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Thursday, October 28, 2010

Possible M class flare from Sunspot 1117,Likely Small Geomagnetic storm on earth on 29-30 OCT


SEVERE SOLARWX
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster

As seen in the SOHO coronagraph,
A bright object is passing infront of the earth facing side of the Sun. That bright object is Planet Venus!. Venus is making a pass between Earth and Sun and will continue to appear on the Coronagraph for the next few days. Also seen in the above image is Planet Mercury and Spica


2] GIGANTIC SUNSPOT 1117
In the last few days, Sunspot 1117, has grown very bigger and has transformed from a alpha sunspot to Beta Gamma sunspot.
Alpha sunspot is a sunspot which has only one pole and Beta-Gamma is a sunspot having both the opposite poles situated in a very complex manner such that we can't draw a single continuous line between the opposite poles. i.e Magnetic field line!
When such arrangement takes place, M class
Solar Flare along with CME erruptions become possible due to the differential magnetic reconnection happening in this case.

IF THERE IS A M CLASS ERUPTION FROM 1117 IN THESE 2-3 DAYS THEN THAT WILL BECOME GEOEFFECTIVE FOR EARTH AND MIGHT CAUSE SOME DISTURBANCE IN EARTH'S GEOMAGNETIC FIELD
















3] ISOLATED "ACTIVE GEOMAGNETIC STORM " CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
As mentioned in the previous text,
Coronal Mass Ejection hurled from Sun on 26th Oct 2010 is on its way towards the earth as seen from Beacon data. The STEREO AHEAD HI2 image is showing CME is heading towards the earth and is likely to give a glancing blow on late period of Oct 29 2010 to 30th Oct 2010
I expect beautiful auroras also with some minor Geomagnetic storm in upcoming time.



STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES AT

http://www.facebook.com/pages/Severe-Solar-Weather-forecast/112556765473804