Coronal Mass Ejection confirmed from Sunspot 1261. Heading towards earth

SEVERE SOLARWX

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

In continuation to the earlier post of M class Flare from AR 1261......

The Sunspot AR1261 produced a M1 class flare at 0619UT,2nd Aug 2011

The datas from STEREO A and B confirmed that the flare also released a strong Coronal Mass Ejection

See Stereo A view here

Stereo B view here

The CME consists of charged particles ( especially charged ions,electrons,protons - part of the strongly heated plasma) that mostly takes 2-3 days to reach the earth.

Based on this,

THE CME CAN BE EXPECTED TO HIT EARTH'S MAGNETIC FIELD ON 4TH AUGUST LATE PERIOD TO 5TH AUGUST AND IF IT RETAINS ITS INTENSITY THEN ACTIVE GEOMAGNETIC STORMING SHALL TAKE PLACE.

POLAR AURORAS ALSO SHALL HAPPEN IF EARTH'S MAGNETIC FIELD TRIPS SOUTH DURING THE CONTACT OF INTENSIFIED SOLAR WIND ( CME ) AND MAGNETIC FIELD.

Sunspot 1263 update-

The Sunspot 1263 now posses symmetrical magnetic field which shall now provide threat for strong flares. This sunspot shall start producing big flares very soon.

Sunspot 1261 has now slightly less threat for Strong Flares.

Forecast-

An Isolated M class flare likely from AR 1261. Less chance for X class flare

Chance of initial C class flares then for some M class flares

Another M class Solar Flare is in progress from Sunspot 1261

SEVERE SOLARWX

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

As predicted looking at the Magnetic Field lines of Sunspot AR 1261, The sunspot is now undergoing a 2nd M class flare ( The Flare intensity not known as it is in progress)

The Solar Flare also has sent wave of ionization causing a Radio Blackout R1 now on the Earth

Discussion-

AS PER THE PAPER of SEVERE SOLARWX see here,

Sunspot AR 1261 has simple symmetrical magnetic field ( AS indicated by the MDI Magnetogram and magnetic fields- picture above). As was discussed in the paper sunspots having symmetrical magnetic fields produce stronger flares ( M class + ) as the arrangement of magnetic fields ( symmetrical) enables the maximum intensity explosion ( flare) as against the complex magnetic fields ( Where possibly the net effect of magnetic field is reduced due to cancellation by the other unsymmetrical magnetic field lines in the same sunspot region.

The neighboring sunspot AR 1260 ( Upper Right of 1261 on sun's NW limb) has more magnetic flux but has complex fields)

Another sunspot AR 1263 is maturing and might be the next one to release a strong flare after few days ( Its located Upper Left of AR 1261 or in the NE limb of Sun)

Forecast-

AS PER PAPER OF SEVERE SOLARWX

Sunspot 1261 IS THE MAIN CONCERN for the next few days for producing Isolated M mid to high class flares and a possible X class flare during its presence. Any such flare shall be earth directed as the Sun's region having AR 1261 is on the Geo-effective ( Earth Facing side)

Sunspot AR 1260 has less threat for strong flares

Sunspot AR 1263 shall join the race for strong flares after some days

MONTHLY SUNSPOT NUMBER AS OF JULY 2011

The monthly sunspot avg no of July 2011 as JUMPED up to 43.9 ( 52.1 was the expected value as per IPS Solar Data) from 37.0 of June 2011….

This was predicted by SEVERE SOLARWX for a monthly sunspot no. July 2011 to be between 40-45

The Sunspot no on 31st July is 130.

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