M 9.3 Solar Flare from the Sun with onset of R2 Radiation storm

SEVERE SOLARWX

A.Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

The Sunspot AR 1261 has released a M9.3 Solar Flare during 0209UT,30th July 2011 with a begin period at 0204UTC and ending at 0212UTC....

In a surprising attack the Sunspot 1261 didn't look that strong for releasing such a big flare but it has happened!

The Solar Flare with its X ray release causes a temporary and sometimes long lasting blackouts ( Disturbances in Earth's Ionosphere) which onsets a Radio Blackout

This M 9.3 flare also had set a R2 level blackout which mostly causes loss of communication with satellites at High Frequency on the Sunlit side of the earth for around 10s minutes.

We are monitoring the datas from STEREO spacecraft to see whether there is any CME in track towards the Earth as solar flares of such higher intensity mostly causes Coronal Mass Ejections!

STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES!

Large Sunspots now on the sun!

SEVERE SOLARWX

A.Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

After some breathtaking daily sunspot number high of 127 on 18th July 2011 the sun again disappointed forecasters like us by its sunspot number dropping again below 50.

However, the cheerful news is that there are now sunspots 1260,1261,1263 which tend to cause Active Space Weather after a slow July.

Sunspot 1260

Sunspot AR 1260 seems to have a delta magnetic field and has already produced around a dozen C class flares and a M 1 class flare on 27th July 2011 evening hours GMT

The size of these sunspots is so enormous that many earth can easily fit in these sunspots!

As per the Theory put forth in this paper ,the magnetic field lines of this sunspot region are very symmetrical and the no of field lines ( Magnetic Flux) of this sunspot seems to be lesser than the assumed value as described in the paper. A possible reason to this might be relating to some crossing field lines ( Coronal Loop) which are acting perpendicular to the main magnetic field lines ( AS seen from North-South i.e White to Black color region in the MDI Magnetogram) on the surface of sun. This coronal loops might be canceling the effective ( North-South) field lines and hence reducing the strength of the sunspot to release big flares.

SEVERE SOLARWX FORECAST

Valid till 31st July 2011

The sunspot 1261 is also growing with 1260 but is less magnetic complex for strong flares!

The main region of interest shall be AR 1263 ( At the North Eastern limb) of the Sun which is rotating towards the earth facing side of the sun.

Considering these observations from the Sunspots it does look that the C class flares shall continue to come out from 1260 and 1263 initially!

The sunspot 1260 is NOT CAPABLE of producing High end M class to X class flares as of today but an isolated M low class flare is likely.

NOAA Forecasters do expect 40% chance of M class flares.

Sunspot number jumps to 101 .Solar Maximum likely to be early than expected May 2013

Above-

The SDO image of Sun showing numerous sunspots as of 18th July and the below image shows their nomenclature as per NOAA Space Weather Prediction Centre

TOP IMAGE-

The progress of Solar Cycle 23 and Forecast of Solar Cycle 24

Solar Influences Data Centre image

SEVERE SOLARWX

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

The sunspot number ( A way of measuring the solar activity) has jumped to 101 as of 17th July 2011. The solar activity ( sunspot formation) was HIGHLY LOW for June 2011 when the average sunspot number ( monthly) was 37.0 ONLY. The overall activity was very low for June when NO such Major flares also were emitted.

However average of this month ( July) as forecasted by IPS Radio and Space Services is 53.1 however for June it was estimated to be 48.8 and factual was 37 only!

Average on monthly basis also shall reduce the July Sunspot no value to around 40-45 as per SEVERE SOLARWX

It now seems that Solar Activity is picking up on the sun however NO SUNSPOTS RIGHT NOW SHALL PRODUCE A BIG FLARE!

If readers remember the article where the datas indicated a possible Solar Maximum in May 2013

SEE HERE

The latest arriving datas indicate the Peak Monthly Sunspot number to be 90.2 in the month of December 2012 and 10cm Radio Flux of 139.0

It means if the IPS Space and Radio Services are to be believed then the Solar Maximum shall happen EARLY than predicted in December 2012 instead of May 2013.

The Intensity of the Solar Cycle Maximum shall continue to be the same as forecasted in the above link.

Synopsis-

Solar Activity shall rise from now onwards with more sunspots forming this month than anytime previous year. The Solar Maximum shall be very less intensified than the 2001 Solar max.

Chances of event like the Maunder Minimum are still hovering but less as of July 2011!

Weather improving over Kennedy Space Center as the band of thunderstorms are expected to pass NW of KSC

Above-

The 300mb map shows the area of low pressure as designated by black counter of 972mb!

METD WEATHER & AKG
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster


The Pre-Launch activities are in full swing at the Kennedy Space Center,FL for the Historical Liftoff of Space Shuttle Atlantis on STS 135 amidst a disturbed weather at Launch pad 39A

The Hatch is closed and sealed with the astronauts boarded the shuttle

The Final Count of T-9 mins is now in progress and expected for a GO/NO GO decision after 45 mins from this post

Weather Synopsis and forecast--

An upper level low responsible for the increase in the moisture in the Launch Area ( Florida) is now over SE of Florida with the low level winds almost Southerly.

Attributed increased clouding with rains in spot shall be in the vicinity of the pad and posing a threat for the launch

Presence of Cumulus clouds shall be a primary concern.

The storms today are expected to brace North at 20-25mph originating mostly over the Gulf of Mexico

The present radar image shows " VERY MINIMAL" chance of an area of Thunderstorms around NW of Leesville shall be migrating SAFELY through NW of KSC.

*** THERE APPEARS NO CLOUDING ( CB type) SW of KSC which shall saturate and affect the launch.

*** WEATHER IS STILL BEING MONITORED AND IS LIKELY TO BE GIVEN A "GREEN"

METD WEATHER - " LAUNCH WEATHER UPGRADED TO YELLOW FROM RED"

Image credit-

NASA TV HD

Current Situation @ 1445UT

28C Overcast Weather with Clouds from 457m( Few) to 6096(Overcast)
No Rainfall has been reported till now.

Waterspouts in Radar Images

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PENANG, NOVEMBER 15, 2010

This is a radar image from Malaysia of November 15, 2010 waterspout in Penang. The watersprout happened at 6.33 pm MLT (or GMT+8). Malaysian Meteorological Agency likes to montage all radar data into one image (I regrets this thing), but this bureau (and also Malaysians) has akin of good documentation. The encircled part shows the forming of waterspout over Penang, marked with circular area of unusual high rainfall rate. Why should unusual? Because, while the other parts having high rainfall rate is located simply in one straight line, the marked part located so outside.

The lower image is the same radar image but taken at 17.00 MLT, showing no activity of thunderstorm in Penang to its north.

PERLIS, OCTOBER 28, 2010

Again, the waterspout in Perlis is not forming a prominent feature, and this one is hard to spot in radar. Because of having high precipitation aloft, the echo from the waterspout is quite obscured. Since waterspout is weaker than tornadoes, it rarely forms the shape of hook in radar images.

SETINDAN ISLAND NEAR MERSING, JUNE 17, 2011

This radar image shows a thunderstorm moving from west to east. When it meets with the South China Sea, it creates a waterspout.

Data provided by Malaysian meteorological radar archive and YouTube.

ANALYSIS OF RADAR IMAGE

Seeing the radar images above, I finally come to these hypotheses:

Waterspouts in tropical region is seemingly increased in duration when the wind from two opposite direction meets (see the first two radar images). This condition is fulfilled at March to June or September to November. In that times, the High pressure area of northern Pacific is moving from its previous position; In June, it located north of Philippine and west of Japan, while in December, it located more south; it can reach Moluccas and spawn high winds for eastern Indonesia. When it moving from previous position, the wind can pass northern Malaysia and meet the opposing wind from India, made the atmosphere there unstable. Explosive CAPE can be seen in Penang case, when a CAP above Penang and Kedah broke and creates a sudden thunderstorm in only one hour.