF MERAPI ERUPTION SEEN FROM BOYOLALI

(narration in Indonesian)

Mentawai Earthquake and Tsunami

Seismogram display on Mentawai Earthquake at Bukit Timah Seismogram, Singapore

Tsunami Wave simulation video

Latest Info:

427 Victims

Magnitude of Earthquake is 7.7 M

Tsunami Height is 10 metres

Modified Mercalli Intensity perceived: VII

STS 133 LAUNCH DELAYED as hydrogen leak problem pops up.NEXT LAUNCH OPPORTUNITY ON NOV 30 2010

ABOVE-

THE GROUND UMBILICAL CARRIER PLATE WHERE HYDROGEN LEAK PROBLEM HAS BEEN DISCOVERED DURING TANKING

SPACE SHUTTLE DISCOVERY'S LAUNCH HAS BEEN DELAYED(SCRUBBED ) AS MISSION MANAGERS DISCOVERED A HYDROGEN LEAK PROBLEM at the a the Ground Umbilical Carrier Plate, or GUCP (pronounced GUP).

SIMILAR PROBLEM HAD SCRUBBED LAUNCH OF STS 119 AND 127

During the process of filling the external tank, the hydrogen leak was detected at the GUCP, an attachment point between the external tank and a 17-inch pipe that carries gaseous hydrogen safely away from Discovery to the flare stack, where it is burned off.

NEXT LAUNCH OPPORTUNITY IS ON 30TH NOV 2010

DISCOVERY IS "GO" FOR LAUNCH TODAY

METD WEATHER has issued a Weather Forecast of Kennedy Space Center,FL for Friday,Nov 5 2010

Launch is targeted for 0304PM EDT (1904PM GMT)

As per the forecast, 70% ACCEPTABLE WEATHER is there with primary concern of some winds and very very less chance of rains during the launch window...

To see the forecast click here

NASA has given "GO" for tanking.

Close range images from Comet Hartley-2

Nasa's EPOXI spacecraft has made a successful encounter with Comet Hartley 2 completing 425 mile fly to the comet's nucleus. RAW images of low resolution have just been downlinked by the spacecraft and here is the image of Comet Hartley's nucleus and jets.

High resolution images are now available above

2] space shuttle discovery launch delayed

As expected, Launch of discovery was waved off on Thursday due to bad weather at KSC. Next launch opportunity which looks in good shape is on 0304PM EDT on 5th Nov 2010!

Be sure to check Weather update @ METD WEATHER in few hours!

Technical flaws delays Discovery launch. Launch not possible on 4th Nov due to bad weather

A problem relating to circuit breaker in Space Shuttle discovery's cockpit has delayed Space shuttle discovery launch by 24hrs on official count

Earlier targeted to launch at 0352PM EDT on Nov 3, the launch now targeted for Nov 4 at 0329PM EDT

BUT BUT BUT

As mentioned in the previous weather relating post,

Weather at Kennedy Space center on Thursday,4th Nov is going to be really bad with Chance of thunderstorms,lightning and 90% above chance of rains. So I bet NASA will have to look for Nov 5,Friday for a launch when weather is expected to remain excellent with some cloud cover.

METD makes a 70% NO GO for launch on 4th

so its a 48hr LAUNCH DELAY due to bad weather

METD WEATHER CALLS FOR A 66-70% ACCEPTABLE CONDITIONS FOR LAUNCH OF SPACE SHUTTLE DISCOVERY

VIA-

METD WEATHER BLOG

www.metdweather.blogspot.com

FOR MORE DETAILS ON WEATHER AT KENNEDY SPACE CENTER DURING LAUNCH AND LANDING PERIOD

VISIT METD WEATHER BLOG

Space Shuttle Discovery is all set for its Final Launch on Nov 03 2010 at 0352PM EDT(19:52PM GMT)

Discovery on its mission STS 133 will carry Permanent Multipurpose module Leonardo and thrid of fourth ExPRESS Logistics carrier to ISS,Robonaut 2,Space X Dragon eye sensor,

This is Space Shuttle Discovery's 39th space flight and 35th flight to ISS. Discovery will land back on 14th Nov 2010

Below is the weather forecast for NOV 3 2010

METD WEATHER

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

CONCERNING - WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR LAUNCH OF SPACE SHUTTLE DISCOVERY ON STS 133 MISSION FROM KENNEDY SPACE CENTER,FL LAUNCH PAD 39A

LAUNCH COMMIT CRITERIA FOR SPACE SHUTTLE AS PREPARED BY NASA

1] TEMPERATURE

1] TANKING WILL NOT BEGIN IF 24HR TEMPERATURE has been BELOW 41F (5C) AT MINIMUM OR ABOVE 99F

THE 24HR MIN TEMP ON 2-3NOV WILL BE AROUND 18-19C WHICH MEANS TANKING WILL BE PERMITTED AND MAX WILL BE AROUND 26C. (84F)

SO FROM WEATHER POINT OF VIEW, TANKING IS "GO"

2] the temperature is lower than the prescribed minimum value for longer than 30 minutes unless sun angle, wind, temperature and relative humidity conditions permit recovery. The minimum temperature limit in degrees F. is specified by the table below and is a function of the five minute average of temperature, wind and humidity. The table becomes applicable when the observed temperature reaches 48 degrees. In no case may the Space Shuttle be launched if the temperature is 35 degrees or colder.

Wind Speed	Relative Humidity
(kts)	0-64%	65-74%	75-79%	80-89%	90-100%
0 - 1	48	47	46	45	44
2	47	46	45	44	43
3	41	41	41	40	39
4	39	39	39	39	38
5 - 7	38	38	38	38	38
8 - 14	37	37	37	37	37
>14	36	36	36	36	36

The above table can be used to determine when conditions are again acceptable for launch if parameters have been out of limits for thirty minutes or less. If longer than thirty minutes, a mathematical recovery formula of the environmental conditions is used to determine if a return to acceptable parameters has been achieved. Launch conditions have been reached if the formula reaches a positive value.

THE ABOVE RULE [2] DOESN'T APPLY AS MIN AND MAX TEMP AT LAUNCH TIME ARE WITHIN THE ACCEPTABLE WINDOW

3] WINDS

RULE- TANKING WILL NOT BEGIN IF THE WIND FORECAST OR ACTUAL IS OVER 42KT FOR NEXT 3HRS

FORECAST- WIND SPEED IS GOING TO REMAIN NEAR 7-9KT DURING THE LAUNCH WINDOW.

FORECAST SAYS "GO" FOR TANKING

RULE- WIND AT LAUNCH VARIES FROM MISSION TO MISSION

4] LIGHTNING

RULE- LIGHTNING AND ELECTRIC FIELD WITH TRIGGERING POTENTIALS ARE NOT ALLOWED

IF FORECAST IS FOR 20% CHANCE OF LIGHTNING THEN TANKING WILL NOT BEGIN

WITHIN 5NM OF LAUNCH PAD, THE ONE MINUTE AVERAGE OF ELECTRIC INTENSITY MUST REMAIN BETWEEN +1KV/M TO -1KV/M

VALUES EXCEEDING THIS LIMIT ARE NOT ALLOWED

FORECAST

The forecast doesn't call for a thunderstorm with lightning potentials and strong electric intensity

So tanking is go from this point of view

5] PRECIPITATION

NOT ALLOWED AT LAUNCH PAD OR AROUND THE LAUNCH PAD

FORECAST- FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30% CHANCE OF RAINS AT LAUNCH WINDOW PERIOD AT KENNEDY SPACE CENTER,FL AND ACCUMULATION AROUND 1"

FORECAST WILL VERY ON THE LAUNCH DAY .

METD WEATHER FORECASTS- ITS A "GO OR NO GO" DECISION AND WILL BE BEST DECIDED ON THE LAUNCH DAY SEEING THE RADAR

6] CLOUD CEILING

RULE- DIRECT OBSERVATION OF SPACE SHUTTLE IS REQUIRED FOR FIRST 8000FT

SO CLOUD CEILING SHOULD BE ABOVE 8000FT

Forecast- Forecast calls for some low clouds of ceiling around 3000ft

The thickness of the clouds is expected to be low and might favor for a launch as in this case, clouds must be light

IN ALL,

METD WEATHER FORECASTS CALLS FOR A 66-70% ACCEPTABLE CONDITIONS AT THE LAUNCH TIME AS AROUND 4 RULES OUT OF 6 PROMINENTLY ARE ACCEPTABLE. NASA CALLS FOR A 70% FAVORABLE CHANCE WHICH IS NEAR TO METD WEATHER'S VALUE

** 30% UNACCEPTABLE CONDITIONS DUE TO LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD CEILING PROBLEM.

** GO OR NO GO FOR LAUNCH WILL BE BETTER DECIDED FEW HOURS TO THE LAUNCH SEEING THE RADAR