A STRONG M CLASS FLARE IS IN PROGRESS AND MAY REACH TO X CLASS
Akshay Deoras
www.akshaydeoras.blogspot.com
www.metdweather.blogspot.com
Saturday, September 24, 2011
Another strong M class flare in progress
A STRONG M CLASS FLARE IS IN PROGRESS AND MAY REACH TO X CLASS
Hyperactive Sunspot 1302!
Severe SolarWX
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster
The hyperactive sunspot 1302 which is near the North East limb of the sun has produced 2 X ray flares now and 3-4 M class flare..
The sunspot produced an X 1.4 flare on 22nd and then some M class flares...
However today at around 0940 UTC the sunspot produced X 1.9 Solar Flare.. Associated with it another M class flare was produced and has onset a R2 Blackout...
Also the proton event from 22nd sept has led to S1 Solar Radiation Storm...
Sunspot 1302 HAS TREMENDOUS POTENTIAL FOR RELEASING EARTH DIRECTED X FLARES...
STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES!!
Akshay Deoras
www.akshaydeoras.blogspot.com
www.metdweather.blogspot.com
Sunday, September 18, 2011
Magnitude 6.9 Earthquake strikes Sikkim,India
I am very unfortunate to announce that a Moderate Earthquake of 6.9 on richter scale ( USGC) has happened with the Epicenter at Sikkim.
*** FOR THE NEXT 24HRS, THERE IS A STRONG THREAT FOR SOME AFTERSHOCKS IN THE REGION. EACH AFTERSHOCK RESEMBLES AN EARTHQUAKE****
**** PEOPLE IN TALL BUILDINGS AND OTHER AREAS MUST WATCH OUT FOR THIS ***
*** DOS AND DONTS DURING OR AFTER EARTHQUAKE***
03322145486
As per USGC, the earthquake struck at 27.72N,88.06E which is around 68 km (42 miles) NW of Gangtok, Sikkim, India
119 km (73 miles) NNW of Shiliguri, West Bengal, India
272 km (169 miles) E of KATHMANDU, Nepal
572 km (355 miles) N of Kolkata (Calcutta), West Bengal, India
*** FOR THE NEXT 24HRS, THERE IS A STRONG THREAT FOR SOME AFTERSHOCKS IN THE REGION. EACH AFTERSHOCK RESEMBLES AN EARTHQUAKE****
**** PEOPLE IN TALL BUILDINGS AND OTHER AREAS MUST WATCH OUT FOR THIS ***
*** DOS AND DONTS DURING OR AFTER EARTHQUAKE***
03322145486
 |
| Img Courtesy- AP |
119 km (73 miles) NNW of Shiliguri, West Bengal, India
272 km (169 miles) E of KATHMANDU, Nepal
572 km (355 miles) N of Kolkata (Calcutta), West Bengal, India
The epicenter was about 19.7km deep which definitely can be considered as fortunate because earthquakes at shallow areas are very likely to create more damage.
The Earthquake happened at around 0610PM IST and datas from USGC confirming that V to VI th intensity shaking was reported around the epicenter that is in the ENTIRE SIKKIM AREA,NORTH WEST BENGAL AND EASTERN NEPAL AND NORTHERN BANGLADESH
*** AS PER USGC SCALE, THESE INTENSITY EARTHQUAKES ARE PRONE TO CAUSE LIGHT DAMAGE BUT IN INDIA, SUCH A STRONG EARTHQUAKE OFTEN CAUSES LARGE DAMAGE ESPECIALLY TO LIFE AND PROPERTY
AFTER THE MAIN EARTHQUAKE, 2 AFTERSHOCKS WERE REPORTED
1ST AFTERSHOCK-
06:41:57PM IST
MAGNITUDE- 4.8
** THIS AFTERSHOCK WAS JUST 25KM WNW OF GANGTOK***
2ND AFTERSHOCK
07:24:18PM IST
MAGNITUDE- 4.6
*** THIS EARTHQUAKE WAS 34KM W OF GANGTOK***
---------------------------- ------------------------------------ ------------------------------- ------------------------------------ -----------------------
DAMAGES-
COURTESY- CNN IBN
The DGP of Sikkim said that many buildings were damaged. He also said that roads were blocked and people were stranded on roads. He said that the Sikkim Chief Minister Pawan Chamling has called for an emergency meeting.
Arvind Kumar, Principal Resident Commissioner of Sikkim said that there was excessive damage in the northern parts of Sikkim. He also said that the rescue operations had started in the area.
There were also reports of landslides following the earthquake in areas around Sikkim and also Darjeeling.
The Prime Minister also spoke to the Sikkim Chief Minister and offered all help. The Prime Minister also directed the Cabinet Secretary to call for an emergency meeting.
There were reports of damages from Bihar. Two buildings collapsed in Katihar in Bihar. The NTPC power plant in Kahalgaon in Bihar has also been shut down because of the earthquake following which North Bihar was under power crisis.
Arvind Kumar, Principal Resident Commissioner of Sikkim said that there was excessive damage in the northern parts of Sikkim. He also said that the rescue operations had started in the area.
There were also reports of landslides following the earthquake in areas around Sikkim and also Darjeeling.
The Prime Minister also spoke to the Sikkim Chief Minister and offered all help. The Prime Minister also directed the Cabinet Secretary to call for an emergency meeting.
There were reports of damages from Bihar. Two buildings collapsed in Katihar in Bihar. The NTPC power plant in Kahalgaon in Bihar has also been shut down because of the earthquake following which North Bihar was under power crisis.
METD WEATHER- There has been a massive power cut right now in Sikkim due to the earthquake.
Areas in Northern West Bengal also are in darkness right now.
** TELEPHONE LINES HAVE BEEN DAMAGED IN SIKKIM**
Fatalities are being reported from Nepal and minor from Sikkim especially from Khatmandu.
The tremors also were reported on light scale in Delhi,Uttar Pradesh,Bihal ( DAMAGE BEING REPORTED AROUND NALANDA),Jharkhand,North East India
SCIENTIFIC DETAILS
THE EARTHQUAKE HAPPENED AT A VERY OLD AND LESS ACTIVE FAULT LINE.
THE INDIAN PLATE IN THIS REGION THRUSTS BENEATH THE EURASIAN PLATE. OUT OF THE SOME THRUST FAULTS,
 |
| COURTESY- ASC INDIA. THE HAZARD MAP FOR SIKKIM |
MBT - MAIN BOUNDARY THRUST
MCT- MAIN CENTRAL THRUST
HFF- HIMALAYAN FRONTAL THRUST
 |
| THE ABOVE IMAGE SHOWS THE MAIN EARTHQUAKE I.E GIANT SQUARE FOLLOWED BY 2 AFTERSHOCKS ALL PRODUCED NEAR THE THRUST FAULTS. |
 |
| THE USGC INTENSITY MAP SHOWING YELLOW/GREEN REGION OF INT V TO IV SHOWING MODERATE SHAKING |
 |
| SHAKING INTENSITY USGS. THIS MAP WILL BE UPDATED RAPIDLY AS MORE UPDATES FLY IN |
DUE TO THIS NATURE OF THRUST FAULTS, GOVT OF INDIA HAD PUT SIKKIM IN THE ZONE IV SEISMIC HAZARD.
PAST EARTHQUAKES
COURTESY- ASC,INDIA
18 earthquakes of magnitude 5 or greater over the past 35 years within 100 km of the epicenter of the September 18 event. The largest of these was a magnitude 6.1 earthquake in November of 1980, which occurred 75 km to the southeast. ( USGC)
Largest Instrumented Earthquake in Sikkim
19 November 1980 - Near Gangtok (Sikkim-West Bengal Border region), 6.1 Ms (PAS)
19:00:46.9 UTC, 27.39N, 88.75E, 17 kms depth
Eight people were injured in Gangtok and there was also minor damage reported from the city. the quake was felt in eastern and north-eastern India, Bangladesh, Bhutan and Nepal.
Significant Earthquakes in Sikkim
The following list briefly outlines known earthquakes in this region. General locations are provided for historical events for which "generalized" epicentral co-ordinates are available.Some events which were significant for other reasons are also included. This list will be updated whenever newer information is available. Please note that Magnitude and Intensity are NOT THE SAME. All events are within the state or union territory covered on this page unless stated otherwise.
Acronyms Used:D=Depth, OT=Origin Time, Mw=Moment Magnitude, Ms=Surface Wave magnitude, Mb=Body Wave Magnitude, ML=Local Magnitude, M?=Magnitude Type unknown
19 November 1980 - Near Gangtok (Sikkim-West Bengal Border region), 6.1 Ms (PAS)
19:00:46.9 UTC, 27.39N, 88.75E, 17 kms depth
Eight people were injured in Gangtok and there was also minor damage reported from the city. the quake was felt in eastern and north-eastern India, Bangladesh, Bhutan and Nepal.
Significant Earthquakes in Sikkim
The following list briefly outlines known earthquakes in this region. General locations are provided for historical events for which "generalized" epicentral co-ordinates are available.Some events which were significant for other reasons are also included. This list will be updated whenever newer information is available. Please note that Magnitude and Intensity are NOT THE SAME. All events are within the state or union territory covered on this page unless stated otherwise.
Acronyms Used:D=Depth, OT=Origin Time, Mw=Moment Magnitude, Ms=Surface Wave magnitude, Mb=Body Wave Magnitude, ML=Local Magnitude, M?=Magnitude Type unknown
15 January 1934 - Indo-Nepal Border region, Mw 8.0
14:21:25 IST / 08:43:25 UTC, 26.50N, 86.50E
Nearly 10,500 people were killed in Bihar and Nepal. Damage was also reported from many towns in Sikkim.
12 January 1965 - West of Gangtok (Indo-Nepal Border region), 6.1 (TS)
13:32:24 UTC, 27.60N, 88.00E
19 November 1980 - Near Gangtok (Sikkim-West Bengal Border region), 6.1 Ms (PAS)
19:00:46.9 UTC, 27.39N, 88.75E, 17 kms depth
Eight people were injured in Gangtok and there was also minor damage reported from the city. The quake was felt in eastern and north-eastern India, Bangladesh, Bhutan and Nepal.
21 August 1988 - Udaipur Gahri, Nepal (Indo-Nepal Border region), Mw 6.8 (NEIC)
23:09:09 UTC / 04:39:09 IST, 26.755N 86.616
Nearly 900 people were killed in the border districts of Nepal and Bihar, India. Damage was also reported from Kathmandu and Sikkim. Felt over much of northern and eastern India and much of Nepal. Felt as far as New Delhi.
14 February 2006 - Mana, North Sikkim, Mw 5.3
27.377 N, 88.362 E, D=020.1 kms, OT=00:55:23 UTCA moderate earthquake struck the Sikkim Himalayas on 14 February 2006 at 06:25 AM local time resulting in two deaths and minor damage to property in the state of Sikkim, India. It had a magnitude of Mw=5.3. This is the strongest earthquake in this immediate region since a Mw=6.3 earthquake on 19 November 1980.
18 May 2007 - Nambu, North Sikkim, Mb 4.6
27.302 N, 88.159 E, D=021.1 kms, OT=12:40:02 UTC
A light earthquake struck the Sikkim Himalayas on 18 May 2007 at 18:10 PM local time resulting in some panic in the state of Sikkim, India. It had a magnitude of Mb=4.6.
20 May 2007 - Singyang, North Sikkim, Mb 5.0 27.303 N, 88.191 E, D=021.1 kms, OT=14:18:18 UTC
A moderate earthquake struck the Sikkim Himalayas on 20 May 2007 at 19:48 PM local time resulting in some panic and minor damage in the state of Sikkim, India. It had a magnitude ofMb=5.0.
14:21:25 IST / 08:43:25 UTC, 26.50N, 86.50E
Nearly 10,500 people were killed in Bihar and Nepal. Damage was also reported from many towns in Sikkim.
12 January 1965 - West of Gangtok (Indo-Nepal Border region), 6.1 (TS)
13:32:24 UTC, 27.60N, 88.00E
19 November 1980 - Near Gangtok (Sikkim-West Bengal Border region), 6.1 Ms (PAS)
19:00:46.9 UTC, 27.39N, 88.75E, 17 kms depth
Eight people were injured in Gangtok and there was also minor damage reported from the city. The quake was felt in eastern and north-eastern India, Bangladesh, Bhutan and Nepal.
21 August 1988 - Udaipur Gahri, Nepal (Indo-Nepal Border region), Mw 6.8 (NEIC)
23:09:09 UTC / 04:39:09 IST, 26.755N 86.616
Nearly 900 people were killed in the border districts of Nepal and Bihar, India. Damage was also reported from Kathmandu and Sikkim. Felt over much of northern and eastern India and much of Nepal. Felt as far as New Delhi.
14 February 2006 - Mana, North Sikkim, Mw 5.3
27.377 N, 88.362 E, D=020.1 kms, OT=00:55:23 UTCA moderate earthquake struck the Sikkim Himalayas on 14 February 2006 at 06:25 AM local time resulting in two deaths and minor damage to property in the state of Sikkim, India. It had a magnitude of Mw=5.3. This is the strongest earthquake in this immediate region since a Mw=6.3 earthquake on 19 November 1980.
18 May 2007 - Nambu, North Sikkim, Mb 4.6
27.302 N, 88.159 E, D=021.1 kms, OT=12:40:02 UTC
A light earthquake struck the Sikkim Himalayas on 18 May 2007 at 18:10 PM local time resulting in some panic in the state of Sikkim, India. It had a magnitude of Mb=4.6.
20 May 2007 - Singyang, North Sikkim, Mb 5.0 27.303 N, 88.191 E, D=021.1 kms, OT=14:18:18 UTC
A moderate earthquake struck the Sikkim Himalayas on 20 May 2007 at 19:48 PM local time resulting in some panic and minor damage in the state of Sikkim, India. It had a magnitude ofMb=5.0.
Saturday, September 10, 2011
Magnetic Field remains unsettled due to CME impacts
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster
Soon after the earths magnetic field was hit by CME,Kp index reached 7 and there was a G2 Geomagnetic Storming and Auroras were seen as far has Michigan,North Dakota in USA. As seen from datas from the ACE spacecraft,Earths magnetic field continues to face the CME impacts
The IMF has tripped back to North which will reduce intensity of Auroras as during the Northward Bz,solar wind is deflected by earths magnetic field.
It does appear that storming conditions shall persis till end of 11th Sept with periods of Active conditions. But a coronal hole high speed stream is enroute to earth which may cause minor storming on 12th Sept. The sunspot 1283 which is the most active sunspot of Solar Cycle 24 has now rotated away from earth facing side of sun
Stay tuned for updates
Akshay Deoras
www.akshaydeoras.blogspot.com
www.metdweather.blogspot.com
Via- Mobile Blogging
Friday, September 9, 2011
GEOMAGNETIC STORM G2 ONSETS
A GEOMAGNETIC STORM OF INTENSITY LEVEL 2 IS NOW IN PROGRESS WITH KP=6 AND IMF TRIPPED SOUTHWARDS
HIGH LATITUDE OBSERVERS SHALL WATCH FOR AURORAS TONIGHT
DETAILS LATER
HIGH LATITUDE OBSERVERS SHALL WATCH FOR AURORAS TONIGHT
DETAILS LATER
Thursday, September 8, 2011
Partial CME heading towards Earth
SEVERE SOLARWX
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster
AR 1283 - THE MOST ACTIVE SUNSPOT ON THE EARTH FACING SIDE OF THE SUN
This was the second X class ( X1.8) SOLAR FLARE FROM SUNSPOT 1283 ON 2238 UT,7TH SEPT 2011.
The event also caused a X ray Blackout of R3 intensity shortly as the X rays caused blackout on the sunlit side of the earth.
This Solar Flare also released Coronal Mass Ejection which was recorded by STEREO A and can be seen here and also here
Magnetic Fields-
The Sunspot AR 1283 is having symmetric magnetic field lines and has produced two X class flares already
This is according to the paper published by SEVERE SOLARWX where sunspots having symmetric magnetic field lines are capable of producing high end M class to X class flares.
THUS SEVERE SOLARWX HAS 4 STRAIGHT EVIDENCES FOR THE PAPER
CME FORECAST
THE M 5.3 SOLAR FLARE OF 6TH SEPT 2011 HURLED CME TOWARDS THE EARTH WHEN WAS EXACTLY INFRONT OF THE SUNSPOT. THE X 2.1 SOLAR FLARE ALSO HURLED SOME CME BEING SQUARELY DIRECTED AND YESTERDAYS 1.8 JOINING THE GANG.
IT DOES APPEAR THAT EARTH IS VERY
ABOVE-
THE THREE PEAKS ( ONE M CLASS AND TWO X CLASS FLARES) FROM AR 1283 MAKING IT THE MOST ACTIVE SUNSPOT
LIKELY TO THE PARTIAL CME ON 10TH SEPT LATE NIGHT HOURS ( GMT)
THE EFFECT SHALL BE MINIMAL WITH LIKELYHOOD OF G1 GEOMAGNETIC STORM AND IF THE IMF TRIPS SOUTHWARD DURING IMPACT, AURORAS SHALL DISPLAY AT HIGHER LATITUDES
STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES
FOLLOW SEVERE SOLAR WX @ SSW FB
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster
AR 1283 - THE MOST ACTIVE SUNSPOT ON THE EARTH FACING SIDE OF THE SUN
This was the second X class ( X1.8) SOLAR FLARE FROM SUNSPOT 1283 ON 2238 UT,7TH SEPT 2011.
The event also caused a X ray Blackout of R3 intensity shortly as the X rays caused blackout on the sunlit side of the earth.
This Solar Flare also released Coronal Mass Ejection which was recorded by STEREO A and can be seen here and also hereMagnetic Fields-
The Sunspot AR 1283 is having symmetric magnetic field lines and has produced two X class flares already
This is according to the paper published by SEVERE SOLARWX where sunspots having symmetric magnetic field lines are capable of producing high end M class to X class flares.THUS SEVERE SOLARWX HAS 4 STRAIGHT EVIDENCES FOR THE PAPER
CME FORECAST
THE M 5.3 SOLAR FLARE OF 6TH SEPT 2011 HURLED CME TOWARDS THE EARTH WHEN WAS EXACTLY INFRONT OF THE SUNSPOT. THE X 2.1 SOLAR FLARE ALSO HURLED SOME CME BEING SQUARELY DIRECTED AND YESTERDAYS 1.8 JOINING THE GANG.
IT DOES APPEAR THAT EARTH IS VERY
ABOVE-
THE THREE PEAKS ( ONE M CLASS AND TWO X CLASS FLARES) FROM AR 1283 MAKING IT THE MOST ACTIVE SUNSPOT
LIKELY TO THE PARTIAL CME ON 10TH SEPT LATE NIGHT HOURS ( GMT)
THE EFFECT SHALL BE MINIMAL WITH LIKELYHOOD OF G1 GEOMAGNETIC STORM AND IF THE IMF TRIPS SOUTHWARD DURING IMPACT, AURORAS SHALL DISPLAY AT HIGHER LATITUDES
STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES
FOLLOW SEVERE SOLAR WX @ SSW FB
Wednesday, September 7, 2011
X 2.1 SOLAR FLARE FROM SUNSPOT 1283
SEVERE SOLARWX
AKSHAY DEORAS
SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTER
THE SUNSPOT AR 1283 HAS HURLED AN X 2.2 SOLAR FLARE AT 2220 UTC,6TH SEPT 2011 AFTER PRODUCING M CLASS FLARE YESTERDAY
THE SOLAR FLARE ALSO CARRIED CORONAL MASS EJECTION WITH IT AS BEING INDICATED BY THE DATAS FROM STEREO SPACECRAFT.
HOWEVER DETAILED ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT CME SHALL PASS AWAY FROM THE EARTH AS CME WAS DIRECTED AT AN ANGLE OF AROUND 110 DEGREE WHERE ANGLE OF EARTH WITH RESPECT TO SUN FOR STEREO A IS AROUND 180 DEGREE
THE EVENT PRODUCED A R3 BLACKOUT AND HAS SENT A STREAM OF CHARGED AND ACCELERATED PROTONS TOWARDS THE EARTH AND MIGHT ONSET A S1 SOLAR RADIATION STORM
THE SOLAR FLARE CAN BE NOTED AS THE BRIGHT MARK NEAR THE CENTRAL SIDE OF THE SUN.
STAY TUNED FOR THE UPDATES
AKSHAY DEORAS
SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTER
THE SUNSPOT AR 1283 HAS HURLED AN X 2.2 SOLAR FLARE AT 2220 UTC,6TH SEPT 2011 AFTER PRODUCING M CLASS FLARE YESTERDAY
THE SOLAR FLARE ALSO CARRIED CORONAL MASS EJECTION WITH IT AS BEING INDICATED BY THE DATAS FROM STEREO SPACECRAFT.
HOWEVER DETAILED ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT CME SHALL PASS AWAY FROM THE EARTH AS CME WAS DIRECTED AT AN ANGLE OF AROUND 110 DEGREE WHERE ANGLE OF EARTH WITH RESPECT TO SUN FOR STEREO A IS AROUND 180 DEGREE
THE EVENT PRODUCED A R3 BLACKOUT AND HAS SENT A STREAM OF CHARGED AND ACCELERATED PROTONS TOWARDS THE EARTH AND MIGHT ONSET A S1 SOLAR RADIATION STORM
THE SOLAR FLARE CAN BE NOTED AS THE BRIGHT MARK NEAR THE CENTRAL SIDE OF THE SUN.
STAY TUNED FOR THE UPDATES
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