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Sunday, November 28, 2010

Minor Storming in process



The recent High speed stream from a coronal hole is causing active storming conditions on the earth. The KP index reached 4 showing instability on late period of 27th Nov 2010
Auroras were reported in Norway due to the glancing glow!!!!

Significant CME emission
The latest images from STEREO Beacon data are showing cloud of CME released from Sun. Farside explosions are taking place!!!

Saturday, November 13, 2010

Dark Matter finally in pictures


TWO IMAGES OF ABELL 1689 TAKEN. TINT BLUE COLOR IN THE BOTTOM IMAGE SHOWS LOCATION OF DARK MATTER.


NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory at California released an image taken by Hubble Space Telescope of Galaxy cluster Abell 1689 situated about 2.2 billion light years away showing distorted image of the galaxy cluster along with a tint blue shade at the center of the cluster.

Gravitational Lensing-
As predicted by Einstein's Theory of General Relativity, an object having dense mass will bend the light travelling near it as the Universe consists of fabric of Space and Time which bend due to the presence of mass. In Optical lens, a similar bending can be produced with maximum at lens position away from the center and minimum when lens position is near the center.
For Gravitational lensing, maximum bending will happen at the center of the lens and as the object moves away from the center, bending of light rays will be minimized giving less lensing.


Dark Matter-
Dark matter in typical definitions is a hypothetical (NOW INFERRED) form of matter that contributes to 80% of total matter in Universe ( 20% is visible matter)
Dark matter due to its vast amount in a galaxy cluster has helped the formation of galaxies and the universe assisting the force of gravitation.
Tendency of Dark matter is of not reacting with electromagnetism ( EM radiations) As a result of which they can't be detected by EM waves hence known as DARK.
There are three types of Dark matter
HOT,WARM,COLD dark matter....


Image of Abell 1689.
In the captured image, gravitational lensing is clearly seen as the distorted image has formed near the center of the cluster. This is considered as the actual mass of the entire cluster. Further astronomers count the mass of visible components like stars planets etc.
Subtraction of the mass calculated due to lensing and mass of visible components gives the amount of dark matter. The amount of Dark Matter is several times more than was expected by astronomers and it means galaxies had formed quite before than Dark Energy started expanding space between two galaxy. The image has clarified that more dark matter has been there at the center than expected



~ Akshay Deoras

Sunday, November 7, 2010

M5 class Solar Flare from Sunspot 1121


SEVERE SOLARWX
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster

On Nov 6 afternoon period, the Active sunspot 1121 hurled a massive M5 class solar flare at around 1536UT!
The wave of ionization created a minor Radiation blackout as it altered the propogation of Low frequency radio waves! Sunspot 1121 is away from Earth side of the sun so bright CM
E which was hurled during Solar flare erruption will not hit the earth

MORE M CLASS FLARES POSSIBLE
THIS WAS THE THIRD M CLASS FLARE FROM SUNSPOT 1112. MORE M CLASS FLARES ARE EXPECTED. POSTED AT RIGHT IS THE MDI MAGNETOGRAM. THE WHITE BLACK PATCHES AT LOWER LEFT REPRESENT OPPOSITE POLES AROUND THE SUNSPOT MAKING THE 1112 MORE ACTIVE.










Saturday, November 6, 2010

Merapi continues its craziness



November 5, 2010

Ashes from Merapi arrives at western part of Java, like Puncak, Jakarta, and Bogor.

Total victim is 127 inhabitants
Pyroclastic cloud reached Argomulyo, Yogyakarta, 17 km from Merapi crater.
Total refugee is more than 200,000 people
VEI :4
Type of explosion: Merapi type.
Effects: 3 Universities closed. Adisutjipto airport is closed. Yogyakarta declared "danger" status in both Sleman and Yogyakarta area.

November 6, 2010

Area prohibited for people to enter is broaden up to 25 km from Merapi crater.
A new crater with diameter up to 400 meters in suspected to be created after a 4 days of relentless eruption (from Nov 3 to Nov 6, 2010 GMT+7).

Friday, November 5, 2010

Mount Merapi volcanic eruption and Mentawai earthquake

Posted by Alutsyah Luthfian

Alutsyah Luthfian Create your badge


Merapi
Merapi, a volatile volcano located at the northernmost border between Yogyakarta and Central Java. The name Merapi cames from Old Javanese term "Meru" which mean mountain and "Api" which mean fire. So the term Merapi itself means Mountain of Fire. Its legend of eruption starts from 1006 AD (120 AD?) when the collapse of Old Merapi volcano killed as much as 3000 lives. The New Merapi then growing and erupting with short pause. Merapi is an basic-intermediate volcano which height is 2968 m. It started to grow from the floor of ocean circa 700,000 years ago. At that time, just like another oceanic volcanoes its lava is basaltic. This basic basaltic lava created a broad base of Old Merapi volcano which is now visible as hilly terrain of Western Boyolali regency. After the collapse of Old Merapi, its characteristics change. Its lava then "more acidic" and has higher viscosity. This filled the big caldera left by the Old Merapi rapidly.

Merapi's eruption has its own characteristic. It grows a lava dome before an eruption. The lava dome's growth fasten rapidly when the lava is near the earth surface, thus it indicates the the D day of eruption will not wait any longer and villagers living 5 km from Merapi's summit must be evacuated, especially those who live in southern flank. On the eruption day, the lava dome collapses and pyroclastic flow roll down its flank (mostly southern flank). After the lava dome collapsed, then glimmers of lava emanate from its summit. If rain with amount more than 50 mm occurs when Merapi erupt, then lahar will flood many creeks up to 10 kilometers away from its source and threaten many sand-miners of Sleman Regency.

Also, some people living in the flank of Merapi could hear a "harmonic noise" created by magma finding its path to the earth surface a couple weeks before its eruption day. They called this sound as "Jathilan Song" and they have to run down from Merapi flank rapidly after hearing the noise.
This 2010 eruption have predicted by me one month before (September). It was a morning when i went to Jakarta from Klaten, my ancestors' town. I see that Merapi looked unusual: it spewed more smoke than it does on ordinary days.
"Hi dad.."
"What's wrong?", said my dad.
"I'm sure that Merapi will erupt this year"
"How can you said that?", my father replied me with confusion.
"See its smoke. That's all."
Entire people inside my car keep silent.

Then I posted my prediction on Merapi at the end of September and the early October. Everyone commented on my post with confusion. To reduce wrong interpretation of my post and gossips, i delete that post hastily.

OCTOBER 26, 2010, 17.02 GMT+7
Blarr! The sound of swiftly-rolling (200 km/h) hot (800 K) pyroclastic cloud of Mount Merapi signed the start of its eruption. After bulging 42 cm a day before, its summit lava dome finally collapse and spewed hot cloud to the South flank. It killed 31 lives in Kinahrejo and Umbulharjo community.

OCTOBER 27, 2010
Merapi's ash cloud is blown to West (because of Westerly Wind above the PBL which is common in tropical area), disrupting train in Purworejo, Central Java province by putting ash on railway switcher, causing it to fail. Ash is also reported to fall in Ciamis, West Java, some 250 km away from Merapi.

OCTOBER 30, 2010
For the second time, Merapi started its new episode of explosive eruption on October 30, 2010 at 12.16 - 12.34 AM GMT+7. In this second explosive eruption, the ash plume reached the height of 3,5 KM and rain of sand fell in Sleman Regency of Yogyakarta. Ash from second eruption disrupted aircraft transportation in Adisucipto Airport of Yogyakarta, causing it to be closed from 12 PM up to 02 PM GMT+7. Also, a plane departing from Adisumarmo airport of Surakarta was serviced in Hang Nadim airport of Batam because of ash from Merapi filthed its machines and body. Until the time this article written, there are 78 times of material collapse, 27 times of multiphase earthquake, once shallow volcanic earthquake and 3 times of deep volcanic earthquake.

OCTOBER 31, 2010
Pyroclastic cloud happened twice, the first is at 02.45 p.m. and the second 03.15 p.m (GMT+7). Each of them happened as long as 10 minutes. Those times' pyroclastic flows is directed to east and south east.

Until November 4, 2010, Merapi still emit pyroclastic clouds and rain of sand still happened in Magelang (since upper level wind is directed to West). Cold lahar has arrived at the city of Yogyakarta at November 3, 2010.
on November 5, 2010, Dangerous Zone of Merapi was broaden up to 20 km from its crater. At 12.45 AM, a bang was heard 30 km away followed by huge fireball emanating from Merapi's summit and after that, rain of stones fell in Merapi's flank. Ash plume's height was 9 km, thus 41 flights from Adisucipto Airport of Yogyakarta is cancelled. Also, lightning flashes lit the city of Muntilan on the northwestern Merapi flank. At 03.00 AM, the village of Argomulyo (17 km from crater) was swept by pyroclastic cloud. At noon, Ash and dust fell as far as Bandung (320 km from Merapi). Inhabitants of Yogyakarta is prohibited to approach the area 300 meters surrounding the River Code because of cold lahar. Refugees in Yogyakarta has been moved to the provincial capital and its surroundings.
By November 5, 2010 afternoon, the ash from Merapi has reached Puncak, Bogor (400 km from Merapi).

2010 eruption of Merapi Data

VEI : 4 (the worst eruption since 1872)
Volume of Ejecta: 100 million cubic meters
Type of eruption : Explosive
Lava type : Andesitic (intermediate)
Evacuated: 100,000+ inhabitants
Victims: 109 inhabitants.
Characteristic of ash: slippery because of high content of Silica and fractions of Obsidian stones.

MASTER MARIJAN

Javanese culture is full of supernatural things, including there in geophysics circumstances. In Javanese culture, upcoming geophysics phenomena could be mitigated by the coming of a "holy dream" to the "holy man", in which the dream tells him about how affecting is the phenomenon to the people. The "holy man" then tells the people to be ready for the phenomenon. One of this "holy man" is Master Marijan or Master Penewu Suraksohargo (Old Javanese noble man title meaning "A master which lead some communities that can retain his nobelity"). He is the caretaker of Merapi volcano from 1983 up to his death (aged 83) in his prayer when pyroclastic cloud swept his house on October 26, 2010. He is well known by the Indonesians because of his debut in 2006 Eruption of Merapi volcano. He was refused to be evacuated and said that 2006 eruption is not harmful and prove it by climb the mountain and went back with no injury. Starting from that time, he signed some contracts with TV programs and advertisements.

Master Marijan died in his charge "keeping the Merapi" and his loyality to his holiness KingHamengku Buwono X (Old Javanese term meaning "the Manajer of the World") of Yogyakarta. He has knew that Merapi will erupt this 2010 a couple of weeks before October 26, and also knew that this 2010 eruption will swept away his house because a triangular stone capping a lava dome is lost. He has asked many people to run down from Merapi flank. Some people died at the eruption are the ones who was refused to run down because they want to accompany the Master. When the condition of Merapi goes eerie, evacuators ask Master Marijan to run down quickly, but he said that he will run down if the king asked him to do so because of his loyality to the king.

At the time of sunset on October 26, the king asked Master to run down because the condition of Merapi is very eerie. But the Master said, "I want to do the 5th prayer first. Please wait." The pyroclastic flow swept his house when he was praying. His corpse is found in the kitchen at the position of prostrating.

As a caretaker of Merapi Volcano and a noble man in Yogyakarta Kingdom, Master Marijan has some restrictions. The restrictions are: He should not has luxurious living, Do some meditations, Loyal to the king, and Do strict fastings. This restrictions are intended for him to get closer to the nature of Merapi Volcano.

PREDICTION

I hope that Merapi eruption lasts no longer than 2 - 3 weeks (around November 10- 20, 2010). Though the pressure of Merapi still stored in magma chamber, but it has an outlet today, so the pressure of eruption could be reduced and flow constantly outside until the volcano reach stability.
VIDEO OF MERAPI ERUPTION SEEN FROM BOYOLALI
(narration in Indonesian)

Mentawai Earthquake and Tsunami

Seismogram display on Mentawai Earthquake at Bukit Timah Seismogram, Singapore



Tsunami Wave simulation video

Latest Info:
427 Victims
Magnitude of Earthquake is 7.7 M
Tsunami Height is 10 metres
Modified Mercalli Intensity perceived: VII

STS 133 LAUNCH DELAYED as hydrogen leak problem pops up.NEXT LAUNCH OPPORTUNITY ON NOV 30 2010



ABOVE-
THE GROUND UMBILICAL CARRIER PLATE WHERE HYDROGEN LEAK PROBLEM HAS BEEN DISCOVERED DURING TANKING


SPACE SHUTTLE DISCOVERY'S LAUNCH HAS BEEN DELAYED(SCRUBBED ) AS MISSION MANAGERS DISCOVERED A HYDROGEN LEAK PROBLEM at the a the Ground Umbilical Carrier Plate, or GUCP (pronounced GUP).
SIMILAR PROBLEM HAD SCRUBBED LAUNCH OF STS 119 AND 127

During the process of filling the external tank, the hydrogen leak was detected at the GUCP, an attachment point between the external tank and a 17-inch pipe that carries gaseous hydrogen safely away from Discovery to the flare stack, where it is burned off.

NEXT LAUNCH OPPORTUNITY IS ON 30TH NOV 2010

DISCOVERY IS "GO" FOR LAUNCH TODAY


METD WEATHER has issued a Weather Forecast of Kennedy Space Center,FL for Friday,Nov 5 2010
Launch is targeted for 0304PM EDT (1904PM GMT)

As per the forecast, 70% ACCEPTABLE WEATHER is there with primary concern of some winds and very very less chance of rains during the launch window...

To see the forecast click here

NASA has given "GO" for tanking.

Thursday, November 4, 2010

Close range images from Comet Hartley-2







Nasa's EPOXI spacecraft has made a successful encounter with Comet Hartley 2 completing 425 mile fly to the comet's nucleus. RAW images of low resolution have just been downlinked by the spacecraft and here is the image of Comet Hartley's nucleus and jets.

High resolution images are now available above


2] space shuttle discovery launch delayed
As expected, Launch of discovery was waved off on Thursday due to bad weather at KSC. Next launch opportunity which looks in good shape is on 0304PM EDT on 5th Nov 2010!

Be sure to check Weather update @ METD WEATHER in few hours!

Wednesday, November 3, 2010

Technical flaws delays Discovery launch. Launch not possible on 4th Nov due to bad weather

A problem relating to circuit breaker in Space Shuttle discovery's cockpit has delayed Space shuttle discovery launch by 24hrs on official count
Earlier targeted to launch at 0352PM EDT on Nov 3, the launch now targeted for Nov 4 at 0329PM EDT

BUT BUT BUT
As mentioned in the previous weather relating post,
Weather at Kennedy Space center on Thursday,4th Nov is going to be really bad with Chance of thunderstorms,lightning and 90% above chance of rains. So I bet NASA will have to look for Nov 5,Friday for a launch when weather is expected to remain excellent with some cloud cover.
METD makes a 70% NO GO for launch on 4th

so its a 48hr LAUNCH DELAY due to bad weather

Tuesday, November 2, 2010

METD WEATHER CALLS FOR A 66-70% ACCEPTABLE CONDITIONS FOR LAUNCH OF SPACE SHUTTLE DISCOVERY

VIA-
METD WEATHER BLOG
www.metdweather.blogspot.com

FOR MORE DETAILS ON WEATHER AT KENNEDY SPACE CENTER DURING LAUNCH AND LANDING PERIOD
VISIT METD WEATHER BLOG


Space Shuttle Discovery is all set for its Final Launch on Nov 03 2010 at 0352PM EDT(19:52PM GMT)
Discovery on its mission STS 133 will carry Permanent Multipurpose module Leonardo and thrid of fourth ExPRESS Logistics carrier to ISS,Robonaut 2,Space X Dragon eye sensor,
This is Space Shuttle Discovery's 39th space flight and 35th flight to ISS. Discovery will land back on 14th Nov 2010

Below is the weather forecast for NOV 3 2010




METD WEATHER
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster

CONCERNING - WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR LAUNCH OF SPACE SHUTTLE DISCOVERY ON STS 133 MISSION FROM KENNEDY SPACE CENTER,FL LAUNCH PAD 39A

LAUNCH COMMIT CRITERIA FOR SPACE SHUTTLE AS PREPARED BY NASA

1] TEMPERATURE

1] TANKING WILL NOT BEGIN IF 24HR TEMPERATURE has been BELOW 41F (5C) AT MINIMUM OR ABOVE 99F

THE 24HR MIN TEMP ON 2-3NOV WILL BE AROUND 18-19C WHICH MEANS TANKING WILL BE PERMITTED AND MAX WILL BE AROUND 26C. (84F)
SO FROM WEATHER POINT OF VIEW, TANKING IS "GO"

2] the temperature is lower than the prescribed minimum value for longer than 30 minutes unless sun angle, wind, temperature and relative humidity conditions permit recovery. The minimum temperature limit in degrees F. is specified by the table below and is a function of the five minute average of temperature, wind and humidity. The table becomes applicable when the observed temperature reaches 48 degrees. In no case may the Space Shuttle be launched if the temperature is 35 degrees or colder.

Wind SpeedRelative Humidity
(kts)0-64%65-74%75-79%80-89%90-100%
0 - 14847464544
24746454443
34141414039
43939393938
5 - 73838383838
8 - 143737373737
>143636363636

The above table can be used to determine when conditions are again acceptable for launch if parameters have been out of limits for thirty minutes or less. If longer than thirty minutes, a mathematical recovery formula of the environmental conditions is used to determine if a return to acceptable parameters has been achieved. Launch conditions have been reached if the formula reaches a positive value.

THE ABOVE RULE [2] DOESN'T APPLY AS MIN AND MAX TEMP AT LAUNCH TIME ARE WITHIN THE ACCEPTABLE WINDOW

3] WINDS

RULE- TANKING WILL NOT BEGIN IF THE WIND FORECAST OR ACTUAL IS OVER 42KT FOR NEXT 3HRS

FORECAST- WIND SPEED IS GOING TO REMAIN NEAR 7-9KT DURING THE LAUNCH WINDOW.

FORECAST SAYS "GO" FOR TANKING

RULE- WIND AT LAUNCH VARIES FROM MISSION TO MISSION

4] LIGHTNING

RULE- LIGHTNING AND ELECTRIC FIELD WITH TRIGGERING POTENTIALS ARE NOT ALLOWED

IF FORECAST IS FOR 20% CHANCE OF LIGHTNING THEN TANKING WILL NOT BEGIN

WITHIN 5NM OF LAUNCH PAD, THE ONE MINUTE AVERAGE OF ELECTRIC INTENSITY MUST REMAIN BETWEEN +1KV/M TO -1KV/M

VALUES EXCEEDING THIS LIMIT ARE NOT ALLOWED

FORECAST

The forecast doesn't call for a thunderstorm with lightning potentials and strong electric intensity

So tanking is go from this point of view

5] PRECIPITATION

NOT ALLOWED AT LAUNCH PAD OR AROUND THE LAUNCH PAD

FORECAST- FORECAST CALLS FOR A 30% CHANCE OF RAINS AT LAUNCH WINDOW PERIOD AT KENNEDY SPACE CENTER,FL AND ACCUMULATION AROUND 1"

FORECAST WILL VERY ON THE LAUNCH DAY .

METD WEATHER FORECASTS- ITS A "GO OR NO GO" DECISION AND WILL BE BEST DECIDED ON THE LAUNCH DAY SEEING THE RADAR

6] CLOUD CEILING

RULE- DIRECT OBSERVATION OF SPACE SHUTTLE IS REQUIRED FOR FIRST 8000FT

SO CLOUD CEILING SHOULD BE ABOVE 8000FT

Forecast- Forecast calls for some low clouds of ceiling around 3000ft

The thickness of the clouds is expected to be low and might favor for a launch as in this case, clouds must be light

IN ALL,

METD WEATHER FORECASTS CALLS FOR A 66-70% ACCEPTABLE CONDITIONS AT THE LAUNCH TIME AS AROUND 4 RULES OUT OF 6 PROMINENTLY ARE ACCEPTABLE. NASA CALLS FOR A 70% FAVORABLE CHANCE WHICH IS NEAR TO METD WEATHER'S VALUE

** 30% UNACCEPTABLE CONDITIONS DUE TO LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD CEILING PROBLEM.

** GO OR NO GO FOR LAUNCH WILL BE BETTER DECIDED FEW HOURS TO THE LAUNCH SEEING THE RADAR



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