Moderate Geomagnetic Storming possible ahead of CME release from M3 Solar Flare

SEVERE SOLARWX
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster

The nearly quiet space weather has activated after a brief gap considering the 1-Month ( Dec 2011) avg sunspot number to be less ( decreased value) after Nov 2011 as per Solar IPS.The observed no is 73.0 as against the predicted of ~ 72 for Dec 2011

More over, the Sunspot no of Nov 2011 was as high as 96.7 as against the predicted ~ 69 

With this, the sunspot no. has decreased from its previous month after June 2011. 

However the Sunspot region 1401 produced a Strong M3 class Solar Flare yesterday,19th Jan 2012 at around 1515-1630hrs UT

The Solar Flare caused R1 Radio Blackout  ( associated with X ray emission of the Solar Flare) reached the earth and impacted the Ionosphere

Have a look at the STEREO image of the CME release here

The CME is an Earth-directed one which has been confirmed through the model guidance. It does appear that the CME will hit the Earth's magnetic field sometime around early morning hours of Jan 22nd 2012 ( UTC ). The intensity is being monitored closely and I shall update later on it due to shortage of time now. 

However I do expect a Moderate Geomagnetic Storming ( G=2) around with plenty of Auroras reserved for the high latitude areas. 

Solar Weather Forecast-

I w'd like to discuss two aspects I am observing now from the Solar Dynamic Observatory images of Sun. 

1] As seen from the above imagery of magnetic lines, it does appear that Sunspot 1401 ( Visible as lower part of the two giant whitish region in North-Central part of sun) has symmetric magnetic field. 

As per the paper of SSW, sunspots having symmetric magnetic field posses energy for high end solar flares. 

I expect this sunspot to hurl some more high end M class flares to minor X ray flares in the coming days which are likely going to be earth-directed! 

Secondly, 

There appears a very large and marked Coronal Loop of the Sunspot 1402 just above the sunspot 1401. The coronal loops are those structures which extend in the  Solar Corona and anchored below the chromosphere in Solar Transition Region. Its a belief that in these coronal loops, there are ongoing heat transfer in them with the associated magnetic field. 

Some reports claim that when such coronal loops break, CME happen releasing tons of solar wind in the space. It will be an opportunity to study how there coronal loops behave at this time. 

Stay tuned for the updates!