The Sunspot 1093 had emitted a Class M1 flare on August 7 at 1825UT. Nearly 48hrs have passed and some coronal mass ejection is likely to hit the earth causing a spectacular Auroral display in the polar regions.Though I don't expect a Solar Storm or NOAA ACTIVE storm as the ejection was away from the sun-earth line. As per the datas from NOAA Space Weather Prediction center,the electron 2MeV integral flux exceeded 1000 pfu. NOAA has issued a continued alert for it!
The Kp index is 4 which means it is unsettled. This also indicates the likely hood of approaching Solar storm which is likely going to affect the magnetic field and cause Auroras in polar regions.
Yesterday's maximum was 3562pfu.
There is a chance of a M class flare eruption in next 2-3 days from 1093 and a isolated chance of Geophysical activity in next 48hrs about 10%
MY PROBABILITY-
M FLARE- 10%
X FLARE- 1%
THE SUNSPOT 1093 WILL ROTATE TOWARDS EARTH IN NEXT 24-48HRS
IF ANYTHING MAKES THE MAGNETIC FIELD UNSTABLE THEN EARTH WILL DIRECTLY RECEIVE A SOLAR STORM.
AURORAS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGH LATITUDES AS THE KP INDEX IS 4 AND IS UNSETTLED.
