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Saturday, August 6, 2011

Geomagnetic Storm decreasing but might increase again due to one shockwave of CME


The Massive G3 Geomagnetic Storm which had set in during late night hours of GMT of 5th August 2011 is still active but intensity has lowered down to G2. The Kp index which peaked at Kp=8 has now gone down to Kp=6 which is a Moderate Storm level.

As posted below image is prepared by the Space Weather Lab. The yellow circle is earth and you can see the massive zone ( Red,Pink White plume) was that CME which caused a G3 Geomagnetic Storm
As can be seen further, a second shockwave is trailing behind ( its a part of the first CME). As of 0600hrs GMT on 6th Aug 2011 the second shockwave shall hit the IMF again and likely increase in the intensity of storming
that is Kp can jump again to 7 and level 3 G3 Geomagnetic Storm can develop as the effects of first CME hit aren't subsidizing that quickly. IF so happens, then the earth again shall get Glancing glow from the Solar Wind and more auroras can be seen

At the same time, GPS users,Power Grid Operators shall remain cautious as there is likely malfunctioning during the Storming.

GPS users *** particularly must remain alert during local evening hours ( Dusk period)

STAY TUNED FOR MORE UPDATE




Akshay Deoras
Severe Earth & Space Weather Forecaster,Astrophysics article writer.

Web-
www.akshaydeoras.blogspot.com
www.metdweather.blogspot.com
www.scribd.com/akshaydeoras

MAJOR GEOMAGNETIC STORMING IN PROGRESS!


SEVERE SOLARWX
AKSHAY DEORAS
SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTER

AS WAS BEING EXPECTED

A MAJOR G3 GEOMAGNETIC STORM IS IN PROGRESS! THE SHOCKWAVE FROM CME HIT THE EARTH AT AROUND 1800HRS GMT ON 5TH AUG 2011

THE Bt index WAS AS HIGH AS 40nT AND THE KP SURGED TO 8 ( K=8) ON GOES SATELLITE AND AT BOULDER,CO KP=7 AND SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTRE CATEGORIZED AS G3 GEOMAGNETIC STORM

THE STORMING IS STILL IN PROGRESS AND S1 SOLAR RADIATION STORM

**** PEOPLE LIVING AROUND AND ABOVE 50 DEG LATITUDE SHALL GET TO SEE AURORAS***

PEOPLE LIVING IN NORTHERN NETHERLANDS,GERMANY,NEW HAMPSHIRE ( USA) ARE SEEING AURORAS!

AS PER SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION ( NOAA), THE POSSIBLE HAZARDS FROM G3 GEOMAGNETIC STORM

EFFECTS KP FREQUENCY

G3

Strong

Power systems: voltage corrections may be required, false alarms triggered on some protection devices.

Spacecraft operations: surface charging may occur on satellite components, drag may increase on low-Earth-orbit satellites, and corrections may be needed for orientation problems.

Other systems: intermittent satellite navigation and low-frequency radio navigation problems may occur, HF radio may be intermittent, and aurora has been seen as low as Illinois and Oregon (typically 50° geomagnetic lat.)**.

Kp = 7

200 per cycle
(130 days per cycle)

GEOMAGNETIC SUDDEN IMPULSE-ARRIVAL OF CME ON THE EARTH

SEVERE SOLARWX
AKSHAY DEORAS
SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTER
NAGPUR,0045HRS 6TH AUG 11 IST

FLASH SNIPPET-
THE ACE DATA HAS CONFIRMED THAT A SHOCKWAVE OF CORONAL MASS EJECTION FROM THE SUN HAS HIT THE EARTHS MAGNETIC FIELD EXACTLY AT THE TIME PREDICTED BY SEVERE SOLAR WX USING THE SPACE WEATHER LAB PRODUCTS. AS SEEN FROM THE ATTACHED IMAGE,THE IMF (INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD RECEIVED A SHOCKWAVE MEASURING AROUND 40 Bt. ALSO THE IMF HAS TRIPPED SOUTH (SOUTHWARD Bz) WHICH SHALL ALLOW THE SOLAR WIND TO POUR IN EARTHS MAGNETOSPHERE AS THE SUN AND EARTHS MAGNETIC FIELDS ARE CANCELLED AT A POINT DURING SOUTHWARD Bz...

THE SOLAR WIND ALSO PICKED UP TO AROUND 565 KM/SEC AND AROUND 15 PROTONS/CM square.

THUS THE POSSIBILITY OF INCREASED SOLAR PROTON FLUX HAS ARISEN ( S1RADIATION STORM ALREADY IN PROGRESS SINCE EARLY MORNING OF 4TH AUG)
*** S2 LEVEL RADIATION POSSIBLE**

HIGH LATITUDE OBSERVERS SHALL WATCHOUT FOR AURORAS AND OVERALL PEOPLE DEALING WITH COMMUNICATION,POWER GRIDS,PIPELINES SHALL WATCH OUT!


www.akshaydeoras.blogspot.com
www.metdweather.blogspot.com



STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES AT

http://www.facebook.com/pages/Severe-Solar-Weather-forecast/112556765473804