Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse! CME arrives earlier than SSW forecast

SEVERE SOLARWX
AKSHAY DEORAS
SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTER

THE CME FROM THE JAN 23RD SOLAR FLARE HAS ARRIVED AND HAS CAUSED A GEOMAGNETIC SUDDEN IMPULSE.
STAY TUNED FOR MORE UPDATES!

Akshay Deoras
www.akshaydeoras.blogspot.com
www.metdweather.blogspot.com

Major Geomagnetic Storming expected due to CME of M9 class flare

SEVERE SOLARWX
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster

A MAJOR GEOMAGNETIC STORMING IS LIKELY FROM TONIGHT ( GMT) OVER 25TH JAN 2012


The Mega-flare of January 23rd, which released massive and very very fast moving CME towards the Earth is expected to cause a Major Geomagnetic Storming. Initial estimates from the Goddard Space Flight Center confirm that the CME speed was over 2200km/sec when released !

The arriving models are confirming that the CME is Earth-directed and likely to hit the Earth's Magnetic Field on night hours of 24th Jan 2012 today ( GMT).

As the momentum of CME is very high, it will definitely give a very strong hit to the Earth's magnetic field which definitely will trigger Major Geomagnetic Storm

The estimates are suggesting that the Geomagnetic Storming level can reach upto G3 level which the Space Weather Prediction Center of NOAA also suggests.

Attached below is the model which shows the approaching CME

Below model image shows CME just before the impact-

Highlights-


A VERY STRONG CME IS HEADING TOWARDS THE EARTH AND WILL HIT THE EARTH'S MAGNETIC FIELD ON NIGHT HOURS ( GMT) OF 24TH JAN 2012


* A MODERATE TO STRONG GEOMAGNETIC STORM UPTO G3 LEVEL IS EXPECTED DUE TO IT

* THE MEGA FLARE ALSO BOOSTED SOLAR PROTONS WHICH HAS CAUSED A S3 LEVEL SOLAR RADIATION STORM WHICH LAST HAPPENED IN 2005. 


* THE FLIGHTS TRAVELLING IN POLAR ORBIT ( POLAR ROUTE) WERE EXPECTED TO MAKE A PATH CHANGE TO AVOID EXPOSURE TO RADIATION!


* THE CME WILL SPARKLE AURORAS IN HIGH LATITUDE AND LIKELY IN LOW LATITUDE AREAS ALSO. 


STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES @ 


http://www.facebook.com/pages/Severe-Solar-Weather-forecast/112556765473804

M9 Class Solar Flare with CME released towards the Earth

A Major Solar Flare ( M9+) is in progress and has caused a Radio Blackout R2

monitor the situation LIVE

HERE

Update- 
0520hrs UTC,23rd Jan 2012


The Solar Flare has been recorded as an M9 or the last level of the M class flare! Coronal Mass Ejection has taken place which is heading towards the earth due to the geo-effective position. The source of this Solar flare seems to be the region AR 1402 and not the AR 1401

STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES

Moderate Geomagnetic Storming possible ahead of CME release from M3 Solar Flare

SEVERE SOLARWX
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster

The nearly quiet space weather has activated after a brief gap considering the 1-Month ( Dec 2011) avg sunspot number to be less ( decreased value) after Nov 2011 as per Solar IPS.The observed no is 73.0 as against the predicted of ~ 72 for Dec 2011

More over, the Sunspot no of Nov 2011 was as high as 96.7 as against the predicted ~ 69 

With this, the sunspot no. has decreased from its previous month after June 2011. 

However the Sunspot region 1401 produced a Strong M3 class Solar Flare yesterday,19th Jan 2012 at around 1515-1630hrs UT

The Solar Flare caused R1 Radio Blackout  ( associated with X ray emission of the Solar Flare) reached the earth and impacted the Ionosphere

Have a look at the STEREO image of the CME release here

The CME is an Earth-directed one which has been confirmed through the model guidance. It does appear that the CME will hit the Earth's magnetic field sometime around early morning hours of Jan 22nd 2012 ( UTC ). The intensity is being monitored closely and I shall update later on it due to shortage of time now. 

However I do expect a Moderate Geomagnetic Storming ( G=2) around with plenty of Auroras reserved for the high latitude areas. 

Solar Weather Forecast-

I w'd like to discuss two aspects I am observing now from the Solar Dynamic Observatory images of Sun. 

1] As seen from the above imagery of magnetic lines, it does appear that Sunspot 1401 ( Visible as lower part of the two giant whitish region in North-Central part of sun) has symmetric magnetic field. 

As per the paper of SSW, sunspots having symmetric magnetic field posses energy for high end solar flares. 

I expect this sunspot to hurl some more high end M class flares to minor X ray flares in the coming days which are likely going to be earth-directed! 

Secondly, 

There appears a very large and marked Coronal Loop of the Sunspot 1402 just above the sunspot 1401. The coronal loops are those structures which extend in the  Solar Corona and anchored below the chromosphere in Solar Transition Region. Its a belief that in these coronal loops, there are ongoing heat transfer in them with the associated magnetic field. 

Some reports claim that when such coronal loops break, CME happen releasing tons of solar wind in the space. It will be an opportunity to study how there coronal loops behave at this time. 

Stay tuned for the updates!