SEVERE SOLARWX
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster
The anticipated storm of the year produced a classic G3 level Geomagnetic Storm which could have reached the G4 level but the IMF Bz was having Northerly Polarity for a prolonged time spoiling the momentum of CME impact.
The Geomagnetic Storm produced significant auroras in the United States also where people reported them from states like North Dakota,Wisconsin, Minnesota.
The Solar Radiation storm which hit the S3 level is declining and is now at S2 level which may be the Biggest Storm in perhaps last 5 years!
Estimates suggest that the Radiation Storm would be over in around next 24 hours!!
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster
The anticipated storm of the year produced a classic G3 level Geomagnetic Storm which could have reached the G4 level but the IMF Bz was having Northerly Polarity for a prolonged time spoiling the momentum of CME impact.
The Geomagnetic Storm produced significant auroras in the United States also where people reported them from states like North Dakota,Wisconsin, Minnesota.
The Solar Radiation storm which hit the S3 level is declining and is now at S2 level which may be the Biggest Storm in perhaps last 5 years!
Estimates suggest that the Radiation Storm would be over in around next 24 hours!!
The Sun Now!
The Sunspot 1429 is decaying now and having stable magnetic orientation.
It seems that it may not be producing another X class flare however SWPC considers a slight chance.
The sunspot is still capable of producing Moderate M class flares to low C class flares.
The overall earth facing side of the Sun has a coronal hole on the extreme eastern side of the Sun from which a solar wind will be flowing when it turns geo-effective.
There is one interesting sunspot rotating now on the North-eastern limb. This sunspot ( may be named as AR 1431) posses less threat now but may become favorable for producing high end C and even M class flare in the next week onwards..
Approaching CME
As was mentioned in the previous post, the Solar Flare of March 9 produced a CME which is heading towards the Earth. The WSA-ENLIL model indicates the approaching CME towards the Earth ( seen as a green dot) from the sun ( yellow dot at center).
The plasma density at the impact which will be around morning of 11th Mar 2012 GMT that is tomorrow shall be around 15/cm^3 with the Radial Velocity of around 700Km/sec.
The overall momentum from the impact seems to be low at this level and will just sparkel a G1 Geomagnetic Storm. However as seen from the above Goddard Space Flight Center analysis, the IMF Bz polarity seems to be Northwards which will lead to a weak start to the storming and revive when much of CME would have passed. Hence SSW expects a weak G1 Geomagnetic Storm on 11th March and may expect on 12th but with less chance
Severe SolarWX to enter print media!
I am happy to announce that the Severe SolarWX will be making an entry in the print media with the first and exclusive Space Weather Forecasts coming in Newspapers in India. Not seen usually, for the first time people of my hometown Nagpur,India will get to read about the Space Weather events especially forecasts which will be issued in Marathi language. However I will be posting a link for the readers knowing Marathi language who can avail the forecasts through the E-paper
The forecasts also will be coming in English on The Hitavada newspaper on Tuesdays ( when there is a space weather event) and in Tarun Bharat Paper ( Marathi) language.
This service is expected to start from around 20th March 2012.
STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES
