SEVERE SOLARWX
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster
In a very disappointing event, for the first time in last two years of my forecasting, a scenarion like this has happened. The CME of 9th and 10th March has ditched all of the space weather forecasters including Space Weather Prediction Center for two times straight in a row!
The saga is now over and NO GEOMAGNETIC STORMING is expected as the anticipated CME of 10th March 2012 made an appearance in the form of G2 Geomagnetic Storm of 12th March 2012 which began with a Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse at 0843hrs GMT. I would like to clarity the entire scenario in the below FAQ
Q- Is any Geomagnetic Storming expected today (13th March) or tomorrow (14th March) from CME?
A. No, the anticipated CME(s) passed the Earth with the later one (10th March) producing a G2 Geomagnetic Storming on 12th March
Q. What happened with the 9th March CME?
A. The 9th March CME produced a very little deviation in the Magnetometers on 11th March. It produced a very minor (Around 10nT+) deviation at the ACE satellite and 22.1nT at Boulder at the peak
More can be found here -
http://akshaydeoras.blogspot.in/2012/03/mysterious-cme-hits-earth.html
Q. If the CME of 9th March striked on 11th March then why didn't Space Weather Prediction Center mentioned about it?
A. Its very surprising. Perhaps the deviations produced in the magnetic field or IMF were too minor for an alert. They should have done that!
Q. Did the CME of 10th March 2012 arrive BEFORE TIME?
A. Looking at the overall disturbance in the Magnetic field datas from ACE satellite, it appears that the CME arrived earlier than expected. It appeared 12hrs earlier than expected!
More can be found here-
http://akshaydeoras.blogspot.in/2012/03/cme-keeps-waiting-major-geomagnetic.html
Q. Why wasn't it discovered earlier that the G2 Geomagnetic Storm of 12th March was due to 10th March CME?
A. I blame the Space Weather Prediction Center for it. If they had updated about the 9th March CME impact earlier then the chance of revival or turning geo-effective of the 11th Mar CME hit would have been zero. We thought that the 11th March had a CME hit which I mentioned but the effect was negligible. So the G2 storm of 12th March was thought to be an after-effect of 9th Mar CME
This whole led to think that 10th March CME was on the way for 13th Mar collision!
Q. What does this chaos or sage reflect?
A. It reflects the present state of understanding and forecast ability. It challenges our understandings about the travelling of CME,their velocity and overall impact with the Earth
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster
In a very disappointing event, for the first time in last two years of my forecasting, a scenarion like this has happened. The CME of 9th and 10th March has ditched all of the space weather forecasters including Space Weather Prediction Center for two times straight in a row!
The saga is now over and NO GEOMAGNETIC STORMING is expected as the anticipated CME of 10th March 2012 made an appearance in the form of G2 Geomagnetic Storm of 12th March 2012 which began with a Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse at 0843hrs GMT. I would like to clarity the entire scenario in the below FAQ
Q- Is any Geomagnetic Storming expected today (13th March) or tomorrow (14th March) from CME?
A. No, the anticipated CME(s) passed the Earth with the later one (10th March) producing a G2 Geomagnetic Storming on 12th March
Q. What happened with the 9th March CME?
A. The 9th March CME produced a very little deviation in the Magnetometers on 11th March. It produced a very minor (Around 10nT+) deviation at the ACE satellite and 22.1nT at Boulder at the peak
More can be found here -
http://akshaydeoras.blogspot.in/2012/03/mysterious-cme-hits-earth.html
Q. If the CME of 9th March striked on 11th March then why didn't Space Weather Prediction Center mentioned about it?
A. Its very surprising. Perhaps the deviations produced in the magnetic field or IMF were too minor for an alert. They should have done that!
Q. Did the CME of 10th March 2012 arrive BEFORE TIME?
A. Looking at the overall disturbance in the Magnetic field datas from ACE satellite, it appears that the CME arrived earlier than expected. It appeared 12hrs earlier than expected!
More can be found here-
http://akshaydeoras.blogspot.in/2012/03/cme-keeps-waiting-major-geomagnetic.html
Q. Why wasn't it discovered earlier that the G2 Geomagnetic Storm of 12th March was due to 10th March CME?
A. I blame the Space Weather Prediction Center for it. If they had updated about the 9th March CME impact earlier then the chance of revival or turning geo-effective of the 11th Mar CME hit would have been zero. We thought that the 11th March had a CME hit which I mentioned but the effect was negligible. So the G2 storm of 12th March was thought to be an after-effect of 9th Mar CME
This whole led to think that 10th March CME was on the way for 13th Mar collision!
Q. What does this chaos or sage reflect?
A. It reflects the present state of understanding and forecast ability. It challenges our understandings about the travelling of CME,their velocity and overall impact with the Earth
