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Wednesday, August 18, 2010

S1 SOLAR RADIATION STORM EXPECTED ON THE EARTH

IN THE ABOVE PLOT OF THE PROTON FLUX THE 10MeV FLUX OR RED LINE HAS CROSSED THE 10pfu line. IT MEANS THE ONSET OF A SOLAR RADIATION STORM

NOAA HAS CONFIRMED A TYPE TWO RADIO EMISSION FROM THE SUN AT 0551UT AND ESTIMATED VELOCITY OF 545KM/SEC
THEN AT 0900UT, THE SDO PLOT HAS INDICATED THAT THE 10MeV PROTON FLUX will likely rise about 10 pfu

NOAA has issued an alert where it has mentioned a ONSET CONDITION for the S1 PREDICTED
SOLAR RADIATION STORM

Massive Cloud of Coronal Mass Ejection ejected from Sun on Wednesday. Might be heading towards the earth





IMAGES-
THE FIRST IMAGE IS OF THE LASCO C2. IT IS A CORONAGRAPH OF THE SUN TAKEN AT 0636. THE BRIGHT CORONAL MASS EJECTION CAN BE EASILY SEEN ON THE RIGHT PART OF THE SUN

2ND IMAGE IS A 6MIN EARLY IMAGE THAN THE FIRST ONE AND A LONG RANGE CORONAGRAPH
THE BRIGHT EXPLOSION IS THE CME!!

THIRD IMAGE -
THE 0658UT IMAGE OF SUN IN THE FE XVIII 94 ANGSTROM REGION OF SUN
YOU CAN SEE THE EXPLOSION ON THE UPPER RIGHT PART OF THE SUN

FOURTH IMAGE IS OF THE MAGNETOGRAM FROM SOHO
IT SHOWS OPP. POLES IN THE SUNSPOT 1098


Massive Cornonal Mass Ejection also designated as CME is now exploding from the sun associated with a CLass C4 flare!

At about 0600UT, The SDO X ray flux recorded a Class C4 solar flare ejected from the sun and then immediately datas from the coronagraph of SOHO confirmed that Sun is hurling MASSIVE CME which triggered after the solar flare! The SOHO MDI Magnetogram has been indicating that the opposite poles are present in the Sunspot 1098. So the magnetic fields around 1098 became repulsive(weak) and ejected a solar flare.
Soon after the flare, Coronal Mass Ejection was ejected.
I don't find any coming Solar Radiation storm as after the ejection at this time, the proton flux plot remained quiet unlike the previous time when a C4 caused a solar radiation storm on 14th August 2010. But some later plots can possibly indicate a minor storm
I have less information on the present side of earth as viewed from the sun but strongly believe that this CME is ejected towards the earth and mostly some part of it can likely give a glancing blew to earth's magnetic field by 21st August 2010

meanwhile, the previous estimates didn't materialize and the disturbance in the geomagnetic field of the earth remained less.


STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES AT

http://www.facebook.com/pages/Severe-Solar-Weather-forecast/112556765473804