Sinabung Volcano First Historical Eruption

Alutsyah Luthfian Create your badge


Mount Sinabung is a 2 460 meters high Pleistocene-to-Holocene stratovolcano located in Tanah Karo Regency, North Sumatra Province of Indonesia. The migration of summit vents along N-S trending line has given an elongated form of its summit. The youngest crater of this conical andecitic to dacitic stratovolcano is at southern end of four overlapping craters. Solfataric activity WAS seen on its summit and upper flanks of Sinabung in 1912. there is no historical record of Sinabung eruption before today, as volcanological data from Indonesian Volcanism Bureau had been classified this volcano in Type B volcano, meaning that this volcano is never erupted before 1600 AD and features volcanic activity. Because it was included as a Type B volcano, (until today) there is no volcanism observatory at this mountain. All volcanic activity is observed from Medan. Now this volcano is classified into Type A, meaning that there is a known historical eruption of the volcano after 1600 AD.

Surono, the chairman of Geologic Hazard Mitigation and Volcanism Center was swear, "if Sinabung Volcano is gonna erupt, i have to put my position as a chairman". Now, the Sinabung volcano is erupt and i beg your swear! :-)

Aids has came to the disaster-affected region. The aids are mostly came in form of maskings, 75 government officers, foods, and other kind of logistics. I predicted that the ash from Sinabung will interfere some flight schedules from International Airport of Polonia 3 days from now, the cause is the ash will be directed North East. (based on GFS model).

SATURDAY, AUGUST 28, 2010
05.04 AM GMT (12.04 PM local time)
Sinabung volcano's activity is increasing, signed by the release of hot gases and water vapor. Lahars and ash rain is also reported by people living on Sinabung's flank. Villagers also heared thundering sound from the volcano. Some 26 000 villagers has fled to nearby city centers: Kabanjahe and Brastagi, also Medan and Pematang Siantar. They are evacuated to church and mosques and other social facilities. They don't want to go home before the official stated that the condition is secure.

5 years ago the Sinabung volcano was rumbling and roaring then followed with avalanche. However, it was not categorized as volcanic eruption.

05.15 PM GMT (Sunday, August 29, 2010--00.15 AM local time)

2 460 m Sinabung volcano started releasing molten lava. the lava fountain is visible from afar, spewing lava into the night sky and flow some into the flank. Hot ash with white to yellow color is spread into areas located tens kilometers. But in the morning, the lava fountain is not visible due to foggy weather.

03.00 AM GMT, Sunday, August 29, 2010

Refugees do riot at Regent's house asking for foods. They had been waiting for 8 hours in refuge camp. After the riot finished, the foods then came.

07.36 AM GMT, Sunday, August 29, 2010

One dies due to respiratory problem caused by Sinabung's ash.

10.37 AM GMT, Sunday, August 29, 2010

Geologists has sent to eruption site for determining whether the erupted material is containing Silicon. if the erupted material is containing silicon then the eruption is explosive and will last for months. That kind of long eruption was happened to Galungggung Volcano in West Java Province of Indonesia. The Galunggung volcano was slept since before 1600, then it awakes at 1983, caused 10 moths long explosive eruption.

10.00 PM GMT, Sunday, August 29, 2010

A 5-minute quake rattled villages near Mount Sinabung.

Early Morning of Friday, Sep 3, 2010 Local Time: Sinabung erupted for the second time.

COMPILED VIDEO OF SINABUNG ERUPTION

From August 29 - 30, 2010

I take attention of this volcano due to its reactivation after a very long quiescense

Sources:

thejakartapost.com (English)

ANTARA (English)

metrotvnews.com (Indonesian Language)

kompas.com (Indonesian Language)

volcano.si.edu (Smithsonian Volcanism Site)

The High speed Solar Wind stream from the coronal hole now striking the earth

I had almost forgotten the date- 24th August 2010 as I am currently engrossed in preparing a synopsis relating to a product innovated by me and titled briefly as "BEST FROM WASTE SOUND"

As was mentioned in the earlier post, A large or I w'd call wedge Coronal hole which was rotating towards the earth was expected to face the earth side of the sun by 24th August 2010

A coronal hole has an area of open magnetic fields which actually help in the intensification of the solar winds. The planetary k index or kp plot showed unsettled levels during the late night of August 23! The KP was 2 just before the midnight when it plunged to 4 and indicating unsettled level

There was a massive fluctuation in the Electron flux just after a massive stream of Solar wind hit the earth causing disturbances in the geomagnetic field of the earth!
Since this coronal hole is now facing the earth, I w'd expect more disturbances in the next 48hrs

This one is triggering Auroras in high latitude regions! People should remain alert for auroras in the high latitude areas on the next 2 days.

A coronal hole on sun will now face the earth

With no active sunspots currently facing the earth on sun, the coronal mass ejections and solar flares will remain quiet resulting in mostly stable earths magnetic field. a large coronal hole as shown in this x ray image of the sun will now be facing the earth resulting in release of tremendous solar wind which contains charged particles and plasma from the sun,s atmosphere. Since this will be facing the earth, there will be increase in the solar wind and can cause a glancing blow to earth magnetic field and people living in high latitude region will get to see active auroras in the sky due to this phenomena. The coronal holes contain open magnetic field which enables to intensify the present solar wind. I estimate it to reach before 24th aug. So auroras from 22nd only
Akshay Deoras
www.akshaydeoras.blogspot.com
www.metdweather.blogspot.com

S1 SOLAR RADIATION STORM EXPECTED ON THE EARTH

IN THE ABOVE PLOT OF THE PROTON FLUX THE 10MeV FLUX OR RED LINE HAS CROSSED THE 10pfu line. IT MEANS THE ONSET OF A SOLAR RADIATION STORM

NOAA HAS CONFIRMED A TYPE TWO RADIO EMISSION FROM THE SUN AT 0551UT AND ESTIMATED VELOCITY OF 545KM/SEC

THEN AT 0900UT, THE SDO PLOT HAS INDICATED THAT THE 10MeV PROTON FLUX will likely rise about 10 pfu

NOAA has issued an alert where it has mentioned a ONSET CONDITION for the S1 PREDICTED

SOLAR RADIATION STORM

Massive Cloud of Coronal Mass Ejection ejected from Sun on Wednesday. Might be heading towards the earth

IMAGES-

THE FIRST IMAGE IS OF THE LASCO C2. IT IS A CORONAGRAPH OF THE SUN TAKEN AT 0636. THE BRIGHT CORONAL MASS EJECTION CAN BE EASILY SEEN ON THE RIGHT PART OF THE SUN

2ND IMAGE IS A 6MIN EARLY IMAGE THAN THE FIRST ONE AND A LONG RANGE CORONAGRAPH

THE BRIGHT EXPLOSION IS THE CME!!

THIRD IMAGE -

THE 0658UT IMAGE OF SUN IN THE FE XVIII 94 ANGSTROM REGION OF SUN

YOU CAN SEE THE EXPLOSION ON THE UPPER RIGHT PART OF THE SUN

FOURTH IMAGE IS OF THE MAGNETOGRAM FROM SOHO

IT SHOWS OPP. POLES IN THE SUNSPOT 1098

Massive Cornonal Mass Ejection also designated as CME is now exploding from the sun associated with a CLass C4 flare!

At about 0600UT, The SDO X ray flux recorded a Class C4 solar flare ejected from the sun and then immediately datas from the coronagraph of SOHO confirmed that Sun is hurling MASSIVE CME which triggered after the solar flare! The SOHO MDI Magnetogram has been indicating that the opposite poles are present in the Sunspot 1098. So the magnetic fields around 1098 became repulsive(weak) and ejected a solar flare.
Soon after the flare, Coronal Mass Ejection was ejected.
I don't find any coming Solar Radiation storm as after the ejection at this time, the proton flux plot remained quiet unlike the previous time when a C4 caused a solar radiation storm on 14th August 2010. But some later plots can possibly indicate a minor storm
I have less information on the present side of earth as viewed from the sun but strongly believe that this CME is ejected towards the earth and mostly some part of it can likely give a glancing blew to earth's magnetic field by 21st August 2010

meanwhile, the previous estimates didn't materialize and the disturbance in the geomagnetic field of the earth remained less.

Sun emits many CME and Solar flares

I wanted to write this text yesterday only but was unable to do as I was partially ill

On Sunday, August 15, the sun emitted many solar flares along with notable Coronal mass ejection. AS being seen from the X ray flux, two B5 class solar flares were erupted near 0600UT,12UT then a B4 flare was emitted near 1500UT and the bigger!! a class C4 near 1800UT...

Many Coronal Mass ejections hurled from the sun during the entire day as a result of very weak magnetic fields around the sun and repulsive tendency. Three significant Coronal Mass Ejections were seen by the Solar Dynamic Observatory's coronagraphs.
None of this clouds are actually heading towards the earth but the CME from sunspot 1093 and 1099 could give a glancing blow to the earth as some plasma is heading towards the earth
It was the result of the end of complex eruptions which had taken place on 1093 and 1099. The CLass C4 flare is associated with it.

The geomagnetic field will have unsettled levels in the coming days due to many events.
The current increase in the activity is due a coronalhole high speed stream. Then the expected events on 17th and 18th (Unsettled KP levels and Auroras in high latitude areas) will be due to the Class C4 flare which had happened on August 14. Similarly some addition to this unsettled levels will be due to a part of the Coronal Mass Ejection associated with the Class C4 flare from 1093 and 1099 on August 15

So in all,
It will be bountiful week for high latitude areas as they will likely see good auroras everyday till August 19 (If no new CME takes place)

Solar Forecast
As I was thinking earlier regarding the formation of some new sunspots on the Solar Dynamic Observatory facing side of the sun, some new sunspots are mostly generating.
Two new sunspots are expected to form!
The Magnetogram of SOHO is showing some weak(repulsive natured) aka opposite polarity fields magnetic fields around 1093 and 1099 and also around the newly developing sunspots..
But the sunspot 1093 and 1099 will now be facing away from the the SDO side. Also the emerging sunspots have some opp polarity fields around them so some low class flares like B class is possible and less chance of C flare as its widespread unsettlement of fields and not around sunspots

NOAA forecasters are giving a 35% chance of ACTIVE GEOMAGNETIC STORM in next 24-48hrs in high latitude. So lets wait and see how the situation unfurls!

IMAGES-
THE X RAY FLUX PLOT FROM NOAA
AND SINCE I WAS UNABLE TO SEE THIS SITUATION YESTERDAY I HAVE USED SOME IMAGES OF THE CORONAGRAPH FROM SPACEWEATHER.COM

Sun is emitting solar flares and coronal mass ejection

The magnetic field of sun has become very unstable at some areas as being depicted by the magnetogram from solar dynamic observatory. The sun emitted a class C4 flare and on august 15 emitting many class B Flares. meanwhile from the C4 flare, the first solar radiation storm hit the earth. This was a minor one and hardly did anything other than affecting the magnetic field of the earth.
This was the first solar radiation storm in this solar cycle. Meanwhile, data from graphs of sdo indicate approaching coronal mass ejection will likely influence the earth on aug 17. Also, many coronal mass ejection has been happening on sunday

Sunspot 1093 and 1099 together emits a class C4 solar flare

UP

IN THE IMAGE YOU CAN SEE THE X RAY FLUX HITING C4 RANGE
The magnetic fields again got unstable on 14th August near to 10UT around the two near sunspots 1093 and 1099. The result was that a combined flare of magnitude Class 4 or C4 solar flare was emitted.

The entire activity lasted near to 2hrs. Also from the datas from SDO, a giant plasma was emitted in space so it possibly c'd have led to a minor Coronal Mass Ejection!

AS those two sunspots are facing away from earth, the emitted cloud of plasma will not reach the earth..

At the same time, as I was expecting on 14th August the solar wind which got emitted in space from the coronal hole which extended a large distance on sun FINALLY ARRIVED and now influencing the earth's magnetic field causing a Solar Radiation storm

A solar radiation storm happens when solar protons emitted from sun hit the earth. They are mostly deflected due to the magnetic field but cause a solar radiation storm!

NOAA has classified it as S1 which is a minor! as I had estimated

The onset was near 1022UT,14th August 2010.... Current speed of Solar wind is 419.7Km/sec and density of 1.8 protons/cm3 as of 1735UT

This minor storm will not cause any notable effects!

Solar activity is expected to remain quiet after 16th august as the two days, the high speed coronal stream will affect the earth

I think, some new sunspots will be developing on the SDO side of the sun in the coming days

Quiet Space Weather expected in the coming few days

ABOVE- THE SUNSPOT 1093 NOW HAS TWO DARK HOLES INSTEAD OF ONE DARK HOLE. THIS MEANS REDUCTION IN INTENSITY

The active sunspots are already facing away from sun. The CME which was emitted on 7th August reached earth on 10-11August and made a peak 3 Kp. It did make a good aurora show in high latitudes. No geomagnetic storm was triggered by it

Sunspot 1098 and 1097 are now moving on the earth-sun line side. As I expect no significant solar flares and especially coronal mass ejections from the spots 1097 and 1098, space weather will remain quiet BUT a gigantic coronal hole has been created.This hole starts from sunspot 1093 which has not split into two parts extending to the southern side of the earth. A strong solar wind will be eminent on the earth as the coronal hole is at the Sun-earth line. This solar wind will cause some very weak geomagnetic effect on the earth. I think the solar wind will peak by 14th august night and more on 15th august mid period. NO SUCH NOTABLE effects possible and some slight increase in auroras possible but it will not be EARTH SHATTERING.

The PERSID Meteor showers too are going in a good way with 35 perseids and hour and some fireballs also!

Still no signs of CME arrival

1ST IMAGE-

THE 3 DAY KP PLOT

2ND IMAGE-

THE AURORAL ORBIT OF 0653 UT ON AUG 11 2010

Nearly 24hrs have passed away from the predicted day of the arrival of the ejected Coronal Mass Ejection from the Sun which happened on 7th August evening.

The Planetary K index of Kp index remained very quiet on Tuesday thus concluding that there were no disturbances in the magnetic field of the earth

The reasons for this probably are the slow movement than expected of the Coronal Mass Ejection and also questions on its intensity

Data from SHO had shown that considerably good CME was ejected from sun and heading in the direction of the earth. If the CME is fast then it makes a very good impact on earth's magnetic field.

If it is slow then it doesn't make any notable effect on the earth's magnetic field.

However solar wind is blowing at 481 Km/sec but the density of proton has decreased

The maximum 24hr Kp was 3. Kp was 2 in the morning,dropped down to 1 and rose to 3 by night

THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT it has maintained the intensity for 6hrs on Wednesday and probably maintains in the arriving datas

My forecast says that Wednesday has the last chance of this storm impact

The intensity has to be less and possibly near a Kp 4-5.Chance of Kp 4 on wednesday- 40%

Kp 5- 10%

Still Auroras orbit shows good auroras in the Higher 60's and I will expect Auroras too in higher latitude also on WEDNESDAY

166 NOW KILLED AT LEH.TOLL INCREASING

The toll of the dead at leh has now risen to 166 with 400 missing

23 foreigners lost their lives in the flash flood

Three french,one Italian and person from Spandrid were killed

Three French citizens — Augavelis Henri, Hellot Jacques and Daniel Hauri, an Italian identified as Riccardo Titton and Maromas Maria Lousdes from Spain have been declared dead, they said.

Sixteen of those killed are from Nepal, namely Nema Zangmo, Tsering Neklal, Bakta Bahadur, Kama Lama, Ajay Raina, Khunchok Gelak, Lakpa Gyalmo, Shekhar, Mahurdin Ansari, Manee Patel, Ramesh Patel, Narai Badur Sume, Santosh Kumar, Nel Badur, Saryanareyan Chaudhary and Anil Chaudhary, they said.

Two other victims were Tibetans. They were identified as Pasang Tsering and Tsering Yangkyid, the sources said.

LEH-SRINAGAR ROAD-- CLOSED

LEH-MANALI ROAD -- CLOSED

The flight operations are on a full swing

The list of those who have died is put on-

leh.nic.in

Coronal Mass Ejection from 1093 sunspot now heading towards the earth

I have started receiving confirmations from the datas of Solar and Heliospheric observatory(SOHO) that a Coronal Mass ejection or CME which was ejected from Sun on August 7 2010 evening is heading towards the earth and will strike the earth on 10th August 2010

There was a slight disturbance in the planetary index on early August 9 which proved to be arrival of some early part of it after unsettled 2MeV electron flux exceeding 1000pfu

On August 10, the pfu also exceeded the 1000 pfu value and as a result of the images of CME heading towards earth and those datas, a Geomagnetic K index of 4 is being expected

This geomagnetic storm is not expected to be a big one but I am amazed to see that it can be bigger than expected.This one is likely going to affect the magnetic field of the earth on 10th August and will cause Brilliant auroras in the high latitude areas.

The NOAA scale is 30% chance of active geomagnetic storm in high latituded and a 25% in mid latitudes.So I think Auroras can be seen in polar regions, and in the 55 degree zones also!

The Sunspot 1093 is right now facing the earth, but I don't find another chance of eruption from it

However the sunspot 1096 is becoming active a low class flare will be possible as magnetic fields are unsettled there.

MY FORECAST-(ON EXPERIMENTAL BASIS SINCE I HAVE JUST STARTED FORECASTING)

A PARTIAL GEOMAGNETIC STORM WILL HIT THE EARTH ON AUGUST 10.

A NEAR G1 GEOMAGNETIC STORM WILL HIT. BUT KP SEEMS TO BE SETTING AT 4-5

AURORAL DISPLAY IS LIKELY IN HIGH LATITUDES

Some CME will now strike the earth

The Sunspot 1093 had emitted a Class M1 flare on August 7 at 1825UT. Nearly 48hrs have passed and some coronal mass ejection is likely to hit the earth causing a spectacular Auroral display in the polar regions.Though I don't expect a Solar Storm or NOAA ACTIVE storm as the ejection was away from the sun-earth line. As per the datas from NOAA Space Weather Prediction center,the electron 2MeV integral flux exceeded 1000 pfu. NOAA has issued a continued alert for it!

The Kp index is 4 which means it is unsettled. This also indicates the likely hood of approaching Solar storm which is likely going to affect the magnetic field and cause Auroras in polar regions.

Yesterday's maximum was 3562pfu.

There is a chance of a M class flare eruption in next 2-3 days from 1093 and a isolated chance of Geophysical activity in next 48hrs about 10%

MY PROBABILITY-

M FLARE- 10%

X FLARE- 1%

THE SUNSPOT 1093 WILL ROTATE TOWARDS EARTH IN NEXT 24-48HRS

IF ANYTHING MAKES THE MAGNETIC FIELD UNSTABLE THEN EARTH WILL DIRECTLY RECEIVE A SOLAR STORM.

AURORAS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGH LATITUDES AS THE KP INDEX IS 4 AND IS UNSETTLED.

Sunspot 1093 emits a Coronal Mass Ejection on August 7 night

The Sunspot no. 1093 on the earth facing side of the sun emitted a Coronal Mass Ejection on August 7

On August 7,1825UT The magnetic fields around1093 became unstable which triggered a Class M-1 Solar flare

which is indeed a strong flare as on the X-ray Flux scale

The 5 min data from GOES X-ray flux on 1825UT on 7th August showed a X ray flux less than 10 raised to -5 W/m^ . A Coronal Mass Ejection hurled from 1093 after the solar flare was emitted

But fortunately this ejection was away from Sun-Earth line so the ejection wasn't focused on earth.

But some charged particles with tons of plasma will head towards earth on Aug 9th-10th and will result in interraction with magnetic field and Aurora display around poles. Since the emission was not direct on earth, the Aurora activity will be limited in the polar regions and also in the upper 60N and lower 60S on nights of 9th and 10th August

RIGHT- THE SDO image of SUN on 8th August

You can see the active CME on the left central part of Sun

This will not be ANY SIGNIFICANT EVENT

The active 1093 spot will be rotating towards Earth and by this weekend to begin of next week, it will face earth.. If the magnetic field again becomes unstable, then signifi

cant solar flares can be emitted

RIGHT-

IMAGE VIA SPACETODAY SHOWING THE LOCATION OF PROMINENT ACTIVE SUNSPOT ON SUN.THE SOLAR SPOT 1092 HAD A C3 SOLAR FLARE ON AUGUST 1 WHICH TRIGGERED AURORAS ON NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE EARTH

UPDATE FROM LEH AND THE EMERGENCY NUMBER

Anyone wanting to enquire about the status of the injured or dead can contact on following numbers- 9906990613, 9906990833, 9906990807, 9906983544, 9906990748, 9906990835 and 9906990787.

With 48hrs passed from Leh incident, things have not changed at all despite military and local people are doing their best. The toll of dead is increasing everyday and now it is 130!

LEH'S Kushok Bakula Rimponchee airport's runway has been restored today. The Indian Air force operated two llyushin-76 aircraft and four antonov 32 aircraft to Leh carrying 125 persons from National Disaster Response Force(NDRF) carrying medicines, X ray machines,tents

The toll of dead is feared to go up and more injuries to see. There are still dozens of villages in Leh where relief hadn't reached and which still are in darkness.

There is simply nothing to write on this matter both in context of matter and my feelings

I am totally off due to bursts of tears when I see LEH photos..

LEH MASSIVE CLOUD BURST DETAILS

FROM METD WEATHER

metdweather.blogspot.com

ANOTHER ARTICLE ON THE CLOUDBURST CAN BE SEEN ON THE LINK GIVEN ABOVE

HOUSES DESTROYED IN LEH

SOURCE- AFP
ITS DIFFICULT FOR ME TO BELIEVE THAT SUCH A MASSIVE CLOUDBURST HAS HAPPENED IN LEH TRIGGERING SEVERE RAINS AND FLASH FLOODS

ACCORDING TO THE LOCALS, THE CLOUDBURST HAPPENED BETWEEN 12-2AM ON FRIDAY AND LASTED FOR A VERY SHORT TIME.

THE TOLL NOW RISES TO 103 AND ATLEAST 370 PEOPLE INJURED AS PER THE STATE POLICE.25 ARMY JAWAN ALSO MISSING

VILLAGES OF PHYANG, CHOGLAMSAR, SABU AND NIMOO ARE THE MOST HIT!

NIMOO IS ABOUT 40KM AWAY FROM LEH

PHYANG IS JUST 10-13KM FROM LEH

LEH AIRPORT HAS BEEN WATER AND MUD LOGGED, LEH NEW AND OLD BUS STAND ARE DESTROYED TOTALLY, ABOUT 200 STUDENTS WERE RESCUED FROM DRUK WHITE LOTUS SCHOOL OR SCHOOL SHOWN IN THE HINDI FILM 3 IDIOTS

THE BSNL LEH OFFICE, CRPF OFFICE, ITBP HEADQUARTER, A POLYTECHNIC COLLEGE IN LEH ALSO AFFECTED.

FAQ-

WHAT ARE CLOUD BURSTS

Cloud bursts are a type of rainfall that happens from high top clouds or cool topped clouds

Mostly it happens from a Cumulonimbus(CB) cloud. Warm, moist air keeps on rising in the clouds thus making an updraft of the clouds as most of the times there is updraft of moist air... This updraft prevents the clouds from causing a downpour as rain or Hails (In the CASE of CB cloud) falls as an downdraft of the cloud or the storm system.

In hilly regions, mountains are a barrier to this updrafts and cause the cloud to release the downdraft suddenly which lasts for a few minutes but causing a precipitation of 100mm in an hour.

Most of the times, there is hail, and thunder with the downdraft along with the rains.

Such cloudburst are most likely to trigger flash floods

THE PREVIOUS RECORDS OF HIGHEST RAIN RATE FROM CLOUDBURST HAS BEEN BROKEN BY THE LEH CLOUDBURST WHICH HAPPENED ON AUGUST 6 2010

Record Cloudbursts

Duration	Rainfall	Location	Date
1 minute	1.9 inches (48.26 mm)	Leh, Jammu Kashmir, India	06 August, 2010
1 minute	1.5 inches (38.10 mm)	Barot, Himachal Pradesh,India	26 November, 1970
5 minutes	2.43 inches (61.72 mm)	Port Bells, Panama	29 November, 1911
15 minutes	7.8 inches (198.12 mm)	Plumb Point, Jamaica	12 May, 1916
20 minutes	8.1 inches (205.74 mm)	Curtea-de-Arges, Romania	7 July, 1947
40 minutes	9.25 inches (234.95 mm)	Guinea, Virginia, USA	24 August, 1906

Source- Wikipedia.org for cloudbursts.

WHAT HAPPENED IN LEH ON 6TH AUGUST 2010

A SUDDEN AND SERIES OF CLOUDBURST STRIKED NEAR KHARDUNGLA PASS WHICH IS AT 18300FT ABOVE SEA LEVEL AND 39KMS FROM LEH.

THIS CLOUDBURST TRIGGERED RAINS IN LEH AND NEARBY AREAS AND AS MOST AREAS HAVE MUD HOUSES THEN HOUSES GOT COLLAPSED,

LEH MANALI ROAD ALSO WITNESSED CLOUDBURSTS NEAR ZINZINGBAR AS A RESULT MANY PEOPLE WERE STRANDED NEAR BARALACHA PASS.

ON LEH-SRINAGAR ROAD,

MANY LANDSLIDES AND MUD SLIDES WERE REPORTED ON THE WAY WITH SOME SEVERE NEAR CAPTIAN'S MODE ABT 100KM FROM SRINAGAR

METEOROLOGICAL HISTORY

SOME HEAVY RAIN PATCHES WERE SEEN IN EASTERN JAMMU AND KASHMIR

WITH SOME STRONG CAPE OVER LEH, THE UPDRAFTS W'D HAVE BEEN MASSIVE WITH TALL CLOUDS THOUGH NOTHING HAS BEEN RECORDED BY ME AS I DIDN'T FOCUS ON J&K LAST NIGHT

Entropy

With a lot of focus being given towards thermodynamics, I wish to write about Entropy

In all, Entropy is a crucial link of 2nd law of thermodynamics which says that Entropy of a isolates system which is not in equilibrium will tend to increase over a period of time, approaching the maximum at equilibrium and the entropy chances dS of a system undergoing infinitesimal reversible process is given by δq / T, whereδq is the heat supplied to the system and T is the absolute temperature of the system

Entropy is nothing but a macroscopic measure of microscopic disorder within a system. To explain in common language its the measure of disorder. Few common examples of deck of cards, Air conditioners, Die can be given

A deck of cards is very organised as all the cards are arranged properly. But when the game is over, the cards are scattered here and there. Thus the disorder happens and we can say entropy increases. A die is used to play board games. Entropy also is the a form of multiplicity

In a two die game, the probability of getting no. above 7 is higher than getting two or three.

Thus the multiplicity of getting a 7-8 no on die is more than getting 2 or 3

Thus Entropy of getting higher nos is more than lower nos

If we consider the property-

Entropy of a system which is isolated and not in equilibrium will increase over a period of time approaching maximum at equilibrium.

Air conditioner or AC has a indoor unit and one outdoor unit. AC is used to cool the air temp. inside the room. But AC does this only when the temperature of the outdoor unit increases

In other language- Entropy of the system can decrease only when it increases the entropy of the other system. thus entropy of indoor unit decreases when it increases entropy of outdoor unit

In Astrophysics and astronomy entropy of the universe is an important concept

Entropy of universe will increase over a period of time . It also means that all the activities happening in universe increase its entropy

A simple example is of thermal radiation. For it we consider a black hole

A black hole though rotating or non rotating has singularity in form of ring or non ring pattern.

Singularity is nothing but the concentration of dense matter or mass in zero volumed region thus making the space time curvature infinite...

Singularity has low entropy as the matter is in a organised fashion. At the microscopic level, there is some particle and anti particle separation and collision happening as per quantum mechanics. Once of this particle falls in the event horizon as seen by external observer and he also sees that the other particle is emitted by black hole, A black hole thus follows a perfect black body principle which allows it to emit thermal radiation at certain temp.

Thus emission of matter will allow the entropy of Black hole to increase.

The question arises is that If the ENTROPY of Universe will increase and is increasing then how come universe has a low entropy or more organised fashion and what about the entropy at the Big bang..

Lets go back in time---

When the big bang happened, matter was scattered everywhere in the universe. Though planets, stars were not formed but there were intense hydrogen clouds..Gravitational energy was the dominant force at that time. And heat energy, light energy were just getting formed due to conversions due to compressions of hydrogen clouds... Thus we can conclude that gravity was the only persistent force and the Universe was hotter at that time..Since then the universe is expanding and becoming cold. If the universe is becoming cool from hot temperatures then it means the universe is releasing its heat in form of heat energy is some other system as as per Second law, a system can become cool only when some other system kept in its contact increases..

Thus the total entropy of universe is increasing as the heat energy is increasing

So when a equilibrium stage happens that is no available energy to do work, there will be only heat energy remaining in the universe...

This is popularly called as Heat Death Of Universe. On the contrary, as most of the energy and heat providers i.e suns will die after many years, the temperature of the universe is expected to go down thus there is a so called - Freeze death of universe concept

Class C3 solar flare in a better way!

ABOVE- AT THE CENTER OF SUN, YOU CAN SEE THE SOLAR FLARE

IMAGE OF 16:28 UT

As mentioned in the previous article, A giant Solar Flare has erupted from the sun spot no. 1029 on sun. Solar flare occurs when Coronal Mass ejection or CME happens which occurs due to magnetic reconnection. In magnetic reconnection, magnetic field lines rearrange themselves opposite to the arrangement which causes a repulsive action releasing tremendous energy with hot plasma, electrons and other charged particles.

On August 1, a class C3 solar flare was ejected from the sunspot 1029 which is earth facing sun spot. So the flares headed towards the earth

IN THE ABOVE FALSE COLOR IMAGE OF SUN

YOU CAN SEE TWO MORE SOLAR FLARES ON THE LEFT SIDE OF IMG I.E RIGHT SIDE OF SUN

THEY ARE HEADING TO OTHER DIRECTION

THE IMAGE TO THE RIGHT IS THE SOLAR X RAY FLUX DATA TAKEN BY GOES SATELLITE

THERE YOU CAN SEE THE X RAY FLUX INCREASING ON AUG 2 which is termed as Class A. On August it was a CLASS C ejection

The classification of solar flares is done by comparing the X ray flux of it. I didn't get August 1 image where the Flare reached 10 raised to -6 Wm-2

you can find the solar flare video-

http://www.spaceweather.com/swpod2010/04aug10/globaldisruption.mov?PHPSESSID=ham1v6fcpr0n3p3kjgitsdgt62

A C3 Solar flare from sun hits the earth

IMAGE-

THIS IMAGE IS SLIDES OF SUN SPOT NO 1092 SIDE WHERE YOU CAN SEE THE SOLAR FLARE EXPANDING AS A SHOCKWAVE FROM LEFT TO RIGHT

THIS IS A TIMELAPSE OF 3:47-15:47UT,AUG 1
On August 1, A giant Coronal Mass Ejection or CME took place on the sun releasing many tons of plasma and other charged particles together called as Solar Wind

This happened from the solar spot 1092 at about 0855UT on AUG 1. A class C ejection is minor than class M and X ejection

All ejections ejected towards earth interact with Earth's magnetic field and with the oxygen and nitrogen atoms in earth's ionosphere. If nitrogen atom regains electron then it emits blue light and if it comes to ground state from excited state then it emits red. Oxygen emits green or brownish red light

Due to this Auroras are created in the upper layers of atmosphere which can be seen from polar regions depending on the strength. If the CME is too strong as happened in 1989 where the auroras were seen in Texas in USA, then auroras can be seen in lower latitudes also

auroras were reported yesterday in Denmark,Greenland,Germany,Northern USA

As NASA scientist and I have discovered that a Solar Storm is likely in May 2013 where the CME can be a class X ejection, Significant auroras will be seen all over the world and also some communication problems for 1-2 day..

AURORAS WILL BE SEEN ON 4TH AUGUST ALSO IN UPPER AND LOWER 50 MORE AT POLAR REGIONS. PLACES IN 0-50 LATITUDE WILL NOT SEE THE AURORAS

A VIDEO VIA TELEGRAPH.UK CAN BE SEEN HERE. THIS ONE SHOWS DENMARK AURORA

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/science-video/7926128/Spectacular-footage-of-aurora-borealis-in-Denmark.html

A DETAILED WRITE UP ON 2013 SOLAR STORM CAN BE SEEN HERE

http://akshaydeoras.blogspot.com/2010/06/sunspots-and-solar-flares-and-may-2013.html

AKG CELEBRATES- NATIONAL INNOVATION DAY

© 2010 AKSHAY DEORAS. NO IDEAS FROM THIS ARTICLE MUST BE COPIED OR USED WITHOUT MY PERMISSION.. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED

With the celebrations of Friendship day going on, I decided to celebrate a National Science Day on August 1 to encourage fellow students for making innovations and thinking on new innovative ideas.

Innovations can be in any field but I am going to write some innovative ideas which came in my mind and are coming as I think more--

1] SMART GAS STOVES-

On and average many people either get injured or are killed in accidents due to leakage of LPG and also due to leakages in the gas stoves.

most of the people forget to switch off their stove especially when they receive a call or they go to open the doors

If the stove's regulator is switched on and there is no ignition then the entire room gets filled with the gas and the risk of accidents increase.

This happens in India also and there are many many deaths due to this

So, I decided to apply some brain and try to modify the structure of gas stoves which can help to prevent such accidents

The design of the gas stove will be similar to the present one like no significant structural modification.. But electrical switches connected to electrical circuit will be used.. A thermal sensor will be attached to the stove. Human beings and other animals even insects have noted body temperature. Thermal sensors or infrared sensor easily detects animals or humans as we see in TV shows. If this sensor is attached, then when you go to the stove and switch on the switch or regulator and suddenly you have to attend a call, the thermal sensor will detect the absence of human in range. If we set a time like 5 seconds and if we don't appear in 5 seconds then the regulator will be switched off automatically thus preventing the gas to spread in the air.

When the gas is switched on and you use lighter for ignition, then gas becomes secured as its converted to fire instead of gas..

Less accidents happen when you have the burning going on for lot time. But problems like overflowing of Milk, Pressure cooker also takes place

IF the stoves can be designed like a microwave oven, then such problems can be avoided

As we have the electric circuit, we can also provide a timer switch. If we want to use stove for 5 mins then time can be set. After 5 minutes are done, then stove will switch off automatically just similar to microwave over

Q. IF THE STOVE HAS ALL THE FEATURES SIMILAR TO MICROWAVE OVEN, THEN WHY TO BUY A STOVE

A. Microwave ovens are very expensive than a stove. A food cooked in microwave oven is affected by the microwave radiation from the oven. Also Electricity consumption increases due to this. Stoves cost less and are eco friendly

Q. WHAT IS THE COST OF SMART STOVE

A.It will take near 700-800RS or 15US$

2] ECO FRIENDLY INDIAN TRAIN TOILETS

THE TOILETS OF INDIAN TRAIN ARE NOT VERY CLEAN AND ARE LESS HYGIENIC AS THE WASTE MATTER JUST FALLS ON THE RAILWAY TRACK THUS CREATING A SPREAD OF INFECTION

Innovation can be done! A central drainage system can be designed.. All the waste matter collected from different toilets of a train can be collected in a separate compartment connected to the train. Thus container can be emptied at suitable stations and one can make manure from it

Thus, the waste will not fall on railway tracks but will be suitably dumped

3] (C) 2010 AKSHAY DEORAS

USE OF THUMB PRINTS INSTEAD OF CARRYING CREDIT/ATM CARDS

SINCE I AM USING THIS IDEA FOR A CONTEST I CAN' T WRITE IT BEFORE IT IS SUBMITTED

4] USING GEARS IN FAN

SINCE CEILING FANS work on a principle of conversion of electric energy to mechanical and thus into wind, gears can be used in this principle. Use of gear will speed up the fan more thus providing more wind energy in less electric energy

If anyone has any innovative idea then he is most welcome to comment on this article

Akshay Deoras