SEVERE SOLARWX
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster
The Hyper-active Sunspot 1429 has hurled another Very Major Solar Flare X 5.4 shortly after 12AM GMT,7th March 2012
The X5.4 Solar Flare emission took place beginning at 0002UTC reaching peak 0024UTC and ending at 0040UTC!
NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center also mentioned a X1.3 Solar Flare shortly after the X 5.4 at 0120UTC.Thus TWO STRAIGHT HIGH END SOLAR FLARES
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The X-ray flux reported a sharp peak shortly after 12AM or 0000UTC.
After the solar flare got released, a R3 Radio Blackout was experienced on the sunlit side of the earth which affected largely the High frequency communication as can be seen from the above image of D-RAP
CORONAL MASS EJECTION-
Its generally associated with such high class Solar Flares. The datas from STEREO spacecraft are indicating that there has been a MODERATE Coronal Mass Ejection released from this region after the Solar Flare was emitted.
Though its for the first time in so many years that on Visual observation, it does appear that not a significant CME was hurled after the flare. Even the analyst at Goddard Space Flight Center predicting not a major CME release from it which supports my visual observation through datas for STEREO.
Here is below what the models are indicating about-
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The CME hence shall give a minor blow to the Earth on late period of 9th March 2012 into morning hours of 10th March 2012 GMT.. I don't expect a significant storming from it
Meanwhile, the reports from previous activities of the Sun have appeared today in the form of a G2 Geomagnetic Storm ( MODERATE) due to March 4 2012 M class flare from the sun with the KP index reaching as 6
SOLAR RADIATION STORM
The X 5.4 Solar Flare from today's early morning flare also gave a significant boost to the protons which got elevated in terms of their energies and hence a Solar Radiation Storm of S2 intensity has been set. The datas from the Proton Flux are depicting an increasing trend and hence a high end S2 Solar Radiation Storm which is being witnessed now shall continue for a more while!
Forecast-
More X class and M class Solar Flares are expected from the region 1429 which is over 4 times the size of the earth.
The space weather is expected to be ACTIVE mainly Solar Radiation Storm and Geomagnetic Storm
ALERT_
Sunspot 1429 is turing GEO-EFFECTIVE AND HENCE IS LIKELY TO AFFECT THE EARTH's Space Weather significantly!
Akshay Deoras
Severe Weather Forecaster
The Hyper-active Sunspot 1429 has hurled another Very Major Solar Flare X 5.4 shortly after 12AM GMT,7th March 2012
The X5.4 Solar Flare emission took place beginning at 0002UTC reaching peak 0024UTC and ending at 0040UTC!
NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center also mentioned a X1.3 Solar Flare shortly after the X 5.4 at 0120UTC.Thus TWO STRAIGHT HIGH END SOLAR FLARES
.gif)
The X-ray flux reported a sharp peak shortly after 12AM or 0000UTC.
After the solar flare got released, a R3 Radio Blackout was experienced on the sunlit side of the earth which affected largely the High frequency communication as can be seen from the above image of D-RAP
CORONAL MASS EJECTION-
Its generally associated with such high class Solar Flares. The datas from STEREO spacecraft are indicating that there has been a MODERATE Coronal Mass Ejection released from this region after the Solar Flare was emitted.
Though its for the first time in so many years that on Visual observation, it does appear that not a significant CME was hurled after the flare. Even the analyst at Goddard Space Flight Center predicting not a major CME release from it which supports my visual observation through datas for STEREO.
Here is below what the models are indicating about-
.jpg)
The CME hence shall give a minor blow to the Earth on late period of 9th March 2012 into morning hours of 10th March 2012 GMT.. I don't expect a significant storming from it
Meanwhile, the reports from previous activities of the Sun have appeared today in the form of a G2 Geomagnetic Storm ( MODERATE) due to March 4 2012 M class flare from the sun with the KP index reaching as 6
SOLAR RADIATION STORM
The X 5.4 Solar Flare from today's early morning flare also gave a significant boost to the protons which got elevated in terms of their energies and hence a Solar Radiation Storm of S2 intensity has been set. The datas from the Proton Flux are depicting an increasing trend and hence a high end S2 Solar Radiation Storm which is being witnessed now shall continue for a more while!
Forecast-
More X class and M class Solar Flares are expected from the region 1429 which is over 4 times the size of the earth.
The space weather is expected to be ACTIVE mainly Solar Radiation Storm and Geomagnetic Storm
ALERT_
Sunspot 1429 is turing GEO-EFFECTIVE AND HENCE IS LIKELY TO AFFECT THE EARTH's Space Weather significantly!
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