SEVERE SOLARWX
A.Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster
After some breathtaking daily sunspot number high of 127 on 18th July 2011 the sun again disappointed forecasters like us by its sunspot number dropping again below 50.
However, the cheerful news is that there are now sunspots 1260,1261,1263 which tend to cause Active Space Weather after a slow July.
Sunspot 1260
Sunspot AR 1260 seems to have a delta magnetic field and has already produced around a dozen C class flares and a M 1 class flare on 27th July 2011 evening hours GMT
The size of these sunspots is so enormous that many earth can easily fit in these sunspots!
As per the Theory put forth in this paper ,the magnetic field lines of this sunspot region are very symmetrical and the no of field lines ( Magnetic Flux) of this sunspot seems to be lesser than the assumed value as described in the paper. A possible reason to this might be relating to some crossing field lines ( Coronal Loop) which are acting perpendicular to the main magnetic field lines ( AS seen from North-South i.e White to Black color region in the MDI Magnetogram) on the surface of sun. This coronal loops might be canceling the effective ( North-South) field lines and hence reducing the strength of the sunspot to release big flares.
SEVERE SOLARWX FORECAST
Valid till 31st July 2011
The sunspot 1261 is also growing with 1260 but is less magnetic complex for strong flares!
The main region of interest shall be AR 1263 ( At the North Eastern limb) of the Sun which is rotating towards the earth facing side of the sun.
Considering these observations from the Sunspots it does look that the C class flares shall continue to come out from 1260 and 1263 initially!
The sunspot 1260 is NOT CAPABLE of producing High end M class to X class flares as of today but an isolated M low class flare is likely.
NOAA Forecasters do expect 40% chance of M class flares.
