SEVERE SOLARWX
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster
The M 6.3 Solar Flare of 9th Mar 2012 produced a Coronal Mass Ejection which is heading towards the Earth and is expected to land today. The initial estimates suggested that the CME was moving for an indirect collision with the Earth's Magnetosphere due to which the anticipated intensity was being considered as less. However the Space Weather Prediction Center in their recent update mentioned that they are expecting a G3 level storming!
However, the updated model analysis still shows that the momentum of the impact will be less and given the expected Northward polarity of Bz vector of IMF, the Geomagnetic Storming will have a weak start that is a G1 initially.
Moreover, SSW expects the storm to be a G1 or at the most a G2 storm.
M 8.4 Solar Flare of 10th Mar 2012
On 1715 UT,10th Mar the sunspot 1429 produced a M 8.4 Solar Flare. There was a Major Coronal Mass Ejection associated with the flare easily noted by the STEREO Spacecraft.
SEE THE VIDEO HERE
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Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster
The M 6.3 Solar Flare of 9th Mar 2012 produced a Coronal Mass Ejection which is heading towards the Earth and is expected to land today. The initial estimates suggested that the CME was moving for an indirect collision with the Earth's Magnetosphere due to which the anticipated intensity was being considered as less. However the Space Weather Prediction Center in their recent update mentioned that they are expecting a G3 level storming!
However, the updated model analysis still shows that the momentum of the impact will be less and given the expected Northward polarity of Bz vector of IMF, the Geomagnetic Storming will have a weak start that is a G1 initially.
Moreover, SSW expects the storm to be a G1 or at the most a G2 storm.
M 8.4 Solar Flare of 10th Mar 2012
On 1715 UT,10th Mar the sunspot 1429 produced a M 8.4 Solar Flare. There was a Major Coronal Mass Ejection associated with the flare easily noted by the STEREO Spacecraft.
SEE THE VIDEO HERE
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THE CME IS A FAST MOVING CME AND HAS HIGH MOMENTUM.
THE CME FROM THIS EVENT IS EXPECTED TO HIT THE EARTH'S MAGNETIC FIELD ON 12TH MARCH 2012 I.E TOMORROW NIGHT GMT
THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE GEOMAGNETIC STORMING WITH LEVELS EASILY ELEVATING TO G3
MEGA-GEOMAGNETIC STORM
THE EARTH'S MAGNETIC FIELD IN RECENT HAS RECEIVED MULTIPLE SHOCKWAVES DUE TO MANY CME AND IN CONTINUATION IS EXPECTED TO GET A DOUBLE-HIT
THE FIRST CME FROM 9TH MARCH EVENT WILL ARRIVE TODAY WITH STORMING BEGINNING FROM NIGHT GMT AND WILL DECLINE OR CONTINUE TILL 12TH MARCH 2012
AFTER THE EVENT RELAXES, CME FROM 10TH MARCH EVENT WILL HIT BY EVENING OR NIGHT WHICH WILL BE STRONGER THAN THE 9TH MARCH EVENT
THUS A MEGA-GEOMAGNETIC STORMING WILL UNFURL AND AURORAS AGAIN WILL BE SEEN IN THE MID-LATITUDES AND THE POLAR REGIONS
ONGOING SOLAR RADIATION STORM-
THE HISTORIC SOLAR RADIATION STORM IS FINALLY DECLINING AND IS AT THE S1 LEVEL!
I AM STILL VERIFYING WHETHER THE 10TH MARCH EVENT DID SEND SOME PROTONS OR NOT. IT NORMALLY DOESN'T TAKE SO MUCH TIME FOR PROTONS TO ARRIVE
HOWEVER, AS THE CME FROM M8.4 FLARE ARRIVES, THERE WILL BE AN UPSURGE IN THE PROTON FLUX AND HENCE REVIVING THE SOLAR RADIATION STORM!
STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES!!!
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