Sunspot 1271 has cross symmetric magnetic field!

SEVERE SOLARWX

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

Present sunspots on the Earthside of the sun- 

AR 1274,1275 ,1271,1272 

The earth side of the sun has four brief sunspots. The region of concern is the sunspot 1271. NOAA forecasters expect a 20% chance of M class flares from  AR 1271 

 

The Space Weather Lab is expecting tremendous 58% flare chance of X and M class

However as per the theory put forth by Severe SolarWX

Sunspot 1271 is having cross symmetric magnetic field and hence it doesn't seen to be capable of producing a high end M class or X class flares. Initial C class followed by isolated M low class flare shall be there but after a brief period of time ( 2 days later or so)

STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES!

Akshay Deoras
Severe Earth & Space Weather Forecaster,Astrophysics article writer.

Web-
www.akshaydeoras.blogspot.com
www.metdweather.blogspot.com

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Sick Test Problem: Math

Posted by Alutsyah Luthfian

Sorry I'm trashing here with math. Actually, it was a problem given during a university admission test. A Math problem, actually university semester II Calculus. Why I should say sick? It wasn't attested in Big-Three Indonesian university; Bandung Tech Institute, dubbed to be the best technological university in Indonesia didn't give the problem at its admission test (Bandung Tech always give some mind tricking problems, in which an excelled student can do it fast by finding the patterns), neither did my Gadjah Mada nor University of Indonesia.

This problem came from a university in Semarang: Diponegoro University.

The problem is like this:





Seems easy at a glance. But it is actually harder. We should integrate it from the inner part dx then we do the outer part dy.

1.The first thing we do is integrate the inner part,

which is equal to:

After that, we integrate the outer part,

becoming

This second part is the hardest part

2. Integrating the e^y2 is not as easy as I thought. After dealing with u=y² form, the equation goes ill by the form 2×√u which is adding up to infinity if we try to integrate it by multiple integral method (and I will talk about this later). It is known that the function f(y)= e^y2 is an even function, a function in which f(-y)=f(y). But the problem is, the function's value goes ∞ when x approaches ∞; so the simplest thing we can do when integrating e^y2 is integrate it by mean of series. A function f(x) could be approached approximately with an infinite series:

Nah, you can replace a with any real number. Usually, scholars use the number 0 for simplicity, and putting 0 as a will make the series called MacLaurin Series.
Now we replace the y in f(y)= e^y2 into x and the function becomes f(x)=e^x2. The infinite series for f(x) when a =0 becomes:

If you prefer to put another real number as a, then this equation could be used.

Getting that kind of equation, we could easily integrate the f(x)=e^x2 by integrating its series expansion.

But in this article i prefer not to do the exponential integration that way.

Why not? Because the xⁿ in the series expansion grows significantly smaller than the exponential function. I'm intending to give a more precise result using error function. I will do the error function with the touch of series expansion also; but if i do with the error function, the result will precise up to 10^-5 order.

ERROR FUNCTION

So what another silly thing you would suck on my head?
OK readers, take a break please. Yeah now I want to give you an important function, it is error function. Built on the basis of Gaussian integral, the error function was firstly used only at statistical data processing. Now this function is used also in advanced physics, thus this function is given as early as one or two year after Indonesians entering science faculties in university. I will only give you some basics of error function relating to the sick math problem above.

Go back to the exponent integral, we could further analyze the integral like below. Note that the e^y2 is replaced by e^x2.

Then,

This is it. The erfi(z) function is defined by:

And so, its MacLaurin series is

Erfi(z) or erfi(x) series when x=∞ is calculated by integrating the e^x2 dx endlessly.

The picture below give an image on how to do it.

so, the erfi(x) becomes:

That are two kinds of series expansion for erfi function. We should use the erfi MacLaurin series when calculating figures less than 1 or more than -1. The erfi series expansion at x=∞ is used when calculating figures more than 1 or less than -1. If the figure is 1, you can use either the infinite or MacLaurin series.

Then, we do the erfi(ln 2) - erfi(1) by means of series expansion. We do them by mean of erfi MacLaurin series, this yields -0.72270466, just differ 2 x 10^-8 with the result yielded by a math software.

Next, the final result is:

The term 0.02677468 can be rounded to be 0.0267747 which differs 8 x 10^-9 with computer's computation result.

X 6.9 Solar flare from AR 1263.. The biggest of So 24

SEVERE SOLARWX
AKSHAY DEORAS
SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTER

SEVERE SOLARWX CONDEMNS THE LATE POST ON SUCH A HISTORICAL EVENT.

THE SUNSPOT AR 1263 HAS HURLED THE BIGGEST SOLAR FLARE OF SOLAR CYCLE 24 - X 6.9 SOLAR FLARE AT 0805Z,AUGUST 9 2011.

SUNSPOT 1263 AS WAS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS FEW POSTS HAD SYMMETRICAL MAGNETIC FIELD AS AGAINST THAT OF AR 1261 WHICH DIDNT PRODUCE ANY X CLASS FLARE.
SEVRE SOLARWX HAS GATHERED SUFFICIENT PROOF NOW TO PRESENT A CONFIRMED REPORT ON THE SUNSPOTS WHICH PRODUCE MAXIMUM SOLAR FLARES

THE FLARE ALSO SENT TREMENDOUS X RAYS TOWARDS EARTH CAUSING AN R3 RADIO BLACKOUT THAT DISRUPTED SIGNALS IN HF AND VLF ZONES!

Level Consequences X Ray-Flux Frequency

R3

Strong

HF Radio: Wide area blackout of HF radio communication, loss of radio contact for about an hour on sunlit side of Earth. Navigation: Low-frequency navigation signals degraded for about an hour.

X1 (10-4)

175 per cycle (140 days per cycle)

Courtesy- NOAA/SWPC

THE FLARE HAS ALSO PRODUCED STRONG CORONAL MASS EJECTION BUT AS THE SUNSPOT WAS AWAY FROM GEO-EFFECTIVE SIDE OF THE EARTH, THE CME IS NOT EARTH DIRECTED.

DATAS FROM THE SPACE WEATHER LAB ALSO CONFIRM THIS FACT.

HOWEVER THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SOME SQUARED CME SHALL BE HEADING TOWARDS THE EARTH BUT SEVERE SOLARWX DOESN'T ENCOURAGE THIS NEWS NOW

.IF SUCH CME HAD BEEN EARTH DIRECTED THEN THERE WOULD HAVE BEEN ATLEAST A G4 GEOMAGENTIC STORM.. THE SUNSPOT MISSED IT BY JUST FEW DAYS!!!!

ALL THE THREE X CLASS FLARES IN THE SOLAR CYCLE - 24 HAS PROVED THAT THE THEORY PUT FORTH BY SEVERE SOLARWX IN CLASSIFYING THOSE SUNSPOTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG FLARES ( HIGH END M TO X CLASS) IS CORRECT

SO, SEVERE SOLARWX SHALL PUT FORTH A MODIFIED PAPER IN CONTINUATION TO THIS PAPER

Editors Note-

It has become necessary to inform the people about The Sun and its effects after CME,Flares.

In association to this, The Hitavada - Leading Newspaper of Central India offered an opportunity to me for publishing an article on the basics about the Sun.

The article as published in The Hitavada is posted above in the image form

- Akshay Deoras

Akshay Deoras
www.akshaydeoras.blogspot.com
www.metdweather.blogspot.com

Geomagnetic Storm decreasing but might increase again due to one shockwave of CME

The Massive G3 Geomagnetic Storm which had set in during late night hours of GMT of 5th August 2011 is still active but intensity has lowered down to G2. The Kp index which peaked at Kp=8 has now gone down to Kp=6 which is a Moderate Storm level.

As posted below image is prepared by the Space Weather Lab. The yellow circle is earth and you can see the massive zone ( Red,Pink White plume) was that CME which caused a G3 Geomagnetic Storm

As can be seen further, a second shockwave is trailing behind ( its a part of the first CME). As of 0600hrs GMT on 6th Aug 2011 the second shockwave shall hit the IMF again and likely increase in the intensity of storming

that is Kp can jump again to 7 and level 3 G3 Geomagnetic Storm can develop as the effects of first CME hit aren't subsidizing that quickly. IF so happens, then the earth again shall get Glancing glow from the Solar Wind and more auroras can be seen

At the same time, GPS users,Power Grid Operators shall remain cautious as there is likely malfunctioning during the Storming.

GPS users *** particularly must remain alert during local evening hours ( Dusk period)

STAY TUNED FOR MORE UPDATE

Akshay Deoras
Severe Earth & Space Weather Forecaster,Astrophysics article writer.

Web-
www.akshaydeoras.blogspot.com
www.metdweather.blogspot.com

www.scribd.com/akshaydeoras

MAJOR GEOMAGNETIC STORMING IN PROGRESS!

SEVERE SOLARWX
AKSHAY DEORAS
SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTER

AS WAS BEING EXPECTED

A MAJOR G3 GEOMAGNETIC STORM IS IN PROGRESS! THE SHOCKWAVE FROM CME HIT THE EARTH AT AROUND 1800HRS GMT ON 5TH AUG 2011

THE Bt index WAS AS HIGH AS 40nT AND THE KP SURGED TO 8 ( K=8) ON GOES SATELLITE AND AT BOULDER,CO KP=7 AND SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTRE CATEGORIZED AS G3 GEOMAGNETIC STORM

THE STORMING IS STILL IN PROGRESS AND S1 SOLAR RADIATION STORM

**** PEOPLE LIVING AROUND AND ABOVE 50 DEG LATITUDE SHALL GET TO SEE AURORAS***

PEOPLE LIVING IN NORTHERN NETHERLANDS,GERMANY,NEW HAMPSHIRE ( USA) ARE SEEING AURORAS!

AS PER SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION ( NOAA), THE POSSIBLE HAZARDS FROM G3 GEOMAGNETIC STORM

EFFECTS KP FREQUENCY

G3

Strong

Power systems: voltage corrections may be required, false alarms triggered on some protection devices. Spacecraft operations: surface charging may occur on satellite components, drag may increase on low-Earth-orbit satellites, and corrections may be needed for orientation problems. Other systems: intermittent satellite navigation and low-frequency radio navigation problems may occur, HF radio may be intermittent, and aurora has been seen as low as Illinois and Oregon (typically 50° geomagnetic lat.)**.

Kp = 7

200 per cycle (130 days per cycle)

GEOMAGNETIC SUDDEN IMPULSE-ARRIVAL OF CME ON THE EARTH

SEVERE SOLARWX
AKSHAY DEORAS
SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTER
NAGPUR,0045HRS 6TH AUG 11 IST

FLASH SNIPPET-
THE ACE DATA HAS CONFIRMED THAT A SHOCKWAVE OF CORONAL MASS EJECTION FROM THE SUN HAS HIT THE EARTHS MAGNETIC FIELD EXACTLY AT THE TIME PREDICTED BY SEVERE SOLAR WX USING THE SPACE WEATHER LAB PRODUCTS. AS SEEN FROM THE ATTACHED IMAGE,THE IMF (INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD RECEIVED A SHOCKWAVE MEASURING AROUND 40 Bt. ALSO THE IMF HAS TRIPPED SOUTH (SOUTHWARD Bz) WHICH SHALL ALLOW THE SOLAR WIND TO POUR IN EARTHS MAGNETOSPHERE AS THE SUN AND EARTHS MAGNETIC FIELDS ARE CANCELLED AT A POINT DURING SOUTHWARD Bz...

THE SOLAR WIND ALSO PICKED UP TO AROUND 565 KM/SEC AND AROUND 15 PROTONS/CM square.

THUS THE POSSIBILITY OF INCREASED SOLAR PROTON FLUX HAS ARISEN ( S1RADIATION STORM ALREADY IN PROGRESS SINCE EARLY MORNING OF 4TH AUG)
*** S2 LEVEL RADIATION POSSIBLE**

HIGH LATITUDE OBSERVERS SHALL WATCHOUT FOR AURORAS AND OVERALL PEOPLE DEALING WITH COMMUNICATION,POWER GRIDS,PIPELINES SHALL WATCH OUT!

www.akshaydeoras.blogspot.com
www.metdweather.blogspot.com

DAY OF GEOMAGNETIC STORM

SEVERE SOLARWX

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

The 2 CME which are enroute to Earth have merged into a single and powerful wave of disturbance that is likely to hit the Earth's Magnetic Field around 1800hrs GMT today i.e 5th Aug 2011. The CME shall be travelling at around 750km/sec during the impact.

NOAA forecasters expect this CME to cause a G2-G3 Geomagnetic Storming and S2 Radiation storm. THE SOLAR RADIATION STORM IS STILL IN PROGRESS SINCE 04TH AUGUST MORNING GMT WITH S1 INTENSITY AND SHALL BE ENHANCED WHEN ABUNDANT CHARGED PARTICLES REACH.

ACTIVE GEOMAGNETIC STORM,RADIATION STORM SHALL PERSISTS PERIODICALLY TILL 7TH AUG 2011

FRESH! SUNSPOT AR 1261 RELEASE M 9.3 SOLAR FLARE.THIRD MAJOR CORONAL MASS EJECTION RELEASED

SEVERE SOLARWX

AKSHAY DEORAS

SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTER

MARKING ITS RECORD,SUNSPOT 1261 HAS RELEASED ANOTHER HIGH END M CLASS FLARE MEASURED M 9.3 AT ABOUT 0357 UT

THIS ALSO PRODUCED A R2 LEVEL RADIO BLACKOUT!

JUST IN-

DATAS FROM STEREO A INDICATE A STRONG CORONAL MASS EJECTION DUE TO THIS FLARE WHICH HAS ALREADY STARTED ITS JOURNEY TOWARDS THE EARTH

THIS IS HISTORIC,

THREE DAYS,

FOUR CME

3 MAJOR EN-ROUTE THE EARTH!

**** SOLAR RADIATION STORM LIKELY*****

THE POWERFUL CME ALSO EMITED TONS OF CHARGED PROTONS TOWARDS THE EARTH WHICH ARE NOW LANDING ON THE EARTH AND LIKELY CAUSE A S1 RADIATION STORM!

***

STAY TUNED FOR ALERTS

MULTIPLE CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS HEADING TOWARDS EARTH

ABOVE- CME # 4 DUE TO 9.3M SOLAR FLARE ON 0357 UT,4TH AUG 2011

ABOVE- 3RD AUGUST 2011 CME DUE TO M6 FLARE

ABOVE- PARTIAL CME DUE TO M1 FLARE ON 3RD AUG

2ND AUGUST CME

SEVERE SOLARWX

AKSHAY DEORAS

SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTER

The Solar Activity has BOOSTED suddenly due to Sunspot 1261 which has hurled 4 Bright Coronal Mass Ejection all of which are heading towards the Earth.

Schedule of CME-

The first CME ( Ejected on 2nd August 2011) shall land on 5th Aug Early morning

The Second partial CME coupled with todays strong one ( M6 flare) shall arrive by 6th August noon period as per today's calculation

The third Major CME shall arrive during 7th August 2011

A prolonged period of ACTIVE Geomagnetic Storming is likely!

M 6 Solar Flare from Sunspot 1261 ! Caused a R2 Blackout

SEVERE SOLARWX

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

At 1348UT, Sunspot AR1261 has hurled another M class Flare ( M6) with tremendous Coronal Mass Ejection coupled by a wave of ionization shortly after the flare which caused a R2 Radio Blackout.

The datas from STEREO are arriving and indicating CME release associated with the M6 flare.

Above image- The X ray image showing the explosion... AND THE CORONAL MASS EJECTION

STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES!

NEXT POST- HOW MANY CME ARE ON TRACK?

Another M1 class flare from Sunspot AR 1261

SEVERE SOLARWX

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

Sunspot AR 1261 has gone for another M1 class flare today at around 0340 UT on 3rd August. The GOES X ray flux measured this flare as M1 and the datas from STEREO are indicating that this Flare has also released a partial Coronal Mass Ejection see here

Meanwhile the CME released yesterday is possibly travelling at around 900km/sec and shall land down during early morning hours ( GMT) on 5th August 2011 ( Which is the 1st Aniversary of SEVERE SOLARWX which was set up on 5th Aug 2010

This CME of 2nd Aug coupled by todays partial CME shall likely cause ACTIVE Geomagnetic storming on 5th August 2011 and likely trigger Auroras if IMF supports!

Coronal Mass Ejection confirmed from Sunspot 1261. Heading towards earth

SEVERE SOLARWX

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

In continuation to the earlier post of M class Flare from AR 1261......

The Sunspot AR1261 produced a M1 class flare at 0619UT,2nd Aug 2011

The datas from STEREO A and B confirmed that the flare also released a strong Coronal Mass Ejection

See Stereo A view here

Stereo B view here

The CME consists of charged particles ( especially charged ions,electrons,protons - part of the strongly heated plasma) that mostly takes 2-3 days to reach the earth.

Based on this,

THE CME CAN BE EXPECTED TO HIT EARTH'S MAGNETIC FIELD ON 4TH AUGUST LATE PERIOD TO 5TH AUGUST AND IF IT RETAINS ITS INTENSITY THEN ACTIVE GEOMAGNETIC STORMING SHALL TAKE PLACE.

POLAR AURORAS ALSO SHALL HAPPEN IF EARTH'S MAGNETIC FIELD TRIPS SOUTH DURING THE CONTACT OF INTENSIFIED SOLAR WIND ( CME ) AND MAGNETIC FIELD.

Sunspot 1263 update-

The Sunspot 1263 now posses symmetrical magnetic field which shall now provide threat for strong flares. This sunspot shall start producing big flares very soon.

Sunspot 1261 has now slightly less threat for Strong Flares.

Forecast-

An Isolated M class flare likely from AR 1261. Less chance for X class flare

Chance of initial C class flares then for some M class flares

Another M class Solar Flare is in progress from Sunspot 1261

SEVERE SOLARWX

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

As predicted looking at the Magnetic Field lines of Sunspot AR 1261, The sunspot is now undergoing a 2nd M class flare ( The Flare intensity not known as it is in progress)

The Solar Flare also has sent wave of ionization causing a Radio Blackout R1 now on the Earth

Discussion-

AS PER THE PAPER of SEVERE SOLARWX see here,

Sunspot AR 1261 has simple symmetrical magnetic field ( AS indicated by the MDI Magnetogram and magnetic fields- picture above). As was discussed in the paper sunspots having symmetrical magnetic fields produce stronger flares ( M class + ) as the arrangement of magnetic fields ( symmetrical) enables the maximum intensity explosion ( flare) as against the complex magnetic fields ( Where possibly the net effect of magnetic field is reduced due to cancellation by the other unsymmetrical magnetic field lines in the same sunspot region.

The neighboring sunspot AR 1260 ( Upper Right of 1261 on sun's NW limb) has more magnetic flux but has complex fields)

Another sunspot AR 1263 is maturing and might be the next one to release a strong flare after few days ( Its located Upper Left of AR 1261 or in the NE limb of Sun)

Forecast-

AS PER PAPER OF SEVERE SOLARWX

Sunspot 1261 IS THE MAIN CONCERN for the next few days for producing Isolated M mid to high class flares and a possible X class flare during its presence. Any such flare shall be earth directed as the Sun's region having AR 1261 is on the Geo-effective ( Earth Facing side)

Sunspot AR 1260 has less threat for strong flares

Sunspot AR 1263 shall join the race for strong flares after some days

MONTHLY SUNSPOT NUMBER AS OF JULY 2011

The monthly sunspot avg no of July 2011 as JUMPED up to 43.9 ( 52.1 was the expected value as per IPS Solar Data) from 37.0 of June 2011….

This was predicted by SEVERE SOLARWX for a monthly sunspot no. July 2011 to be between 40-45

The Sunspot no on 31st July is 130.

STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES!