Very large Coronal Hole on the Sun! Likely for a Geomagnetic storm

FIRST IMAGE OF LATE NIGHT PERIOD ON 29TH JAN 2011 SHOWING THE FIRST APPEARANCE OF CORONAL HOLE.

THE SECOND IMAGE IS OF 30TH JAN 2011 SHOWING CORONAL HOLE HAS STARTED ROTATING TOWARDS GEOEFFECTIVE POSITION

SEVERE SOLARWX

Akshay Deoras

Severe Space Weather Forecaster

A very large coronal hole has appeared on the surface of the sun and is rotating towards the Geoeffective position. Coronal Hole are the dark cooler areas on the corona of the sun where there are open magnetic fields ( Unipolar magnetic field) which permit the outflow of solar wind or the high speed coronal hole stream which brings a geomagnetic storm on the earth as the magnetic field of the earth becomes unsettled when the charged particles from the coronal stream strike it.

The coronal hole in in the Northern Hemisphere of the sun and is expected to become Geoeffective

( position from where earth is affected ) very soon as a result of which a geomagnetic storm is likely with Auroras at high latitude regions on the earth.

Unsettled levels in the Kp index ( Indicator of storming conditions) shall remain unsettled on 1st Feb 2011 and Auroras shall be visible in high latitude regions between 1st Feb to 4th Feb or so

A M1 class Solar Flare was erupted from the sun on Jan 28 2011 with giant Coronal Mass Ejection

but the will not affect the earth

Massive Earthquake strikes South Western Pakistan. Tremors felt in India

THE INTENSITY REPORTS FROM DIFFERENT AREAS IN ASIA

THE GRAPH SHOWING DECREASE IN INTENSITY WITH RESPECT TO DISTANCE

THE USGC SHAKE MAP SHOWING MAX.EFFECT NEAR THE EPICENTER

A 7.2 magnitude earthquake on richter scale was recorded in the South Western Periphery of Pakistan close to Afghanisthan border area with the epicenter at isolated region at 28.8382N,63.9473E ( of the order of following distances below)

DISTANCE FROM EPICENTER-

45 km (30 miles) W of Dalbandin, Pakistan

260 km (160 miles) W of Kalat, Pakistan
310 km (190 miles) ESE of Zahedan, Iran
1035 km (640 miles) WSW of ISLAMABAD, Pakistan

1290km from New Delhi

1077km from Ahmedabad

1242km from Dharamshala,Himachal Pradesh

TIMINGS OF EARTHQUAKE

Earthquake was reported at 20:23:26UTC ( 18th Jan 2011) i.e 01:23:26AM LT(19th Jan 2011) at epicenter

THE DEPTH OF THE EARTHQUAKE WAS AROUND 84KM.

( DEPTH OF EARTHQUAKE IS THE AREA WHERE EARTHQUAKE BEGINS TO RUPTURE.

THIS HEIGHT IS RECORDED BELOW SEA LEVEL OR BELOW THE SEISMOLOGY OBSERVATORY)

Tremors of the earthquake were felt at multiple places stretching from Riyadh city,Dubai city,Tehran,Samarkand( Uzbekistan),Kabul,Gwalior( India) and as south as Bangalore( India).

The USGC received responses from -

Dharmashala - Where the Intensity was reported V ( FIVE) ( Moderate Shaking and Light damage expected)

In Pilani, INTENSITY V ( 5) was reported which means Moderate Shaking and minor damage.

Delhi, Gwalior,Noida - Intensity IV( 4) where minor shaking with no damage was recorded

Chandigarh,Jaipur,Jodhpur,Jaisalmer,Mumbai and Bangalore- Intensity- III ( Weak Shaking of the ground and no damage)

The Earthquake's maximum effect ( Intensity ) was reported at

Naushahro Firoz ( In Sindh region),Pakistan and Rudbar in Afghanisthan ( Where INTENSITY WAS VI,6)

In rest areas of the list, Intensty of III,II and I was reported

DAMAGE REPORTS

1} Several Houses were collapsed and damaged in Quetta

** No death reports till yet

2] One person has died due to wall collapse in Pakistan

More damage reports shall be coming as Earthquake must have created extensive damage in Pakistan.In quetta, A woman died of Heart Attack after the earthquake

3] No casualties reported in India

MERCALLI INTENSITY SCALE ( GIVEN BELOW)

COMPARE THE VALUES REPORTED AT PLACES WITH THE DEFINED DAMAGE GIVEN BELOW

I. Instrumental	Not felt by many people unless in favourable conditions.
II. Weak	Felt only by a few people at best, especially on the upper floors of buildings. Delicately suspended objects may swing.
III. Slight	Felt quite noticeably by people indoors, especially on the upper floors of buildings. Many do not recognize it as an earthquake. Standing motor cars may rock slightly. Vibration similar to the passing of a truck. Duration estimated.
IV. Moderate	Felt indoors by many people, outdoors by few people during the day. At night, some awakened. Dishes, windows, doors disturbed; walls make cracking sound. Sensation like heavy truck striking building. Standing motor cars rock noticeably. Dishes and windows rattle alarmingly.
V. Rather Strong	Felt outside by most, may not be felt by some outside in non-favourable conditions. Dishes and windows may break and large bells will ring. Vibrations like large train passing close to house.
VI. Strong	Felt by all; many frightened and run outdoors, walk unsteadily. Windows, dishes, glassware broken; books fall off shelves; some heavy furniture moved or overturned; a few instances of fallen plaster. Damage slight.
VII. Very Strong	Difficult to stand; furniture broken; damage negligible in building of good design and construction; slight to moderate in well-built ordinary structures; considerable damage in poorly built or badly designed structures; some chimneys broken. Noticed by people driving motor cars.
VIII. Destructive	Damage slight in specially designed structures; considerable in ordinary substantial buildings with partial collapse. Damage great in poorly built structures. Fall of chimneys, factory stacks, columns, monuments, walls Heavy furniture moved.
IX. Violent	General panic; damage considerable in specially designed structures, well designed frame structures thrown out of plumb. Damage great in substantial buildings, with partial collapse. Buildings shifted off foundations.
X. Intense	Some well built wooden structures destroyed; most masonry and frame structures destroyed with foundation. Rails bent.
XI. Extreme	Few, if any masonry structures remain standing. Bridges destroyed. Rails bent greatly.
XII. Cataclysmic	Total destruction - Everything is destroyed. Lines of sight and level distorted. Objects thrown into the air. The ground moves in waves or ripples. Large amounts of rock move position. Landscape altered, or leveled by several meters. In some cases, even the routes of rivers are changed.

UPPER ATMOSPHERIC LIGHTNING FROM THUNDERSTORMS AND ANTIMATTER FORMATION

ABOVE IMAGE SHOWING THE LOCATIONS OF SPRITES,BLUE JETS,GAMMA RAY FLASH( TGF),RUNWAY ELECTRONS.

Antimatter formation from Thunderstorms

In a recent discovery announced on 11th Jan 2011, Scientists have detected beams of antimatter produced above a Thunderstorm.

I being a Severe Weather Forecaster with an experience of near 2 years will like to explain the entire scenario as follows

1] Thunderstorm -

Thunderstorm in layman language is a storm that specially can produce lightning,thunder,hails and high velocity winds,rains and in some cases Thundersnow.Scientifically, Thunderstorm is called as an Electrical Storm.

Formation-

Some basic ingredients are required for the formation of a thunderstorm which are moisture,lifting force,Instability.

When there is a blend of moisture in lower level of atmosphere when the dew point temp is over 12C. Thunderstorm formation process also referred as Convection begins.

Convection begins when there is plenty of Instability ( Measured as Convective Available Potential Energy_ CAPE) which happens when the rising parcel of air is warmer than the surrounding environmental air resulting in a positive buoyancy. A lifting force is required for the air to rise. This lifting force is nothing but the rising of less density warmer air.

When all ingredients meet i.e warm air is rising in a moist environment in a unstable atmosphere, warm air stars colliding with cool air in saturated environment leading to condensation where water vapors cool down to form liquid droplets which further cool down to ice crystals called as Clouds WHEN THE WARM AIR EXITS THE SYSTEM AT THE TOP OF THUNDERSTORM CLOUD KNOWN AS ANVILS.

When this rising process continues for a prolonged period, a cloud type known as Cumulonimbus cloud forms which expands vertically instead of expanding horizontally.

Thus a thunderstorm is formed. Due to the difference in mass of ice and water at various positions in thunderstorm, electrical charges and electric potential difference builds up!

When this Electric Potential Difference becomes very large, there is a flash of lightning

Upper Atmospheric Lightning

- Sprites,Blue Jets,Blue Starters,Gigantic Jets,Elves,Terrestrial Gamma Ray flash(TGF)

Many readers may be reading this section for the first time.

As a bolt of lightning strikes down the earth due to large electric potential difference, at the same time there are multiple electric discharges ABOVE A THUNDERSTORM.

These electric discharges above a thunderstorm are known as Upper Atmospheric Lightning.

I have explained SPRITES and TGF below

- SPRITES

Sprites are the massive electric discharges happening above atmosphere starting from an altitude of around 35-40 km till altitude of 90km above sea level.( faint in 35-40 km range and then very bright)

(RIGHT- THE FIRST ACTUAL IMAGE OF SPRITE TAKEN ON 4TH JULY 1994. )

These sprites appear Reddish-Orange color. When there is a positive lightning ( Anvil

to ground lightning) there is an electrical discharge vertically above anvil of thunderstorm which is Sprite.

Terrestrial Gamma-Ray Flash( TGF)

Another product of thunderstorm is TGF. TGF is a burst of gamma rays which happens due to the following process

ANTIMATTER FORMATION

The cosmic rays actually provides electrons which strikes the air inside a thunderstorm. Due to the electric field of thunderstorm, these electrons ionize and some of them are further accelerated in vertical direction. During this process ,these electrons collide with atoms of air and this leads to emission of Gamma Rays and the process is TGF

Now as these Gamma Rays are produces, some electrons using this gamma ray energy become Relativistic electrons( Electrons Travelling at the speed of light) .

When such high velocity gamma rays pass through nucleus, electrons and its anti-

positron is produced. The positron is a particle having negligible mass but charge equal to +1 unit which is an ANTI Electron.

But the Gamma ray blasts off electron and so its remaining component( Positron) is released in Space.

Thus antiparticle of electron is released during thunderstorms.

Tampa Airport's Runway Closed to reprint Runway numeric designations due to Magnetic North Pole movement

( AERIAL VIEW OF TAMPA AIRPORT. The Runway number being changed is of the long vertical runway at the left of the image)

( The Heading alignment circle)

Tampa Airport in USA was closed down till Jan 13 2011 by the authorities to reprint the numeric designations at the end of the runway and change the Taxiway signs DUE TO THE NOTED EFFECTS OF THE SHIFT OF EARTH'S MAGNETIC NORTH POLE AND INCREASE IN MAGNETIC DECLINATION AT TAMPA AIRPORT

1} Rules of numeric representation at the Runway ends.

The orientation numbers at the end of the runway are written in numeric value between (01 - 36) which is 1/10th of the magnetic azimuth of runways heading allignment with respect to Geographical north pole

That is if 9 is written it means 90 deg from east and meaning runway is East-West oriented.

If 18 is written it means 180 deg and runway is South-North at that point.

If its 27 it means 270 deg meaning runway from West to East and 36 written means 360deg and indicating runway from North-South with that approach line.

But these numeric representations work well only for areas away from the North Magnetic pole where magnetic declination ( Angle between the line of Geographic north pole and the magnetic north pole) is less.

But for Airports lying in the Northern Domestic Airspaces of Canada lie near to the magnetic north and for them the Magnetic declination is very large which affects the numeric representations of runways a lot!

2) Tampa airport closed

Tampa is a gulf coast bay city in USA. The main runway currently named as 18R,36L meaning Runway pointed north at 360 deg heading allignment from south.

But at present Magnetic North Pole is approaching Russia by 64km every year and was at 82.7N,114.4W in 2005.

So considering the large magnetic declination now in Tampa authorities have decided to change the number. The Runway headings are rounded to nearest 10 degrees. So if the magnetic declination is more than this value, runway headings need to be changed.

So, Main runway of Tampa airport will be named as 19R/01L meaning runway pointing slightly away from North towards East between North and NNE.

3) EARTH'S MAGNETIC FIELD-

Earth's magnetic field is there because of an ocean containing iron which is electrically conducting medium which generates the magnetic field around the earth. With the rotation of this solid core and the liquid core around it, the magnetic north also moves away continuously and in west direction.

The working of Earth's magnetic field is similar to a dynamo effect due to Electro-Magnetic induction.

The Earth's Magnetic North pole is moving in the regions of higher latitudes ( Say moving north)

4) IS IT RELATED TO END OF THE WORLD IN 2012??

NO, NO, NO, NO,NOOOOO!

Its rubbish to say that closure of an airport due to movement of Magnetic North pole is adding to the so called End of The world Phenomena in 2012.

Near all prominent airports change their runway numbers after some period. In July 2009, London's Stansted airport in UK changed the RNY number from 05/23 to 04/22

Shifting of Earth;s magnetic poles is a very common and natural phenomena which has happened and is happening since the formation of the magnetic field.

Also, it takes a very long time for a geomagnetic reversal when the magnetic north pole is near Geographic South pole and magnetic south near Geographic north pole.

So nothing will happen in 2012 FOR SURE.