Coronal Mass ejection heading towards earth

SEVERE SOLARWX
AKSHAY DEORAS
SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTER

AN expected band of coronal mass ejection from march 3 event is speedily heading towards the earth as seen from STEREO images.
The CME was observed in the images today morning with light disturbance patch but is now a strong band quickly progressing!

CME is expected to hit the earth late hours ( 6th March) to early morning hours (7th March)

If the magnetic field of sun trips south or southward Bz, then solar wind shall pour in as at the point of contact of sun and earth magnetic field during southward Bz, solar winds enter. If the magnetic field of sun trips to north, then less auroras are expected with weak geomagnetic storm
I expect unsettled conditions from tomorrow noon to evening period with active conditions (storm) by evening hours and some time on 8th March
Attached image shows approaching cme from sun side.

Sunspot 1164
Today, sunspot 1164 which is capable of producing X class flare has emitted top C class flares.
Despite delta magnetic field, sunspot has been calm with no major flare till yet. It might be due to less active coronal loops visible leading to shortness of open
tube which is the gateway for a flare and cme

HIGH LATITUDE OBSERVERS SHALL REMAIN ALERT FOR AURORAS

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Akshay Deoras
www.akshaydeoras.blogspot.com
www.metdweather.blogspot.com

Sunspot 1164 has DELTA magnetic classification

The Growing sunspot 1164 has a Delta Magnetic classification. It means that the magnetic fields are so twisted that umbra ( Darker region of one pole) is separated by a distance less than 2 degree by penumbra of opposite polarity. 

Such sunspots are capable of producing X class Flares! 

But the spot has not produced any GIANT flare yet! This is the puzzling thing as when do sunspots hurl Solar Flares and CME is still being studied!

Sunspot 1166 is growing in size and is already a marked feature on sun. It has a Gamma Magnetic classification meaning that polarity is very complex which prevents classifying that region into a simple bipolar sunspot. 

These sunspots are capable of producing C class flares. 

However,the sunspot shall develop soon. 

CORONAL MASS EJECTION HEADING TOWARDS THE EARTH

Report from Space Weather Prediction Center

March 4, 2011: Two Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) from the east limb earlier today signal the imminent arrival of two active regions to the disk. Though neither of these CMEs is expected to cause any elevated Geomagnetic Storm activity, they may presage additional activity that could be geo-effective over the next two weeks. SWPC Forecasters will be watching for more.

CME is expected to arrive on 6th March

--
Akshay Deoras

Severe Earth & Space Weather Forecaster,Astrophysics article writer.

Web-

www.akshaydeoras.blogspot.com

www.metdweather.blogspot.com

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G1 Geomagnetic Storm due to Coronal High speed stream. Sunspot 1164 capable of producing M class Flare

SEVERE SOLARWX

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

A high speed stream from giant Coronal hole in the Northern Hemisphere of the Sun has just striked the earth causing Unsettled Kp value of 4. 

Space Weather Prediction team is expecting KP 5 meaning Isolate Active storming in next few hours. 

HIGH LATITUDE OBSERVERS SHALL WATCH FOR AURORA. 

The area of attraction right now on the sun is the sunspot 1164. 

Sunspot 1164 is having a complex beta-gamma magnetic field. The area is a bipolar region but so complex that one can't draw a single continuous line joining the opposite poles. 

such Beta Gamma Magnetic fields are capable of producing M class flares and if this sunspot grows more it can produce a low X class flare. 

As the sunspot is rotating towards the earth, it shortly shall reach in the geo-effective position and produce SEVERE SOLARWX.

Stay Tune for UPDATES!

--
Akshay Deoras

Severe Earth & Space Weather Forecaster,Astrophysics article writer.

Web-

www.akshaydeoras.blogspot.com

www.metdweather.blogspot.com

Via- Email Blog

Space Shuttle Discovery all set for FINAL Launch

A COUNTDOWN TIMER IS AVAILABLE ON THE BLOG REGARDING THE LAUNCH OF STS 133

LIVE STREAM FROM KENNEDY SPACE CENTER,FL VIA NASA TV SHALL BE SET UP ON THE FRONT PAGE OF BLOG AT THE TOP ON 0530HRS GMT,24TH FEB 2011

On the 6th attempt of launch! Space Shuttle Discovery is all set for a launch on its final mission from Kennedy Space Center,FL on mission STS 133

Launch is targeted on 24th Feb 2011 at 0450PM EST (21:50:13) UTC ( 24th Feb) , 03:20:13 hrs IST ( 25th Feb)

As mentioned earlier, the launch has been scrubbed away 5 times due to technical faults due to OMS pod leak and bad weather, Hydrogen leak at the ground umbilical carrier plate as the last reason for the delay.

Below is a tabular display of scrubbed dates of launches and the associated reason

Launch attempts

All times Eastern Time, first 5 are while daylight saving time was in effect (EDT), attempt 6 is during outside of daylight saving (EST)

Attempt	Planned	Result	Turnaround	Reason	Decision point	Weather go %	Notes
1	1 Nov 2010, 4:40:00 pm	scrubbed[46]	---	technical[47]	29 Oct 2010, 10:00 am(T-11 hour hold)	80%	OMS Pod leak[47]
2	2 Nov 2010, 4:18:00 pm	scrubbed[48]	0 days, 23 hours, 38 minutes	technical[48]	(T-11 hour hold)	70%	OMS Pod leak[48]
3	3 Nov 2010, 3:52:00 pm	scrubbed[49]	0 days, 23 hours, 34 minutes	technical[49]	2 Nov 2010, 5:40 pm(T-11 built-in hold)	70%	Electrical fault in backup SSME controller.
4	4 Nov 2010, 3:29:54 pm	scrubbed[50]	0 days, 23 hours, 38 minutes	weather[51][52]	4 Nov 2010, 6:25 am	20%	Decision made at pre-tanking weather briefing to reset clock to T-11 hold and delay ~24 hours due to rainy conditions.[51][53]
5	5 Nov 2010, 3:04:01 pm	scrubbed	0 days, 23 hours, 34 minutes	technical	5 Nov 2010, 12:00 pm(T-6 hold)	60%	Hydrogen leak detected at ground umbilical carrier plate (GUCP)[54]
6	24 Feb 2011, 4:50:24 pm		111 days, 1 hours, 46 minutes			80%

METD WEATHER-

The weather stands excellent for launch with light winds temp in upper 25C and lower 17C and good visibility with partly cloudy conditions

"GO" FOR LAUNCH FROM METD WEATHER

80% ACCEPTABLE CONDITIONS FROM NASA

Lets hope that no technical fault snags the launch this time

Geomagnetic Storm G1 onsets. M6.6 Solar Flare causes Radio Blackout

HYPERACTIVE DAY!

SEVERE SOLARWX

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

THE KP INDEX HAS REACHED 5 and indicates ONSET of Geomagnetic Storm G1

Kp reached 5 at around 0900UTC.Further Storming is expected and G3 Geomagnetic storm probability can't be ruled out.

M6.6 Solar Flare-

At around 1011UTC, Sunspot 1158 released another Solar Flare of X ray flux M6.6 category. Shortly after this release, Moderate Level RADIO BLACKOUT i.e R2 was noticed on the sunlit side of the earth.

The arriving datas from STEREO shall indicate whether Coronal Mass Ejection has been hurled out or now. Being it very strong, I expect a CME and might be directed towards the earth

CME hits the earth !

SEVERE SOLARWX

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

The Anticipated Coronal Mass ejections from 15th Feb and 13th Feb events have arrived which was detected by series of shocks recorded by the ACE spacecraft

The earth is having a magnetic field. Sun's magnetic field known as Interplanetary magnetic field(IMF). These two fields are in contact at Magnetopause. Earth's magnetic field is directed towards North and if the IMF points South then due to opposite in nature, IMF partly cancels earth's magnetic field at the point of contact. This phenomena is known as "southward B_z"

This results in pouring in of Solar Wind which triggers Auroras.

The Bz index has reached to 30nT meaning passing of shockwave ( 5-6UTC)

Kp index is now unsettled with level 4 and its expected to reach to 5 indicating G1 storm

High latitude observers must remain alert for Auroras.

GEOMAGNETIC STORM APPROACHING EARTH as Coronal Mass ejection nears!

1st image ( from top) is of 0347UTC,16th Feb. At left most side you can see the expanding CME.

2nd Image is of 15:47UTC showing tremendous progress of CME in 12hrs time lapse.

3rd image shows respective positions of Saturn,Earth,CME

Last image( 4th from top) shows ahead view showing CME approaching towards Venus and earth

SEVERE SOALRWX

Akshay Deoras

SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTER

The Coronal Mass ejection from sunspot 1158 which happened with the X2.2 solar flare on 15th Feb is finally heading towards the earth as seen from STEREO BEHIND HI2 and Ahead spacecraft.

Within the period of 12hrs from today early to noon ( GMT), the expanding cloud forward layers have covered around 40-45% distance between Earth and the left most side of window of Stereo image (as of 1547hrs UTC)

The cloud is also heading towards Saturn,Venus

CME shall hit Earth's magnetic field on 17th Feb by afternoon hours ( GMT) resulting into minor storming in late period as magnetic field of earth destabilizes and pouring down some solar wind creating Auroras in High latitude regions

As mentioned earlier, its a series of CME so more action is likely to be reserved on 18th Feb as minor storming is expected.

Thus high latitude observers shall remain alert for Auroras on 17th and 18th Feb

Sunspot 1158-

The Spot is not gone yet!

Sunspot 1158 which shall be remembered for years for producing an X2.2 Flare is slowly rotating away from the earth facing side of the sun. According to my experience, this sunspot is a Delta sunspot with entangled magnetic fields and closeness of Umbra of one pole and penumbra of opposite polarity making appearance of Delta cat due to less than 2 degree separation.

The sunspot has produced around 9 C class flares from X2.2 event and is still looking good for Minor M class flare till 18th Feb 2011

X2.2 SOLAR FLARE FROM 1158 SUNSPOT... SERIES OF GEOMAGNETIC STORM LIKELY TO HIT EARTH

FROM TOP-
FIRST IMAGE- THE NOAA X RAY FLUX SHOWING CLASSIC X CLASS FLARE

SECOND IMAGE IS THE MDI MAGNETOGRAM SHOWING COMPLEX POLARITY AROUND 1158.

THE 14MIN TIME LAPSE IMAGES FROM STEREO BEHIND SHOWING CME ON RIGHT SIDE. CHECK THE POSITION OF STEREO B SPACECRAFT WITH RESPECT TO EARTH-SUN FROM IMAGE BELOW

LAST IMAGE- THE SUNSPOT 1158 WHICH IS MORE THAN 100,000 KM WIDE!

Space Weather Message Code: SUMX01
Serial Number: 68
Issue Time: 2011 Feb 15 0246 UTC

SUMMARY: X-ray Event exceeded X1
Begin Time: 2011 Feb 15 0144 UTC
Maximum Time: 2011 Feb 15 0156 UTC
End Time: 2011 Feb 15 0206 UTC
X-ray Class: X2.2
Location: S20W15
NOAA Scale: R3 - Strong

SEVERE SOLARWX

Akshay Deoras

Severe Weather Forecaster

BIGGEST SOLAR FLARE OF THE CYCLE OUT FROM THE SUN

The sunspot 1158 has increasingly grown and released X2.2 FLARE-

The strongest of this cycle EVEN OVERTAKING M6.6 FLARE OF 13TH FEB !!!

**At around 0156UTC, The sunspot 1158 released an X2.2 FLARE with Type II radio emission. This Giant solar flare has been captured on images of Solar Dynamic Observatory....

A giant Radio blackout ( expected to BE R3) is also expected from this X2.2 Flare which shall be effective shortly

Thus solar flare erruption also was connected with Coronal Mass Ejection(CME) as seen from the datas of STEREO spacecraft AND IS DIRECTED TOWARDS EARTH

THE CORONAL MASS EJECTION FROM THIS X2.2 FLARE IS DIRECTED ON A LARGE PATH INCLUDING VENUS AND EARTH.

THE CORONAL MASS EJECTION FROM 13TH FEB EVENT COUPLED WITH CORONAL HOLE STREAM SHALL BE REACHING THE EARTH TODAY OR BY 16TH CAUSING AURORAS AND POSSIBLY A MINOR GEOMAGNETIC STORM.

HOWEVER THE CME FROM 15TH FEB EVENT SHALL REACH EARTH AND CAUSE GEOMAGNETIC STORM ON 17TH FEB-18TH FEB OR SO..

STAY TUNED FOR ALERT AND AURORAS AT HIGHER LATITUDE REGION

. On 13th Feb, a M6 Solar Flare was produced from the same sunspot which hurled tremendous Radio waves which caused a R3 Radio blackout which was experienced by many people on different frequencies..

SPACE WEATHER FORECAST-

15TH FEB- ISOLATED ACTIVE PERIOD

LIKELY AURORAS AT HIGH LATITUDE REGIONS

16TH FEB- ISOLATED MINOR STORM PERIOD AS CME OF 13TH FEB ARRIVES COUPLED WITH CORONAL HOLE STREAM

17TH FEB- SAME EFFECT WITH AURORAS FOR SURE.

LATE PERIODS OF 17-18TH FEB,CME EJECTED DURING X2.2 FLARE SHALL HIT THE EARTH AND CAUSING ANOTHER PERIOD OF ACTIVE GEOMAGNETIC STORM ON EARTH

KP 6!!! GEOMAGNETIC STORM ONSETS

SEVERE SOLARWX

AKSHAY DEORAS

Severe Weather Forecaster

Kp indicators showed a classic value of 6 ( G2 Geomagnetic storm) on late night period of 4th Feb 2011.

From a settled value of 2, graph jumped to 6 when the solar wind stream hit the earth at around 2100hrs UTC. Value of 5 ( G1) was recorded at around 11:59PM and then at 4 at around 3AM (UTC) this morning.

KP values greater than 4 indicate Geomagnetic storm.

HIGH LATITUDE OBSERVERS MUST REMAIN ALERT FOR SPARKLING AURORAS AT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

Solar Wind arrived late than expected between 1-4th Feb.

Space Weather Predictions need more accuracy for sure!

Very large Coronal Hole on the Sun! Likely for a Geomagnetic storm

FIRST IMAGE OF LATE NIGHT PERIOD ON 29TH JAN 2011 SHOWING THE FIRST APPEARANCE OF CORONAL HOLE.

THE SECOND IMAGE IS OF 30TH JAN 2011 SHOWING CORONAL HOLE HAS STARTED ROTATING TOWARDS GEOEFFECTIVE POSITION

SEVERE SOLARWX

Akshay Deoras

Severe Space Weather Forecaster

A very large coronal hole has appeared on the surface of the sun and is rotating towards the Geoeffective position. Coronal Hole are the dark cooler areas on the corona of the sun where there are open magnetic fields ( Unipolar magnetic field) which permit the outflow of solar wind or the high speed coronal hole stream which brings a geomagnetic storm on the earth as the magnetic field of the earth becomes unsettled when the charged particles from the coronal stream strike it.

The coronal hole in in the Northern Hemisphere of the sun and is expected to become Geoeffective

( position from where earth is affected ) very soon as a result of which a geomagnetic storm is likely with Auroras at high latitude regions on the earth.

Unsettled levels in the Kp index ( Indicator of storming conditions) shall remain unsettled on 1st Feb 2011 and Auroras shall be visible in high latitude regions between 1st Feb to 4th Feb or so

A M1 class Solar Flare was erupted from the sun on Jan 28 2011 with giant Coronal Mass Ejection

but the will not affect the earth

Massive Earthquake strikes South Western Pakistan. Tremors felt in India

THE INTENSITY REPORTS FROM DIFFERENT AREAS IN ASIA

THE GRAPH SHOWING DECREASE IN INTENSITY WITH RESPECT TO DISTANCE

THE USGC SHAKE MAP SHOWING MAX.EFFECT NEAR THE EPICENTER

A 7.2 magnitude earthquake on richter scale was recorded in the South Western Periphery of Pakistan close to Afghanisthan border area with the epicenter at isolated region at 28.8382N,63.9473E ( of the order of following distances below)

DISTANCE FROM EPICENTER-

45 km (30 miles) W of Dalbandin, Pakistan

260 km (160 miles) W of Kalat, Pakistan
310 km (190 miles) ESE of Zahedan, Iran
1035 km (640 miles) WSW of ISLAMABAD, Pakistan

1290km from New Delhi

1077km from Ahmedabad

1242km from Dharamshala,Himachal Pradesh

TIMINGS OF EARTHQUAKE

Earthquake was reported at 20:23:26UTC ( 18th Jan 2011) i.e 01:23:26AM LT(19th Jan 2011) at epicenter

THE DEPTH OF THE EARTHQUAKE WAS AROUND 84KM.

( DEPTH OF EARTHQUAKE IS THE AREA WHERE EARTHQUAKE BEGINS TO RUPTURE.

THIS HEIGHT IS RECORDED BELOW SEA LEVEL OR BELOW THE SEISMOLOGY OBSERVATORY)

Tremors of the earthquake were felt at multiple places stretching from Riyadh city,Dubai city,Tehran,Samarkand( Uzbekistan),Kabul,Gwalior( India) and as south as Bangalore( India).

The USGC received responses from -

Dharmashala - Where the Intensity was reported V ( FIVE) ( Moderate Shaking and Light damage expected)

In Pilani, INTENSITY V ( 5) was reported which means Moderate Shaking and minor damage.

Delhi, Gwalior,Noida - Intensity IV( 4) where minor shaking with no damage was recorded

Chandigarh,Jaipur,Jodhpur,Jaisalmer,Mumbai and Bangalore- Intensity- III ( Weak Shaking of the ground and no damage)

The Earthquake's maximum effect ( Intensity ) was reported at

Naushahro Firoz ( In Sindh region),Pakistan and Rudbar in Afghanisthan ( Where INTENSITY WAS VI,6)

In rest areas of the list, Intensty of III,II and I was reported

DAMAGE REPORTS

1} Several Houses were collapsed and damaged in Quetta

** No death reports till yet

2] One person has died due to wall collapse in Pakistan

More damage reports shall be coming as Earthquake must have created extensive damage in Pakistan.In quetta, A woman died of Heart Attack after the earthquake

3] No casualties reported in India

MERCALLI INTENSITY SCALE ( GIVEN BELOW)

COMPARE THE VALUES REPORTED AT PLACES WITH THE DEFINED DAMAGE GIVEN BELOW

I. Instrumental	Not felt by many people unless in favourable conditions.
II. Weak	Felt only by a few people at best, especially on the upper floors of buildings. Delicately suspended objects may swing.
III. Slight	Felt quite noticeably by people indoors, especially on the upper floors of buildings. Many do not recognize it as an earthquake. Standing motor cars may rock slightly. Vibration similar to the passing of a truck. Duration estimated.
IV. Moderate	Felt indoors by many people, outdoors by few people during the day. At night, some awakened. Dishes, windows, doors disturbed; walls make cracking sound. Sensation like heavy truck striking building. Standing motor cars rock noticeably. Dishes and windows rattle alarmingly.
V. Rather Strong	Felt outside by most, may not be felt by some outside in non-favourable conditions. Dishes and windows may break and large bells will ring. Vibrations like large train passing close to house.
VI. Strong	Felt by all; many frightened and run outdoors, walk unsteadily. Windows, dishes, glassware broken; books fall off shelves; some heavy furniture moved or overturned; a few instances of fallen plaster. Damage slight.
VII. Very Strong	Difficult to stand; furniture broken; damage negligible in building of good design and construction; slight to moderate in well-built ordinary structures; considerable damage in poorly built or badly designed structures; some chimneys broken. Noticed by people driving motor cars.
VIII. Destructive	Damage slight in specially designed structures; considerable in ordinary substantial buildings with partial collapse. Damage great in poorly built structures. Fall of chimneys, factory stacks, columns, monuments, walls Heavy furniture moved.
IX. Violent	General panic; damage considerable in specially designed structures, well designed frame structures thrown out of plumb. Damage great in substantial buildings, with partial collapse. Buildings shifted off foundations.
X. Intense	Some well built wooden structures destroyed; most masonry and frame structures destroyed with foundation. Rails bent.
XI. Extreme	Few, if any masonry structures remain standing. Bridges destroyed. Rails bent greatly.
XII. Cataclysmic	Total destruction - Everything is destroyed. Lines of sight and level distorted. Objects thrown into the air. The ground moves in waves or ripples. Large amounts of rock move position. Landscape altered, or leveled by several meters. In some cases, even the routes of rivers are changed.