Mysterious CME hits the earth?

SEVERE SOLARWX
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster

Has the 9th March event CME hit the earth??
The question seems to be coming up as datas from ACE satellite clearly indicates the geomagnetic sudden impulse shortly after 12PM GMT. However the Space Weather Prediction Center has not issued any Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse advisory ? The latest available on their website is

2012-03-11 15:07 UTC  Solar Radiation Storm Declining, Awaiting Geomagnetic Storm

The coronal mass ejection associated with the R2 (Moderate) Radio Blackout that occurred at 0353 UTC March 9 (10:53 p.m. EST March 8) was expected to cause more geomagnetic storming beginning early on March 11, with intensities likely to reach the G3 (Strong) level. That CME hasn’t arrived as early as predicted, so stay tuned for updates as the day progresses. The coronal mass ejection associated with the R2 (Moderate) Radio Blackout event from 1744 UTC March 10 (12:44 p.m. EST March 10) should start to affect Earth late on March 12 to early on March 13, with intensities lower than those observed with the events of last week; forecast specifics are still in work. Meanwhile, the Solar Radiation Storm continues its decay and is currently at the S1 (Minor) level. Region 1429 remains complex, but is showing signs of weakening. Updates here as conditions warrant.

This is surprising! The Magnetometer at Boulder,Colorado shows a strong variation in the H ( Northward ) component and D ( southward) component ( MAGNETIC SOUTH AND NORTH **) 

indicating that there has been an external applied,variational magnetic field which a Solar wind induced CME can generate

Further here is a gist of data available- 

Here you can observe that there is a deflection produced of maximum 22.1nT or K index of 3.1 suggesting a CME hit

Thus SSW CONFIRMS a CME hit! 

The IMF Bz vector initially had a South polarity ( 1600UT) but is turning North and hence again will affect the storming

In all, if a storming is produced then it shall not cross G1 level and definitely not G3 which I wonder why SWPC expects

Nevertheless, the CME of 10th Mar IS ALL SET TO MAKE A POWERFUL IMPACT ON EARLY PERIODS OF 13TH MARCH 2012 RESULTING IN STORMING ON 13,14TH ALSO

STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES!!

Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse at ACE spacecraft as 9th March CME arrives

SEVERE SOLARWX
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster

As was expected, the CME from 9th March 2012 M class event has arrived at the ACE spacecraft producing a very slow impact ( small deviation). The Impulse data is rising up ( Bt component ) reaching over 10nT

The IMF Bz is northwards now as was expected and hence initially geomagnetic storming is unlikely

STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES

Geomagnetic Storming expected today,Major one expected o 12th

SEVERE SOLARWX
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster

The M 6.3 Solar Flare of 9th Mar 2012 produced a Coronal Mass Ejection which is heading towards the Earth and is expected to land today. The initial estimates suggested that the CME was moving for an indirect collision with the Earth's Magnetosphere due to which the anticipated intensity was being considered as less. However the Space Weather Prediction Center in their recent update mentioned that they are expecting a G3 level storming!

However, the updated model analysis still shows that the momentum of the impact will be less and given the expected Northward polarity of Bz vector of IMF, the Geomagnetic Storming will have a weak start that is a G1 initially.

Moreover, SSW expects the storm to be a G1 or at the most a G2 storm. 

M 8.4 Solar Flare of 10th Mar 2012


On 1715 UT,10th Mar the sunspot 1429 produced a M 8.4 Solar Flare. There was a Major Coronal Mass Ejection associated with the flare easily noted by the STEREO Spacecraft. 


SEE THE VIDEO HERE 

THE CME IS A FAST MOVING CME AND HAS HIGH MOMENTUM. 

THE CME FROM THIS EVENT IS EXPECTED TO HIT THE EARTH'S MAGNETIC FIELD ON 12TH MARCH 2012 I.E TOMORROW NIGHT GMT 

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE GEOMAGNETIC STORMING WITH LEVELS EASILY ELEVATING TO G3

MEGA-GEOMAGNETIC STORM

THE EARTH'S MAGNETIC FIELD IN RECENT HAS RECEIVED MULTIPLE SHOCKWAVES DUE TO MANY CME AND IN CONTINUATION IS EXPECTED TO GET A DOUBLE-HIT

THE FIRST CME FROM 9TH MARCH EVENT WILL ARRIVE TODAY WITH STORMING BEGINNING FROM NIGHT GMT AND WILL DECLINE OR CONTINUE TILL 12TH MARCH 2012

AFTER THE EVENT RELAXES, CME FROM 10TH MARCH EVENT WILL HIT BY EVENING OR NIGHT WHICH WILL BE STRONGER THAN THE 9TH MARCH EVENT

THUS A MEGA-GEOMAGNETIC STORMING WILL UNFURL AND AURORAS AGAIN WILL BE SEEN IN THE MID-LATITUDES AND THE POLAR REGIONS

ONGOING SOLAR RADIATION STORM- 

THE HISTORIC SOLAR RADIATION STORM IS FINALLY DECLINING AND IS AT THE S1 LEVEL!

I AM STILL VERIFYING WHETHER THE 10TH MARCH EVENT DID SEND SOME PROTONS OR NOT. IT NORMALLY DOESN'T TAKE SO MUCH TIME FOR PROTONS TO ARRIVE

HOWEVER, AS THE CME FROM M8.4 FLARE ARRIVES, THERE WILL BE AN UPSURGE IN THE PROTON FLUX AND HENCE REVIVING THE SOLAR RADIATION STORM!

STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES!!!