I wanted to write this text yesterday only but was unable to do as I was partially ill
On Sunday, August 15, the sun emitted many solar flares along with notable Coronal mass ejection. AS being seen from the X ray flux, two B5 class solar flares were erupted near 0600UT,12UT then a B4 flare was emitted near 1500UT and the bigger!! a class C4 near 1800UT...
Many Coronal Mass ejections hurled from the sun during the entire day as a result of very weak magnetic fields around the sun and repulsive tendency. Three significant Coronal Mass Ejections were seen by the Solar Dynamic Observatory's coronagraphs.
None of this clouds are actually heading towards the earth but the CME from sunspot 1093 and 1099 could give a glancing blow to the earth as some plasma is heading towards the earth
It was the result of the end of complex eruptions which had taken place on 1093 and 1099. The CLass C4 flare is associated with it.
The geomagnetic field will have unsettled levels in the coming days due to many events.
The current increase in the activity is due a coronalhole high speed stream. Then the expected events on 17th and 18th (Unsettled KP levels and Auroras in high latitude areas) will be due to the Class C4 flare which had happened on August 14. Similarly some addition to this unsettled levels will be due to a part of the Coronal Mass Ejection associated with the Class C4 flare from 1093 and 1099 on August 15
So in all,
It will be bountiful week for high latitude areas as they will likely see good auroras everyday till August 19 (If no new CME takes place)
Solar Forecast
As I was thinking earlier regarding the formation of some new sunspots on the Solar Dynamic Observatory facing side of the sun, some new sunspots are mostly generating.
Two new sunspots are expected to form!
The Magnetogram of SOHO is showing some weak(repulsive natured) aka opposite polarity fields magnetic fields around 1093 and 1099 and also around the newly developing sunspots..
But the sunspot 1093 and 1099 will now be facing away from the the SDO side. Also the emerging sunspots have some opp polarity fields around them so some low class flares like B class is possible and less chance of C flare as its widespread unsettlement of fields and not around sunspots
NOAA forecasters are giving a 35% chance of ACTIVE GEOMAGNETIC STORM in next 24-48hrs in high latitude. So lets wait and see how the situation unfurls!
IMAGES-
THE X RAY FLUX PLOT FROM NOAA
AND SINCE I WAS UNABLE TO SEE THIS SITUATION YESTERDAY I HAVE USED SOME IMAGES OF THE CORONAGRAPH FROM SPACEWEATHER.COM
